It’s a trap
It's a trap that they've been trying to spring for a couple of weeks now! Starting to feel a bit laboured, tbh
Not sure why the Russians would announce doing this. Surely you would want to keep this as quiet as possible to facilitate a withdrawal.
Not sure why the Russians would announce doing this. Surely you would want to keep this as quiet as possible to facilitate a withdrawal.
It would be completely impossible to hide the withdrawal of that many troops and their equipment. It's a huge logistical undertaking. It will be marshalled by military police units, there will be queues of vehicles at form up points and holding areas, road blocks and check points etc. The Ukrainians have access to drone and satellite imagery, int from NATO air assets and humint from the many Ukrainian nationals on the ground. The Russian communication security has been piss poor too, so the Ukrainians will be intercepting military radio traffic, which incredibly doesn't seem to be encrypted as well as mobile phone calls from ordinary Russian soldiers. The Ukrainians will know exactly what is happening and will be following it in real time.
HIMARS time, surely? 🚀
HIMARS time, surely?
Probably, then the hypocritical bastards will be claiming Ukrainian war crimes and using it for internal propoganda.
And it'll be a lot of conscripts and reluctant soldiers that take the beating rather than the leaders. Very sad.
Blimey. You'd not want that bloke digging footings for you eh?
I'm hoping this is the beginning of the last phase I can only hope.
If Ukraine gets it's land back they will have to arm the border with anything they can get and have a huge army/air force apparently they don't need a Navy
All roads lead to Crimea. I don't think Ukraine will stop until it's liberated. I'm not suggesting it will be easy or quick, but the the resolve, ingenuity, resilience and courage of the Ukrainian forces never ceases to surprise. I reckon by this time next year, there will be a blue and yellow flag flying over Crimea.
So, just looked at the map. Crimea only has two roads in and one of them is a bridge that surely isn't there any more. This is going to be pretty difficult to re-take isn't it?
So, just looked at the map. Crimea only has two roads in and one of them is a bridge that surely isn’t there any more. This is going to be pretty difficult to re-take isn’t it?
Once the abandoned West bank of the Dnipro is reoccupied by Ukraine it will put parts of Crimea and the road routes to it in HIMARS range. If the Kerch bridge should also accidently explode again and there is a big increase in partisan activity on the peninsula, Ukraine could make life very difficult for the occupiers from a stand off position long before they would need to send troops in. How willing those poorly led and unmotivated Russian troops will be to defend their occupation when the Ukrainian offensive eventually does come is open to debate.
Just a thought - all the noise by Russia about evacuating civilians the last few weeks. If they really are going to withdraw, I’ll wager loads of their officers and best soldiers left dressed as civilians under the cover of an evacuation.
This made me shudder. Many hours learning to clear these bastards way back when. Absolute lick out, Arty & UCAV is a far better option!
Mud has definitely allegedly arrived
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1590437738687647745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1590437738687647745%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
Just a thought – all the noise by Russia about evacuating civilians the last few weeks. If they really are going to withdraw, I’ll wager loads of their officers and best soldiers left dressed as civilians under the cover of an evacuation
The civilians were 'withdrawing' with Russian soldiers and armour, so that Ukraine wouldn't target them on bridges and barges (according to ISW)
This made me shudder. Many hours learning to clear these bastards way back when. Absolute lick out, Arty & UCAV is a far better option!
If the satellite images are all over twitter
Then the locations are in Ukrainian himars/drone GPS's
Very damning editorial in one of the Moscow papers this morning, around 1.19 in on this Steve Rosenberg report.
https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1590600147808841731?t=AhiE9uJwtOR5kkyxKI0fDA&s=19
This makes a very important point.
The Russian strongman is a rational actor who is willing to retreat under pressure if it is to his advantage to do so.
That should lessen concern that Putin will launch World War III if he doesn’t get his way in Ukraine. Putin certainly miscalculates (as he did in invading Ukraine), and he is definitely reluctant to concede defeat. But he is not unstable, stupid or suicidal. Thus the retreat from Kherson offers encouraging news not only about the state of the war in Ukraine but also about the state of Putin’s mind.
https://twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1590447938610040832
Absolute lick out, Arty & UCAV is a far better option!
