Lots of reports of a large explosion in (or over) Sevastopol. Russia claims to have shot down a drone. From some of the eyewitness reports, this sounds feasible:
"KyivIndependent: The outlet said that a few seconds before the explosion was heard, Krym Realii correspondents heard a sound “similar to the launch of a rocket.”
However, the mere fact that Ukraine can now send drones so deep into Crimea and Russia is going to make the Russians very twitchy. I bet they are seriously regretting their profligate waste of air defence missiles in the ground attack mode.
UK's ordered thousands more NLAWs - link
I'm guessing that there will be other contracts for 155mm shells (just checked, according to the Telegraph there is - link) and any other consumables that we're supplying to Ukraine e.g. Brimstone.
Russia's going to lose a production war sooner rather than later.
However, the mere fact that Ukraine can now send drones so deep into Crimea and Russia is going to make the Russians very twitchy.
Really interesting short analysis (4min 45s) by Peter Zeihan, of what this means strategically for Ukraine. Including his assessment of the Russian target that is most vulnerable and which would have the biggest effect. Spoiler - it's an oil distribution hub fed by pipelines in Siberia serving lots of regional depots which would apparently have a real impact on Russian domestic supply.
Another vid by the same chap, from about 8 moths ago.
Spoiler – it’s an oil distribution hub fed by pipelines in Siberia serving lots of regional depots which would apparently have a real impact on Russian domestic supply.
This is mentioned on here too. about 20mins in.
Siberia, even the closest point is about five times the distance from Ukraine to Moscow. They'd need something intercontinental to go that distance.
Siberia, even the closest point is about five times the distance from Ukraine to Moscow. They’d need something intercontinental to go that distance.
The facility in question (Samara) receives oil from the Siberian oil lines via pipelines, but is itself only 500 miles from Ukraine (according to Zeihan's map). Well within claimed range of the Ukrainian UAV. No ICBMs required.
Just FedEx it
Shopping centre fire and explosion in Moscow. I suspect this is 'just' a fire with some gas cylinders or similar exploding and nothing to do with the war. Quite spectacular though! There's an interesting video further down the thread, where someone wanders round filming 3 months into the war, showing how empty it was due to sanctions. Some speculation on the thread that it might have been an insurance job because of the loss of revenue.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1601094657748144128?s=20&t=jnCVrY1FYFXbUXwSGWwrAg
Some speculation on the thread that it might have been an insurance job because of the loss of revenue.
That was my first thought too.
The US has endorsed Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia, adjusting its more neutral stance of a couple of days ago https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-drone-warfare-russia-732jsshpx
This might open up the supply of longer-range missiles as well
The US DoD has released another pile of military aid https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3241679/275-million-in-additional-assistance-for-ukraine/ but nothing specifically longer range
President Putin has been playing the protracted nature of this conflict recently, no doubt hoping to split western support as winter bites, so this should slow that rhetoric
It's also the opinion of UK intelligence services that another delivery of Iranian drones to Russia has arrived (MoD Twitter)
An article discussing Russia's relationship with politicians and the war in Ukraine. She is Berlin-based so looks at Germany mainly, but some interesting general insights too https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/security-expert-we-need-an-international-investigation-of-germanys-russia-ties-li.296074
A neo-Nazi paramilitary group linked to the Kremlin has asked its members to submit intelligence on border and military activity in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, raising concerns over whether far-right Russian groups are planning an attack on Nato countries.
A couple of military barracks struck within Russia. Got to be a big blow severely affecting morale. It’s only been a day since the US said it was ok with targets within Russia being attacked. Also a shift in strategy from ammo dumps to barracks.
Mike Martin is predicting New Year's fireworks.
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1602614881320148992
He agrees with me 👍🤪 so Ukraine will probably do something unexpected!
How about a river crossing in the far west first, to draw forces away from a Melitopol push, or actually the opposite would work too, maybe?
