is partisan what we call special forces these days?
Nah, still irregular*, non-uniformed local forces. But depends who's doing the naming. Defence correspondents are notoriously shit at co-opting names to give their reports juice. That and some are throughly useless.
Could well be trained/support by SF partner force.
It does smell of an incoming UKR push in a couple of weeks - taking out all sorts of high value / important logistical supply bases and resources.
All the new kit due in Ukraine asap.
Better weather approaching.
Russia truly starting to run out of key ammunition and resources.
etc.
I am curious as to what would be the masterplan behind setting up this fake war.
It's to distract everyone from Bill Gates's plan to microchip the global population under the fake Covid vaccine program.
dissonance
Full Member
I am curious as to what would be the masterplan behind setting up this fake war.
Almost as much as how they persuaded Putin to go along with even a fake arse kicking
The two main reasons I see on Twitter are "Biden laundering his money" and "US funding illegal bio-labs". Make of that what you will, but it looks to me like you can see a continuation from previous nonsense inc 'Biden stole the election' and the whole 'covid 19 was grown in a lab' horse pebbles
Apparently there isn’t enough video footage of the the war? Possibly the most ludicrous thing I’ve ever heard 🤣🤣🤣
This war has had the most video coverage in history 🤷♂️
Ukraine should just invite the arseholes pedaling that shit to visit the front line themselves in person. All expenses paid.
Better weather approaching
A thaw means mud, not sure that the new heavier Western tanks will like that!
A thaw means mud, not sure that the new heavier Western tanks will like that!
The suggestion is that most are to sit on the Belarus border to deter...
lowey
Ukraine should just invite the arseholes pedaling that shit to visit the front line themselves in person. All expenses paid.
Oh, that's been happening to one of the guys the BBC report alludes to! I looked on Twitter after googling part of his post on the Beeb to find him.😁
Not the government offering the trip but but aid workers, a journalist etc.
He got all "whataboutery" at that point as people "didn't really understand" what he was saying apparently. Lovely to behold.😂
Looking like Bakhmut is finally about to be lost
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1630608980664778753?t=631ajnH-XKJqXQ3Dg6Pf9w&s=19
The suggestion is that most are to sit on the Belarus border to deter…
Interestingly the apparent attack on the Belarusian airfield doesn't seem to have ilicited a response, even as lukashenko was visiting China (I wonder if this is why they're claiming partisans- to not give Belarus an excuse)
More careless smoking
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1630653837223636994?t=ZU8p8jOJumQpIhbIzWWYmA&s=19
Looking like Bakhmut is finally about to be lost
My suspicion is that Ukraine have been using Bakhmat to lure Russia into squandering their army on something that has no real strategic value.
They’ve just announced sending reinforcements to hold it. I think they would rather hold the line & not have to retake it.
That’s the claim, there are counter suggestions that the reinforcements are to secure the withdrawal. But who TF knows really apart from those making the choices.
Bakhmut is now totemic for both sides despite the lack of any major strategic value.
I still believe Russia will take it, but the cost will be vast and massively disproportionate to what they've achieved it will also leave them facing the far better fortified cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, both of which will be far harder to take than Bahkmut. The longer and harder the Ukranians can make this process the more chance they have of breaking through when their counterattack happens.
The problem for the Ukrainians is to work out how to balance the desire to inflict the maximum damage on the Russians without them ending up with a large number of troops surrounded and losing them en masse.
Those reinforcements may be going to keep the routes open so that that when the order to abandon Bakhmut comes they can get as many people and as much kit out as possible.
Edit: piemonster got there first on the last point.
They’ve just announced sending reinforcements to hold it. I think they would rather hold the line & not have to retake it.
This may be another feint, of course
Well of course, the last thing the Ukrainians want to do is give the Russians any notice that they're about to pull back out of Bakhmut, they'd throw everything at the last road out, it'd be carnage.
A orderly retreat with an enemy on your heels is one of the hardest things a military can do, if the Ukrainians can avoid encirclement and get the most of the majority of their troops and kit out of there intact it will be a major achievement.
They very successful suckered the Russians into expending significant manpower and resources into taking Severodonetsk last year, which certainly contributed to them being able to mount counter offensives in Kharkiv and Luhansk. Given their strategic superiority thus far I think it’s safe to assume that they’re essentially engaged in similar fashion here. Let the Russians spend months punching themselves into exhaustion and then hit them hard when they’re least able to cope. Also worth factoring in the terrain. West of Bakhmut is high ground and narrow valleys, which the UA control. Taking that will be a sight worse than Bakhmut itself, a town which is commonly agreed to have minimal strategic importance.