Can someone translate this please?
Clearing these sorts of things on the ground using troops is a pain, using Artillery spotted by Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles is much easier.
Can someone translate this please?
Apologies @molgrips, cheers @nickc
They're hard work if well defended; you have to fight each leg to corners, each apex is a vulnerable point (VP) or killing zone. Lots of grenades, ammunition and endurance required. As other have said, clearing them with ranged weapons is much better and safer for UKR troops.
Thanks 🙂 this is going to make it hard for Ukr which I guess is the point. But one would assume they're going to become muddy ditches and filled wiath conscripts which could make them less effective...
With the bridge to Crimea out of use or of limited use, won't supplying any troops be an issue?
With the bridge to Crimea out of use or of limited use, won’t supplying any troops be an issue?
It will make things more difficult, but for the time being they still have road access via Mariupol, as well as ferry access across the Kerch strait and airlifts to Crimean airfields. Russian military logistics are primarily based around rail movement though, so the bridge damage is a major headache. There are also lots of reports that they are very short of trucks for road moves. To the point where they have been commandeering a random mix of civilian trucks and vans. I'm really hoping the Ukrainians bide their time until the bridge is just about repaired, then whack it again!
Thanks 🙂 this is going to make it hard for Ukr which I guess is the point. But one would assume they’re going to become muddy ditches and filled wiath conscripts which could make them less effective…
Depends if they're reinforcing them. That can mitage the issues caused by water ingress to a point. There doesn't seem to be any visible signs of overheard cover, so they're going to be pretty miserable places to be for sure.
Why hasn't Russia used its airforce much in all this?
Every time they try they get shot down. It is using long range bombers to launch cruise missiles from well behind its lines.
Why hasn’t Russia used its airforce much in all this?
The UKR have been supplied with rather a lot of air defence systems. From vehicle to man-portable so I think RU are erring on the side of caution. That and they may be hitting logistics issues (although I can't find sources to confirm this) it's just a hunch.
Yes.. They probably don't have that many operational 'high tech' jets.. And Ukraine has loads of AA defence now.. Sending them out they will kinda be sitting ducks... Flying ducks?
And they are super expensive to maintain or replace if they are shot down.. Loosing just one high tech fighter jet /multi role fighter/bomber represents a huge financial loss.
I guess they are being super careful with the good stock they have left.
Otherwise we'd be seeing a lot more Russian jets doing cheeky bomb and bugger off fast runs in Ukraine.
As an ex RAF pilot, the first part of any western military campaign is to gain control of the skies, knocking out enemy radar, missile sites and C2. Without this, losses of jets would be huge.
Russia claimed to hav3 destroyed the UkAF on day 1, but as with most Russian claims, it was all bluster. The west also flooded in Stingers and other MANPADs, so each unit could defend itself from Fast Jet strikes and Helicopters.
With the bridge to Crimea out of use or of limited use
Is it out of use? Certainly one side of the road is knackered for a good amount of time, but was the rail bridge damaged much beyond needing rail repairs? Not heard much since it happened.
Difficult to get an accurate answer but most reporting suggests that whilst the rail link is open, it is operating with fewer trains, lower weight limits and reduced speeds. Russia claims the Bridge will be fully repaired by July 2023.
Well, a wade around twitter would indicate that it is all kicking off in Kherson. UA about to enter (if not already there) and what seems like a ‘surprising’ collapse of the Russian army with soldiers legging it to the river to try and get across any way that they can.
Time will tell, but it’s looking like any hope the Russians had of a staged withdrawal is collapsing fast..
Yeah - calling it organised doesn5 make it so, especially when your enemy surrounds you and is shelling all your narrow exits.
Why hasn’t Russia used its airforce much in all this?