Anyone seen verification of this?
https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-loongson-ukraine-war-weapons-1766687
Beijing has reportedly banned the supply of military-grade processors to Russia produced by Chinese company Loongson, in a potential setback to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
Good news if true 👍
It's difficult to know how important that is given that the ban isn't specific to just Russia, it's against export of the chips in general and also this from the article:
""This ban is not likely to cause any more severe disruptions, given that Russia has been suffering from this shortage for almost a decade, leading to adaptation," Miron said."
It's one of those articles where the headline is designed to imply more than is actually in the text :(. Starting to get fed up with those (not a complaint against you piemonster, rather against the headline writers)
I imagine Ukraine and the US are trying to figure out what targets Ukraine can strike inside Russia (using Ukrainian drones rather than long range US missiles) without triggering a nuclear response from Russia. Hitting obviously military targets for now but maybe some dual-use stuff after then critical infrastructure.
If Ukraine can push to Melitopol as their main Winter offensive and also hit the Kerch strait bridge again that leaves Crimea massively exposed and Russia would certainly have to withdraw from the Kherson oblast. I can see Crimea being a red line for Putin though.
I thought it was more that the US did not want to get involved in targetting to avoid a response against it/NATO. Which is why it has been reluctant to supply longer range precision weapons which might lead it into getting so involved.
I think as long as they dont use NATO supplied weapons over the russian border then It's kinda check-mate - putin can't claim NATO agression.
Nevermind that russia has litteraly invaded Ukraine, but Ukraine is not NATO.
I can see Crimea being a red line for Putin though.
I can see a red line for everyone else, being when russia suddenly decided half of Ukarine belonged to it, and proceeded to bomb the crap out of Civillians and national infrastucture.
Crimea is fair game for ukraine to push into, if you ask me.
I thought it was more that the US did not want to get involved in targetting to avoid a response against it/NATO. Which is why it has been reluctant to supply longer range precision weapons which might lead it into getting so involved.
I'm not sure there's any evidence of NATO weapons, or NATO weapons supplied to ukraine being used over the border.
Only that the US isn't condeming ukraine hitting back at russia, and why would they?
Hopefully Ukraine is bright enough to be just using it's own weapons to strike over the border into russia. Leaving the donated gear from the EU/US for home defence. Playing Putin at his own game.
A US "defence source" told The Times, "It’s up to them how they use their weapons. But when they use the weapons we have supplied, the only thing we insist on is that the Ukrainian military conform to the international laws of war and to the Geneva conventions" https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-drone-warfare-russia-732jsshpx
The UK has taken this position since April, "Firstly, it's Ukrainians that take the targeting decision, not the people who manufacture or export the kit in the first place. And secondly, it is entirely legitimate to go after targets in the depth of your opponents to disrupt their logistics and supply lines." James Heappey MP
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61226431
The key is defending Ukraine rather than attacking Russia. If striking military targets in Russia stops attacks in Ukraine then it's defensive, what you can't do within international law is hit civilian targets...
The considerations have changed since Russia rowed back on deploying nuclear weapons
I do wonder if the AFU will try a way out there strike Something like a combined parachute drop behind the Russian lines and simultaneous amphibious assult across the Dneipro river Cause mass confusion and split the forces in the area. With modern manportables paras have alot less to fear from armour, till youve fired them all of course.
The mud , if it ever freezes deep enough for tanks not to chew it up , is not going to help.
Probably better to keep hold of what they have , rotate battle weary guys out and home if possible , keep the front lines well supported and continue attrition on teh russians by way of drone bombing or direct fire artilery. Frozen soldiers do not fire back so maybe the weather will have a big impact on the fighting capability of the remaining Rusians. Prob tempt them into surrender by frying bacon along the front wwhen its slighty windy.
Prob tempt them into surrender by frying bacon along the front wwhen its slighty windy.
Remotely of course, to attract bacon-seeking missiles, identify their source and then disable it with your anti-bacon-seeking missile missile.
anti-bacon-seeking missile
BLT - Bacon Locating Technology
This is claimed to not be satire, but to have aired on Russian TV back in 2015. Either way, it's pretty hilarious.
https://twitter.com/justartsndstuff/status/1603113548267372544
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-12-15/amazon-ukraine-war-cloud-data
Since the day Russia launched its invasion Feb. 24, Amazon has been working closely with the Ukrainian government to download essential data and ferry it out of the country in suitcase-sized solid-state computer storage units called Snowball Edge, then funneling the data into Amazon’s cloud computing system.
