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Labour is dividing the left vote in three
Expect lots of shouting from the true believers coming up to the GE about if you dont vote for Starmers rightwingers then you are voting for the tory rightwingers instead.
The article talks of a "coalition" but fact is a three-party left will lose an election against Reform in a first past the post system. Labour is dividing the left vote in three with its
This is a good point. Under PR you can appeal to people slightly to one side or other knowing the people you lose will vote for likely coalition partners (who will then drag the government back towards its core position)
Under FPTP this doesn’t work and you can’t rely on people to tactically vote for you if they’re appalled by everything you do, even if some will hold their nose and do it anyway for fear of something worse.
I just have a basic observation that they all think it's easier to chase elections by appealing to the lowest common denominator rather than being bothered to put the effort in and sort stuff out.
I mean which party is genuinely up for reframing the entire system? It would take guts, plans and new economic narratives.
Easier just to chase the nasty vote.
"Try getting an EHCP, it's already extremely difficult, without it you don't have special needs." Before the second comma, spot on, after it, not true. Not all needs warrant or are suitable for an EHCP. Speaking from experience with 50% SEND in my class and two more working towards it. Two EHCP yet the kid who really needs it doesn't get one.
Interesting note I found just now and this is really paraphrased but basically it was pointed out that the biggest Reform votes or swings were in wards with the highest numbers of "working" class rather than shall we say "professional". Sort of supports my point that the "working class" in my experience are the most "racist" or self interested in their comments etc.
I note that people here still are unable to differentiate between racism and a desire to stop immigration. I am damn sure I am not the former but I am damn well the second. Why? We have too many people. I don't care where people come from as long as the overall number is negative and those coming in have a good positive, economic benefit to the country. Pack the pensioners off the Benidorm. 😀 Bye Mum. I won't be far behind you.
I just have a basic observation that they all think it's easier to chase elections by appealing to the lowest common denominator rather than being bothered to put the effort in and sort stuff out.
Especially if they are comfortable with a certain level of bigotry themselves.
There is an assumption that Labour are embracing Farage style racist dog-whistling because they have been forced to do so by a racist electorate.
It ignores deeply embedded racism within the Labour Party which has nothing whatsoever to do with Nigel Farage or Red Wall voters.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/forde-report-labour-party-racism-b2126627.html
Labour Party is an “unwelcoming place for people of colour”, the Forde report concluded
Why would a political party which is unwelcoming to people of colour be expected to be welcoming to asylum seekers and migrants when in government?
It's like Labour have been given a free pass all of sudden.
https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Hinder/status/1918958549423550848?t=VWDSOxhS-CtSKZAQ6PpfCg&s=19
How about you lot go out there and give the working class a reason to want to vote Labour?
Two EHCP yet the kid who really needs it doesn't get one.
That was the point I was making, without the ECHP you don't get the help, as far as the system is concerned you don't have special needs. Throttle back the assessments to artificially reduce demand.
It's like Labour have been given a free pass all of sudden.
https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Hinder/status/1918958549423550848?t=VWDSOxhS-CtSKZAQ6PpfCg&s=19
How about you lot go out there and give the working class a reason to want to vote Labour?
Exactly this. They just don't seem to want to do it. FPTP means there that a divided left/centre left will let Reform in as others have said. I'm not seeing any sign that Labour are grasping this concept.
Louise Haigh - excellent in her all too brief stint as Transport Sec - is pretty blunt in her assessment of it all here.
Perhaps these politicians would be willing to add their party to their name. You used to be able to tell them apart by what they said. That seems to be getting harder and harder every day.
Louise Haigh - excellent in her all too brief stint as Transport Sec - is pretty blunt in her assessment of it all here.
It's so painfully logical isn't it?
Louise Haigh - excellent in her all too brief stint as Transport Sec - is pretty blunt in her assessment of it all here.
It's so painfully logical isn't it?
This is what happens when the media gets to determine who is fit for office by dredging up past misdemeanours.
If she, and voices like hers, aren't brought back into cabinet, Labour are doomed.
From Rone's link
A new poll for the public affairs firm Apella Advisors, conducted by Find Out Now, found last week that the threat of drifting progressive voters was significant. Among Labour 2024 voters, 43% said they would be likely to consider voting Green and 40% Lib Dems. Just 9% said they could consider voting Reform.