In summary lots of smoke and mirrors but I think that the UA have been happy to let the RF spaff men, money and munitions on trying to take a relatively inconsequential town, whilst using the time to build defenses, enhance capability and prepare the ground for a spring counteroffensive.
A GOP useful idiot spouting anti Ukraine, Chinese propaganda reveals he is an idiot whilst questioning a Pentagon official.
I love his final response which confirms he is an idiot.😁
Video on CNN.
To avoid trashing the “Time” thread.
Is Roger still getting on famously with Gilmours wife?
https://twitter.com/PollySamson/status/1622513762602205184?s=20
I think Dark Side of the Moon and Wish You Were Here are great albums. After that, Water's ego just got the better of him. He just seems to have gotten worse and worse over the decades. I have zero respect for the man.
Excellent article for anyone who believes they can predict how Putin will react to losing.
https://michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/the-guessing-game-about-what-putin
Not sure what to make of this
“This will result in legal consequences once they are able to be held responsible before the state bodies,” Vucevic told Radio Free Europe
Laws being in place, would have thought theyd have just dealt with it rather than making a public rebuke. Or maybe an agreed move to further negatively impact Wagner? Especially on RFE.
The criticism marks a rare public rebuke from the Serbian leader towards Russia – a steadfast ally of the Balkan country.
Not sure what to make of this
IMHO it's more a rebuke of the RF than Wagner.
Serbia is hoping to join the EU in a couple of years having been a candidate since 2012. Serbia condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine but has resisted imposing EU sanctions to date, although it is preventing the use of Serbia to bypass sanctions.
Serbia has always been dependent on Russia for oil, gas and weaponry and isn't seeking NATO membership, largely because NATO forces (KFOR) still keep the peace in Kosovo after NATO ejected Serbian forces. Kosovo had declared independence from Serbia and Russia has always supported the Serbian argument.
If Serbia wants EU membership then it needs to impose sanctions on Russia and recognise Kosovo's independence. The public rebuke is evidence of Serbia slowly walking the tightrope away from a Russia which miscalculated recently by comparing the Kosovo situation to the Luhansk and Donetsk (Donbas) regions. Russia said that the Donbas could declare independence legitimately from Ukraine, as Kosovo did from Serbia. Serbians weren't too impressed by that!
Well if that is the case, I can add it to the list that now includes Russia (Surging Lavatory) being very publicly laughed at in India.
I wonder if the Ukrainian slow withdrawal from Bakhmut is a ruse to decimate the Wagner group. Lure them into a trap.
If Wagner are mercenaries could we not pay more than the Russians?
Business is business.
Excellent article for anyone who believes they can predict how Putin will react to losing.
That was a great article, thanks for posting!
It's very refreshing to read an opinion from someone actually qualified to have one. Very rare in these new, social media orientated times!
If Wagner are mercenaries could we not pay more than the Russians?
Business is business.
They’re not really mercenaries in that sense, they answer ultimately to Putin but at enough distance to permit deniability for their actions.
That way they can operate well outside of anything like the Geneva convention and the Kremlin will just shrug. (Not just Russia that does that tbf)
(Can’t actually vouch for CSIS, it’s just one of many returned articles of Wagner in Africa)
More like subcontractors.
Sure I’ve seen reports of the guy heading up Wagner actually being in ukraine and filming stuff. Now, if a smart bomb could be dropped on him that might make a difference, if they really are such a bunch of mercenaries as described you would expect them to quit if their paymaster is taken out
the guy heading up Wagner actually being in ukraine and filming stuff. Now, if a smart bomb could be dropped on him that might make a difference, if they really are such a bunch of mercenaries as described you would expect them to quit if their paymaster is taken out
You'd think so, but he'd have to be pretty dumb to advertise his position 'behind enemy lines' and paint a target on his head.
Another possibility is, it's misdirection, which kinda sounds more plausible given the performance so far.
*Ive not watched this but…*
Perun just released a video looking at Wagner
*Ive not watched this but…*
Perun just released a video looking at Wagner
I'll def give that a watch, when I have an hour to spare! I find his videos amongst the most informative and well researched stuff out there..
Interesting article on the beeb this lunch time about Wagner, not sure what to make of it, interesting angle about wagner maybe being 'setup'
If there is any part of truth about the distrust between the various elements of russia's military its no wonder they aren't doing particularly well
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64859780
Hard to know how much is politicking or propaganda from Wagner& Russian military
There are periodic statements from Zelensky saying that Ukrainian forces are under pressure in Bakhmut. He's not daft, and you don't normally say such things where the enemy will hear them. My guess is that those statements are partly to encourage Western allies to give more weapons, and partly to give hope to the RF and Wagner forces; Ukraine has to fight them somewhere and would prefer them to keep wasting men and ammo on a non-strategic target.