The data, 10 million gigabytes so far, represent “critical information infrastructure. This is core for operation of the economy, of the tax system, of banks, and the government overall,” he said. The data also include property records whose safekeeping can help prevent theft of Ukrainian homes, businesses, and land.
Some info on Snowball Edge here https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/aws-snowball-edge-more-storage-local-endpoints-lambda-functions/
ISW has been analysing Russia and the war in Ukraine since February
They're becoming increasingly sure that Russia will launch an attack from Belarus towards Kyiv.
Russia has been tightening its grip on media and public information to quell dissent while increasing its forces in Belarus
Their analysis is that current well-publicised Russian air and ground movements don't amount to a serious threat yet and Belarus is split by a large marsh area with Ukraine's border that would limit ground movement.
Russia is also concentrating its forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk
February anniversary assault?
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
I found this interesting on the wire this morning. gps being interfered with in russia, presumably to prevent ukr drones being effective
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/gps-jamming-interference-russia-ukraine
From that ISW report -
"Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022".
Must be grim being a Russian recruit dug in for the frozen winter in UKR only kitted out with a army issue t-shirt and flip flops knowing they are just chuck a gps guided HIMARS on you now and then. Russians are going to have to do something just to avoid that being the only statistic on the winter fight.
Russians are going to have to do something just to avoid that being the only statistic on the winter fight.
And there's 300,000 fresh Russian "recruits" currently training, all due to arrive at the battlefield in February 2023. I know it's gone quiet, but I suspect they're not staying in warmth and comfort of a modern barracks, or enjoying challenging outdoor excercise and excercises, with shiny warm winter kit and reliable weapons with lots of ammunition to practice with. A fair few of them appear to be drunks or criminals (or both) and most are really not keen.
And in February some general is due to line them up on a frozen swamp edge in Belarus and ask them to run in, because Ukraine and glory is ahead of them....
Yep. That's going to go rather badly.
And there’s 300,000 fresh Russian “recruits” currently training, all due to arrive at the battlefield in February 2023.
Well if that's common knowledge I guess Ukraine will begin their offensive in January.
I suspect the 300,000 is a made-up figure intended to build support for supplying more weapons, but also used by Putin's useful idiots to argue for cutting support. Either way, the idea that Russia is going to have 300,000 trained soldiers with decent equipment in a couple of months is a joke.
https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1603830447494266880
Aye, they've proved countless times that they can't adequately move, supply, arm, utilise, lead or train the forces they have. Poor bloody infantry is pretty much the only thing they already have enough of- but logistics is expensive and hard, and leadership and morale and training takes too long. So maybe it looks like more guys is the answer but really it only makes things worse.
I reckon the 300000 thing is just more bullshit frankly but if it's not, it's like having a hammer and treating every problem like a screw.
Yep. That’s going to go rather badly
TLDR: The build-up on both fronts is designed to split support for Ukraine within Europe
Poland continues to push for tougher sanctions and wanted a lower G7 oil price cap, Hungary's PM Orban is obstructive to EU assistance for Ukraine and negotiated sanction exemptions. Countries with the largest economies (and further away from the Russian border), e.g. France and Germany just want it all to go away so that normal service can resume
If Russia can show that they are determined to continue ad infinitum, while controlling their domestic population, then they hope that the EU will fracture and that Russia can gain Luhansk and Donetsk. If that costs thousands of lives then so be it
Russia has massive problems domestically because their working age male population has either fled or been mobilised and their exemptions on mobilisation didn't include most of the occupations needed to maintain normal life.
It was clear in September that Russia already had record employment levels, where will they find more workers?
