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Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?
I have a member of my family, who I can't believe I'm related to, who is a true blue Tory, loved Boris and still thinks Brexit was a great idea. You may be shocked to hear he's also as thick as a boxing day turd
Look at the face of the guy behind Nige he knows this is campaign gold.
That guy lobbing stuff out the bin had a good aim under pressure. Also, as an aside "alleged incident" - FFS, there's a video of someone throwing things at Farage's head, there's nothing alleged about it.
Always liked Barnsley.
Poll tweak for the libs.
Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll
** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4
LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1800558618254942681?t=KPCb_TSskmWdrVU-2EGOqw&s=09
So the winner will be either Farage or Labour. I can see the possibility of Farage splitting the right-wing vote sufficiently down the middle to allow Labour to win.
All the polls I have seen for Clacton show (CON+REF)>LAB That means if you split the right wing vote down the middle one of those 2 cheeks of the same arse still beat LAB. I think it's either CON or REF.
South Dorset
I think I'll move down and hope Rosie gets in. At least they're not a single policy outfit, they seem to cover a lot of ground in their policies, mostly pretty socialist.
How ironic that voting Tory could end up being the tactical vote to keep Farage out!
Also a very compelling reason to nuke Clacton from orbit.
Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?
My OH.
I've no idea why, she spent last year on JSA taking a gap year and looking for work about as intensely as I look for the salad option on a pub menu, costs the NHS an absolute fortune and continuously complains about public services.
But despite working in HR she has very strong views on immigrants and TGBTQ+ issues, and thinks Boris needed more time to get the job done. Details of what the jobs he was doing are vague.
I'm related to people who still think Liz Truss was great and should have been given more time. Some of them are also ant-vax, obsessed with trans issues the woke and think Muslims are a threat to our way of life. Only consolation is that they will probably vote reform and help to split the Tory vote.
Perhaps though it is better to let him win a seat.
He already had a seat as an MEP. And he re-won it, then forced a referendum and got the result he wanted. He needs to be thoroughly beaten in the polls. And before anyone says anything about Nick Griffin fading away after being 'exposed' on Question Time, he faded away because his policies were adopted by mainstream political parties so he wasn't needed any more.
#PrayforTinas
All of my in-laws will vote Tory. I'll be polite and say that they have a limited interest in the nuances of current affairs. Voting Tory is just what you do for people like them. They're genuinely the nicest people you could meet too. I just avoid talking politics with them!
#PrayforTinas #PrayforTinas'sNewPatio 😉
A nice timely bit of good news today as another levelling up success is revealed
Why one of Britain’s wealthiest villages has netted a £300k taxpayer-funded levelling-up grant
The latest polling
https://Twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1800558618254942681?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
So has Sunak managed to launch his manifesto without any PR disasters today then?
Does announcing a promise on NI, which they promised on in 2019 but broke in 2020(?), and now announcing again in 2024 'because you can trust us?' count as a PR disaster?
He comes across as out of touch and financially isolated from reality
this is crying out for a “Common People” parody.
Mel Stride (yes, him again) is presently being absolutely dismantled on channel 4 news by Krishnan about all the Tory sums that don’t add up
He’s got the look of a man that knows he’s talking shit, I’d have respect for him if he just said “**** it” on camera and launched himself from the balcony, preferably to land on a gaggle of Tufton Street spads
Stride's super power is being able to talk the same old shite about lies over and over again without shame.
Think about a system and a set of circumstances that allows someone like that to attain high office.
Now think about the civil servants who have to deal with his ilk.
Now try not to be cynical.
Mel Stride flailing. No wonder no other minister is prepared to go on the record defending this bag of old bollocks…
https://Twitter.com/channel4news/status/1800543802039345564?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Also loving the fact that Sunak's tax giveaway isn't crashing the economy because the markets aren't reacting - they know none of it will happen.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The latest polling
Interesting to see LAB losing more than CON over the past week (though admittedly from a higher starting point) as LD and REF increase their share.
