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...and in other news
From odds checker:
Who's Favourite to win the Gorton & Denton by-election?
In the betting, the Green Party are 4/9 favourites with BetVictor, implying around a 69% chance of victory.
In the last seven days Green party have received 43% of total bets to win.
Reform UK are 18/5 with AKBets (approximately a 22% implied probability), a price that suggests bookmakers believe a breakthrough is possible if Labour and the Greens split the left-of-centre vote.
They have taken 36% of total bets in the last seven days.
Meanwhile, Labour Party sit at 17/2 (around 10%), a remarkable drift for a party that won comfortably here just 18 months ago, underlining how dramatically the political mood – and market expectations – have shifted in a short space of time.
They have recieved 15% of total bets.
I think youll find none of the parties have covered themselves in glory with their campaign literature https://bsky.app/profile/liburghal.bsky.social/post/3mfqrlurrcs23
This guy is doing the lords work rating all the (dis)honest political leafleting hes had through the door
https://bsky.app/profile/cjterry.bsky.social/post/3mfprdcbb6k2g
Polanski makes my skin crawl.
I get Farage and a boat-load of Reformers/Tories but skin crawl - Polanski ... ?
Seems a straightfoward decent person that can articulate a strong point of view for the many that are suffering - in a radical smart modern language.
He couldn't be more different to a greasy, creepy elitist.
He just seems creepy to me. I don't trust him. something off about him. Its a very superficial impression for sure
Its a very superficial impression for sure
is it the boob whispering?
tbh all politicians give me the ick to varying degrees, maybe its something about the synthetic nature of it all- its a game we know theyre playing, they know we know and they just carry on, liekwise we get upset if they dont play the game!
I do like authenticity in my politicians but its a rare quality
...and in other news
I suppose it's quite appropriate that this post has split from the official Your! Party! thread...
Greens odds shortened earlier.
Labour I've seen at 5:1
Going to be a very interesting day tomorrow.
Could be the springboard for lots of changes.
I will be surprised if Labour get this one based on the stuff I've seen.
But we don't know a thing...
The big worry is that Green plus Labour will be over 50% but Reform will get in with something like 30%
election monitors have said this is the highest level of family voting - ilegal practice where family members direct who to vote for, thats ever been observed in UK
Reform are already leaping on this- Goodwin & Zahawi- which is quite worrying because they will weaponise this in the way trump did with his conspiracies
https://bsky.app/profile/ottoenglish.bsky.social/post/3mfsbfpyabc2q
yep Farage is on it now
https://bsky.app/profile/ottoenglish.bsky.social/post/3mfscctmzzs2q
Goodwin would i think happily lose if he got to blame it on muslims/ greens/ woke
I seriously would not underestimate the mileage they ill make from this and how they'll use it to rile up hatred and division
How is he wrong? It is concerning and does raise questions.
Why is it concerning and why does it raise questions? Unless two people are in the booth its a non issue.
of course its wrong, but obviously Farage & co will use it to stir up more racism, hatred and division
they copy Trumps playbook almost exactly and he spun his election loss into a riot that stormed the capitol, and he illegally tried to find more votes
that is far more concerning
If there are two in the booth then the officials should have invalidated the votes
You can see the clear racism in the way Farage makes his complaint
Council hits back at 'family voting' claimpublished at 23:23
We've just reported on concerns from election monitoring group Democracy Volunteers about "concerningly high levels" of family voting in the by-election.
Manchester City Council, whose returning officer oversees the election, has now responded, saying polling station staff are trained to look out for any evidence of undue influence on voters.
"No such issues have been reported today," a spokesperson for the acting returning officer says.
"If Democracy Volunteers were so concerned about alleged issues they could and should have raised them with us during polling hours so that immediate action could be taken.
"We have operated a central by-election hub which has been rapidly responding to reported issues during the day, in liaison with the police - who had a presence at every polling station - where necessary.
"It is extremely disappointing that Democracy Volunteers have waited until after polls have closed to make such claims."