Russia's only hope is this overt show of determination, because on current form they won't win the fighting
Excellent story on one of Russia's best brigades. They suffered 35% losses in the first three months and never had a chance to regroup and recover. Now it's barely more than a rabble of untrained conscripts.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1604018360970272769
Excellent in depth review of Russia's failings in Ukraine by the New York Times. It's a long read, but well worth it!
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html
Flung to the ground, a drafted Russian soldier named Mikhail recalled opening his eyes to a shock: the shredded bodies of his comrades littering the field. Shrapnel had sliced open his belly, too. Desperate to escape, he said, he crawled to a thicket of trees and tried to dig a ditch with his hands.
Of the 60 members of his platoon near the eastern Ukrainian town of Pavlivka that day in late October, about 40 were killed, said Mikhail, speaking by phone from a military hospital outside Moscow. Only eight, he said, escaped serious injury.
“This isn’t war,” Mikhail said, struggling to speak through heavy, liquid breaths. “It’s the destruction of the Russian people by their own commanders.”
From that Times article
It also has this, which if true does actually show they expected victory in days
Russian invasion plans, obtained by The New York Times, show that the military expected to sprint hundreds of miles across Ukraine and triumph within days. Officers were told to pack their dress uniforms and medals in anticipation of military parades in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Something some hadn’t wholly believed in at times
Meanwhile, in Luhansk credible reports emerging that UA have cut highway 66 north of Kreminna. So not just having it under fire control, but actual physical control. This is hugely important as the highway is one of the main logistics routes into Severodonetsk (remember the battles for the RF to take the city?) and into the Donbas front lines.
If true, this means the RF are going to find supporting and supplying their forces even harder than it already is. In addition the UA are closing in on surrounding Kreminna, if they take it then they not only control the road, they also control the railway that runs South from Svatove to Kreminna and through to Severodonetsk and beyond.
On that basis wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the UA effectively cut off Severodonetsk and a chunk of the Donbas sometime soon. Which would effectively force the RF into another Kherson..
It also has this, which if true does actually show they expected victory in days
Which wasnt unreasonable at the time. There were quite a few in the west who believed the same thing
If you look back all the commentary was maybe there will be a war but if there is it would be over quick although it might then end up as a guerrilla conflict.
The weapons sent at the time seems to indicate even the western intelligence/defence departments believed this. It was all infantry weapons which could make things really unpleasant for an occupation army but could also be hidden away easily eg man portable rockets/missiles vs vehicle mounted weapons.
Is it just me, but my Twitter feed has a lot less UA stuff.
Something some hadn’t wholly believed in at times
To be fair, it was difficult to believe that the Russian commanders could be so utterly incompetent. It's obvious now, but the scale of corruption in the Russian military is stunning. It really is difficult to comprehend how badly led Russia is, there are people now who still seem to believe that this is all some grand strategic plan to attrit the Ukrainian army and then send in a huge reserve army that has been hoarding all the good equipment and food and will sweep the Ukrainians before it.
The railway from Svatove runs south from Kupyansk on the Oskil river, which was captured in the big push in September rendering it useless. The Donbas is now supplied using E-W train lines.
It will be interesting to see how effective the new line of fortifications the RF have built is.
Is it just me, but my Twitter feed has a lot less UA stuff.
Probably worth checking the key accounts you follow to make sure you still are, I "unfollowed" a few, without actually unfollowing them myself.
Is it just me, but my Twitter feed has a lot less UA stuff
Same, there's been a massive drop off
Same, there’s been a massive drop off
Yep, there are a lot of comments on twitter about it as well. The info still seems to be there but you need to hunt it out a bit more actively
Here's a worthy cause I thought I would share with you guys.
This bakery in Kyiv, originally set up to help people with learning difficulties, is now baking bread for free to give to the front line and areas devastated by the war. They are baking between blackouts and then literally risking their lives delivering it. Humbling stuff.
https://instagram.com/goodbread_fromgoodpeople
https://eng.goodbread.com.ua/
Right now they are crowdfunding for a generator so they can keep baking through power cuts.
https://send.monobank.ua/jar/8YPxVCi1RT
Zelensky addresses the defenders in Bakhmut, currently the location of the fiercest fighting of the war. This is what leadership looks like. Whilst Putler cowers in Moscow.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1605237743885459456?s=20&t=RFQX_XzAIVhSlSZLsZiPZA
Yep, there are a lot of comments on twitter about it as well. The info still seems to be there but you need to hunt it out a bit more actively
Musk is pro-Russia in all but name, so make of that what you will!
