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I think the Tories might be in for a rude awakening in the ‘Blue Wall’
I'll never forgive Redwood* for quitting this year and denying me my local Portillo moment.
The only problem for the Lib Dems is they've taken over the council propped up by Labour and have some VERY unpopular decisions to make that the Tory's repeatedly kicked into the long grass. Like approving 4500 new houses on a single greenbelt development or suffer death by 1000 cuts as they lose every other smaller planning application on appeal as the Tory's never developed/passed a workable local housing development plan.
*again, he's perennially unforgivable
It’s the first time I’ve heard that theory. Have you got a link to a political analyst who claims that Russians are in Syria because Putin wants to help the far right in western Europe?
I was talking about the rise of the AfD being directly linked to immigration in the 2010s - particularly in light of Merkel's "We've got this" speech of 2015(14?). In this regard I can refer you to the excellent 'Shortest History of Germany' by James Hawes. His main contention is that the Roman 'limes' still dictate largely where attitudes prevail and that the Elbe, not the Rhine is the temperamental border in N Europe. But he lays the blame for the large spike in AfD popularity at the door of the Syrian migration crisis.
As for the initial point about Russia weaponising Syrian migration to Europe - here you go.
I was talking about the rise of the AfD being directly linked to immigration in the 2010s
You claimed that Russia are involved in the Syrian civil war because they want to help the far-right in Western Europe destroy the EU by creating refugees.
There must surely be easier and cheaper ways to help the AfD?
The overwhelming majority of Syrian refugees are in Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, btw.
I’ll never forgive Redwood* for quitting this year and denying me my local Portillo moment.
@thisisnotaspoon - I follow Redwood on Twitter just to witness how incredible it is that one man can be so consistently wrong about absolutely everything for the duration of his entire life. Its uncanny.
This would support the regularly-made claim that he is fact from another planet
It’s not just the AfD, it’s not just Germany… but you know all this, even without reading anything posted above.
I know that the Russians are not as suggested in Syria specifically to create a refugee problem in Western Europe to help the far-right parties undermine the EU.
I also know that there are relatively few Syrian refugees in Europe, the one exception is Germany. The overwhelmingly majority are in countries neighbouring Syria.
I also know that every day brings a new conspiracy theory on the internet. Yesterday I learnt that apparently the Oct 7 Hamas attack was actually carried out by the United States and Israel, the motive apparently was to get their hands on Iran's oil. Yeah go figure.
You claimed that Russia are involved in the Syrian civil war because they want to help the far-right in Western Europe destroy the EU by creating refugees.
There must surely be easier and cheaper ways to help the AfD?
The overwhelming majority of Syrian refugees are in Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, btw.
Taking those in turn.
1. I said that Putin was getting what he wanted from Syria - a destabilising flow of refugees from Syria into Europe. You asked for links - there are two above. One is a US General in an official statement where he identifies the use of weapons and targeting with no military purpose other than to make people 'get on the road' as he puts it.
2. There are, and he probably does those too. Why would the two strands be mutually exclusive?
3. You know as well as I do that actual numbers are only a part in creating the narrative of fear. Particularly in post-industrial western countries where there are large pockets of left-behind people who are easier prey for populists. And the countries you mention are simply closer and also more closely aligned religiously and culturally to Syrians in any case. Any migration flow in history has a massive bias in where people end up towards the least distant and the most likely to be similar to 'home'.
My mention of political analysts was specifically I with regard to the escalation of support for the AfD in the wake of what some perceived as an open door policy from Merkel in the wake of what turned out to be peak migration from Syria. That correlation is covered in the book I referred you to. As well as being well documented elsewhere.
Hope this helps.
Hope this helps.
I understood exactly what you said, it's here:
A few years ago I saw a report on Syria that postulated at the end “we still don’t know what Russia wants in Syria”. I thought at the time it was an odd thing to say. It revealed a bias towards the west, quite reasonably, wanting an end to the conflict and some kind of resolution. But it completely misunderstood Putin. He’s all about constant destabilisation that allows nationalist-populists to sow fear in western Europe.
Putin got (and continues to get) exactly what he wants out of Syria – a constant flow of Muslim, brown-skinned refugees into western Europe where they can then be pointed at by the far right as an easy target and used to sow fear.
I just don't agree with the premise behind the theory. Let's leave it at that.
where they can then be pointed at by the far right as an easy target and used to sow fear
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The poster was released by Nigel Farage of the UK Independence Party and depicted a photograph of Syrian refugees near the Croatia-Slovenia border in 2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breaking_Point_(UKIP_poster)
Had some LibDem bumph through the door today, first bit of election material I've had so far. I've actually been delivering them myself as part of my postie job.
Never heard of the guy but he's a local lad apparently Daniel Callaghan. He's campaigning on all of the right local issues and billing himself as the only real alternative to Sunak. If that were really the case I could see myself tactically voting for him instead of my prefered Labour.