The bookies have got the Lib Dems to win more seats than the Tories now at 3/1. It was 4/1 a couple of days ago and 6/1 last week
That’ll have them twitching in the ‘Blue Wall’
Some of them are also ant-vax, obsessed with trans issues the woke and think Muslims are a threat to our way of life. Only consolation is that they will probably vote reform and help to split the Tory vote.
Yeah, my FIL is one.
"Basically, we live in a Muslim state"
"Climate change is bollocks"
"Immigrants get an iPhone, car and free house"
Mad thing is, Truss's little flutter nearly lost them their house sale. They had to move in with us for a few months...he still won't accept that the Tories are all total ****s because something something labour Corbyn 70's strikes something.
All the polls I have seen for Clacton show (CON+REF)>LAB That means if you split the right wing vote down the middle one of those 2 cheeks of the same arse still beat LAB. I think it’s either CON or REF.
Interesting, I can't find a recent opinion poll for Clacton, have you got a link? I am assuming a big swing to Labour which is in line with all the recent national opinion polls.
Obviously if the Tories are in the best position to defeat Farage then I wouldn't hesitate to vote Tory.
Interesting to see LAB losing more than CON over the past week
The YouGov poll out today has Labour falling 3 points but the sample is relatively very small - 1,611. The Redfield poll out yesterday however had Labour up 3 points and the sample was huge - 10,000
Personally I think the polls are somewhat confused at the moment. Some of them simply don't seem feasible - how realistic is it that the Tories will end up with less MPs than the LibDems?
In my dreams maybe but sadly extraordinarily unlikely in the real world.
Basically, we live in a Muslim state
I had the argument the other day. Only 6.5 % of the UK identify as Muslim. Tell him that and he’ll probably tell they are all in positions of power and rule over us Crusaders , you Sunak, Khan, Romesh Ranganathan.
Surely voting Tory is pointless if we live in a Muslim state.
"Yeah, my FIL is one.
“Basically, we live in a Muslim state”"
I feel like presents are a great opportunity to help friends and family learn about new things.
So for Christmas, you should buy him a flight to a Muslim state.
You could get him the return for his birthday.
From a statistically pure perspective - statistical validity is generally accepted when the sample size is 2,000 or more, subject to the sample selection complying with accepted selection criteria.
I'm not a statistician so will accept comment/correction from those better qualified than me/I.
Interesting, I can’t find a recent opinion poll for Clacton, have you got a link? I am assuming a big swing to Labour which is in line with all the recent national opinion polls.
Personally I think the polls are somewhat confused at the moment. Some of them simply don’t seem feasible – how realistic is it that the Tories will end up with less MPs than the LibDems?
Agreed. I can't see it happening but it would be nice.
Thanks slowoldman.
The FT has Reform UK on just 17.6% in Clacton, YouGov have them on 19.5%, and Calculus have them on 38.3%
That's quite a range!
It is. The Electoral Calculus one is quite an outlier! But I think quite a lot of the stuff I've seen on their site is at odds with the others, including the nationwide share and resulting seats.
I live in a little red blob in a sea of blue (cambs). Interestingly I've seen a lot of lib dem boards up in the surrounding villages alongside the labour ones. Also got some lib dem propaganda through attacking kier starmer, no significant mention of the tories. I've got a sinking feeling that the sane vote will be split and Tories will keep some seats around here. Spoke to our works landlord today, he's aghast at the prospect of labour putting inheritance tax on his 200 acres of prime arable...
Not sure if the stats on voting intentions are quite solid yet, and electoral calculus seems to be based on older data from what I can tell. FT seems a little more in touch. And Frank, you and your fellow canvassers doing a good job in Newark if FT is reliable.
The stopthetories and best for Britain still waiting for more data before they make a recommendation on tactical vote for seats like midsussex, but FT seems to show that LDs are the gtto option.
There are very few permutations of that FT calculator which don't return a Tory in my constituency 🙁
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salisbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
It was last Liberal 100 years ago. Obviously never been a Labour seat. LD candidate is a solid option having stood before and is a local councillor. Thinking I might vote for her and campaign for Reform?
Wow, just noticed that Farage stood her in 97!