How is he wrong? It is concerning and does raise questions.
Isnt this what reform are arguing for with their wittering about "Christian heritage" where the man of the house told everyone else what to do? Why should we restrict it to the traditional Christian heritage vs their fellow bigots in the Islamic faith?
right I'm off too bed, i can only hope that Goodwin doesn't win, ideally thrashed into 3rd also Tories losing their deposit would be funny
i still think reform have a decent chance, though farages sour grapes make me think they're worried
for me the best outcome would be green win, because labour might finally realise chasing reform voters is never going to work for them....
Very concerning. A real shame these concerns weren't raised with the staff and / or police on duty at the polling stations, so any problems would have been fixed and the result left in no doubt, rather than now having people claiming things weren't done properly.
No-one would want that, with the risk of stirring up any sort of trouble would they billabong?
You seem to be insinuating that I’d be in favour of trouble being stirred up, whatever that might mean.
something fishy about these reports
it does seem odd that they didn't raise any issues at the time as they were witnessing an apparent crime
You seem to be insinuating that I’d be in favour of trouble being stirred up, whatever that might mean.
You said it so I am sure you should know what it means.
An obvious starter for ten is anyone hanging around inside a polling station needs official permission. So can we see why these "Democracy Volunteers" are?
I mean it might just be me but if I was an officially accredited observer the first moment I saw dodgy practice I would be shouting at the polling staff "oi". I assume then it might get a bit shouty and maybe the cops would be called but definitely someone (especially in this byelection where I suspect its even odds on the number of press vs voters) would start reporting "although not allowed in there is disruption in the station".
Its the standard hard right hatred of the west and democracy. Cast doubt on the polling system unless its 100% in their favour.
I'm up early to watch this one live.
Interesting that Labour are conceding defeat already. If that's the case their campaign of 'Reform or Labour' is going to look totally blinkered.
Results now...
Green 14980
Labour 9364
Reform 10578
Yes!
That's fantastic!
47.62% turnout
https://twitter.com/i/status/2027240351434428779
A good honest candidate with a strong message of hope beats all this current vile shit any day of the week (for me at least.)
To Starmer: you should have implemented your message of change and your pledges.
That is good news... Looks like reform didn't do quite as well as was feared either.. I though the result would be closer.
That is good news... Looks like reform didn't do quite as well as was feared either.. I though the result would be closer.
Yes I think that was the consensus.
Vote Green, get Reform. Aye right.
First bit of hope I’ve felt in politics for a long time.
Wow that's a relief. I know you shouldn't read to much into a by election but it's nice to know that reform aren't going to just stroll into power. I might be optimistic but I think there are more people that don't like reform than those who do . Tactical voting is going to be a big thing at the next election.
It will be interesting how the right wing press start treating the greens . Lots of Greens to give away our nuclear weapons style headlines.
So can we see why these "Democracy Volunteers" are?
I could find out very little about them. Led by an ex lib dem candidate I think but apart from that very little
I might be optimistic but I think there are more people that don't like reform than those who do . Tactical voting is going to be a big thing at the next election.
I think this is the main take on last night. The press, who are mainly right-leaning, have been relentlessly bigging up Reform, while also deliberately failing to acknowledge the majority of people who absolutely despise them and everything they represent.
This result shows that there's going to be a massive 'Anyone But Reform' vote at all subsequent elections until Nige gets bored with it all and saunters off to his next grift. In the meantime I see they're up to their usual stunts ... blaming everyone else, stoking grievances and fueling division, taking a leaf out of the Trump-esque, tinfoil-helmeted playbook.
It's nice to see that mindset being comprehensively rejected at the ballot box.
morning!
Labour coming third in what was one of their safest seats is great.
morning
Ha ha. Like a demented clock-work Alan Partridge pose!
i see he has conceded with all the grace of an infantile racist sore loser
Maybe it's not so much tactical voting.
It's more likely people voting for what they want.
