Sorry Kato, please repost. Thank you!
Can't paste the quote
but BBC quotes Von Der Leyen talking about accepting Ukraine on fast track membership of the EU.
"weeks not years"
SO my question to chewkw was what does Russia do about that?
SO my question to chewkw was what does Russia do about that?
In the current situation it will only be seen as provocation. I recall one of the arguments being freedom of movement that is also perceived by Russia as a potential problem to them in addition to other conditions of EU.
Hence Finland might be in a bit of a rush.
Finland will regret their decision if they cannot think through their decision carefully. They are currently Not involved but trying to present a "united" front is going to cause problems to themselves.
I don't think Russia is in the mood to explain themselves. That boat has sailed long ago.
chewkw
Finland will regret their decision if they cannot think through their decision carefully.
I think they have, for around 6 weeks now.
It's evident they might really regret NOT joining NATO.
I think they have, for around 6 weeks now.
It’s evident they might really regret NOT joining NATO
If nothing happens then all good.
The "game" of dare has started so let's see how the future pan out.
I also see Ukraine war prolonging for a long time judging from the current situation.
Was discussing with colleagues earlier today regarding Russia/Ukraine war this after and it goes ...
Colleagues: "Russia invaded Ukraine so sanctions are justified as Ukraine is not a threat and does not have nukes. Russia is a threat to peace."
Me: "Let's compare that to Cuba. Is Cuba a threat to USA? Did Cuba invade USA? If No to both then why is Cuba still sanctions until today since the Cuba missile crisis? Why is USA justified in sanctioning Cuba when it is Not even a threat? Is USA saying no other power can be stationed in their backyard?"
Colleagues: "But Russia invaded Ukraine and do you want Putin to control the world?"
Me: "Are you saying that it is better for USA/NATO to control the world instead of Putin/Russia?"
Colleagues: "But Russia invaded Ukraine!"
Me: "So are you applying a Unipolar power in a Multipolar power world?"
Colleagues: "Russia invaded Ukraine!"
Me: "Okay".
Go on,
Finland will regret their decision if they cannot think through their decision carefully.
What does that mean
Please
What does that mean
Please
If Finland is to join then it is like adding fuel to fire.
chewkw, the real issue I have with what you are saying is that Putin doesn't require a "reason" to invade a country. If one doesn't exist, he simply fabricates it. He doesn't require any provocation or "fuel to go on a fire".
Putin is the best poster boy for NATO there has ever been in decades. He's singlehandedly repaired the damage Trump did.
Hell, now Finland's intentions regarding NATO are clear it has no choice but to join.
Look at poor old Ukraine when it dared to express a commitment to join.
Putin has well and truly snookered himself. His military has been shown to have been hollowed out by systematic corruption and mismanagement. His economy is small and will be getting much smaller... and he's managed to get the whole of europe to commit to rid itself of Russian oil/gas quicker than could have ever been dreamt of only months ago.
Incredible!
chewkw, the real issue I have with what you are saying is that Putin doesn’t require a “reason” to invade a country. If one doesn’t exist, he simply fabricates it. He doesn’t require any provocation.
The reason is simple that they see existential threats from NATO in their backyard and that is a good enough reason to retaliate. They have objected many times but they are simply brushed off.
Putin is the best poster boy for NATO there had ever been.
He is not backing down. He is daring NATO to take action.
He’s singlehandedly repaired the damage Trump did.
All secondary in comparison to restoring the red line at all cost.
Hell, now Finland’s intentions regarding NATO are clear it has no choice but to join.
Showing united front at the wrong time will just escalate the situation.
Putin has well and truly snookered himself. His military has been shown to have been hollowed out by systematic corruption and mismanagement. His economy is small and will be getting much smaller… and he’s managed to get the whole of europe to commit to rid itself of Russian oil/gas quicker than could have ever been dreamed of only months ago.
Yes, they are rather backward and their economy is only the size of Spain/Italy etc. Is Russia/Putin concerned? I think we know the answer. i.e. Putin/Russia sees above all else that the red line is crossed and must be restored at all cost while all else are really side shows.
What red line was crossed?
