My view is that he wants at least half of Ukraine hence he is driving the people out by all means.
Agreed, he won’t be happy just linking the Crimea by land to Russia in the East, he also wants the whole of the coast line and a considerable area in the South, ie “New Russia”. What he wants might have already been changed by the people of Ukraine though. Maybe they can reduced his realistic ambitions further.
If Ukraine continues to resist he will push further to drive more people out even if it means Ukraine is a wasteland.
If they hadn’t have resisted, he would already have pushed further, and there would be twice as many refugees in the surrounding countries. And there would be no Ukraine. That may still come. Let’s hope not.
Well for balance, I only worked with one Ukranian, he was a very normal IT consultant type and quite a nice bloke.
I think it's gone beyond that now, and chewk makes some interesting points. (I never thought I would say that!)
Notice that putin is not attacking ex-soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, but is happy to pick on countries like Georgia and Ukraine...
Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it’ll bother this particular Godfather.
Apparently it's not gone down well. According to the BBC "a move Russia said was unforgivable". Meanwhile Russia bombed a theatre!
Well for balance, I only worked with one Ukranian, he was a very normal IT consultant type and quite a nice bloke.
I worked with a couple
One did a PhD project in our lab, she worked her arse off tbf
Anyway her Facebook posts are quite grim, she lives in Kyiv and her hatred of the Russians is now immense
I don't really get the 'buffer zone' argument. Wasn't Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone - a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO? If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be... NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.
Meanwhile Russia bombed a theatre!
A theatre sheltering a lot of children
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504165292511043591?s=20&t=_okNLw3-SW06dfhLkfd73g
They'd even written 'children' in Russian outside
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1504199975877632003?s=20&t=_okNLw3-SW06dfhLkfd73g
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1504141027879313412?s=20&t=_okNLw3-SW06dfhLkfd73g
There's only 1 hospital left in Mariupol and there's some footage from inside it that I won't post
Well let’s hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.
Well yeah - officially, they're allowed to close the Bosphorous 'in times of war'. So that could become interesting if and when a peace deal is signed. But for the time being at least, that should be possible?
I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument. Wasn’t Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone – a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO? If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be… NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.
Yeah that argument doesn't wash at all well!
I personaly think Putin wants Europe to over-react, to give him an excuse for more violence. despite the atrocites he has already comitted, and play straight into his narrative.
I think Europe is playing the game as well as it can in the face of a mad man.
A report I just read said that the theatre had an underground shelter, presumably a relic of the Cold War - let’s hope it is not as bad as it might have been.
I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument.
That's because it's nonsense. Putin isn't afraid of NATO so much as he's afraid of liberal democracy. His aim is to reintegrate the former Soviet states into a new Russian empire. He succeeded in Belarus. In Ukraine, the Ukrainian people rejected being a puppet state and turned to the EU. NATO membership was not on the cards, it was EU membership and democracy that set Putin off.
Claiming that Ukraine would be better off as a puppet state makes no sense. Ukrainians have rejected that and have chosen to fight. The Ukrainian army hasn't defected, neither have their TA units. They prefer to fight than to be subjugated by Russia.
This war is not about NATO "expansionism". It's about Putin wanting to subjugate Ukraine and launching a war after Ukrainians elected a democratic government and turned towards the EU.
"but capture half the country? Feels like a tall order to me."
If Putin wants half the country he doesn't necessarily have to capture it. In negotiations he could trade the land he now occupies in the South West and North of Kyiv for the as yet un captured land East of the river.
Not saying that's what's going to happen but I think it's a scenario that's been plausible since about day 4, when the capture of the entire country began to look less likely.
In terms of bargaining chips at the negotiating table, it would make more sense for Russia to attack more strategically important sites (ports and industrial cities etc) in the West, rather than try to occupy the vast, mostly agricultural lands yet to be invaded in the east.
I think it highly likely that Crimea, Luhansk, Dombas and a land corridor between them will be ceded to Russia. I think Putin sees them as in his pocket already. He's bludgeoning the cities remorslesly because he wants more than that, and probably needs more than that to claim it as any sort of victory back home. Half of Ukraine would constitute an enormous agricultural resource, (Ukraine is huge don't forget).
Peter Hitchens and Dr Mike Martin discussing Ukraine.