All that matters is what we will know at breakfast time on 5th July.
You - and everyone you know - can and will make a difference if they...
- use their vote; this, to me is the single most important consideration; people worked long and hard to secure the universal franchise; do not denigrate them by not voting.
- use the vote to elect the MP and party most likely to deliver what you want
- it won't be a perfect outcome for anyone
- vote for change; vote for a better future for you and your family; that means...vote Labour.
^^Amen to all of that. 👍
Voting Tory is just what you do for people like them. They’re genuinely the nicest people you could meet too. I just avoid talking politics with them!
They seem like nice people because you avoid talking politics. Same at work where I am surrounded by tory voters but people don't really talk politics in the workplace.
However, whenever anything political does come up you realise they are not quite so nice in their attitudes towards less fortunate people than them and quickly go to the default position of them being in a better position because they tried harder with absolutely zero awareness of their many privileges in life.
These are not the horrible all immigrants should be shot type people but they are still very complicit in how horrible the country is to others by blindly voting tory.
Both parties have made a hash of debating the tax cut or spend with endlessly stupid comments during interviews - Jonathan Ashworth today going around the houses with his unfunded comments about the Tories.
He sounds ridiculous and unable to explain what he's talking about.
In 2017 the Labour manifesto was described at fully costed - this is nothing new. It's ridiculous speak to appease acceptance by certain people in the market system. (And by the way fully funded in that context was still criticised heavily.)
It will be bad for all of us if this conversation is not fully expanded. It will constantly saddle Labour with a restriction on what they can or can't do.
The standard of electioneering is terrible treating the public as morons, instead of feeding them with useful information.
vote for change; vote for a better future for you and your family; that means…vote Labour*
*depending on constituency. While in the overwhelming majority of places voting Lab is the best way of GTTO, there are a decent number of places where it isn’t.
The standard of electioneering is terrible treating the public as morons, instead of feeding them with useful information.
To be fair the time for educating people is the rest of the 5 years not during the campaign.
The standard of electioneering is terrible treating the public as morons
To be fair, 52% of voters recently believed some made-up bullshit written on the side of a bus, so you know…
Mad thing is, Truss’s little flutter nearly lost them their house sale. They had to move in with us for a few months…he still won’t accept that the Tories are all total **** because something something labour Corbyn 70’s strikes something.
I wonder if in 20 years time instead of voting for a needed change everybody whose under 60 now will refuse to vote for a new friendly Tory party because of Brexit something something Boris parties something something Truss cabbage mortgage rates sunak D day something something etc etc
People do have long memories and the last 14 years have been so awful for lots of people that I wonder if large parts of the population could ever bring themselves to vote Tory again .
The Communists, er Greens sorry, have let it be known that people on 50k are wealthy and must pay more tax and NI which is fairer because working hard and earning honest money must be punished...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69111362
Dude cracks me up. Didn’t have Sky. Is that cos you were poor or because your diligent parents thought you’d be fine with council telly, Radio Times and a stack of books?
one term at Winchester = Sky telly for everyone in the town..
people on 50k are wealthy and must pay more tax and NI which is fairer because working hard and earning honest money must be punished…
Earning over £50k puts you in the top 15% so, yes well off. Also paying tax isn't a punishment, it's how society works.
Big fan of what I've seen of the Green party manifesto. Wealth tax on sums over 10m is a fantastic idea. Good to see an arguement for more progressive taxation too.
As for Sunak and his lack of Sky TV.....he just doesn't get it does he? Totally incapable of trying to understand what actual hardship, which many millions face perpetually, is like. He's not even being a dick about it, he is just so far detached from reality. This of course means that he has no business whatsoever running the country and needs to just **** right off asap.
Good to see an arguement for more progressive taxation too.
But also an increase in NI, which is being used here and has been used in the past to hide an increase in the marginal tax rate.
IMO, in the name of tax transparency, they need to do away with employee NICs, and adjust the income tax and CGT bands to compensate - problem with NI remains that it’s not payable on non-work income.