There's clearly enough people to desert both Labour and Reform who want a better progressive government.
Reform are potentially exhausted in their arguments. For the time-being.
Over to you Starmer you came third - what are you going to do about it?
Labour coming third in what was one of their safest seats is great.
agreed , labour will be forced to move to the left now, McSweeneyism is dead!
Maybe it's not so much tactical voting.
It's more likely people voting for what they want.
There's clearly enough people to desert both Labour and Reform who want a better progressive government.
Reform are potentially exhausted in their arguments. For the time-being.
Over to you Starmer you came third - what are you going to do about it?
(In fact no thanks to Labour and all to Green that Reform didn't make it )
Phew. That is a relief, not least because Green, plus Lab was 67% of the vote - so the anti-reform vote held up.
The other advantage is that it makes Labour worry about a real challenge from the left and possibly drag them in that direction in terms of policy
I think Reform's arguments are likely to date badly from hereonin.
Not saying they've haven't got purchase but there will be a tipping-point as people look at the state of their own lives versus the faux arguments of Farage and co.
Starmer would be delusional to not try and occupy some of the progressive ground now. But then again.
Let's not pretend we didn't get here without the Green's shift in attitude and relentless campaigning on things that matter.
Feel some hope at last. Suspect there was a lot of tactical voting to bloody Reforms nose, that may not be so easy to drum up in a general election. Though the racist and apparently false claims of voter fraud continues to undermine them.
While this might make the Labour party move left as they realise there are more votes there than from Reform, would that then split the vote again?
Labour coming third in what was one of their safest seats is great.
The Tory party getting under 2% of the vote is pretty good. So much for Kemi and her Tory renaissance. It was looking like she'd actually started to believe her own hype
I wonder how many Tory MP's are now about to defect to Reform before Nige's deadline of before the May local elections?
I'm sure Kier will see last night's result and draw the conclusion that they need to move to Reform's vote rather than people want progressive politics.
I wonder how many Tory MP's are now about to defect to Reform before Nige's deadline of before the May local elections?
quite a few I expect
T^o me this is a classic bye election punishment vote / tactical vote and not that significant. See the number of lib dem bye election wins over the years that mostly revert back at the next GE. Now its the greens that get the benefit rather than lib dems.
Yep, ****ing great news. I am hopeful that although the general polling is strong for Reform when it comes to elections and how seats work it will not manifest. Going from having a handful of MPS to having 300 always seems hard to believe given the way the system works. Unfortunately that is the same for Green as Reform.
Just listened to an interview with Heidi Alexander on R4. They’re gonna need a new word for “tetchy” - she used up the old one.
I think this is a fairly big blow to Reform. They're trying to play it down but they put up one of their bigger names and they've failed.
I am hopeful that although the general polling is strong for Reform when it comes to elections and how seats work it will not manifest.
My money is still on Reform having the most votes but not the most seats come a general election. Followed by years of “stolen election” nonsense like Trump, possibly followed by majority win in the election after next. Hopefully not. Does need Labour and LibDems to get their shit together though. Relying on the Greens to swoop in across the whole country after this win isn’t wise (although having far more Green MPs is something I’d welcome).
47.5% turnout. I know that turnout for by-elections is almost always poor but turnout for the 2024 general election dipped below 60% too. A Danish friend was talking about their forthcoming general election being announced yesterday and mentioned that the turnout there is something like 84%.
T^o me this is a classic bye election punishment vote / tactical vote and not that significant. See the number of lib dem bye election wins over the years that mostly revert back at the next GE. Now its the greens that get the benefit rather than lib dems.
I'd like to believe this but all the same, a 25% drop in vote share is a huge loss for Labour. But maybe that's how politics is now - it's not up or down 5-10%, it's massive swings all over the place. I don't know.
It's also a pretty dismal outcome for the Tories. The only person underperforming Starmer is Bādenoch. If you can't make gains on Labour now, when can you?
Basically the two main parties got their lunches eaten by new arrivals from the extremes.
