Whilst i was there
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1576223563656617984?t=9jCy-J92ZqMKigi8IG1-nQ&s=19
does anyone have a link to a map of the current situation, or where I can find the latest?
This one gets updated more or less in real time
https://deepstatemap.live/en#10.5/49.0177/38.1744
It’s definitely a rabbit hole!!!
Whilst i was there
Very strange! No-one seems to know what is going on there
Winners are grinners.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1576248108690079745
^^^^^Thats the official UA twitter feed, and they enjoy baiting the Russians!
Eloquently put by Mr Wallace/MOD.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/an-article-by-the-defence-secretary-on-the-situation-in-ukraine
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Sky interview with one of the prisoner swapped survivors from Azovstal.
Another grim account.
^^ Terrible read and I suspect far worse will be revealed in time.
I just don't see Ukraine ever giving up the fight, whatever form it takes.
This is worth a read as it's not just about the UA resisting Putin.
These people will just never be beaten.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63037713
Eloquently put by Mr Wallace/MOD.
I'm pretty sure that article was not written by the eegit that said Putin had gone "full Tonto" and that "we kicked their backsides in the Crimea" and we'll do it again.
“There are no checks on Mr. Putin. Just as he made the irresponsible decision to invade Ukraine, you know, he could make another decision. But I don’t see anything right now that would lead me to believe that he has made such a decision.”Austin told Zakaria that he has privately conveyed to his Russian counterpart, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, not to “go down this path and conduct this type of irresponsible behavior.” Austin said he has not talked to Shoigo in “recent days” but said other members of US government leadership have conveyed similar messages to Russia “recently.”
Never thought id be posting thay on a Cycling forum.
In response to UKR taking Lyman, Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Republic, said on Telegram, "In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons"
Kadyrov is well-known to Human Rights Watch, the UN, etc and as the leader of a federal republic of Russia is an ally rather than a major influencer. Analysts have suggested that the presence of Chechen forces is more psychological than militarily useful in Ukraine
In all sorts of ways Lyman is psychologically and strategically important to both sides and is a natural precursor to Kreminna and Sievierodonetsk in the Luhansk Oblast of the Donbas region
The pilots amongst you might be interested to know that Russia has failed to secure enough votes to stay on the International Civil Aviation Organization governing council.
They were voted off for seizing aircraft leased to Russian airlines, dual registration of those aircraft and bombing airports
They were voted off for seizing aircraft leased to Russian airlines, dual registration of those aircraft and bombing airports
Sounds reasonable to me!
Have they been voted off the UN council yet?
Have they been voted off the UN council yet?
They were suspended from the Human Rights council in April and ICAO is a UN agency, so maybe that's a start.
As of a couple of days ago they were merrily using their veto to stop a motion that its referenda in "their" Ukrainian territory was illegal and invalid. The UN finally worked out a way around this in April, so the veto will be voted on https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1116982
For a more permanent solution there's a guide here..,. https://cepa.org/article/expelling-russia-from-the-un-security-council-a-how-to-guide/
This movie has all the makings of a cult classic.
https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1576333553130164225
I knew Ron Jeremy was an absolute douche but to see him in that first pic with a swastika drawn on by a sharpie was a surprise
I knew Ron Jeremy was an absolute douche but to see him in that first pic with a swastika drawn on by a sharpie was a surprise
Those 'tattoos'... really...lol
They were voted off for seizing aircraft leased to Russian airlines, dual registration of those aircraft and bombing airports
What was the reaction when Russia shot down a civil airliner full of people?
What was the reaction when Russia shot down a civil airliner full of people?
TLDR: Nothing yet
The case was handed to a Dutch team who in 2015 proposed an international tribunal. Jaw-droppingly, Russia vetoed the UN resolution for the prosecution tribunal. It's worth noting at this point that the UN has had resolutions vetoed 266 times since 1946, 122 by the USSR/Russia and the balance of 144 by the other four permanent members
The Dutch team charged four main suspects in 2019 to appear at the European Court of Human Rights, one was Igor Girkin/Strelkov whose name has popped up on this thread a few times.