Big fan of what I’ve seen of the Green party manifesto. Wealth tax on sums over 10m is a fantastic idea. Good to see an arguement for more progressive taxation too.
Yep, they are actually what the Labour Party should be. I will be giving them my vote again which will add to the 3,000 they are predicted to get versus the 40,000 tory votes. Almost like I am wasting my time isn't it.
because working hard and earning honest money must be punished
You call it punishment, but you could call it sharing your good fortune and doing your bit to help the country. Interesting which one you chose.
Nice kick on the balls for Sunak this morning re Economic growth… or lack of.
But it’s not the governments fault! So it isn’t fair to blame Rishi. Apparently it’s all because of the weather.
The sky TV stuff is incredibly tin eared, but this is the worst bit by far...
https://twitter.com/gabbsthenewt/status/1800776344852410589?t=9FLDaydqPMg55xs-r1Vhew&s=19
Jaw dropping to be honest
jesus wept, he really didn't realise and had no comprehension of the shit storm coming his way !!!! what a clueless shit of a man.
The Communists, er Greens sorry, have let it be known that people on 50k are wealthy and must pay more tax and NI which is fairer because working hard and earning honest money must be punished…
As someone who benefited from both my own and my parents free university educations in a society with sensible safety nets for those not as lucky as me, and now earns well north of £50k (as does my wife) I support their view and I can afford it. Except I’d call it paying my dues, not punishment.
Poor trolling.
As an aside, free university education (according to ability to learn not ability to pay), with entry at different ages by different routes, backed up by solid vocational education and training probably benefits society and the country as much as the individuals involved. And on that basis the country should pay, which in turn means tax, which to be fair means progressive tax.
Am I right in thinking social mobility, while never perfect, has never been as high as it was in the 1960s - arguably the heyday of that educational model?
The sky TV stuff is incredibly tin eared, but this is the worst bit by far
Wow! Tells you everything you need to know about the man in 30 seconds.
My children have something in common with the PM. Not for reasons of cost either. Looks like his parents had good taste in media selection. A better answer from someone with professional parents is “nothing really, and. I thank my parents for that”. #manofthepeople.
The Communists, er Greens sorry, have let it be known that people on 50k are wealthy and must pay more tax and NI which is fairer because working hard and earning honest money must be punished…
I earn over £50k (just)
I don't work harder than a lot of people, I just have skills that can be better leveraged into making money in a capitalist system. Sometimes the economic cycle means I can't and I have to go find a different way to make money and I've been lucky to work my way into other well paying jobs which did involve longer hours and more niche skills (although arguably easier work overall because it involved a lot of sitting around waiting).
Poor trolling, go read chapter 1 of Capital by Marx and come back with a more rounded understanding of why the effort you put into work is not the defining factor in how much you get paid in return.
Count Binface is, I believe, standing directly against Sunak in his constituency. Given his (Binface's) recent strong finish ahead of the far right in the London election and his similarly strong ties to the constituency, I expect a close race.
Am I right in thinking social mobility, while never perfect, has never been as high as it was in the 1960s
Probably. For those that had a good day when they sat their 11+. Not for the others.
I was the last year to sit 11+ in my town and go to a grammar school. My sister in the year below me, went to the subsequently merged comprehensive. She’d never have become a deputy head teacher had she been born in my year.
"Earning over £50k puts you in the top 15% so, yes well off."
Try supporting a family and paying a mortgage on 50k, trust me you won't feel "well off".
So why does working harder to earn a pittance salary like 50k mean the government should take more of your money? That isn't "fair". That is socialist thinking.
This is and always has been one of the main dividing lines between the political left and the right.
You may not feel well off but you are better off than the other 85%.
How do you think taxation should work and what should the government be providing for the 85%?
@grimep - I suggest you check average household income if you think £50k is a pittance.
Probably. For those that had a good day when they sat their 11+. Not for the others.
Agreed - which is why multiple routes and multiple ages for entry is a necessity.
But, yes, agreed.