What red line was crossed?
Ukraine wanting to join NATO.
(other tension in Ukraine internally prior to Russian invasion is the West and East Ukraine allegiance that escalated a while back)
The reason is simple that they see existential threats from NATO in their backyard and that is a good enough reason to retaliate.
There is no "they" only Putin sees a threat because that's what he does. Everything is an existential threat as far as his world view goes. We either continue to pander to his delirium or face it as we are now.
He is not backing down. He is daring NATO to take action.
His plans for a quick victory in Ukraine are in tatters. Putin doesn't do "backing down" but he cannot bend reality either. NATO will continue to supply arms, training and near real time intel. That will not stop, NATO has been taking action for weeks, Putin is near impotent to stop that.
[Finland] Showing united front at the wrong time will just escalate the situation.
Nothing to do with a united front, though that helps. Finland is merely looking on in horror at Ukraine and making a completely understandable decision based on self preservation.
(other tension in Ukraine internally prior to Russian invasion is the West and East Ukraine allegiance that escalated a while back)
What, you mean when Russia annexed part of Ukraine? That does tend to lead to a rise in tensions.
Yes, they are rather backward and their economy is only the size of Spain/Italy etc. Is Russia/Putin concerned? I think we know the answer. i.e. Putin/Russia sees above all else that the red line is crossed and must be restored at all cost while all else are really side shows.
Putin only cares about his self preservation, anything that effects that in the short or long-term is a "good thing".
Red lines...provocation... poking the bear.... It's all irrelevant. Putin would go to war with himself on an otherwise uninhabited island. He see threats everywhere. The West, rightly, only sees one.
Him.
There is no “they” only Putin sees a threat because that’s what he does. Everything is an existential threat as far as his world view goes. We either continue to pander to his delirium or face it as we are now.
If Putin sees a threat then that is enough to justify action. Others are irrelevant.
His plans for a quick victory in Ukraine are in tatters. Putin doesn’t do “backing down” but he cannot bend reality either. NATO will continue to supply arms, training and near real time intel. That will not stop, NATO has been taking action for weeks, Putin is near impotent to stop that.
Nobody wants to back down so the situation will just escalate.
Nothing to do with a united front, though that helps. Finland is merely looking on in horror at Ukraine and making a completely understandable decision based on self preservation.
Finland is just a small player in the current situation but if they stick their neck out then who knows what will happen. Finland should dare Russia by joining NATO. Sounds like Finland is going to open another front to split the Russia forces. Probably being encouraged ... silly if that is the case.
What, you mean when Russia annexed part of Ukraine? That does tend to lead to a rise in tensions.
There was undercurrent in their domestic politics due to ethnicity of West and East Ukraine which escalated which also threaten Russia after their pro-Russian administration was toppled.
Putin only cares about his self preservation, anything that effects that in the short or long-term is a “good thing”.
I see escalation only so whatever Putin/Russia is or is not will only mean one thing. Long war.
Red lines…provocation… poking the bear…. It’s all irrelevant. Putin would go to war with himself on an otherwise uninhabited island. He see threats everywhere. The West, rightly, only sees one.
Putin/Russia/they are not concerned about others' views judging from their actions.
Ukraine wanting to join NATO.
Really?
Really?
Too late for Ukraine to reason now.
Sorry chewkw, but it just goes round and round. I *think* your position is constant and eternal subservience to Putin's conquests but I'm really not even sue of that much?
As for me? We can either cede the world to Putin whenever he sneezes in a certain direction or we end the futile attempts at placating him.
This is where you and I see the world differently. You see Finland wishing to join NATO as escalation. I see Putin invading numerous countries on his border as escalation.
I fear we will never share the same views.
Too late for Ukraine to reason now.
Surprised? No. Disappointed? Yes.
I fear we will never share the same views.
I am afraid I don't see how I can explain Putin/Russia other than stating the multipolar power perspective.
Surprised? No. Disappointed? Yes.
My personal view (not interpreting the multipolar power) is that either NATO/Russia go all out nuclear on each other once and for all (be prepared for the aftermath as everyone will look like a fool) or one side back off. Prolonging the war does not solve anything because both sides will come back again and again and again. Sad for all but that's the reality as I see it.