Obviously 43% of Labour 2024 won't be voting Green at the next general election but the fact they are prepared to consider it whilst only 9% are prepared to consider voting Reform, tells you everything you need to know about why Labour voters feel let down by Starmer.
Apparently the most common accusation on the doorstep is "betrayal".
Personally I don't think that after this post-Corbyn era of expulsions, selection process manipulation, and the mass departure of activists from the Labour Party, in which Starmer proudly boasts that he has changed the "DNA" of the party, the situation is recoverable.
I don't think there is any realistic possibility of returning to factory settings and undoing the huge structural damage caused by Starmer and McSweeney. I believe Starmer is absolutely right when he says that he has changed the DNA of the Labour and if you accept that then you accept that the problem is insurmountable.
The history of Labour governments is the history of reforms which have changed the lives of ordinary working people, the NHS, equal pay, race discrimination act, decriminalisation of homosexuality, health and safety at work act, devolution, etc, etc,
Every single Labour government, including ones with tiny majorities, have been responsible for reforms which have been hugely beneficial to ordinary working people. Starmer's government looks set to be the first Labour government in history not to be responsible for any great reform. It looks set to be the first Labour government in history to actually increase poverty.
It really isn't a Labour government in anything other than name. And it's time for a new grassroots party to represent ordinary working people in parliament.
Turns out that Reform won the Kent County Council with a lot of promises in the election leaflets about stopping the boats.
They've been in place less than a weekend and already rowed back (sorry...) on that promise because they're "only" the County...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9ekx3mz4yo
https://observer.co.uk/news/columnists/article/note-to-party-leaders-let-farage-get-in-your-heads-and-you-are-doomed
TL;DR ape reform and you're screwed.
Despite getting out of the blocks with a good first few weeks, IMO, they've managed to make a right hash of the last 6 months. They need to get their shit together and fast. Yours, former Starmer optimist.
TL;DR ape reform and you're screwed.
And if Starmer/McSweeney can't think of their own shit and they need to ape anyone perhaps it's the Greens, if this is true :
Among Labour 2024 voters, 43% said they would be likely to consider voting Green and 40% Lib Dems. Just 9% said they could consider voting Reform.
If people don't vote Green it won't be because of their policies but because voters recognise that unlike Reform the Greens stand no chance of forming a government.
However a Labour Party adopting the sort of policies argued by the Greens sounds like something of a vote winner to me, certainly more so than a Labour Party adopting Nigel Farage's bigoted rhetoric
However a Labour Party adopting the sort of policies argued by the Greens sounds like something of a vote winner to me,
This should have been obvious from the moment that Cameron said about binning off "all the green crap". Labour could have absolutely rinsed the Tories with that one when the chickens came home to roost with Ukraine, the corresponding spike in energy prices, our over-reliance on imported gas...
While "net-zero" has been hijacked and misrepresented, selling it as "look, if we put solar panels here, you get cheaper electricity" is pretty straightforward. As already noted, most people don't care about stuff that doesn't directly affect them, certainly not the less tangible stuff like carbon savings but if you point out that wind and solar is way cheaper and quicker to build than nuclear and installing a heat pump results in cheaper bills all round, that's an easy win. The fact it's a "green" policy shouldn't really change much.
Also, I note Reform are dead against such things which probably means they're good. Like using the Daily Mail as a barometer. Whatever they hate is probably a good thing in reality.
Turns out that Reform won the Kent County Council with a lot of promises in the election leaflets about stopping the boats.
They've been in place less than a weekend and already rowed back (sorry...) on that promise because they're "only" the County...
The Greater Lincolnshire mayor made similar promises. The danger is they can point at central government about the boats and the lack of local government funding.
If people don't vote Green it won't be because of their policies but because voters recognise that unlike Reform the Greens stand no chance of forming a government.
They won't be forming their own government but a reasonable swing towards Green from Labour plus losing a fair few seats to reform means they might be in a coalition with a few cabinet roles. Not as good as having a proper left wing party in charge but a centrist Labour with some lefty Greens that they need to keep happy sounds like a compromise I can live with.
but a centrist Labour
Lets not pretend that this labour government is centrist in anything other than "centrism" being a rebranding of right wing politics.