The electoral calculus website is showing Labour 472, I'm sure that's down from 485 about 10 days ago. Tories up from about low 60s to 76 and iirc lib up one to 60. My first reaction was 'No!!!!!' Then i remembered that's still a 300 seat majority. Panic over. 🤣
To be slightly more serious, I guess the numbers on that website are wildly different to most polls, I'm not sure why it comes up so high on Google searches.
I had been very bouyed by the apparently very real prospect of the tories being pushed down to 3rd and not the official opposition, but that seems a little less likely this week.
The wrong premise is being discussed here, politicians talk about cutting or freezing taxes whereas the issue should be fighting for higher incomes. A functioning welfare state needs paying for and some of the highest taxed economies have the highest standards of living eg Denmark, Finland. Moaning about £50k being inadequate for a mortgage is because the housing system has been adjusted to benefit developers and landlords, neither major party is addressing that issue.
https://Twitter.com/parody_pm/status/1800779190066876630?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Man of the people Rishi .
They’re interviewing a load of 16-18 year olds about politics on Five Live. One of them just said “we don’t have Sky TV. I cry myself to sleep every night” 😂
the housing system has been adjusted to benefit developers and landlords, neither major party is addressing that issue.
There are a few things that can be done though - IMO they should move to a property tax for business premises, which would include rental properties.
I think the LDs have committed to ‘use it or lose it’ planning permission to stop land banking (which is a problem), and Lab have said they’re going to look at increasing density (which is also something we need to do).
I don’t know what the score is with Right to Buy but that definitely needs reform.
I had been very bouyed by the apparently very real prospect of the tories being pushed down to 3rd and not the official opposition, but that seems a little less likely this week.
as much as Id love to see it, it was always very unlikely, its still a possibility though
there does seem to be a small drop in the labour numbers 1-2% thsi past week, which is not unexpected from such a big gap , I wonder if a Labour win being baked in, is tempting people to lend their votes to LDs & Green?
heres that video if I can get it to embed
https://twitter.com/gabbsthenewt/status/1800776344852410589
“Earning over £50k puts you in the top 15% so, yes well off.”
Try supporting a family and paying a mortgage on 50k, trust me you won’t feel “well off”.
So why does working harder to earn a pittance salary like 50k mean the government should take more of your money? That isn’t “fair”. That is socialist thinking.
You're literally saying yourself that 85% of the country have to do the same thing on less than what you consider a "pittance"
I honestly can't tell if you're invoking Poe's law at this point.
I fail to understand that TiRed; why wouldn't you sister have become deputy head if she'd sat the 11+ ?
I wouldn't (couldn't) have done any better in terms of exam results in a grammar school than in the secondary modern, the difference is perhaps in the attitude the secondary mod left me with - ingnoring my sprinting ability and self-defence skills.
Grant Shapps what's £25,000 between friends 😕
Try supporting a family and paying a mortgage on 50k, trust me you won’t feel “well off”.
So why does working harder to earn a pittance salary like 50k mean the government should take more of your money? That isn’t “fair”. That is socialist thinking.
Maybe the wee extra all the people on 50k and up will pay will allow for better schools, dentists for your kids, funding of council facilities you and your kids will use, better transport and then your pittance of £50k might actually go a bit further in reality.
Moaning about £50k being inadequate for a mortgage is because the housing system has been adjusted to benefit developers and landlords, neither major party is addressing that issue.
Labour have at least said a bit more than the Tories on this subject, and their manifesto isn't out till tomorrow. It's still weak on the details, but they're talking about the how and not just the why; new towns, increased social housing, reforming planning laws, helping with getting mortgages etc...
A reminder that if you're lucky enough to be on £50K [ more than twice what I'm on, and four times what my other half is on ] the Tories have raised your taxes by stealth... and whoever wins the next election, even the Tories, you're going to be expected to pay more in a way the majority earning less than you are not.
Most working people in the UK earn less than £36k. Any increase in taxes needs to fall on those earning more than that, for the reasons you state (try paying your mortgage/rent and bringing up kids on the kind of income most people have). Or raised by changes to taxes paid by people doing well but not working, eg GCT changes and closing down the use of schemes used to minimise income and wealth that are not wages.