Chewie’s points are I feel false and illogical, BUT they do serve to illustrate what Putin and some of his people believe. His speech yesterday was completely bonkers - it can’t have escaped the attention of his people that he is becoming more and more deranged. Will be difficult to see where this goes next. People keep talking about an off ramp but I can’t see that on the current Russian demands, Ukraine won’t accept it - why would they as there seems to be currently no risk of Putin imposing his will by force. So, either Russia manages to ‘unstall ‘ its military operation, or Putin has to compromise. I think we’re in for a long haul…
But as you point out, for Putin’s adventurism in Ukraine to work he’s reliant on the West’s military organsation to do what it normally does when he destroys another country; absolutely nothing.
No, I think he's now trying to lure NATO into intervening, hence the deliberate targeting of civilians. The one thing he has left that will unite Russian public opinion behind him is NATO joining combat against Russia. This would confirm all the propaganda he's spouted about NATO secretly aiming to destroy Russia.
NATO and EU expansion has always looked more of a political failure on Moscows part (a failure to bring countries towards Moscow willingly)
Exactly. Russia never offered those countries a deal worth considering. It saw them as subservient to Russia, not sovereign countries to be treated as political equals. Russia could have been like Germany is in the EU, a powerful member of an economic bloc that dominates the economic sphere but doesn't need to send troops and tanks to keep the others in line. But that would have required renouncing the dream of being a military superpower again. Putin doesn't want Russia to be an important country in the region, he wants it to be a global equal to the U.S. The aspirations of other Eastern European countries carry no weight for him, that's why they turned to the West.
No, I think he’s now trying to lure NATO into intervening
yes, now he certainly is. At the beginning of the "special operations" I think he was banking on NATO absolutely not intervening. Classic hubris of the autocrat really, underestimate your enemy, don't plan properly, believe your own hype.
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=IYeQmqRsFkOQlnoQmhPecw
I've no idea what's going on with that
No, a flurry on twitter last night , now nothing.
No, I think he’s now trying to lure NATO into intervening, hence the deliberate targeting of civilians.
No, he is not trying to lure NATO/West into escalation. He is going to flatten the place because it it is cost effective without having to maintain the place. Invading the place is "easy" but maintaining the place needs money. Flatten the place is much more cost effective. Hence, driving out/terrorising the population is the best way forward because Russia/Putin does not need to "feed" the people, considering the size of their economy.
I’ve no idea what’s going on with that
Supposedly a military exercise, they just forgot to warn the country this was happening.
I wonder if intimidation of the Belarusian people is an aim here - there have been protests, there have been military refusals to operate apparently, they seem to have more access to information than many Russians....
Have they accused the Ukrainians of firing missiles into Belarus yet? Not that this would be unjustified, given those that have been fired from their airspace into Ukraine.
Feels more like a way to shore up Belarussian support for the war, and domestic support in Russia. How convenient for Putin that he doesn't even have to blow up his own people like he did in the run-up to Chechnya, he has Belarus as fodder for his propaganda.
Belarus are drafting soldiers and more equipment moving closer to border
https://twitter.com/idemetrescu/status/1504387920370745346?t=EKM1mmSaMsT3ZG_BULQ_hw&s=19
Also moving battle groups from Georgia
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1504058528188743687?t=wP7FCNczEMl12F3z1TZ0QQ&s=19
And as far away as Siberia
https://twitter.com/IntelRogue/status/1504244317140959238?t=glYFVgzsgp2ycwQQ8ROMMg&s=19
Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he's leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it
Which is quite remarkable
I don’t know - Lukashenko must be feeling pretty nervous right now. He is 100% dependant on Russian troops and money for his continued survival. Was reading about the rebuilding of Aleppo yesterday - it is being paid for by Chechnya! But Chechnya has a very small economy, something like 80% of its income is from….Russian subsidies!
Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!
Background on Belarus - Lukashenko doesn't really want to do it. Belarusians don't want him to do it. But he might have to.
https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-ukraine-war-russia-alexander-lukashenko-dodges-weaves/
There’s a good reason for that caution. Joining the attack against Ukraine would be hugely unpopular — a survey found that only 3 percent of Belarusians support such an idea, according to Ryhor Astapenia, who leads Belarus Initiative at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program — and it could break the military, which is one of the key pillars keeping Lukashenko in power.
“The Belarusian army has never fought anywhere, the army is not prepared for external conflicts,” said Valery Sakhashchyk, a retired army lieutenant colonel and former commander of the 38th Airborne Brigade based in the city of Brest near the border with Ukraine. “Lukashenko is far from being a fool. He understands that there is a large risk that the Belarusian army will not succeed, that it will suffer heavy losses, and then his last supporters could very well turn away from him — and that would be a disaster [for Lukashenko].”
Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!
The real risk would be from China
They'd love Siberia resources.....
Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown
Followed by elections in 2019 which Zelenskyy won by a landslide. Oh and for all Putin's idiotic drivel about cleansing neo nazis, far right groups polled about 5% in that election.
The real risk would be from China
They’d love Siberia resources…..
...and they believe much of it is in fact rightfully theirs, and was sneakily 'stolen' from them in 1858:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Aigun
Aleppo yesterday – it is being paid for by Chechnya! But Chechnya has a very small economy, something like 80% of its income is from….Russian subsidies!
Chechnya has a strong connection to some of the middle eastern countries so the funds might come from there.
Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!
You know how the Russian's have logistics problems in Ukraine? I've heard Siberia is quite large and there aren't a lot of gas stations along the way.
Oh and for all Putin’s idiotic drivel about cleansing neo nazis,
At least one senior neo nazi has died during the invasion. Vladimir Zhoga commander of the neo-nazi Sparta battalion died.
Okay so he was on the Russians side but thats a minor detail.
Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he’s leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it
I don’t think that’s actually true… but he could if he wanted. Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?
…and they believe much of it is in fact rightfully theirs, and was sneakily ‘stolen’ from them in 1858:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Aigun/blockquote >
Yes, the old guards are still sore about this as far as the news I received from far east source. For the moment they let it be but I foresee them wanting it back in future.
Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?
China is onboard but I don't think they plan to invade Russia an inch. They don't have to as they have other means in exchange. i.e. finance and military hardware etc.
Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?
No one, Russia for various reasons shown by Napoleon and Hitler is pretty invasion proof from the west, and given that there's literally nothing worth invading for in the east, why bother? I mean the geography of Russia does give it issues, but of 99% problems, invasion ain't one as that well know strategist JZ notes.
Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he’s leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it
I don’t think that’s actually true… but he could if he wanted. Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?
No-one would invade. But there are plenty of nationalist areas (notably Chechnya, South Ossetia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, etc etc) that need to be kept in line with military force. By moving troops out of those places he's potentially increasing the risk of trouble/destabilisation at home.
Russian armor heading in the direction of Ukraine, apparently filmed in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia.
Krasnoyarsk is like 4000 miles from Kyiv! That's several days travel, plus time to unload, move, fuel, generally prepare the tanks and get them where they need to be. A week or two before these lot are involved?
potentially increasing the risk of trouble/destabilisation at home
Very good point. Thanks.
Yes hadn’t thought of that - I think especially in the South they are deploying quite a few of their police style militia units too, so it has to be a bit of a risk.
I’m not sure how more armour will help them. If this war has proved anything it is that, on this battlefield at least, the infantryman is King, and the Russians seem massively reluctant to engage on foot, hence lots of pictures of destroyed tanks. A tank without infantry support is just a sitting duck.
And yes I’m just an armchair lieutenant but even the most basic reading of tactics will tell you this.
I’m not sure how more armour will help them.
after 3 weeks of fighting they probably need to rotate out units for refitting and rest.
A simple question, would EU let a battalion of Chinese army stationed in Sweden? Just a few soldiers with pistols. Is that a threat?
To return to chewie’s post earlier that nobody has directly answered.
If that is what a democratic Swedish government decided on then, yes. The EU would allow it. How could they stop it? But the problem with that hypothetical question is that it would never ever happen without a dramatic change in the geo-political environment. Why would Sweden do that? Because they were afraid of an EU invasion? Because they wanted to invade the EU? Because they decided that the Chinese political system was so fantastic that they wanted to remodel in the country on the Chinese example? None of these things are even remotely likely.
This shows up why the Putin excuse is so risible.. NATO has no intention of attacking Russia, has never had an intention of attacking Russia.. The whole ‘buffer state’ argument is a charade to disguise the fact that this is all about Russian Nationalism & a desire to regain their empire while turning the clock back to when Russia hadn’t lost the Cold War. Putin’s speech yesterday attests to that.
I’m not sure how more armour will help them
It won't. There's a somewhat famous after-war report that outlines the difference in battlefield logistics between 21st Ordnance a Group and their German equivalents in the Normandy campaign, In it, one officer neatly sums up that as well as guns and ammo and all the other essential war fighting materiel such as replacement parts, the greatest effect on morale of troops was the fact that they could go back from the front line at regular intervals, get proper food, a ration of beer, have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants, something the Germans singularly failed to do.