I'm sorry, but I'd rather take a fistful of rusty 6" nails and ask the local "problem drinker" to hammer them into my scrotum after imbibing a bottle of ouzo then to listen to Peter Hitchens.
I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument. Wasn’t Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone – a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO?
Yes, Ukraine was a buffer zone until they decided that wanted to join NATO.
If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be… NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.
That's not the true Russia so still a buffer zone.
Remember Russia has seen their "empire" reduced from Soviet Union to Russia. They see their position/land slowly diminished and the counter balance of power slowly tilted away. When NATO slowly encroached on their neighbours they could see NATO moving east into their territory and eventually will cross the red line. Although a country with the largest landmass situation can easily turn against those in power and their way of life. They know the softly softly approach would not work because that's the tactics used by their opponents. Hence, their approach is direct and to the point.
Putin isn’t afraid of NATO so much as he’s afraid of liberal democracy.
Yeap, I totally agree with that. Liberal democracy is a Trojan horse and he knows that. The fundamental of liberal democracy is individual rights as defined by West, while in the East or Russia such concept of liberal democracy is being imposed upon them. Hence, the Blob's view that the world must be "created" in their image with them in charge.
Yes, Ukraine was a buffer zone until they decided that wanted to join
NATOthe EU.
FTFY. What triggered the invasion back in 2014 was Ukrainian voters rejecting closer ties with Russia in favour of closer ties with the EU. It was nothing to do with NATO, it was about liberal democracy.
FTFY. What triggered the invasion back in 2014 was Ukrainian voters rejecting closer ties with Russia in favour of closer ties with the EU. It was nothing to do with NATO, it was about liberal democracy.
The question is where did they get the idea or if anyone funded the campaign?
Remember US sent the contras back to South America to topple the governments there? I am not saying that was the case in 2014 but there must be something that triggered it.
Hence, the Blob’s view that the world must be “created” in their image with them in charge.
There is no USA “Blob”. There has been an extending of offers of trade and cooperation towards former Warsaw Pact countries by the EU, sometimes with the support of the USA, sometimes with them opposed to it, depending on who was elected to high office over there. The main help offered to Ukraine by the USA itself (with the UK) over the years was to persuade and assist them to decommission their nuclear arsenal, and send the warheads to Russia, so that the country would not be a threat in future to Russia or other European countries (or the world).
inkster - I'll restate my view of what putin wants from any 'negotiation' and add that any agreement with him isn't worth the paper it's written on.
He wants to save face and present any agreement as a win – I think that means 4 main objectives:
– russia to keep most territorial gains
– russia not required to pay reparations
– Ukraine to drop it’s aspiration to join NATO
– Ukraine to drop it’s aspiration to join EUI have no connection with Ukraine but I cannot see any of these being acceptable to Zelensky – with possible exception of no reparations.
Despite reports to the contrary I’m not convinced Ukraine will drop their NATO wish.
Nobody is imposing liberal democracy on Russia. Nor for that matter, are they imposing it on Ukraine. Also, just as a further reminder, Ukraine isn’t Russia.
He wants all of Ukraine.
He has wanted the USSR back for years he openly says it has written about it. his legacy project to the motherland.
It's gone to ruin he has bankrupt his own people by becoming the worlds richest man and now a war criminal.
China must be licking it's lips at getting Russia into debt now no one else is going to lend Russian banks cash or prop up the stock market when (if) it opens.
The worlds largest country won't even have an international flight operation as no one is going to lease jets to them.
Hardly a master tactical mastermind.
I do think he will try and drag the EU in now or at least have a go at it I don't think failed war mongering is going sit well with him.
There is no “Blob”. There has been an extending of offers of trade and cooperation towards former Warsaw Pact countries by the EU, sometimes with the support of the USA, sometimes with them opposed to it, depending on who was elected to high office over there
Trading is fine but when their political influence is exerted further that is where Russia does not feel comfortable.
Nobody is imposing liberal democracy on Russia. Nor for that matter, are they imposing it on Ukraine. Also, just as a further reminder, Ukraine isn’t Russia.
As I said earlier, it does not matter whether they are imposed or not on Ukraine as the "tide" is moving east towards Russia. The only way Russia knows how to response is via force as they perceive a threat.
He has wanted the USSR back for years he openly says it has written about it. his legacy project to the motherland.
No, he understand that is not achievable and he does not want to see Russia also turning.
China must be licking it’s lips at getting Russia into debt now no one else is going to lend Russian banks cash or prop up the stock market when (if) it opens.
