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Ukraine

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They are far more concerned and justifiably so, in being the subject of a full invasion.

Russia has not invaded Finland since they last fought so I see no evidence of Russia wanting to invade Finland. Unless Finland is really that naive to consider the prospect of being invaded.

Putin wants Finland back in the fold

Nope. As long as they are not existential threat.


 
Posted : 20/03/2022 11:44 pm
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Russia has not invaded Finland since they last fought

erm....


 
Posted : 20/03/2022 11:45 pm
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...but they have to accept the fact they are under Russian control.

What?


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:08 am
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What?

If that is not control I don't know what that is.
Unless the situation can have alternative description.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:12 am
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lol


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:16 am
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@chewkw Acknowledge maybe, accept no.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:30 am
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Nope. As long as they are not existential threat

Ukraine is not an existential threat.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:52 am
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Ukraine is not an existential threat.

Yes, they are if they are NATO member state.
Even intention to join NATO is a threat as Russia is not going to wait for them to join before taking action.
Refer to Monroe Doctrine.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:54 am
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What?

Well quite, precisely no one on this thread is qualified to say what Ukraine should/has to accept.

None of of even really know for certain what the primary Ukrainan goals are, which might be anything from repelling the invasion force to beyond the borders, to stretching and eroding the invasion force to breaking point within the borders to force a more favourable negotiation environment.

Has anyone seen much from what's going on inside Belarus?


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 7:38 am
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Ok chewie you refer to it again and again. Explain the Monroe Doctrine as it stands, if it stands, now. Not when it was written in 1823 but now and how it applies to the situation in Ukraine.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 8:00 am
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Refer to Monroe Doctrine.

The Monroe doctrine is utterly irrelevant. You need to stop reflexively bringing it up. Let's face it, if you think some very dubious U.S. policy from 200 years ago is justification for the deliberate mass-murder of civilians and ethnic cleansing, you need to check what century you are living in.

Ukraine is a sovereign state. They are not a NATO member. This is not about NATO membership, it's about Russia refusing to recognize Ukraine as a sovereign state.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 8:01 am
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The thing is. Putin (& it appears chekw) are a bit like the guy in the pub who asks if you spilt their pint.

It doesn’t matter if you actually did, it’s about whether they think you did ( or just fancy a Friday night fight to look hard in front of their mates) that matters….

As weak as the chekw / Russian argument is when examined from The outside, if they believe it, then their actions are justified ( in their opinion anyway) .

It’s hard to get someone who
Is entrenched in a position to step
Back and see how “silly” it looks to
Everyone else. That’s the sad situation we find ourselves in here, that’s why finding a settlement that allows putin to save face is crucial to a resolution ( imho obviously)


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 9:23 am
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None of of even really know for certain what the primary Ukrainan goals are, which might be anything from repelling the invasion force to beyond the borders, to stretching and eroding the invasion force to breaking point within the borders to force a more favourable negotiation environment.

The best hope is for a stalemate which will force negotiation but I guess Putin/Russia might want to prevent that but a surrender, in order to have upper hand in negotiation.

Ok chewie you refer to it again and again. Explain the Monroe Doctrine as it stands, if it stands, now. Not when it was written in 1823 but now and how it applies to the situation in Ukraine.

It is exactly as it is albeit from the Putin's perspective. No NATO in his buffer zone or backyard.

Ukraine is a sovereign state. They are not a NATO member. This is not about NATO membership, it’s about Russia refusing to recognize Ukraine as a sovereign state.

The world knows Ukraine is a sovereign state but they are also located next to a powerful nation with nukes. Regardless of whether it is about NATO membership, wrong President being elected etc, Russia/Putin sees them as existential threats and that's a good enough reason to invade. Notice that Not even an EU or a single NATO state dares to enter the conflict openly/directly? That's because they have nukes and no one wants to be vaporised if situation escalate.

The thing is. Putin (& it appears chekw) are a bit like the guy in the pub who asks if you spilt their pint.