What is your solution?
.
it just ain’t black and white.
This is about as black and white as anything will ever be. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, they did not attack Russia. Russia invaded Ukraine and unleashed genocide on innocent civilians. Russia are unambiguously the bad guys in this.
To paraphrase something I read somewhere, wars are rarely fought between good guys and bad guys. They are usually between ambiguous guys and bad guys. In this case, Ukraine is a relatively young country with an ambiguous past. They have improved their governance massively and seem to be on the path to being a regular liberal democracy. Russia is a brutal place run by gangsters. There is no equivalence between Ukraine and Russia, Russia is the bad guy here.
The whole "but it's complex" nonsense is like if someone kicked their dog and their neighbour tortured and murdered them and their family and threatened to torture and murder anyone who intervened. Of course, you shouldn't kick your dog but that's in no way comparable to torture and murder. Any sensible person would understand who the victim was in such an incident.
At the start Putin thought it was black and white, he'd move his military in, the Ukrainians would capitulate and it would be relatively easy for Russia, this did not turn out to be the fact, and we now see the 'it's not black and white', mainly due to Ukraine actually defending against Russia's aggression.
This whole war was started on acts of aggression by Russia, and deception, they moved their military to the Russian borders as a show of strength, but then had those 'war games' in Belarus to then manoeuvre their equipment further west for the attacks shows utter contempt for all, including Belarus.
We already live in a multi polar world, but the boss of that second pole isnt Russia, and there almost no indication it's ever going to be again. Certainly a lack of time is a reason why this invasion has happened, as he wants to take Ukraine before it got too strong.
The most likely outcome isnt Russia renewed, but Russia the subservient partner to China. Reliant on political and economic support. And for all the show that is not a friendly alliance, its little more than an enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Theres more chance of a third pole from one of the other BRICS.
FFS can we stop going round and round on Nato/Putin - start a separate thread if you want to engage Chekw Putin bot, leave this thread for Ukraine updates/news amalgamation
Putin is a gangster.
He chose as a young man to seek out and work for the biggest bully around (the fsb), either be the bully or get bullied.
His gang's Territory was stolen from him in the 1990s
He does not recognise the legitimacy of any independence agreed to by his forerunners. He sees that as signed for under duress, just temporary until the time is right to liberate them.
These former Soviet states creating alliances with the us and Europe greatly piss him off as they are going further out of his reach.
He saw Ukraine at a critical pivotal moment, they too were slipping out of his reach. He tried his best to get them back without expensive military means.
Over 20 years he has made wealthy oligarchs and sent them out to buy political influence around the world. He meddled in every election. He manipulated the support of his citizens. None of that has worked out for him, and now he is an old man (very old for Russia) and ill. So he resorts to old (proven) military methods.
The Ukraine is more important than any other as Kyiv is the birthplace of Russia.
I fear chewk is right, he is going to throw everything be has at this. He knows he is losing, and he is running out of time.
There's nothing the west can threaten him with to get him to stop, there is no more leverage, and the west won't step onto Russian territory.
What he hates the most is that he alone has become the biggest existential threat to Russia.
Two Chewie quotes from this page:
Finland will regret their decision if they cannot think through their decision carefully. They are currently Not involved but trying to present a “united” front is going to cause problems to themselves.
Finland should dare Russia by joining NATO
Is it just me or do they contradict each other? "Finland shouldn't join", "Finland should join".
Maybe Rusty Nissan is right and we should start a seperate Chewie thread?????
The problem I think Putin now has is that Ukraine is on the front foot militarily, at least for the moment. The Russian military is struggling to regroup, and it’s clear that even Mariupol, which has been ‘falling within days’ for a number of weeks now, remains highly contested. I have no idea how they are getting supplies into that city, but they clearly are.
One side or the other will have to back down. Ukraine won’t because it has the high ground, militarily and morally, and Putin won’t because he doesn’t know how to. I suspect he will happily expend a few thousand more Russian lives, as well as a few thousand more Ukrainian ones, before he is willing to concede anything.