China is playing a very long game. Time is on their side. Remember China claimed they discovered America first long before the Europeans?
Do Not push Russia towards the Chinese CCP. Solve the problem in Ukraine without China.
The only way Russia knows how to response is via force as they perceive a threat.
This is true. But what is that “threat”? It is not a military threat on Russia. It is a threat on restricting and resisting Putin’s plans to expand the RF by force. It is the threat of the people in bordering states becoming an example to the people of Russia.
This is true. But what is that “threat”? It is not a threat on Russia, it is a threat on Putin’s plans to expand the RF towards Germany.
Putin and Russia are the "same".
No, he will Not expand towards Germany. He might be brutal but I doubt an ex-KGB can be that naive. Besides moving west means entering the western hemisphere which is the domain of the superpower the American and they (Putin will be) are far far away from home. They will become fish in a barrel.
A simple question, would EU let a battalion of Chinese army stationed in Sweden? Just a few soldiers with pistols. Is that a threat?
No, he will Not expand towards Germany.
That’s exactly what he’s doing. If you mean he won’t make it as far as Germany, I suspect you are right. But if I lived in Poland or Lithuania right now, I would be looking to move, rather than take that risk.
The rest of your post, I don’t understand. Are Sweden asking China to defend them? Who from?
The rest of your post, I don’t understand. Are Sweden asking China to defend them? Who from?
I am trying to illustrate a point that both sides do not want their territory to be encroached no matter how peaceful they can be. i.e. America/Nato/West do not want Russia in their backyard nor do Russia wants them to be in his backyard. Both sides will see that as a threat no matter how both sides try to explain.
But if I lived in Poland or Lithuania right now, I would be looking to move, rather than take that risk.
No strategic significance to Russia.
I just hope the Ukraine/Russia war can be solved asap.
America/Nato/West do not want Russia in their backyard
They don’t have much choice. Russia has bordered NATO since its formation. There has never been an EU without a land border with Russia. And the USA is just across the water.
No strategic significance to Russia.
Safe for you to say sat further west.
I just hope the Ukraine/Russia war can be solved asap.
We all do. Sadly, whatever is agreed and signed when this stage of the Russian war on Ukraine is over, it quiet clearly won’t be the end. See 2008, 2014 etc. Putin will be back for more, and occupation will cause ongoing conflict.
They don’t have much choice. Russia has boarded NATO since its formation. There has never been an EU without a land border with Russia. And the USA is just across the water.
But Ukraine is the last straw ...
Safe for you to say sat further west.
There is simply no evidence of them moving into a NATO member state. None. In fact they have been shrinking (influence).
A few week ago we were listening to…
There is simply no evidence of them moving into Ukraine. None. In fact they have been shrinking (influence).
But I hope, and I think, you are right, and that other countries like Lithuania and Poland have nothing to worry about. If I lived there I’d be getting my family out though, rather than wait to be proven wrong.
do not want their territory to be encroached
Ukraine is not Russia. No one has encroached on Russian territory.
Ukraine is not Russia. No one has encroached on Russian territory.
Nor is Cuba on American soil yet Cuba is still under embargo.
Crikey... The old chwewks is back.
I withdraw my previous comments.
Russia has invaded another country. That's it. That's where we are at now.
The question is where did they get the idea or if anyone funded the campaign?
Remember US sent the contras back to South America to topple the governments there? I am not saying that was the case in 2014 but there must be something that triggered it.
They got the idea from looking at how life in EU countries was much better than in Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine was run by corrupt oligarchs backed by Russia. There were mass protests and the government fell. This angered Putin greatly and he invaded Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine still has massive problems but it has made huge progress on fighting corruption and the army is firmly behind a democratic government.
This happened because there was huge popular support for liberal democracy and joining the EU. It was nothing to do with being manipulated by foreign influence. If you have any evidence that foreign money was behind it, please share it, otherwise drop it. The "just asking questions" thing is just a way of implying that something happened without providing any evidence.
Putin needed an explanation for why Ukraine turned away from Russia. The best his propaganda people could come up with was shadowy foreign agents funding a campaign against Russia. The problem for Russia is that Putin has been in an information bubble for many years and believed his own propaganda - his advisers would have been too scared to tell him the truth so blaming "foreign money" was an easy excuse for them. Putin's delusion that Ukrainians actually liked him is why Russia thought they would drive over the border and be greeted as liberators by grateful Ukrainians. The reality of being greeted by anti-tank missiles and machine guns and crowds of civilians protesting the Russian invasion is a clear demonstration that the pro-EU campaign was driven by a Ukrainian desire for self-determination, not by foreign money.