To understand how Russia’s aerial advantage evaporated, Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling from the Royal United Services Institute in London interviewed key Ukrainian officials. The result is the definitive study of the Ukraine air war’s first phase.
This new defensive line the Russians are retreating to.
Firstly, I thought that the Ukrainian's had longer range and more accurate weapons. Presumably they spend a winter being logical and intelligent about picking off the 'best' targets at thier leisure?
Secondly, come the right weather, they can go around some of this to the north/west, and move along the coast eastwards?
Thirdly, there's really long supply lines still for Russia, and see my comment about using longer range and accuracy to just keep disrupting? Russia already has cold, hungry and uncomfortable troops, Ukraine can just keep twisting..
Russian can retreat and regroup, but it won’t solve its issues of logistics, poor equipment, lack of leadership, slow communications, centralised orders and demoralised ill disciplined troops.
That Forbes article, along with much other evidence shows how the UAF have changed from a poorly run post soviet army, to a modern, western trained mobile force.
They know the Russian doctrine and how they will fight, plus the range and capabilities of all its weaponry.
They used the summer to cede territory slowly, whilst inflicting heavy losses, and training up a huge mobilised army with western help.
Aside from the USA & China, they are probably the most able land army on the planet right now. Battle hardened and well equipped.
It seems the Ukrainians are concentrating all their artillery fire on the crossing points the the Russians are using over the Dnipro. There are apparently still around 20,000 Russians waiting to cross to the east bank. It seems any hope of an orderly retreat have evaporated. It's going to be absolute carnage reminiscent of the 'road of death' in Kuwait, unless the Russians have the sense to surrender enmasse. Awful to imagine and yet more blood on Putin's hands.
Russia doesn’t value life, never has. Sacrifice for the greater good of “The Motherland” . Sadly, the greater good these days just means keeping power for Putin & making the inner circle rich.
Those defensive lines along the Dnipro will achieve nothing, other than preventing UA from crossing the river. But the UA doesn’t need to anyway.
A quick punch south to Melitopol now would be decisive. Do it whilst the RA is still in chaotic retreat, and Cut off Crimea and the rest of RA in the west.
If we had supplied the heavy weaponry they asked for instead of trying to not provoke Putin that's exactly what would be happening.
Thread on why (according to this guy) broad donestic support for Russias exists
https://twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1590846401675919360?t=6qSbsLzPT9U7CQY8UbQjxw&s=19
I'm seeing pictures now of the Kherson bridge completely cut...
Russian MOD state the withdrawal is complete with no losses and nothing was left behind........
Based on that, thousands are stuck, it was a massacre & they lost al their kit!
It certainly seems Kherson has been abandoned. Whether there is still troops attempting to cross the dam we dont yet know.
Very happy with this:
Looking at how this is being covered in Russia it is nothing short of staggering.
Official media are trying to look the other way and play it down. They call what is happening in Kherson a manoeuvre, a redeployment or a regrouping and they have presented it in rather positive terms for the Russians.
But, looking at social media where there are a lot more diverse opinions - and particularly the pro-war commentators - they are shocked. They are aghast.
Some of them say this is Russia's worst defeat since the break-up of the Soviet Union, which will scar our hearts forever.
That's the kind of rhetoric they're using.
Of course, this has a huge impact on President Vladimir Putin's standing and the ability to carry on pursuing what he calls the special military operation.
The latest deepstate map shows both bridgeheads and Kherson city in UAF control. Wow.
Last night I was hearing reports of gruesome pictures of dead bodies in the Dniepr river that were too horrific for twitter.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#9.75/46.7513/32.5767
The latest deepstate map shows both bridgeheads and Kherson city in UAF control. Wow.
Nice to see a big blue patch on that map again! 👍
I'm sorry to be pessimistic, but I'm worried about the ease of this. I can't help feeling Putin will suddenly drop something nasty on Kherson once its fully re-occupied aka the Trap.
Kryton - it wasn’t easy. UAF have been setting this up for months.
-Cutting off the bridges and supply routes.