Not as good as having a proper left wing party in charge but a centrist Labour with some lefty Greens that they need to keep happy sounds like a compromise I can live with.
Or we could end up with what happened when it was a Tory / LD coalition - to be fair to the LD they did manage to keep some of the Tories more objectionable policies at bay for a bit and the tax-free allowance raise was one of the main promises but in other respects they abandoned some of them as soon as they got a sniff of power - notably tutition fees and the VAT rise.
Or we could end up with what happened when it was a Tory / LD coalition
The problem there was the LibDems leadership was controlled by the orange book group. Notably with Paul Marshall as a significant donor and the co-editor of the book. If you are not aware of who he is after destroying the libdems he subsequently moved onto fund the tories and own/fund unherd and most recently GBeebies.
Tuition fees is the classic example. Clegg and co wanted to bin off that promise ahead of the election but were defeated in an internal policy making committee. Needless to say it therefore wasnt a subject they were overly dedicated to fighting the tories about.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c230je4dmklo.amp
I'm waiting to see just how quickly this all falls apart into internal squabbles and embarrassment based actually having to do some work, be accountable for it and not just post snide comments on social media...
some of the Tories more objectionable policies at bay for a bit
I would strongly disagree with this. All they did was allow the tories to continue to govern. They could have forced another election and stopped all the tories austerity
Okay.
So you do have a bottom line rather than a moral compass but fine.
Let's see shall we how this pans out?
So you do have a bottom line rather than a moral compass but fine.
This from the Financial Times - basically the Government is trying to save money anywhere it can (including by freezing a few old folk to death) so they can push this nonsense forward.
It's just another fixation on doing the wrong thing. Much like how electric cars exist to save the car industry rather than the environment, hydrogen and carbon capture exist to save the fossil fuel industry.
https://bsky.app/profile/sioldridge.bsky.social/post/3ldggzdav5k2t
They could have forced another election and stopped all the tories austerity
Or they could have forced another election and the Conservatives could have ended up with a majority without any restraint and compromise caused by the coalition.
We honestly don't know where that Sliding Doors moment would have led and emboldened by a swing to the right (or left) we might have seen more extreme versions of policy than we got.
his from the Financial Times - basically the Government is trying to save money anywhere it can (including by freezing a few old folk to death) so they can push this nonsense forward.
These people are total idiots - screaming about such things when avoiding doorstep reality.
It's a simple fact that the central government financial system has no mechanism for saving. The accounts in the BoE are swept to zero every single day. Labour are dining out on the fact that most of the public think there's a pot of money building up (or dwindling away) for them to spend. As most people on here are fond of saying - simple solutions to complex problems. Labour are as guilty of this as Reform.
What we have is spread-sheet brain or Treasury brain as its referred to more correctly. Public outcomes don't matter but keeping a spreadsheet in check suits the Technocrats. Despite the finances being nothing like a household. Labour are selling the myth that at some point they will have control of the finances and growth will appear and then they will do all these wonderful things.
It's painfully stupid and the opposite to what will work.
Got to say Zack Polanski is doing a great job (in his leadership bid) - simply and clearly articulating basic needs with a plan; left push-back and where we are the challenge of the right. Listening to him talk makes Starmer look like an right-baiting empty-headed visionless drone.
Novara
Politics Joe
Pretty much nails the state of play within 4 minutes.
"Nigel Farage is a millionaire that pretends to speak up for working class populations." He then explains why the Greens have been poor at this.
some of the Tories more objectionable policies at bay for a bit
I would strongly disagree with this. All they did was allow the tories to continue to govern. They could have forced another election and stopped all the tories austerity
In the case of austerity the LibDems didn't simply tolerated it they were strong advocates of it. Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, and Danny Alexander, all strongly argued in favour of austerity.
There is a reason why 15 years on support for the LibDems is still not much more than half of what it had been under Charles Kennedy's leadership.
Nick Clegg proved to the electorate that the LibDems had nothing much different to the Tories to offer them. Now it's Sir Keir Starmer's turn to do the same thing. Anf after the next general election it will be Nigel Farage's turn.