I doubt, however, that Wagner are doing the same kind of thing in reverse. They're just in an internal PR war with the regular RF forces.
That's my take on it too. There may well be a bit of an ammo shortage, but there does seem to be a weird powerbase thing going on with Putin as well- he has a track record of promoting the most loyal, rather than most competent, generals.
A thread about Nazis, particularly one Nazi that keeps popping up in European countries.
https://twitter.com/VindiceLibertas/status/1629940774421909505?t=sE1P00i5dnVmZTI7vtNfqg&s=19
This is all over Twitter. A captured Ukrainian soldier, shot dead seconds after this still image from a video, for calmly taking a last drag from his cigarette and defiantly saying 'glory to Ukraine'. I suspect he knew full well what was going to happen.
I've only (thankfully) seen the stills. Seemingly the video is easy to stumble on if you're not careful. I don't want to see that shit.
Russians videoed this war crime then gleefully uploaded it to the internet. The Telegram channels are apparently full of Russians saying they should do this to all Ukrainian captives and worse.
They revel in this. Devoid of any humanity and absolutely rotten to the core.
https://twitter.com/brokenpixelua/status/1632763119255552002?t=0bUtot-O9jIJrJuAEoDViA&s=19
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1632741691030470656?t=Bau62g9UgRnMuqgT1a87Lg&s=19
Edit
I wonder if the Ukrainian slow withdrawal from Bakhmut is a ruse to decimate the Wagner group. Lure them into a trap
It's all ruses, smoke and mirrors.
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated at the end of the day on March 6 that he has ordered reinforcements to Bakhmut" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
It's interesting that Bakhmut is being hailed as a "great strategic success" by Ukraine. There are three levels of war and the highest is strategic, which is akin to a national policy of decimating the poorly-equipped mobilised RF troops so that Russia is having to commit better quality forces for more of the same.
Geographically, Bakhmut isn't in any way strategic so this talk of reinforcements could be a ruse to cover the movements for withdrawal, but who out here knows?
Wagner PMC and Russian Forces are pretty well intertwined; the PMCs allow the Russian State deniability in various respects but are clearly armed and supplied by the state.
The link between Prigozhin and Wagner wasn't publicly acknowledged by Prigozhin until September when the tide of this war turned and President Putin was criticised more openly
I thought officially PMCs were illegal in Russia?what’s a few laws amongst dictators anyway.
I thought officially PMCs were illegal in Russia? What’s a few laws amongst dictators anyway
They are but... "The Russian debate on PMCs gathered momentum in April 2012, when Vladimir Putin, then still prime minister, in his answer to a question from the Duma floor, supported the idea to organize PMCs in Russia (RIA Novosti, April 11, 2012)." https://jamestown.org/program/russian-private-military-companies-redwater/
My God, that poor Ukrainian solder.
Those Russians are scum. Utter scum.
The Perun video is well worth watching regards Wagner
there does seem to be a weird powerbase thing going on with Putin as well- he has a track record of promoting the most loyal, rather than most competent, generals
That's what dictators do – keep the most loyal close by their side and remove those that may pose a risk to their authority/regime. Just like a certain Austrian in the 1930s/40s...
Confirmation that the US supplied a small number of the extended range version of JDAM to Ukraine, about 3 weeks ago. It's speculated that they may have modified Mig 29s to use them as they previously did with US supplied HARM missiles JDAM-ER has a claimed range of up 45 miles if lobbed correctly by the releasing aircraft. A useful new precision weapon in their arsenal.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/winged-jdam-smart-bombs-are-now-operational-in-ukraine
The Telegram channels are apparently full of Russians saying they should do this to all Ukrainian captives and worse.
They revel in this. Devoid of any humanity and absolutely rotten to the core.
Ok look, I don't condone shooting people of any kind but don't start throwing around words like 'they' in this context please. That's exactly how we end in this situation in the first place. It looks like you're trying to make out that all Russians are scum, whereas in this instance all you know is that some posters on Telegram are scum.
It looks like you’re trying to make out that all Russians are scum
Nope. Absolutely not. That's not what I wrote and not what I meant. I was specifically referring to the Telegram posters and implicitly to the executioners of an unarmed POW. The 'they' you seem to have taken offence to referred to the preceding sentence. I though that was obvious, but if not I'm happy to clarify.
Its wouldn't be a bad thing to stay off Twitter for a couple of days, that video is being shared widely
Nope. Absolutely not. That’s not what I wrote and not what I meant. I was specifically referring to the Telegram posters and implicitly to the executioners of an unarmed POW.