Focus on Ukraine, focus on Russia but try not to focus on me as I am just presenting the Russian logic, since there is no one here to present their logic. I ain't no Russian or Ukrainian. I am merely presenting the realist perspective. Everything I said almost came through and I am telling everyone the possibilities. You can reject what I said regarding the possibilities but focus on the topic not the person. As I may sound like supporting Putin's/Russia that's because I am seeing them from their perspective and letting others decide how to consider what's the best logic for this current poor state of affair.

As I said this is no domestic politics but of powerful nation state(s) with nukes. One wrong move and we are all going to be vaporised.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 9:29 am
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Russia/Putin sees them as existential threats and that’s a good enough reasons to invade.

It's not. After WW2 the UN was founded to put an end to nonsense like this.

https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text

All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 9:33 am
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The thing is. Putin (& it appears chekw) are a bit like the guy in the pub who asks if you spilt their pint.

They're actually more like somebody spilt their grandfather's pint but they still have a grievance about it. Let's face it, if you need to cite the 200 year old Monroe doctrine to justify ethnic cleansing, you are pretty desperate.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 9:36 am
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It’s not. After WW2 the UN was founded to put an end to nonsense like this.

Not so with cold war and the current situation. All the UN charter etc has no impact on a powerful nation with nukes.

Let’s face it, if you need to cite the 200 year old Monroe doctrine to justify ethnic cleansing, you are pretty desperate.

I am afraid the reality is that Russia (with nukes) decided that this is their "Monroe doctrine". As I said No other opposing powerful nation with nukes is allowed in the Western hemisphere apart from those NATO members, and especially not near America.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 9:42 am
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Stop feeding the troll 🤷‍♂️


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 9:45 am
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Ukraine gave all its nuclear warheads to Russia (the decommissioning was paid for and assisted by the USA & UK).


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 9:47 am
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and especially not near America.

America is it's own continent, the richest nation on the planet and can more or less do as it pleases. Regardless of what China thinks.  Russia is an ungovernable geographical accident with an economy the size of a middling European state. The two aren't equal in any sense of the word. Putin may think he's a modern Stalin, but the reality of money his country owes is going to come knocking very soon. His army has already lost, it'll run of supplies soon, and replacements - even if they do come from China won't come soon enough. and he's going to be forced to back out.

It's the only reason he wants to negotiate a settlement now.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 9:53 am
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Cant argue with that/\/\


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 10:00 am
 Kato
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What’s Chewkw’s expertise in Russian/Chinese policy etc.

Genuine question from a lurker on this thread


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 10:23 am
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Same as the rest of us “armchair politicians”


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 10:24 am
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I had an idea.

Seeing as, apparently, millions of people think this is an avoidable act of barbarism and should stop at once...

What if some of these multinational millions travelled to Ukraine and walked, in peaceful protest through the country? Walked to the battles and filled the areas? Would the Russian Army dare to fire on these people in their thousands or tens of thousands?


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 11:00 am
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Would the Russian Army dare to fire on these people in their thousands or tens of thousands?

I believe they would. It would be portrayed in Russian propaganda as a NATO plot to invade Russia. Putin doesn't give a **** what the rest of the world thinks, he just needs Russians to not revolt.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 11:09 am
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 Would the Russian Army dare to fire on these people in their thousands or tens of thousands?

[Russian General of Information]

Dear citizens of the world, you have walked into an active war zone. Your safety is at risk. We will cease operations (not really) for 24 hours to allow you to evacuate, after that; we will resume operations, we cannot be held responsible for any injuries or death as as result of your own decision. Thanks you for your attention at this time

[/Russian General of Propaganda]


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 11:16 am
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I fear that would instigate massive escalation - it's unlikely that Russia would stop hostilities (design or accident doesn't even matter), and he's then firing on NATO country's civilians.
NATO then has to get involved, and no-one really knows where that ends up, but worst case is really, really bad...


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:16 pm
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Hey ho.

I find it hard to imagine, but then I wouldn't think of rolling tanks into another country and trying to turn it to dust either.....


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:25 pm
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NATO then has to get involved

They don't. Not if it happens in a non-NATO country.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 12:51 pm
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Off you pop then, I'll hold your coat.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 1:07 pm
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.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 1:52 pm
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gofasterstripes
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I had an idea.