Turns out that Reform won the Kent County Council with a lot of promises in the election leaflets about stopping the boats.
They've been in place less than a weekend and already rowed back (sorry...) on that promise because they're "only" the County
Yes, but who/what are they blaming?
Not being able to deliver on a local level may not be the problem it seems if Reform can spin the narrative that all the resource and money is bring wasted on DEI/woke/etc things. Given that Reform are a parry that relies on grievances (real or imaginary) amongst the electorate, the notion of trying to govern with one hand supposedly ties behind their back is a strong one at a general election.
but a centrist Labour with some lefty Greens that they need to keep happy sounds like a compromise I can live with.
You're in a minority then. The electoral battleground for the next few years are the voters in the midlands and former manufacturing towns, and those voters have consistently rejected left wing and green policies* when given the choice, and have voted socially conservative and largely for centre right, or far right candidates. The natural voice of these communities that used to have national representation (Scargill, Kinnock, Hattersley) who were conscious of Labours socialist roots, these communities are largely rejecting that old message in the face a changing world. These folks are listening to reductionist politicians who tell them that all their problems are down to immigration, and they believe it, and want "something done" about it, and have not voted for any party that doesn't tell them that they will.
* If you've got two mins you could no worse than read the Blair institute report about why these voters are sceptical reject policies like "net zero".
his from the Financial Times - basically the Government is trying to save money anywhere it can (including by freezing a few old folk to death) so they can push this nonsense forward.
These people are total idiots - screaming about such things when avoiding doorstep reality.
It's a simple fact that the central government financial system has no mechanism for saving. The accounts in the BoE are swept to zero every single day. Labour are dining out on the fact that most of the public think there's a pot of money building up (or dwindling away) for them to spend. As most people on here are fond of saying - simple solutions to complex problems. Labour are as guilty of this as Reform.
What we have is spread-sheet brain or Treasury brain as its referred to more correctly. Public outcomes don't matter but keeping a spreadsheet in check suits the Technocrats. Despite the finances being nothing like a household. Labour are selling the myth that at some point they will have control of the finances and growth will appear and then they will do all these wonderful things.
It's painfully stupid and the opposite to what will work.
Got to say Zack Polanski is doing a great job (in his leadership bid) - simply and clearly articulating basic needs with a plan; left push-back and where we are the challenge of the right. Listening to him talk makes Starmer look like an right-baiting empty-headed visionless drone.
Novara
Politics Joe
Pretty much nails the state of play within 4 minutes.
"Nigel Farage is a millionaire that pretends to speak up for working class populations." He then explains why the Greens have been poor at this.
I'm sold - where do I sign up?
Well you can vote for Zack by joining sharpish!
voters in the midlands and former manufacturing towns, and those voters have consistently rejected left wing and green policies*
For start they've been barely offered left-wing policies, mostly. They've been rammed with failed right-wing policies.
What has been rejected is the convincing narrative about the left from the centre + right.
Left wing policies are popular - it's the narrative that controls sway.
It's quite funny that Reform are clearly targeting certain understandings of left-wing economics because they know they're popular in these areas.
Labour's wholesale rejection currently is based on shockingly bad adoption of right-wing policies.
In a nutshell people thought they were going to get change.
The more we head into the downward trajectory of Neolibralism not delivering for people's lives - the more we need progressive policies. And the more the electorate will demand it.
(Migration, sure - it's a difficult issue. But if you tackle the big economic problems in society - migration will become less of an issue for voters.)
(Migration, sure - it's a difficult issue. But if you tackle the big economic problems in society - migration will become less of an issue for voters.)
It's become a media-led bogeyman.
The same happened with the EU. Mostly, very few people knew much about it, very little of the good stuff (like visa-free travel around Europe) was really trumpeted and it was therefore very easy to create a narrative around the EU as being out-of-touch Brussels bureaucrats telling us plucky Brits what to do and dreaming up nonsense rules about how bendy a banana should be.
Migration is the same - in fact I'd guess that for most people in day-to-day life it's a net positive like having a Sudanese doctor or a Spanish barista or an Indian bus driver. It just happens and no-one notices. But then you can push the narrative that they're all illegal, they're all scroungers and suddenly it becomes a (made-up) issue for voters to distract from the real issues.