Ok good, I feel it's important to stress this and not end up falling into the trap of linking Russians in general to this madness, which is easy to do mentally.
Whilst that may be true, every Russian I’ve met was an arrogant, entitled pr@@k! I’m afraid they need to prove otherwise after this to get anything from me.
Definitely meet to qualify my post!
It was aimed at the Russian military in central but specifically the ones committing atrocities looks these.
The people that did and are standing up to Putin in Russia are absolutely amazing and are an order of magnitude braver than I would be.
This is some smart thinking on the part of Trump. Let's face it, all wars could be ended quickly by just giving aggressors whatever they demand. Only downside is that the world would be run by murderous tyrants, but that's a small price to pay for being able to build condominiums in Moscow.
https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1633217600326090752
Intense footage of a surrounded Ukrainian position
https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1633451203655860229?t=IYvvogc-2wXJhCLqmj1fhg&s=19
I guess in that situation you need whatever laughs you can get
Pretty concerning: in the US cows kill more people than bears.
It looks like things are getting heated in Georgia. Protests against new laws which are seen as Russian control / ethos. I note EU flags being waved.
We've mentioned earlier in this thread about other countries who Russia currently exerts control of looking to see if this is a moment to either align more with Russia, or seek to lose Russia...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64882475
It’s now coming into the worst time of year for Russian forces to be operating in Ukraine, as the ground is starting to thaw and turn into a sticky swamp. Russian tank and armoured forces crews don’t seem to understand how to deal with it, which really suits the home teams - lines of bogged-down decades old armour sitting waiting to have drones drop grenades down the turret hatch. Or for Ukrainian tankies punch holes through them.
I thought Ru was supposed to be running out of missles?
It seems they make/acquire a bunch of them over a period of time and launch them all in a couple of widespread attacks, mostly for propaganda purposes
I thought Ru was supposed to be running out of missles?
Where there's a will... https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/03/russian-ship-loaded-with-military-equipment-enters-black-sea/
TL:DR Russia does have stocks of missiles but they aren't really suitable/available for deployment against Ukraine.
Russia's hypersonic Tsirkon missiles aboard the Admiral Gorshkov would cause problems if they live up to the hype.
The Tsirkon hasn't really progressed beyond test flights. It's radar-absorbing plasma cloud and Mach 8 capability would make the missile undetectable and President Putin deployed the ship in January to the Med where its missiles could reach Ukraine.
It continued sailing to a joint naval exercise off S. Africa and didn't fire any Tsirkons. The Gorshkov also carries Kalibr cruise missiles.
To reach Ukraine from the Med, missiles would need to overfly other countries and would risk a NATO escalation; maybe the undetectability and 600 mile range is over-stated. Kalibr missiles would also be detectable
And while I'm on a naval theme/missiles
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/03/no-russian-base-in-black-sea-is-safe-ukrainian-attack-shows/
Russia deployed a Pantsir AA system to Tuapse a couple of days ago ^^
Google it and you'll see that they stuck it in the middle of a bunch of dockyard cranes where its radar will see, well, cranes 🙂
Interesting link about the cargo ship. Humanitarian aid to syria, and then what seems pulling missiles from Ru stock there. I suppose only silver lining is Ru is reducing its capability in syria (and presumably other sites), and hadn't seen that drone attack either.
Iran has a presence in Syria too
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1634303481036042242?t=piEsms5UwWhwkiqjDY994g&s=19
Interesting thread about the state of the Russian mobiks
This fits with what a lot of military analysts have been saying - Ukraine is degrading Russian forces in preparation for a new offensive.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1634664027530964992
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1634664032467660800
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1634937651496370177
Ukraine is degrading Russian forces in preparation for a new offensive
ISW assessments suggest that the Russian MOD "is likely seizing the opportunity to deliberately expend both elite and convict Wagner forces in Bakhmut in an effort to weaken Prigozhin and derail his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin. The Russian MoD had been increasingly restricting Prigozhin’s ability to recruit convicts and secure ammunition, forcing Prigozhin to publicly recognize his dependency on the Russian MoD." https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Ukraine is being helped by multiple Russian internal power struggles, you couldn't make it up. This has lasted for months with various changes of leadership: currently Valery Gerasimov, Sergei Surovikin before him, who succeeded Alexander Dvornikov...
Ukraine can afford to let Russia implode while continuing their fight
It is surprising Prigozhin hasn't fallen out of a window if its true he is looking to replace Putin.
Perun has released a new video looking at the economic war.
Really interesting one this.
It is surprising Prigozhin hasn’t fallen out of a window if its true he is looking to replace Putin.
Well that would be nice, preferably one sitting above some pointy jaggy railings.
US drone just hit a Russian plane in the black sea. Or visa versa.