The Russians in Ukraine have been war fighting now with no break for 3 weeks, at that point it doesn't matter if your the "most powerful army in the world" TM the effectiveness of your soldiers is probably decayed to such a level that they're ineffective now, already. Replacement units coming all the way from Siberia is too late. It's a sign of how little Putin thinks of his soldiers; and these are the "elite" units
so it has to be a bit of a risk
And that speech clipped up the page... he clearly has "trouble/destabilisation at home" on his mind. He's talking about "spitting out" Russians not Ukrainians there. Depressing times ahead for the Russian people.
It’s a sign of how little Putin thinks of his soldiers; and these are the “elite” units
Are they the elite, or are the elite actually placed in internal security roles? And the army kept weaker to reduce the power of the army leadership?
My understanding is that the security forces have the power. Their job is to stop the army from overthrowing Putin. Dictators always have to be wary of army officers so the officer corps is composed of people who have shown unflinching loyalty, which means never disagreeing, which basically means incompetent fools. They elite forces like the paratroopers, but their job is actually to subdue the civilians of the areas they invade. That's why they got slaughtered when they met a real army. They also have regular (contract) soldiers, but they are apparently treated appallingly badly. Then they have conscripts. The life of a conscript is a miserable hell. It looks like a lot of Russian soldiers have just abandoned their equipment and deserted in Ukraine. Not really surprising.
Paranoia and fear surely must be ratcheting up in all levels of Russian and Belarussian society and evidently right to the top.
There’s a somewhat famous after-war report that outlines the difference in battlefield logistics between 21st Ordnance a Group and their German equivalents in the Normandy campaign, In it, one officer neatly sums up that as well as guns and ammo and all the other essential war fighting materiel such as replacement parts, the greatest effect on morale of troops was the fact that they could go back from the front line at regular intervals, get proper food, a ration of beer, have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants, something the Germans singularly failed to do.
You been listening to Al Murray? He was talking about that very thing the other day.
Lols I thought it sounded familiar. To be honest I’m getting all my news about this invasion from 1941…
have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants,
My old neighbour Steve who died at the end of 2019 was a Royal Marine Commando in Normandy. His only complaint was having to take a shit in hedges. As a sniper he was right on the front line and they'd been watching a chateau for a while to be sure the Germans had left. He'd made it clear to his comrades he was going to be first in just so he could sit on a toilet. The only problem he recounted was that when he got in it looked like half the German army had used it before him.
They elite forces like the paratroopers, but their job is actually to subdue the civilians of the areas they invade.
Not really. The Russians have plenty of internal security forces for that who are trained and equipped for the job.
Problem for the elite forces is the plan failed.
I think the idea was they would grab the strategic airfields to stop them being destroyed. Then a mix of the tank columns getting to them quickly and air reinforcements would let them hold it.
Problem was the tanks didnt get in and their air transports would be target practice since they dont have air supremacy and, even if they did, with all the weapons being sent to them the Ukranians arent short on stingers and the equivalents.
It was reported they lost several plane loads of paratroopers when they were shot down.
Without those reinforcements they were doomed.
I hadn’t considered that Putin talking up a “purge” could be as much about finding others to blame and punish for military/strategic performance as it is about signalling that civil dissent will be crushed…
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504441427929047041?s=21
Staggering but somewhat predictable.
I don't see a way out of this for putin. Hopefully he'll get taken down from the inside.
But for those who worry about prodding the bear.. You think Biden will sit by forever? He may be a 'dem' but he's still a true blue American who won't be seen to back down either.
I think that's why the Americans have been relatively tentative so far...
Putin must be aware of the path he's taking all this on.. It's fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can't be as stupid as he seems, can he?
It’s a bit like Trump. People who never lose as people don’t say no to them, feel the normal rules cease to apply.
You been listening to Al Murray?
He has a WW2 podcast doesn't he? Not for a while (got a bit same-y) but he loves his Normandy, so I'm not surprised. It's pretty well known after all.
It’s a bit like Trump. People who never lose as people don’t say no to them, feel the normal rules cease to apply.
...and of course Zelenskyy is actually one of the people who did say 'no' to Trump with negative consequences for military etc aid:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal
which shows he's good at saying no to these twits, but makes me worry even more about the next US election.
It’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?
He hasn't lead a normal life for a very long time, his view is distorted by being surrounded by sycophants and yes men (whether those are true believers or just hustling for personnel gain). I am not sure anyone is in a position to challenge him at all, never mind dethrone him. And as bleak as the current situation is in Ukraine I suspect the long game is worse for Russia as his cronies need to explain the failures, everyone could be in the crosshairs. There will be a ratcheting up of purges and secret police state activity, neighbours spying on neighbours out of fear and to survive. It is going to be ****ing horrible.
This is an interesting read on strategy, especially on how to end the war.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putins-folly-a-case-study-of-an-inept-strategist/
It’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?
I think he is.