The foreign money "question" is just a Russian propaganda line that has no evidence. If you're going to raise nonsense like that, please show the evidence for what you're saying.
Russia has invaded another country. That’s it. That’s where we are at now.
Russia is actually exercising their own "Monroe Doctrine". i.e. no foreign power in the backyard.
Also refer to the Bucharest Summit 2008 i.e. NATO expansion. (Summary from Wiki)
Russian explicitly says No but they still let it slides until now.
They got the idea from looking at how life in EU countries was much better than in Ukraine and Russia.
Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown, then it snowballed from there ...
Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown.
The President fled when it became obvious that the country turned against him. He tried to suppress protests with force but failed. Ukrainian soldiers seem a bit less keen on turning machine guns on civilians than Russian soldiers. Ukraine now has a democratically elected government that favours closer ties to the EU. Putin's anger was not that a coup occurred, it was that a popular revolution overthrew a corrupt pro-Russian government and replaced it with a much more liberal democracy.
This is the sort of thing that Ukrainians voted against. The idea that Putin has any legitimate interest in Ukraine is nonsense. Ukrainians knew just how bad Putin was and they wanted no part of a Russian Empire led by a murderous tyrant.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1504275036655521798
The President fled when it became obvious that the country turned against him.
I bet he was fearing for his life but now everyone fears for their lives. If force could be used at that time then force is being used again this time. Democracy is not their style in that region.
Bottom line is No foreign forces in the backyard regardless.
Democracy is not their style in that region.
It is now. That's why Putin is so angry. Democracies popping up all over Eastern Europe, showing that there is an alternative to brutal repression. Or are you saying that Ukrainians have no right to live in a liberal democracy because their country used to be corrupt and authoritarian? In many countries around the world, democracies have replaced dictatorships. Are you saying that those democratic governments are not legitimate because democracy was not the "style" in those countries so they should revert to being dictatorships?
If Tom Nichols is worried, I'm worried.
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1504286320729939971
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1504287275777236993
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1504288228005793797
Bottom line is No foreign forces in the backyard regardless.
But it's not their backyard... it's next door's garden. Any forces there are going to be foreign - all countries have their own militaries, some bigger than others. The only reason it's an issue is if you plan to invade them, or you fear that they are going to invade you.
The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse. The best way to prevent NATO expansion IS FOR RUSSIA TO STOP **** ING INVADING PEOPLE.
The only reason that Putin has invaded Ukraine is to try to bolster his popularity within Russia. Putin has invented this crisis with the express purpose of casting himself as a strongman leader, and the good guy.
As it turns out - he's completely **** ed it: The international response has been 10x what he must have expected, he's going to have to make some serious concessions to get those sanctions lifted (which he'll fear will make him look weak) and the Russian armed forces are being made to look like a bunch of incompetent/brutal arseholes..... so pretty much the opposite of what he hoped he'd achieve.
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/1504349328323883008
This is an interesting take. Putin essentially channelling the line "If you're a citizen of the world, you're a citizen of nowhere" line to a somewhat more chilling effect than the May-bot could achieve
The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse
You can keep telling people all you like, if they're not prepared to hear it...But as you point out, for Putin's adventurism in Ukraine to work he's reliant on the West's military organsation to do what it normally does when he destroys another country; absolutely nothing. Thus sort of revealing what he really think's of NATO.; that it's a talking shop and poses him no threat whatsoever.
Something going on Belarus allegedly
https://mobile.twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1504194054585831429
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1504194054585831429?s=20&t=8v0qjAerFDtTIofqUJVVqQ
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1504268811016540164
New York times reporting thousands of Russain dead, and MOD intelligence breifing saying that the Russian advance has stalled on all fronts.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1504336242997174274
The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse. The best way to prevent NATO expansion IS FOR RUSSIA TO STOP **** ING INVADING PEOPLE.
NATO and EU expansion has always looked more of a political failure on Moscows part (a failure to bring countries towards Moscow willingly) than anything else. It's why they've repeatedly defaulted to military intervention to force Moscows goals.