T^o me this is a classic bye election punishment vote / tactical vote and not that significant. See the number of lib dem bye election wins over the years that mostly revert back at the next GE. Now its the greens that get the benefit rather than lib dems
I don't think so.
It's solid messaging for what people want.
Remember how Starmer campaigned in 24? Moving to Green is not the same as moving to the Lib dems. That's gone.
It's a different era that the Centrist vote is a safe bet decade. We're past all that now.
That's what Labour haven't got their head around.
Don't expect Greens to replicate this everywhere but this seat was nowhere near one of their target seats I don't believe.
I'm sure Kier will see last night's result and draw the conclusion that they need to move to Reform's vote rather than people want progressive politics.
Depressingly, I think you're spot on.
I'm sure Kier will see last night's result and draw the conclusion that they need to move to Reform's vote rather than people want progressive politics.
Depressingly, I think you're spot on.
Even though he's theoretically losing 1 in 4 to Green?
But yeah he will in classic Starmer fashion do loads of stupid things.
I wouldn't read too much into this for Badenoch (or Davey as it happens) on the national level. If you were a Tory or Libdem supporter, you're very likely to have thrown your vote behind one of the other three parties if you voted. It's very bad for Starmer though.
What I am finding interesting here is the gap between the polls and the result. Polling models either over-estimated Reform or under-estimated Green. If they then adjust their models it could change the landscape especially in the run up to the Senedd elections in May.
47.5% turnout is such a low mandate. Has to be amongst some of the lowest in liberal democracies.
It's clear to me that Parliament needs somebody like Hannah Spencer. The place is crumbling so her plumbing and plastering skills will make a big difference.
The amount of people that didn't vote for the scum is heartening.
Still... surprised that half of voters were happy to sit back and let others choose.
47.5% turnout is such a low mandate. Has to be amongst some of the lowest in liberal democracies.
Unfortunately, it's a reflection of the enthusiasm (or not) for what's on offer
Remember those now halcyon days when we didn't think it could possibly get any worse than the choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson?
Starmer's got to go now surely. It was his decision to block Burnham, it was his decision to move the party right and ostracise and force out left wingers from his party, it was his decision to rip up the 10 pledges which won him the leadership, and all the decisions which went back on their manifesto promises were his too. It proves the point that just like when Corbyn was leader, the rightwing of the labour party will put factional interests and the interests of billionaire donors and supporters before that of the party, their supporters and voters and the country. They'd rather see a reform govt than a Labour govt led by Burnham or someone else from the soft-left.
Come on Angela, get on with it!
Starmer's got to go now surely.
Not until he takes the hit for the electoral armageddon that awaits in May
Then he's toast
What I am finding interesting here is the gap between the polls and the result. Polling models either over-estimated Reform or under-estimated Green
I looked at a couple of bookies and they both had Greens as strong favourites.
Not until he takes the hit for the electoral armageddon that awaits in May
Yeah not much point Rayner moving until then. He should be doing the right thing and stepping down though instead of clinging on. Instead though we know what the cynical narrative will be from the bunker. It won't be that working class people used their voices to signal to the billionaire elite that they're sick of being bled dry while they get ever richer. No it'll be that a bunch of islamic extremists voted against labour because of Gaza.
And on the Greens, how refreshing is it having a party which is comfortable speaking the truth about politics, economics and culture war issues? For so long politicians and commentators in the media have treated politics like a game which has rules and guard rails about what you're allowed to do or say. Now we have a party who are willing to call out the problems and speak the plain truth about how our society works and how we can do things differently.
Starmer's got to go now surely.
Not until he takes the hit for the electoral armageddon that awaits in May
Then he's toast
Not at all. there is precisely zero need for him to go and it will be very difficult to force him out.
I note our resident 'if you vote green you'll be handing the country to Farage' types are quiet this morning. Turns out voting green is the way to stop him. 😀
It will be interesting how the right wing press start treating the greens .
