kato - my understanding is that neither Russia nor the US are members of or recognise the ICJ and ICC so the ICJ ruling is symbolic.
Even if Russia were members it's unlikely they would comply as democratic and legal norms mean nothing to putin.
timbog160
Full MemberDidn’t we gift some Saxons to the Ukrainians a few years back?
No wonder they're doing so well, with Uhtred son of Uhtred getting involved
what happened to that convoy approaching Odessa yesterday?
Didn’t we gift some Saxons to the Ukrainians a few years back? Beggars can’t be choosers and all that but even then there are limits 😂
I feel even more sorry for them now, they were shocking. When we moved into the mechanised role at Tidworth we were told that they were originally designed for export, but were so crap no one wanted them, they even had to be up armoured to do public order duties in Northern Ireland!
Unless it’s a massive bluff from putin, and he plans to double down, he’s finished, it’s just a matter of time.
I agree.
The bit that concerns is every day means hundreds, even thousands, of deaths and more war crimes being committed.
When I landed in Kabul during the Afghan Conflict they tried to drive us to the British base downtown in Saxons. We declined the kind offer & slept in Hammocks down the back of my herc instead!
The airport also had the benefit of each ISAF nation stationed there having its own bar. The Estonian field hospital bar was my local.
what happened to that convoy approaching Odessa yesterday?
Don't know, but I'd have thought that a few tanks parked on the coastline would cause a lot of trouble to the landing craft.
Let alone soldiers armed with javelins!
(Although they might be the wrong sort of weapon for dispatching landing craft.)
BBC are reporting that Russians bombed a theatre where 1000-1200 civilians where sheltering.
Are they really complete c++ts or is the Russian intelligence/artillery simply not up-to-the-job and this was a "mistake"?? 😳
Both
I can only imagine the horror of an amphibious assault onto a defended beach with modern weaponry.
I liked saxons, they were a piece of piss to fix. Electrically anyway.....
Based on the good old MJ weren’t they? Just googled some reports and the gist of it seems to be the Ukrainians thought they were ‘ok’ if used in very specific circumstances…
In other news reports Ukrainian SF have apparently freed Ivan Federov, the kidnapped mayor of Melitopol. Brilliant news if so and really does make you wonder what the Russians are playing at..
Unless it’s a massive bluff from putin, and he plans to double down, he’s finished, it’s just a matter of time.
No, I don't think he bluffing. It is his way of saving face. Note that Putin has been saying no NATO in his backyard even before 2014. He kept telling NATO/West that he/Russia was very uncomfortable with NATO/West in his/Russia backyard i.e. encroaching on his territory. He was even telling the reporters/media about this many years ago but the media was just bemused at his reaction.
If the Russia/Ukraine war needs to stop then NATO/West really need to assure Putin he has his buffer zone.
Remember Cuban Missile crisis? American went all the way to prevent Russia having a foothold in Western hemisphere. The American tried all tricks to prevent that until today. The same reaction Russian is having now.
What Putin doing now is to empty the cities of people to create his "buffer zone".
What the world does not want to do now is to push Russia towards China. China is no push over and they have time on their hands.
Do Not encourage countries bordering Russia to join NATO because Russia will not have it unless NATO wants full scale war. Russia is not trying to expand but they also do not like NATO coming near to them.
If Ukraine insists on joining NATO then the world must prepare for a harder and longer war.
Remember the US Foreign Office blob? There is a reason why all the US administrations (both Republicans and Democrats) called the US Foreign Office blob?
I can only imagine the horror of an amphibious assault onto a defended beach with modern weaponry
https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1503309191523536896
NATO stuff is BS (admittedly only my opinion) - Poland, Latvia, Estonia all have borders with Russia and have been in NATO for years. Putin basically sees Ukraine as part of Russia though, and I think genuinely believes that. But I agree ultimate outcome is probably some kind of commitment not to join NATO in return for security guarantees. Of course this is exactly what Ukraine had when it gave up its nukes and look how that has worked out, but at least it might stop the killing for a time.
Putin basically sees Ukraine as part of Russia though, and I think genuinely believes that.
Regardless, that is his "territory". Putin/Russia has never invaded a NATO state but Ukraine's intention is too close for comfort as Putin is seeing this "territory" shrinking or NATO expanding.
But I agree ultimate outcome is probably some kind of commitment not to join NATO in return for security guarantees.
Yes, not join NATO especially countries bordering or neighbour to Russia.
Of course this is exactly what Ukraine had when it gave up its nukes and look how that has worked out, but at least it might stop the killing for a time.
Putin/Russia would leave them alone as long as there is no sign of wanting to join NATO.
If the NATO/West keeps encouraging Ukrainian people to stand their ground, then be prepared to see many more suffering. Do Not push the people toward the angry bear.