For start they've been barely offered left-wing policies, mostly.
Without wishing to open the whole can of worms, they clearly were in 2017 and 2019, and the electorate specifically in those areas rejected them, emphatically in 2019.
Left wing policies are popular -
Some are, some aren't and depends on who you ask...nationalised broadband (for instance) was seen as a bit of a joke, a waste of tax payer money, a bit North Korean, or just an unwanted handout [sample of my own experience canvassing], so I don't think sweeping statements like that are useful particularly
In a nutshell people thought they were going to get change.
Yes completely agree, that's why we got shot of the Tories, if you asked the folks what they change would look like you'd get a hundred thousand different answers, some of which would be the expectation of a more competent plan to remove immigrants
some of which would be the expectation of a more competent plan to remove immigrants
A more competent plan would include processing asylum claims more promptly rather than leaving people languishing in slightly grim taxpayer funded accommodation for months to years, with no recourse to earning money. But of course that would cost money and look humane so it's off the table.
suddenly it becomes a (made-up) issue for voters to distract from the real issues.
And that's all it is, an easy scapegoat for all the other policy failings (by both flavours of government in the last 40 years), and an easy income stream for the Reform grifters.
And, to add, an easy scapegoat for wider societal failings - "our area has been a shithole since migrants moved here" is easier than "we've allowed our area to become a shithole"
Without wishing to open the whole can of worms, they clearly were in 2017 and 2019, and the electorate specifically in those areas rejected them, emphatically in 2019.
Not this electoral revisionism again. In 2017 Labour won it's highest vote share since 97 largely because people liked the policies even if they weren't that enthusiastic about Corbyn. In 2019 they suffered because Corbyn had been successfully branded as a racist anti-semite by people in his own party, and moreso because he caved in to Starmer and appeared to be attempting to nullify the brexit vote. Portraying those election losses as an 'emphatic' rejection of left wing policies is a gross misreading of history.
moreso because he caved in to Starmer and appeared to be attempting to nullify the brexit vote
Before Labour changed policy in '19 to one that might give voters a say on Brexit, they were hovering at about 24% in the polls. Much like they are now.
Without wishing to open the whole can of worms, they clearly were in 2017 and 2019, and the electorate specifically in those areas rejected them, emphatically in 2019.
But they did lose with more votes than Starmer won with - would've been interesting if the Corbyn Labour had been up against the same Tories that Starmer beat.
and moreso because he caved in to Starmer and appeared to be attempting to nullify the brexit vote.
Was he?!
Happy to be proven wrong but I remember Corbyn as almost demanding the Government trigger Article 50 immediately after the referendum. He came across just as pro-Brexit as any UKIP'er.
Of course that may be the press doing it's demonisation job and me mis-remembering.
Ultimately, Brexit is still hanging around like a bad-smelling elephant in the room and all the nonsense the current Government are putting out about "growth growth growth" could be helped by, if not rejoining (which I admit is unlikely in the next 10-15 years), then at least some renegotiation of terms, rejoining the Customs Union etc.
Was he?!
I don't think he personally was, but that's the way it was perceived by the electorate, and especially voters in the red wall who voted for brexit. That was why it was such huge strategic mistake. Voters concluded that he was trying to do something he didn't even believe in and that he was a weak leader as a result.
Anyway, back to the present day. It's interesting that the consensus on here and elsewhere now seems to be that Labour should be more left wing. I suppose it's a small relief that many are now coming to their senses after their unfounded confidence in Starmer and his spineless cabinet ministers, but I still don't hold much hope that Labour will change direction. Instead of a fundamental shift in strategy they'll throw a few scraps to get the media to change the narrative and then forge on regardless with their economic conservatism and technocratic inaction.
Maybe a reform govt is what we need to shock us out of our hubris?
"our area has been a shithole since migrants moved here" is easier than "we've allowed our area to become a shithole"
Or "our area has been a shithole for years ". Though that of course could be blamed on government policy, hence playing into Reform's hands.
Maybe a reform govt is what we need to shock us out of our hubris?
How many more huge rightwing victories and lurches to the right do we think it will be before the electorate thinks "no, we really need to give socialism a chance"?
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