-Taking out Ammunition supply depots
-constant shelling of HQ/troop concentrations
-SOF/partisan ops.
They have taken Kherson without having an urban battle. That is a good thing. The city still stands, civilians spared the slaughter and many UAF lives saved. Modern smart warfare instead of the RF meat grinder.
Kryton57
Full Member
I’m sorry to be pessimistic, but I’m worried about the ease of this. I can’t help feeling Putin will suddenly drop something nasty on Kherson once its fully re-occupied aka the Trap.
In this case I think Russian incompetence from the start rather than an elaborate conspiracy now, whats amazing is that its not the complete rout seen in Luhansk
Kryton – it wasn’t easy. UAF have been setting this up for months.
-Cutting off the bridges and supply routes.
-Taking out Ammunition supply depots
-constant shelling of HQ/troop concentrations
-SOF/partisan ops.They have taken Kherson without having an urban battle. That is a good thing. The city still stands, civilians spared the slaughter and many UAF lives saved. Modern smart warfare instead of the RF meat grinder.
^This. Attrition done well.
Russian MOD state the withdrawal is complete with no losses and nothing was left behind……..
Based on that, thousands are stuck, it was a massacre & they lost al their kit!
I have seen tweets saying that thousands of Russians are stuck on the wrong side of the river, so your joke may not be far from the truth.
Next step - the Russians have prepared a fortified line of defence. Surely that means the Ukrainians will go round the side? - t hey won't be complicit in a re-run of WW1.
They have taken Kherson without having an urban battle. That is a good thing. The city still stands, civilians spared the slaughter and many UAF lives saved. Modern smart warfare instead of the RF meat grinder.
And it'll be very satisfactory if this remains the outcome.
What a day 🥳
Not a surprise really but rather predictable. (referring to the news saying terms have been offered to Russia)
It looks like the event in Ukraine will be the trigger point for future conflict once NATO moves in.
Now that Russia knows how poorly equipped or trained they are by comparison to NATO etc, I suspect the seed is now sowed for the mother of all wars in future. It will take Russia a while to regroup/retrain/reequip etc but I am sure they will be back.
Putin might not achieve his objective (not sure if there is a winner or loser) in the current Ukraine/Russia war, but their future leader(s) might be different.
Strategically, Russia is still in WWII with poor commands while their enemies have been preparing since WWII. On the other hand, I also think Russia is either "testing" the water or completely underestimated the involvement (capabilities) of NATO.
One great advantage NATO has is the utilisation of the "eye in the sky" (satellites) that keeps track of all developments and movements of their opponents. This information is highly crucial for ground manoeuvre.
Humiliation for Russia?
referring to the news saying terms have been offered to Russia
Where is this referred to?
@ slowoldman/chap ...
Crikey, you must keep up!
Here you go from STW "favourite" news outlet.
p/s: This is will be costly. The US wants to play in China's backyard
Ah so "Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West' as he loses control of Kherson - and his cronies have reacted positively because it allows them to stay in power and avoid criminal charges".
Well that's all the reason Zelensky needs to say "sod that".
Its actually terms discussed between Ukraine and the west, and not terms offered "by" the west according to that article, but as its the DM its probably the journalistic equivalent of chronic diarrhoea anyway.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1591110988719263745?t=ve3xAEbhzrP-p4dC9-SYeA&s=19
Seeing a lot of this.
Trying to be hopeful they dont find too many horrors from occupation.
There absolutely will be mass graves and torture sites. There has been everywhere occupied by these scumbags.
Russia is rotten to the core and will never change. This army we have seen was supposed to be the modernised version, but corruption is so endemic, the money was pocketed instead at every level.
The only way to change that mindset is to democratise. So it will never happen.
It will take Russia a while to regroup/retrain/reequip etc but I am sure they will be back
None of that will improve their chances if they continue with their current doctrine. That doctrine is the only one available to them because creating a military with empowered command at all levels makes them a concern for those who wish to retain power.
Putin needs them to be confused and reliant on micromanagement so there's no risk of a coup.