Seeing as, apparently, millions of people think this is an avoidable act of barbarism and should stop at once…

What if some of these multinational millions travelled to Ukraine and walked, in peaceful protest through the country? Walked to the battles and filled the areas? Would the Russian Army dare to fire on these people in their thousands or tens of thousands?

You'll get told to leave and if you don't you'll probably be designated an enemy combatant.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 2:08 pm
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https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/21/europe/russia-vladimir-putin-z-fifth-columnists-intl-cmd/index.html

I'm usually a bit sceptical of CNN tbh. But his seems an entirely plausible assessment.

The Russian people, Putin added, will "always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors, and simply spit them out like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouths, spit them out on the pavement."


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 2:54 pm
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This is a mad article about the last two journalists in Mariupol, the ones who took the photos of the bombed maternity hospital, who had to flee because the Russians were trying to hunt them down to stop more photos and news getting out.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 3:49 pm
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Incredible, that apnews article.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 5:12 pm
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Incredible, that apnews article.

I can't find the words. War is truly horrific. Unless you've been invaded - and we haven't been for a thousand years - you just cannot grasp what it means.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 5:14 pm
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Horrific isn’t it? Hard to believe people can even exist in those conditions. The feeling of dread that must accompany every waking minute is hard to conceive of…


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 5:52 pm
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What’s Chewkw’s expertise in Russian/Chinese policy etc.
Genuine question from a lurker on this thread

None whatsoever.
But I understand, speak (mandarin but not the CCP type) and know how they think.

Also in SE Asia most of the opinion from ordinary folks is "US" is behind current episode of implanting ideas into Ukrainian people and NATO/EU expansion. They support China but I don't ... so there you go. If US/NATO start to push Russia east they are going to survive no matter how hard the sanctions can be. Probably need to sanction half the world if they don't agree openly with US. At the moment most of the governments are "neutral".

I fear that would instigate massive escalation – it’s unlikely that Russia would stop hostilities (design or accident doesn’t even matter), and he’s then firing on NATO country’s civilians.
NATO then has to get involved, and no-one really knows where that ends up, but worst case is really, really bad…

Russia will not escalate unless they are attacked first. They do not have the technology to do so. With Russia it will only be land war. If NATO enter their land/space (vast country) there is a possibility minor nuke will be used, which in this case is still nuking their own land.

This is a mad article about the last two journalists in Mariupol, the ones who took the photos of the bombed maternity hospital, who had to flee because the Russians were trying to hunt them down to stop more photos and news getting out.

Terrible and Russia will continue until they get what they want.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 6:50 pm
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I can’t find the words. War is truly horrific. Unless you’ve been invaded – and we haven’t been for a thousand years – you just cannot grasp what it means.

It is Not easy to invade another country in 21 century unless they are linked by land. UK has the advantage of the sea as buffer zone just like USA. These are the two countries most difficult to invade. Nobody will even think about it.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 7:11 pm
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Chewk actually exemplifies a very good point

Hes repeating Fakenews Russia is deliberately targeting elsewhere

The majority of pro Russian disinformation, especially blaming Nato etc is directed not at the west but at the rest of the world

https://twitter.com/carljackmiller/status/1504896238826700800?t=dIq-wtJ-LII-0fYJEewd7Q&s=19


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 7:23 pm
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I have no idea how accurate this report is.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505613225525665794


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 7:31 pm
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Chewk actually exemplifies a very good point
Hes repeating Fakenews Russia is deliberately targeting elsewhere
The majority of pro Russian disinformation, especially blaming Nato etc is directed not at the west but at the rest of the world

I watch news from BBC/Channel 4 only while other sources are mainly analysing China CCP.
As for the Russia/Ukraine situation I can only deduce from their actions. Plenty of information online but I don't really read them. Can't be bothered really as the current situation is rather obvious which can be interpreted from both sides, which I do. The war is no good to everyone but the problem is that both sides are very determined which is a recipe for more suffering. Both sides do not want to back off and the result is what it is now.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 7:54 pm
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That’s a very good comment. Feels like there is a lot more death and suffering to come before this is resolved sadly.


 
Posted : 21/03/2022 8:16 pm
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