So what’s the solution? I have no idea but one thing I do think is this war will grind on for a good while yet I think.
I found this an interesting take on the Russian perspective of why to attack Ukraine now. Also an insight into internal issues such poor education and health care, declining military, brain drain, population in free fall etc. which will likely lead to the demise of Russia as a cohesive entity in years to come.
This is the last gasp of a rapidly declining power, and the desperation and incompetence of it has destroyed the illusion of the once mighty Russian bear.
Some of the comments in it have been overtaken by very recent events, but I found it overall to be very good.
Despite the horrors of the war, "the West" needs to do some planning on how to help Russia transition through the end of Putins regime - however that happens - to prevent it becoming an even worse nuclear armed rogue state.
I fear the lessons of Iraq haven't been learned.
Finland is going to open another front to split the Russia forces. Probably being encouraged …
Finland have made their own decisions, NATO is 'expanding' because Putin & Russia are seen as dangerous to the countries around
Chechents, Georgia, and now Ukraine prove that to be correct
Putin is terrified not of the military threat from Ukraine, the existential threat Congress from a former soviet country prospering far better than Russia itself- that destroys the myth he propogates of his success as leader
The Remnants of the Russian military would get a shock if it tried to invade Finland.
Finlands military has only 1 job. Defend against a Russian attack. The whole country’s infrastructure is set up to do just that, and they are well equipped - the biggest artilley in W Europe, including MLRS, F18s, Leopard tanks, 280,000 properly trained and exercised reservists. Cruise missiles and good Air Defense.
Their “Total Defense” strategy is to suck in an attacker to the harsh terrain of the borderlands, stretch it, then destroy its logistics, and grind it to dust. Sound familiar??
Despite the horrors of the war, “the West” needs to do some planning on how to help Russia transition through the end of Putins regime
I don't see how that can happen without the trial of military and government leaders for war crimes. Until then, Russia gets to stay on the naughty step with Belarus etc.
Yep, my position, just to clarify, is Stop the War
But in the meantime, it must be the fault of the US somehow, right?
I think everyone here wants to stop the war. The only one who can do that is the one that started the war.
Chew’s view on how Putin thinks isn’t wrong, it’s just that Putin’s version of the truth is warped. We don’t have to let him roll over Europe, flattening cities & murdering populations just because he wants to.
There’s nothing the west can threaten him with to get him to stop, there is no more leverage
There’s plenty more leverage. Since the war began the EU has sent a billion dollars per day to Russia for their oil and gas. We’ve also sent a huge amount. The problem is our support for Ukraine only goes so far, which is not very much.
Chew’s view on how Putin thinks isn’t wrong, it’s just that Putin’s version of the truth is warped.
That could be helped if he posted his view more clearly
"Putin believes it's the fault of NATO"
is not the same as
"It's the fault of NATO"
That would ease some of his pain on here. If indeed that is how he feels
There’s plenty more leverage.
Yup, we (and most pertinently Germany) have used trade, most notably in gas and finance, to cement a closer relationship with Russia. Putin has made it clear that he’s happy to risk throwing that all away as he forces the people of other countries to submit to his will using Russia’s biggest asset, its retained military capability. We (not just the UK & Germany) have to accept that, cut the trade, and bolster our own military capability… neither of which we want (and I include myself in that, I want demilitarisation, disarmament and more trade)… but it’s not our choice to make… Putin has made the choice for all of us.
boomerlives
That could be helped if he posted his view more clearly
“Putin believes it’s the fault of NATO”
is not the same as
“It’s the fault of NATO”
That would ease some of his pain on here. If indeed that is how he feels
Actually it is both. Putin believes that NATO is the existential threats in trying to influence Ukraine due to their past interactions in Bucharest Summit, Syria etc. It is NATO's fault because NATO consider themselves as having the moral high ground to establish themselves from a unipolar perspective. i.e. the argument that if the world is all democracy there will be no war, which seems to ignore thousands years of history that any intention to impose an alternative narratives will only end with some conflicts/wars. The only way to prevent wars is for all to arm themselves to their teeth and to think twice (all sides) before they try to apply the softly, backdoor influence on their counterparts. i.e. multipolar powers. In a nutshell don't go into each others' territory of influence especially those having a boarder with the big guy(s). Non of them will tolerate each other. Even animals know that and will fight to death to defend their territory. As for sanctions that's just West/EU dreaming that they are they the "world" when they start the sanctions. In fact there are still many countries that trade with Russia as normal.