They are already launching the offensive - there is a hilarious rant by Daniel Hannan in the Mail (I like to keep up with the enemy mindset) that pulls no punches. What is so ironic is you could literally substitute the words Reform for Green, closing borders for opening them and Palestine for Israel and the article would be spot on. Coming from the architect of Brexit however its beyond parody.....
Duplipost.
Since I have a second post to fill - how dubious does that Democracy Volunteers claim sound? Anyone ever heard of them before yesterday? I sure hope they'll be presenting their evidence to the police.
It will be interesting how the right wing press start treating the greens .
Apparently they want to install a drug dealer outside every school gate to sell all the kids crack cocaine. 🙄
In reality they're the first political party to advocate a sensible, real-world approach to drugs policy, as opposed to the hysterical 'war on drugs' nonsense that even the police keep pointing out has comprehensively failed.
The fact that the Labour Party decided to take the same line as the Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, GB News etc on this matter is just one more reason to completely despair at them and how they've now just completely lost their way.
Anyone ever heard of them before yesterday?
Yep, they're legit. I often see and speak with them at hustings events, elections and by-elections. Generally good people. I think they're partly funded by the Rowntree Trust. As the name suggests they're all just volunteers, I don't know what their instructions are regarding alerting returning officers or other officials if they see/hear anything, or whether they just observe.
I think this is a fairly big blow to Reform.
they were always going to struggle here. the constituency is weirdly schizophrenic, the folks that want to vote against them mostly live in the wards that vote for left wing parties and are motivated to come out. Even in Denton there was very little doorstep support for them. I think it's difficult for a party like reform to move [even socially-conservative] Labour voters .
T^o me this is a classic bye election punishment vote / tactical vote and not that significant.
Unsurprisingly I tend to agree, There was a huge amount of "I'm normally solid Labour, but they need a kick up the backside" and "If it was Burnham I'd vote for you" type comments The media are losing their minds (obviously) and I've seen some proper nonsense on SM. I wouldn't bet on the Greens retaining it.
Anyone ever heard of them before yesterday?
Yep, they're legit. I often see and speak with them at hustings events, elections and by-elections. Generally good people. I think they're partly funded by the Rowntree Trust. As the name suggests they're all just volunteers, I don't know what their instructions are regarding alerting returning officers or other officials if they see/hear anything, or whether they just observe.
Hmm. An observing body that doesn't intervene, raises grievances only after the polls have closed and seemingly doesn't gather evidence of wrongdoing seems.... A bit pointless? Certainly, Manchester council are just as independent and said no-one at any of the polling stations reported any issues. It just seems a bit suspicious, to me.
Instead though we know what the cynical narrative will be from the bunker. It won't be that working class people used their voices to signal to the billionaire elite that they're sick of being bled dry while they get ever richer. No it'll be that a bunch of islamic extremists voted against labour because of Gaza.
The approach taken by Heidi Alexander on Today this morning seemed to be to paint Reform as dangerous and the Greens as deluded ideallists, with Labour being the only sensible people willing to make the hard decisions. Lots of emphasis on things like the Greens wanting to leave NATO and stuff like that.
It just seems a bit suspicious, to me.
Like I said, I don't know what their instructions are, I have seen them speak with officials before, but only to ask about how many voters have been refused and stuff like that, and they're not always at every polling station. Mostly you can see them recording speeches and questions at Hustings events. They're often students.
Lots of emphasis on things like the Greens wanting to leave NATO and stuff like that.
The policy area on their website says obviously oblique things like "We will work with NATO" and their leader has said he wants to leave; should they not be questioned like any other party?
Hmm. An observing body that doesn't intervene, raises grievances only after the polls have closed and seemingly doesn't gather evidence of wrongdoing seems.... A bit pointless?
I can see why that way of working might be important in certain countries/regimes but then why are they even allowed in polling stations if they're not casting their own votes? I assume that they had to get permission to be allowed in as observers, but I'd have thought that might require legislation. What's to stop anyone else setting up another, similar, group?