However, no idea how accurate UK Polling Report is but they are predicting Sunak holding the seat on 43% with Labour on 27% and Lib Dem coming fourth behind Reform on 9%. Shame really, it seems like the anti Sunak vote is split there.
I know a lot of the local Tories are thinking of giving a protest vote but I can't see them giving it to Labour.
Yeah I will be following my heart and voting Labour but having seen the Lib Dem thing I'm surprised a lot of the older local Tories that I know aren't going in that direction.
Where’s that?
Mid Bucks constituency, I'm hoping this lot might help but not holding too much hope.
https://www.midbucksprimary.org/
Another poll/prediction is giving labour a closer but still dim shout at 29%, so I'll probably stick with them & make sure the family know too.
I think the Tories might be in for a rude awakening in the ‘Blue Wall’
I can assure you we're doing our best to make it happen. 🙂
Good luck! We’re doing our best to get shut of ‘em up here
I want my own personal Portillo Moment when our useless Tory MP, Deputy Chairman James Daly (majority 100) is given his marching orders. I’ll be stopping up for that result coming in if I have to sit up all night 😃
In Rutland Labour is predicted 2% behind the Tories, if only a few Libs or Greens could see sense Kearns would be OUT.
A week to the deadline for withdrawal notices, I guess if Reform were planning on repeating the antics of the Brexit party then they'll wait to the final hour to prevent Labour , Libdems and Greens acting in kind.
Latest poll
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-7-10-june-2024/
A 3 point increase for Labour in 4 days. And Reform UK 2 points behind the Tories.
These polls are getting silly. I don’t believe it will be anything like that on the 4th.
so much for the polls narrowing once the election was called 😕
Well whatever else happens, Ed Davey seems to be having a fantastic time. Are we sure he isn’t just on holiday?
Our constituency is very similar (the recently created East Grinstead and Uckfield). Torys are predicted to get in on a massive majority due to huge numbers of city boys and racist pensioners.
Problem we have is that the Labour candidate is a bit of a bellend.
So for me its probably got to be Lib Dems as the candidate is a good guy but if the lib dem and lab vote was combined it would get rid of the Tory......
But there seems to be no tactical campaign
Here’s self confessed Zionist Shitlord Luke Akehurst attempting to connect with voters, good try Luke, now crawl back under your stone
Was speaking to my lefty Marxist friend few days ago regarding the GE, which according to him might not be a massive win for Labour. He told me he had some "expert" information on the possible GE outcome which may disappoint Labour if they were hoping for a landslide victory. He is very active politically and will go out to protest whenever there is a need.
Hhhmmmm ...
Here’s self confessed Zionist Shitlord Luke Akehurst attempting to connect with voters, good try Luke, now crawl back under your stone
What a truly terrible video - doesn't Mossad pay for media training these days?
These polls are getting silly. I don’t believe it will be anything like that on the 4th.
Reading won the Championship in 2005/6 with 106 points. It was an inevitability from about February but I didn't enjoy the season, because in my world we were going to implode at some point. We always do. March came and went, in late March we were mathematically up but still could in theory get caught for the title. Early April it was done and dusted. I wish I'd believed we were uncatchable long before I did, so I could have enjoyed the experience.
I'm having the same thoughts, except this could go literally to the last day.
What a truly terrible video – doesn’t Mossad pay for media training these days?
Isn't it odd that according to conspiracy theorists Mossad controls all the media but also what they do is immediately obvious to unremarkable people on the Internet? 🤔
These free members coming on here to defend Mossad and Dinners Akehurst eh?
Luke Akehurst's favourite conspiracy theory currently is that the United Nations is anti-semitic.
BillMC
Full Member
These free members coming on here to defend Mossad and Dinners Akehurst eh?
I don't know if you're anti-Semitic, but you're clearly anti-semantics.
Awkward.
UN agency warns of new Rwanda abuses evidence
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55yqn0322o
I don’t know if you’re anti-Semitic, but you’re clearly anti-semantics.
Deserved a hand-clap
The United Nations’ refugee agency has warned judges it may have new evidence from 2024 that Rwanda has endangered asylum seekers, despite Parliament passing a law declaring the country is safe.
If the Tories passed a law declaring Rwanda a safe country surely no one can legally contradict them?
I have to say Rishi Sunak missed a trick by not expanding on this brilliant tactic - he could have passed laws declaring that there are no NHS queues, no inflation, etc
Reform, still full of wrong'uns:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko
Reform UK candidate has apologised for claiming the country would be "far better" if it had "taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality" instead of fighting the Nazis in World War Two.
Ian Gribbin, the party's candidate in Bexhill and Battle, also wrote online that women were the "sponging gender" and should be "deprived of health care".
In posts from 2022 on the Unherd magazine website, seen by the BBC, he said Winston Churchill was "abysmal" and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin.
That Akehurst film is a shoddy, embarrassing mess.
On a technical level (shooting shadows across a face, terrible editing and leaving DJI mic packs in full view) - it's enough make me change career.