Grim reading
It's really hard to understand Putins thinking on this one. "We are not to blame"...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64055018?zephr-top-banner
^^^ utterly deluded. Weapons grade cognitive dissonance.
Its just trying to reinforce the victim narrative for Russia whilst removing agency from former WARPAC members when it comes to NATO. Mostly for the internal market IMO. Playing the NATO is Imperialism card is doing the rounds, despite all members joining via elected representatives making a choice.
The only country pushing others to join NATO is Russia.
Ah, the Withnail defence.
(not mine BTW, plundered it from the first comment)
He just believes it's his divine right to own Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe, and subject millions of people into his crappy little oppressive regime, keep them poverty and allow them to only exist in nothing but a dull grey and depressed world where nothing works properly, just like the USSR did before it collapsed.
"For years, we tried to build good-neighbourly relations with Ukraine, offering loans and cheap energy, but it did not work.
Lol, I wonder why?
There's nothing to accuse us of. We've always seen Ukrainians as a brotherly people and I still think so
yeh right, 'cause everyone throws missiles at their brothers, it's normal isn't it.
President Putin added there was no limit to the amount of money Russia was willing to spend.
That's how/why the USSR collapsed.
he's such a massive 🔔🔚 it's beyond comprehension.
The only country pushing others to join NATO is Russia
Haha!
Thats pretty much the deal tho.
Given the choice, they chose the security NATO offers against Russia. There is no other reason for them to join, there are no other threats present in central and eastern europe that would warrant membership of a major military alliance.
Same for Finland and Sweden, they applied for membership as a result of Russias actions.
We’ve always seen Ukrainians as a brotherly people
...but I want to be their Big Brother.
It’s really hard to understand Putins thinking on this one.
Not really. Narcissist finds any way to justify his actions to get what he wants, plausible to people who want to believe it. Happens all the time on a smaller scale, and occasionally on this large scale. Classic dictator playbook material.
yeh right, ’cause everyone throws missiles at their brothers, it’s normal isn’t it.
It seems to be The Way in Russia.
President Putin added there was no limit to the amount of money Russia was willing to spend.
Theres a subtle difference between how much you're willing to spend and how much you've actually got to spend. Theres no limit to how much I'm willing to spend on really, really good medjool dates. But the amount of money I'm actually able to spend on dates is a much more finite sum.
still seams to be the case that Putin wants Ukraine and more.
Really the west has to stop Russian or Putins wishes to re shape Europe.
I honestly don't think Poland would stomach Russian military being so close.
Once this Ukraine thing is done and dusted, it’ll be a long, long time (if ever) before Russia will be able to present a credible, military threat to NATO. Its conventional army is essentially kaput & even before sanctions it didn’t have an economy capable of spending what would be needed. Now the need is many, many times greater and the ability to fulfil that is hugely degraded.
In other news, more and more chatter that Kreminna is in danger of going the same way as Lyman, with the UA pushing NE from Bilohorivka and ESE from Zhytlivka. This would effectively mean the end of Russia in Severodonetsk and would allow the UA to hit the flank of the Donbas frontline. No wonder Vlad said that things were tricky right now. He’s a dead man walking, and I think he’s finally starting to understand that..
I honestly don’t think Poland would stomach Russian military being so close.
Itll be interesting to see if theres any longer term change to how Europe (EU) is led following this, the Visegrad group in particular is taking no sh!t.
I have a feeling the Zelensky/Biden meeting has been choreographed to make a big announcement.
Its just trying to reinforce the victim narrative for Russia whilst removing agency from former WARPAC members when it comes to NATO. Mostly for the internal market IMO.