As for saying Finland should join NATO that's just a dare to see what the outcome will be. There is no contraction from my view. Yes, Finland is all prepared etc i.e. "quality over quantity" in terms of their fighting force but if hell break loose they are also going to lick their wounds like all.
Human Rights Watch has just been banned in Russia, so Russian citizens will no longer be able to read Bill's link:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/08/russia-government-shuts-down-human-rights-watch-office
It really is complicated, isn't it? As Bill, Tucker Carlson, Putin and George Galloway keep telling us.
Just because Chewkw isn't looking at this from a moral perspective (right and wrong sort of thing) doesn't make him a Putin apologist.
His perspective has been consistent from the very beginning of this thread and if you look back through his posts, nothing he has said has been proved to be wrong so far. Quite the opposite in fact.
We are bedding in for a long conflict. The paradox is wether we chose to compromise with a murderous dictator or take the moral high ground. It appears the West has chosen the latter option and in the medium term that means prolonged death and destruction in Ukraine, as the West hopes Russia's military capability gets eroded to the point that regime change will happen in Russia.
That could take a long time, ergo the long war Chewkw is talking about.
A note on Chewkw- a few weeks ago he was providing coherent and well argued comments that added to the thread, for pretty much the first time in his posting history. That proved he can do it. So now, every time he doesn't, you know for sure it's shit stirring or trolling. If anyone ever gave him the benefit of the doubt it's time to stop...
In a nutshell don’t go into each others’ territory of influence especially those having a boarder with the big guy(s).
Even animals know that and will fight to death to defend their territory.
Ah, so basically Ukraine belongs to Russia. It is Russian territory he is “defending”. That’s where you’re coming from. Or are you just saying that is what Putin saying? Because that’s evidently true. He is saying that. But do you agree with him?
The difference of opinion is that others think that Ukraine (and Poland, and Lithuania, and on and on) are independent countries that should not be invaded by their neighbours. Putin has claimed Ukraine for Russia and invaded it. But that isn’t the end of the story, just the start. As decades of war, deaths, imprisonment, fear, increased militarisation, broken trade and fractious international relationships come out of it. That is all unavoidable now. The idea that if all other countries refuse to provide help to the people in Ukraine than we can avoid or reduce the consequences of Putin’s actions is just wishful thinking.
Ah, so basically Ukraine belongs to Russia. It is Russian territory he is “defending”. That’s where you’re coming from. Or are you just saying that is what Putin saying? Because that’s evidently true. He is saying that. But do you agree with him?
The difference of opinion is that others think that Ukraine (and Poland, and Lithuania, and on and on) are independent countries that should not be invaded by their neighbours. Putin has claimed Ukraine for Russia and invaded it.
It’s not an ‘opinion’, it’s a simple, historical fact that Ukraine was an independent country, with Kiev a city before Russia even existed. The name Russia comes from the word Rus, derived from those who arrived in the area and became princes of Ukraine, it comes from ‘those who build boats’, because they were Vikings. Without those Viking incomers, Russia as an entity would not exist. Putin’s attempts at revisionist historical claims to Ukraine are completely false, a blatant lie used to justify his empire building, a gross attempt to recreate Imperial Russia, by any means necessary.
https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1980/trade--warfare-in-the-kievan-rus/
As an aside, it seems that even warfare isn’t immune to pop-culture influences…
That video is an interesting assessment.
If true there are going to be some serious risks involved with the nuclear stockpile in years to come.
Putin’s attempts at revisionist historical claims to Ukraine are completely false, a blatant lie used to justify his empire building, a gross attempt to recreate Imperial Russia, by any means necessary.
I know that, you know that… just trying to work out if the other poster is telling us about Putin’s claims (yeah, thanks, we know), or genuinely believes/aligns with him.