I feel even more sorry for them now, they were shocking. When we moved into the mechanised role at Tidworth we were told that they were originally designed for export, but were so crap no one wanted them, they even had to be up armoured to do public order duties in Northern Ireland
My understanding is that the Ukrainians quite like them, they work as a light armoured taxi and can do 70mph, cheap and cheerful, fit for the role they were employed in
I agree that is probably the key thing at this moment, but he will keep coming back. Even today he admitted that would not be the ‘final solution’. I don’t know if those words have the same meaning in Russian or whether something was lost in translation!
Apologies if this was posted earlier but it did make me chuckle..
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I agree that is probably the key thing at this moment, but he will keep coming back. Even today he admitted that would not be the ‘final solution’. I don’t know if those words have the same meaning in Russian or whether something was lost in translation!
Apologies if this was posted earlier but it did make me chuckle..
There are some areas that are of strategic importance to Russia/Putin and he considers that "his territory". Do you not think Putin/Russia can also feel threaten?
He does not want Tomahawks stationed next to him (because NATO can have them stationed there) put it this way. Putin actually mentioned Tomahawks to the media.
Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it'll bother this particular Godfather.
Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it’ll bother this particular Godfather.
Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.
Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.
I don't think he did.
I don’t think he did.
Check this article ... NYTimes Op-ed by Putin Sept 11, 2013.
If the Russia/Ukraine war needs to stop then NATO/West really need to assure Putin he has his buffer zone.
The problem with Russian buffer zones is that they appear to come with Russian backed puppet governments against the wishes of their populations. Why on Earth do you suppose there has been an almighty scramble to achieve the requirements to join NATO by many ex-USSR countries?
If he withdraws, he’ll only have shown that he’s not the mafia mastermind we thought, he’s a deluded madman chasing decades-old USSR dreams. That he’s surrounded himself with yes-men who have enabled this shit-show.
Maybe some of those "yes men" have been waiting for him to do something stupid.
to create his “buffer zone”
Russia borders a hell of a lot of countries… so… either…
a) all those countries should feel threatened by Russia if not heavily defended or aligned to a major world power
b) it’s an excuse to increase the RF by force, bringing a significant region into his empire, and look strong at home
[ EDIT: it’s not really either/or, is it ]
Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.
Well, he absolutely tried to have one. A lot has happened since then. Obama was naive/hopeful.
Russia is not trying to expand
Chewkw - I've read your posts on this thread with interest - its been good to have your perspective, but ^^^^ is bobbins. Putin is imperialist and wants vassal states surrounding him - Syria, Belarus, the enclaves in Georgia/Moldova/Ukraine.
Russia doesn't own all these other countries, and they don't want him there. If he can't see that his behaviour towards his neighbours pushes them into the arms of NATO to avoid being invaded, then he is as stupid as he is crazy.
The problem with Russian buffer zones is that they appear to come with Russian backed puppet governments against the wishes of their populations.
You can have a puppet government or a full scale war. Choose.
Why on Earth do you suppose there has been an almighty scramble to achieve the requirements to join NATO by many ex-USSR countries?
Because they have a big bear next to them and they are afraid of being devoured so that balance of power must be maintained. But when that "balance" of power starts to creep into the bear's territory that's when the bear takes a swipe at them. If they are not that close to the bear then the bear cannot reach them.
Russia borders a hell of a lot of countries… so… either…
a) all those countries should feel threatened by Russia if not heavily defended or aligned to a major world power
b) it’s an excuse to increase the RF by force, bringing a significant region into his empire, and look strong at home
They have No strategic importance to Russia unlike Ukraine.
Well, he absolutely tried to have one. A lot has happened since then. Obama was naive/hopeful.
Actually it is the Blob that dictated to Obama what he could/could not do ...
Putin is imperialist and wants vassal states surrounding him – Syria, Belarus, the enclaves in Georgia/Moldova/Ukraine.
Apart from Syria the rest are strategic importance to Russia.
Notice NATO did not even bother about Syria? They actually "give" Syria to Russia because it is of no strategic importance to NATO.
Russia doesn’t own all these other countries, and they don’t want him there. If he can’t see that his behaviour towards his neighbours pushes them into the arms of NATO to avoid being invaded, then he is as stupid as he is crazy.
Own or not does Not even come into the equation. If they are neighbouring to a big bear they better not "poke" the bear. Nobody will come to their aid unless they want a full scale war.
They have No strategic importance to Russia unlike Ukraine.
You’ve posted a lot of good content in this thread, but that last line makes no sense. Any of the bordering countries are of strategic importance, if the aim is to have a “buffer region”.
[ EDIT: I see you’ve added another line. Don’t start retreating back into your “the Blob” type language, keep engaging on ideas, please. ]
Because they have a big bear next to them and they are afraid of being devoured so that balance of power must be maintained.
So how will that be done without Russia "devouring" them?
Glad in Ireland we never accepted our fate of living next to a Big Bear.
Nobody poked the bear - the bear stuck it’s head in the hornets nest (sorry couldn’t think of an analogy) and now can’t get its head out, even though it is being stung over and over.
You’ve posted a lot of good content in this thread, but that last line makes no sense. Any of the bordering countries are of strategic importance, if the aim is to have a “buffer region”.