The only way to change that mindset is to democratise.
To end corruption ?.
Are you new to the UK or something 😆
None of that will improve their chances if they continue with their current doctrine.
Current strategy nahhh ... If Ukraine fights alone Russia would win hands down. But the moment NATO got involved with the eye in the sky, Russia knew they were already fighting a losing battle.
That doctrine is the only one available to them because creating a military with empowered command at all levels makes them a concern for those who wish to retain power.
They have been complacent and never improved since WWII. Technology wise they are somewhat behind in terms of the practical implementation. They will have to go back to the drawing board.
Putin needs them to be confused and reliant on micromanagement so there’s no risk of a coup.
Nothing to do with Putin. They are just poorly trained and relying on WWII strategy and their so called generals are all paper tigers (most).
A humiliation will do them good and the more humiliated they are the better it is for them to understand they are no longer capable.
If this is the start of the mother of all wars, the seed has already being sowed, all parties will be fighting blind. Encroach an inch of Russian soil will spark the fire.
There will be a period of "peace" before the whole thing kicks off again. For Russia to challenge NATO on equal footing will take a generation at least, say 30 years. But when that happens most will not survive (both sides).
In the meantime, all Russia can do is to disrupt the world energy supply.
NATO/Ukraine 1 - 0 Russia.
The only way to change that mindset is to democratise.
Yes, sow the seed of conflict in their population. In the far east, the term democracy is also a by word for creating internal troubles because that's not their belief or culture.
I’m not saying they should or will democratise, but unless they do, the same problems will stay.
The only way to change that mindset is to democratise. So it will never happen.
You need to watch TraumaZone to see how well democracy worked in Russia.
I’m not saying they should or will democratise, but unless they do, the same problems will stay.
They can't because that's how they are. They might have some elements of "democracy" but that's just superficial. They have to be comfortable in who they are rather than trying to be influenced.
Yes, their system does not encourage thinking out of the box, but their machine like thinking has their own advantage so long as they know how to manage it. For the moment, they are all very poorly managed.
As for China, I am still unsure because on the one hand they can be machine like but on the other hand they are very good at taking short cuts.
At this rate, there's a real chance Ukraine could retake Crimea
The Russian army is a joke,
For Russia to challenge NATO on equal footing will take a generation at least, say 30 years.
Never going to happen, this was the last gasp of the Russian imperial dream, Russian military is severely weakened, many of the countries in the Russian sphere depend on them to keep their own populace in line.
Those mobilised Russian troops that have tried to escape the slaughter and are now being held in pits by their own side sum up the disaster
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1590696393001168897?t=0jDURBhbfaJEn1V-Kienqw&s=19
The Russian army is a joke,
Yes, it is but it is also a wake up call for them.
Never going to happen, ...
Unless Russia is assimilated into NATO, it is difficult to predict.
... this was the last gasp of the Russian imperial dream, ...
LOL! What is USA doing to the world now? Dollar as world currency reserve and dictating "democracy" to others? This is the new form of imperialism (old story tbh) in the name of "moral" high ground. They are the most powerful in the world right now and is allowed to dictate terms.
All the mighty empires fell after a period of time but for now it is the America's imperial ambitions. As one US famous investor once said, he was born at a time where life is good because America rules the world. The new world is taking over the old world but for how long?
this was the last gasp of the Russian imperial dream, …
LOL! What is USA doing to the world now? Dollar as world currency reserve and dictating “democracy” to others?
chewk, I have no idea of whether this was a lost in translation issue but your comment has nothing to do with kimbers assertion that I can see.
chewk, I have no idea of whether this was a lost in translation issue but your comment has nothing to do with kimbers assertion that I can see.
My interpretation is that kimbers is referring to Russian's imperialist ambition, but I am saying that the obvious imperialist is USA. Albeit being disguised as the "good" guy. At any period in history there will always be one that tried to dominate in various forms.
Russian claims to have evacuated all their troops from Kherson region across the river would appear to be lies for domestic consumption.