Russia has a policy of not extraditing Russian citizens and the ECHR is expected to give a verdict on the murder charges this year in their absence
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576511810986983424?s=20
Hopefully that happens as claimed
Seems to be on Tass too https://tass.com/world/1516589
What was the reaction when Russia shot down a civil airliner full of people?
Russia were able to muddy the water just enough and because they controlled the area where all the evidence was they were able to obstruct the investigation just long enough for the global conversation to move on.
Not that they're not guilty as sin though, I'd recommend the Bellingcat podcast series on the downing of flight MH17 if you want to see the depths of cynicism the Russians were prepared to go to regarding it.
Hopefully that happens as claimed
This was announced by Chancellor Scholtz on 1st June. One unit to be delivered per Twitter and three more to follow
https://twitter.com/PigLazer/status/1576623151718739969?t=3Vh5HHNujimhB8EGAGtePw&s=19
No, I dont know for sure. Theres a few outlandish rumours seemingly kicking about.
Lots of sources suggesting the Northern end of the Kherson front line (The bit west of the Dniepr River) has be3n smashed & pushed back 30km today.
Fingers crossed it's true!
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664?t=UPl0llu1L2y25a09CNrmEQ&s=19
Any "dramatic actions" in Kherson at the moment seem to be based principally on a twitter hashtag, some maps and nothing else.
Got to be treated with a bit of scepticism for now as ISW, MOD and others are quiet on this. ISW's analysis, which tends to be calm and dispassionate has been suggesting that there won't be much change in Kherson Oblast for a while. UAF are operationally silent on anything in this area (their forces in this area aren't using social media very much at the moment, if at all) , RA aren't saying much either which points to a difficult, complex and costly battle/series of battles going on across a wide area.
Basically it's a case of wait and see.
Once again the 'good news' of progress is, for me, about possibly seeing this all end sooner than Pootin would want. Less lives lost or lives ruined.
Sadly with such rapid progress is that fear of Russian's leaving scorched earth behind.
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1576651408262111234?t=wjx_10_8-bO8wgajDA6vww&s=19
Some of the claims are getting bigger, thats just ludicrous.
Any “dramatic actions” in Kherson at the moment seem to be based principally on a twitter hashtag, some maps and nothing else.
Quite a few seem to rely on Russian channels, not that means its any more reliable.
ISW does the same tbf, although with more cross checking.
But there have been times where it seems likely disinformation is put out there to unbalance the opponent.
The Russians seemed keen on scorched earth on the way in anyway. Running off with their tails between their legs probably leaves them less time to smash stuff needlessly.
Scorched earth is the Russian way of moving forwards, basically mowing down everything in front of them with artillery. Like johnny says, trickier to do when they are regrouping running for their lives, not that I'm sure they won't have a go at it but looking at the equipment and ammo supplies they've left behind in previous UKR pushes they are certainly travelling light when they go.
This whole Western Kherson salient is very flat open ground. A bit like Norfolk and The Fens.
If you had spent the last 6 weeks cutting it off from re supply, blowing up command centres and ammo dumps, probing to destroy what Armour the enemy had, and exhaust the opposition, it would be ripe territory to bring in your fresh mobile troops and smash through where you had assessed a weakness in the line………
Russia have been putting a lot more reinforcements into southern regions
More important than eastern oblasts to Putin, better access to Crimea & black sea - makes harder for Ukraine to export via sea
Just been reading in Novaya Gazeta Europe that the RA has managed to misplace 1.5m army uniforms (link here: missing kit )which, along with the fact that there are reports of new conscripts having to camp in fields as there is no space/equipment/food etc in military barracks for them will help make the mass recruitment a bit interesting...
To quote Blackadder goes forth:
Private "Bob": "Don't send me back, I want to see how war is fought, so badly"
Captain Blackadder: "well you've come to the right place. A war hasn’t been fought this badly since Olaf the Hairy, High Chief of all the Vikings, accidentally ordered 80,000 battle helmets with the horns on the inside"
Or indeed, so well. At least from the POV of the UA.