He does have a point though. Ukraine is important beyond being a buffer - Putin took Crimea (back then), partly because the naval base in Sevastopol gives him great access to the Black Sea / Mediterranean etc, and obviously it doesn't freeze in winter like most russian ports. So getting a land bridge to Crimea is going to be one of his main aims, as and when he climbs down from full-on occupation. Also, it has a lot of natural resources, importance for agriculture, etc. Estonia et al don't really have those advantages.
So we should sit back and let Putin expand as and where he pleases?
Putin took Crimea (back then), partly because the naval base in Sevastopol gives him great access to the Black Sea / Mediterranean etc,
Well let's hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.
Putin's plan was to take the entire country
His 3 day decapitation collapsed about the time his paratroopers were massacred thinking they could take the airport outside Kyiv on the first night
He might settle for the regions he has taken so far, for now, but he wants it all and he'll be back for the rest.
Notice NATO did not even bother about Syria? They actually “give” Syria to Russia because it is of no strategic importance to NATO.
The NATO intervention unraveled when labour voted against intervention and thus the lead partner for the US said no
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/03/10/ed-miliband-should-hang-head-shame-should/
Tonight has been an education.
Went out for a pizza and a beer with an Italian mate. I didn’t know before but his father was Ukrainian.
His take on all this;
Stalin was in league with Hitler when the Germans invaded Poland and they’ve been Nazi’s ever since.
In his eyes Putin is just the continuation of Stalin
His Ukrainian father was captured fighting the Russians when they invaded Ukraine and then conscripted to fight the Germans, as were many others. It was that or the Siberian Mines to die
They’ve always been waiting for this. They always knew that Russia would invade Ukraine it was just a case of when
His opinion of the Russian people would demolish any sweat filter.
They are a breed apart and they are utter ****s!!
Glad in Ireland we never accepted our fate of living next to a Big Bear.
Which side of your analogy do the nutters still setting bombs off and shooting people sit on?
I would suggest that Ireland and it's history is very different to Ukraine's
Don’t start retreating back into your “the Blob” type language, keep engaging on ideas, please.
Their foreign policy is a mess caused by the Blob (Foreign office establishment).
So how will that be done without Russia “devouring” them?
Be neutral with no threat to Russia i.e. no Tomahawk station.
So we should sit back and let Putin expand as and where he pleases?
The case for Ukraine now is really to think hard because NATO/West will not intervene to escalate the situation. NATO/West will only provide background voice but not much beyond that. Ukraine is more or less on their own and the ordinary folks are going to hate the NATO/West now having bought into the "dream". Yes, they hate Russia/Putin too but many will feel cheated.
Well let’s hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.
Turkey is a bit vague but I doubt they want to trigger any displeasure with Russia. They seem to be comfortable with both sides.
Putin’s plan was to take the entire country
Yes, Putin thought he could walk in without realising Ukraine would resist so strongly.
His 3 day decapitation collapsed about the time his paratroopers were massacred thinking they could take the airport outside Kyiv on the first night
That will make him more determined because he knows he cannot afford to lose his buffer zone. He will fight no matter the cost and even ask the Chinese CCP for drones etc.
He might settle for the regions he has taken so far, for now, but he wants it all and he’ll be back for the rest.
My view is that he wants at least half of Ukraine hence he is driving the people out by all means. If Ukraine continues to resist he will push further to drive more people out even if it means Ukraine is a wasteland.
Which side of your analogy do the nutters still setting bombs off and shooting people sit on?
I would suggest that Ireland and it’s history is very different to Ukraine’s
i would suggest you need to read some history and concentrate on the history of Ireland from another perspective - there are many parallels. Invasion, occupation, genocide. Domination by a giant superpower that saw its neighbour as being a colony.
If Ukraine is continuously occupied nutters will occur as an insurgence.
They are a breed apart and they are utter ****s!!
Ah, you've met my old Finance Director from Moscow...
He’s dreaming if that’s true - he’s not driving the people out. His forces are all over the place - one minute trying to capture Kyiv, the next the Black Sea coast, and a land bridge. He’s used up his entire initial force and is now having to call in mercenaries and troops from all over his empire. He has no air superiority, and all the time the Ukrainians are getting more and more weapons and aid pumped to them and are clearly better trained, better motivated. Don’t get me wrong I have no doubt there will be continued massive destruction, but capture half the country? Feels like a tall order to me.
If there is no ceasefire it will just be a long and bloody war of attrition while his economy disintegrates.
Be neutral with no threat to Russia i.e. no Tomahawk station.
Desperately naive
Putin wants Ukraine, he sees it as part of Russia
He wants Finland back too
He is so convinced it's part of Russia he believed his own propaganda that the Ukrainians would welcome his troops with open arms
Instead he's pummeling the country into rubble and throwing his own troops into a meat grinder to get it : 1000s dead, many more injured, over 1000 captured
Don’t get me wrong I have no doubt there will be continued massive destruction, but capture half the country?
No water, no heating, no food, nothing available for people apart from constant explosion or building being destroyed, nobody can last long in those situation.