This, but also, he's been extremely isolated for years and he dismisses any advisors who give him advice that he doesn't like. He's surrounded by people who just tell him what he wants to hear, I'm pretty sure that he really was surprised that Ukrainians resisted the invasion.
This, but also, he’s been extremely isolated for years and he dismisses any advisors who give him advice that he doesn’t like. He’s surrounded by people who just tell him what he wants to hear, I’m pretty sure that he really was surprised that Ukrainians resisted the invasion
This.
The staged advisory meeting just before they ‘officially recognised’ the breakaway republics is fascinating because there’s one guy there even more nervous and jittery than the rest. He even gets quietly chastised by Vlad for getting it wrong after he stumbles over his words. Apparently he was a senior guy in the FSB, responsible for creating, training and arming a fifth column in Ukraine and particularly Kyiv. Said column would rise up when the RF crossed the border, seize control of key infrastructure in Kyiv (and other cities), arrest Zhelensky and others and suppress any internal resistance. An important component of the invasion plan.
This was a large, well organised, well equipped cadre of Russian supporters - who in turn represented a large portion of the population sympathetic to Russia - who were ready to leap into action.
Except they didn’t exist.
Our man in the FSB had created a fake network, and all the money needed to recruit, train, equip and support this large network was resting in his account.
Hence his nerves as he is about to be well and truly rumbled.
He disappeared a week or so after the invasion.
Obviously he wasn’t the only military / security services apparatchik robbing the army blind, but it does illustrate just how Putin could easily be living in a rosy world of quick wins and victory being just round the corner.
But even he now knows at least some of the extent to which he’s in the soup and he’s clever enough to be scared
But even he now knows at least some of the extent to which he’s in the soup and he’s clever enough to be scared
He's building his public defence and buying time. In May, Sergei Lavrov said that Sweden and Finland joining NATO wasn't a problem https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-says-finland-sweden-joining-nato-makes-no-big-difference-2022-05-17/ This wasn't the first such announcement by senior Russians
Sergey Shoigu announced yesterday in Russian media that they're responding to counter the threat posed by an expanding NATO by forming a new force in NW Russia
He also announced plans to expand Russian forces massively, change the organisation and recruit 695,000 volunteers. They're basically announcing a return to the 20th century, which will appeal to many of those critical of the current appalling state of their military and its performance in Ukraine that became obvious in the summer
Nobody seems to have addressed the problem of how this will be achieved given sanctions, the economy, the loss of their most experienced troops in battle and the mobilisation that chased 100,000 Russians into Georgia.
When the smoke and mirrors clear, expect prominent Russians to be on a plane to somewhere sympathetic
But even he now knows at least some of the extent to which he’s in the soup and he’s clever enough to be scared
The thing to remember is, like all bullies, he's worried about being found out, not the fact he is a violent bully.
Nobody seems to have addressed the problem of how this will be achieved
Step 1. Announce the plan completed.
Step 2. Announce that the plan is being implemented.
Step 3. Announce that the plan has been successfully completed.
Step 4. Obtain residence in safe countries for your children so they can enjoy all the money you siphoned off from the project.
Not sure if its just media hype but zelensky has got to be the closest I've ever seen to a proper 'leader' or 'hero' in my time. I'm sure he has his bad points too which aren't reported on.
I can't think of a single recent british pm which would have done what he's done
War either makes or breaks people, Winston Churchill's political career was essentially over when Hitler's rise to power gave him a new lease of life. That's not to say he wasn't the right person in the right place at the right time, he absolutely was, but without WW2 he'd be a historical footnote.
Prior to February Zelensky could well have ended up as the guy semi-famous for being shaken down by Trump for dirt on the Bidens, his popularity at home was on the rocks and he was unlikely to get a second term.
Now they'll be building statues of him, quite the turnaround.
For all the cynicism surrounding politics I still feel that, faced with a true clear and immediate existential threat most democracies and their leaders would react in a similar fashion.
Fortunately here in the UK we are lucky enough that we are unlikely to be placed in that situation.