Meanwhile, interesting developments seem to be afoot in Kherson. The UA seem to be attacking down the right bank of the Dnipro river, driving a salient that may have reached as far as Dudchany which is on the road to Beryslav.
Success here would see RF forces' options to retreat across the river significantly decreased as well as creating the conditions for another potential encirclement in Northern Kherson. Could be yet another devastating setback for Putin is on the cards..
Some blunt words from another former US General/CIA Director
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus
The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.
Not an "official" line
Waiting for satellite updates of that recent airfield 'accident' in Crimea
Ru claimed it was a plane leaving the runway and apparently causing a huge ammo explosion
That's a big statement. Promising to fully engage direct nato action on RF forces if a battlefield nuke is deployed. I guess it would be air assets, drones, ltg missiles and rockets as opposed to boots on the ground.
Scary stuff
Those Kherson advances are confirmed, the Russians were completely routed apparently - today should be interesting 👍
Those Kherson advances are confirmed
Yup the Deputy Head puppet of the Kherson region released a statement earlier, acknowledging UA breakthroughs but telling everyone that there's no need to panic..
So it's obviously worse than we realise thus far.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1576852075824447488
Also reports that in the East the UA are in the outskirts of Lyschansk!
This is a good article on how the Finns gave Ivan a bloody nose in the winter war. They obviously didn't invent it - I seem to remember the Germans using something similar to devastate the Romans in the Teutoberg Forest - but applied it to great effect.
Bit like the column for Kiev of course and other examples of how the UA have isolated, immobolised and then picked off superior Russian forces
Promising to fully engage direct nato action...
If the Tweet is correct, "The US and its allies...", which isn't necessarily NATO, although the US and its allies will probably also be members of NATO 🙂
This map apparently demonstrates what the UA are up to. Effectively creating another cauldron to isolate, trap and destroy more RF assets
This tactic was used by Russia during the 2015 battle for Debaltseve (Donetsk) when around 1000/6000 UKR troops were killed, wounded or captured.
The UKR break out was ingenious, sneaking civilian vehicles, ambulances, etc, in using minor roads and tracks
umm I don't think that is ingenious if true. Keep seeing reports of war crimes for Russians targetting civilian convoys. You can understand why if UKR is using civvy vehicles to infiltrate. I can see why they would and I want them to push Ru back, but you can't then call foul when they blow up any car or ambulance that moves....
I think that statement refers to the 2015 battle (after reading the wiki page).
Ah I thought he was referring to the current conflict, seemed a bit of a Co incidence there have been recent reports of civilian convoys being attacked
WTF does Putin think he's going to achieve by dumping untrained soldiers in a field without any equipment or supplies?
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1576748568404074498
LMAO, it's finally dawned on Russians that looting military equipment might be a problem if you end up in a war.
https://twitter.com/novayagazeta_en/status/1576543270716555266
Dire conditions of the Russian Army. This video is from Russian social media & was filmed by one of the mobilized who was sent to Omsk.
Looks like Sunday night at a free party c. 1997 😆
Reports coming in that the RF is abandoning positions in Northern Kherson as threat of encirclement grows (I think they get that now). Apparently they will form a new defensive line running NW from Beryslav.
If this is true this would effectively hand the UA nearly 50% of the Kherson territory North of the Dnipro that has been occupied by the RF.
Which would be breathtaking and effectively mean that the RF will be out of Kherson North of the river sooner rather than later.
Of course with the river as an easily defendable boundary - and with the Eastern offensive taking up RF time and resources - this would then mean that the next move would almost certainly be a strike South from Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol (and ultimately) the Crimea..
Blimey
Indeed a quick glance at Twitter suggest really sizeable movements in Kharkiv area - perhaps back to the Russian border, as well as movements in Kherson at a pace. It seems like the Ukrainians again have built up a pace of attack that just doesn't let the Russians pause to regroup.
Fingers crossed that this continues.
It seems like the Ukrainians again have built up a pace of attack that just doesn’t let the Russians pause to regroup.
Classic war of manoeuvre. Get inside your enemies decision making loop, so they can only respond after the situation has already changed.
The Allies 1918 and the Germans 1940.
It does look to be heading for a total collapse of the Russian forces. Fingers crossed.
With the 1.5 million uniforms that have gone 'missing', one has to wonder if they ever even existed? Bought and paid for obviously but actually manufactured?
I suppose that one of the reasons the offensives are progressing so swiftly is that there's a short cut in the re-supply chain, whereby the Ukranians don't have to shift munitions forward as the Russians are kindly supplying them in situ and the munitions are completely compatible with the shared post Soviet era equipment.
With the 1.5 million uniforms that have gone ‘missing’, one has to wonder if they ever even existed? Bought and paid for obviously but actually manufactured?
That does seem quite likely. They probably made 100 000 or something and took photos of them in different warehouses.
The Russians do seem to be on the run.
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1576611568942387200
Now, my military credentials are pretty much limited to watching Hollywood movies, but I always imagined that a forest would be a really good place to set up a defensive line.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576896784344809474
Probably really easy to end up shooting your own side in the woods if you’re in disarray.
It's more likely the Russian uniforms didn't exit than that they were stolen - I can't imagine anyone wanting to look like a Russian soldier if they could avoid it (even in the Ru army).
Probably really easy to end up shooting your own side in the woods if you’re in disarray.
Yes, I can imagine that Russian officers might want to stay away.
This can't be real?
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576961509749850112?s=20&t=utkSNDeDp-7R7IeWGJriOw
Well, with a pretty sheep like that, you'd not want to eat it all at once... 😵💫
That is something thats very similar to something thats come up before and was categorised as some to leave well alone and helps no one.
Russian Army eat meat shocker!!
@Piemonster. No goats involved in that particular clip, I believe. Just two consenting adults going about their business when some twisted individual, piloting a drone, drops a grenade on them.
WTF does Putin think he’s going to achieve by dumping untrained soldiers in a field without any equipment or supplies?
Preparing them for the reality of being dumped in Ukraine I imagine.
Just two consenting adults going about their business when some twisted individual, piloting a drone, drops a grenade on them.
Odd, ive seen what your referring to, thats not where im taken to by that link. 🤷♂️
Just two consenting adults going about their business when some twisted individual, piloting a drone, drops a grenade on them.
'Two consenting adults' = part of an army illegally invading a sovereign nation
'twisted individual, piloting a drone' = soldiers, defending their homeland.
I do have an issue with these videos being posted for titillation, but the drone pilots aren't 'twisted' and haven't done anything wrong.
“2 consenting adults”.....may be an assumption. May be a officer and some poor conscript being forced into something? Who knows. If it is 2 Russian soldiers in Ukraine I don’t have an issue with their demise.
Russian lines collapsing quicker than up ou can keep up with
https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1577024783467700225?t=ffe5402hUei8ND3ICGnHow&s=19
What I don't understand is this: if no-one can cross that river easily, what's to stop the Russians shelling the shit out of the Ukranians on the other bank without fear of being attacked? Is it because the Ukr HIMARS are longer range than RF old fashioned guns?
it because the Ukr HIMARS are longer range than RF old fashioned guns?
I think so, Russian air support is severely lacking as is coordination between artillery/infantry/air/armour which leaves any artillery that fires vulnerable to counter battery return fire,
Ukrainians meanwhile seem to have got better at that
I’ve heard the odd twitter rumour that the UA aren’t heading down the Dniepr after Dudchny to Berislav at all, but are now cutting up NW towards the rear of the RFdefensive lines - if so that’s one hell of a move!!!!
The bridge at Dudchany has been blown up by the Russians in order to ease their retreat. That being the case, a move NW might be required in any case.
Reports seem to be coming in that Russia is moving some sort of nuclear assets towards Ukraine to "test Western resolve".
Looks like we are getting to the true, "will he/ won't he" phase.
From where exactly ...?
An official RU post on Telegram shows the convoy moving to deployment apparently.
wonder if that's true, or spreading the rumour so the Ru start shooting their own.
and would that be against any rules of combat? though to be honest if your enemy is moving nuclear assets towards your border, paint a Z on your tank doesn't really compare