Naomi Klein
> https://twitter.com/i/status/1800166131787001986
We need people like Klein to be on screen currently.
She's right, we're doing - right-wing failure then centrist 'solutions' which gives way to more extreme right-wing parties/ideas and thus more collapse.
Naomi Klein
Yup, it would be silly not to learn the lessons from Europe. But we probably won't.
Rishi Sunak thought that he could beat Reform UK at their own game despite all the historical evidence from Europe which shows that the far-right always wins when the debate is centred on asylum seekers/immigration.
I don't get the impression that Keir Starmer is smart enough to pull the rug from under Reform UK. Well he has said that nothing will change very much for the foreseeable future, because the country is alledgedly in such a mess, which must be music to Reform UK's ears.
Especially as they know that it is highly unlikely that voters will rush back to the Tories that quickly.
Naomi Klein
Dunno what muskrat has done to twitter links but they don't open.
I have to say Rishi Sunak missed a trick by not expanding on this brilliant tactic – he could have passed laws declaring that there are no NHS queues, no inflation, etc
Given how their campaign is going, expect that by next Tuesday
That redfield poll is insane when you put the numbers in electoral calculus
Nice one on Klein to smack those brazenly stupid Labour fabricated Thatcherite fiscal-rules across the screen.
Dodds nodding along either out of embarrassment or agreement.
My Portillo moment will be if - and, hopefully, when - Saj Ahmad beats jenrick in Newark.
The polls are showing this to be absolutely neck and neck, now one of the most marginal constituencies in the country.
jenrick's majority in 2019 was 21,000+; his campaign this time is best described as 'low energy'.
The constituency is a 'non-battleground' seat for Labour which means we don't get funding from regional office or party central; nor do we get any visits from shadow ministers so our ground game has to be - and is - strong.
jenrick has deep pockets as do his supporters; local Labour is reliant on crowd-funding and a people powered campaign.
It would be so nice to see that King **** out.
jenrick has deep pockets as do his supporters; local Labour is reliant on crowd-funding and a people powered campaign.
Given Newark is close by me - but not my area, curious how Jenrick performed with the floods?
Well whatever else happens, Ed Davey seems to be having a fantastic time. Are we sure he isn’t just on holiday?
I must say I find the constant stunts a bit cringey but we're in a situation where we can release yet another painstakingly researched, fully costed policy that will genuinely improve peoples' lives and it'll appear at the bottom of the BBC front page for about a hour if we're lucky.
All the whilst at the top of the page they breathlessly livestream the minutae of this morning's reaction to whatever undeliverable fever dream Farage has belched up this morning.
So.. silly stunts to get attention it is then I guess.
Akehurst is such a colossal ****. He genuinely is without any redeeming features or ability.....god knows how he has been so successful in the Labour party. He is going to be an absolute liability for them.
My fav bit of the video is definitely when his tie blows across him 🤣
My 14 year old lad asked me about Reform today. He said they are all over tiktok targeting young people in videos. It is the only party he has seen online.
@rone re jenrick and trent valley flooding...let's just say his performance and input have been unimpressive.
The lead has been taken by the district council and their initiatives to develop an integrated approach/policy with the EA and Canals & Rivers trust with jenrick trying to 'jump onto the coat tails'.
That's great - as far as it goes - but will need chunky central gov support. Whether or not that materialises is an open question.
Are you in Worksop? Clarke-Smith will have his arse handed to him on a plate.
So.. silly stunts to get attention it is then I guess.
"Apparently" it's all about manipulating the social media algorithms. If you pause and watch my reel where I fall on my arse 2 or 3 times, then maybe your feed will also show you my sensible post tomorrow and you'll glimpse what we are really about.
The media team of the Lib Dems seem to be outperforming the halfwits around Rishi by substantial multiples
An interesting stay on Newsnight that the Tories are presently polling in 5th with 18-25 year olds, so I presume that Count Binface has more support
Count Binface is just behind Messi, the Pope and Paul McCartney
Check my maths but....
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1799884364018254264
That's 100 people an hour. So about 1100 in his 8:20pm post since 9am. AIUI they're all chucking £25 in to Nige's pot but it's hardly a stirring number, is it?
Some amazing work on TikTok from Labour and the Lib Dems. Ed Davies is rating dogs on the campaign trail, and Labour are trolling the Tories with Sylvanian families.
That this sort of nonsense https://www.tiktok.com/@labourparty/video/7377417464218422561 (Irish Labour)
is needed to appeal to people of voting age, doesn't exactly support the argument for lowering it to 16.
Is this real? What does that photo immediately remind you of? Surely they haven't missed that or are Reform actually putting out Nazi memes?
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1800208664328093955
Plausible deniability.
With a wink.
He's ok, nothing mad about "our Nige".
Are you in Worksop? Clarke-Smith will have his arse handed to him on a plate.
Yeah that's what I thought but I saw a close prediction recently. No idea how much weight it carries.
BCS is truly awful and personally insulted me - not that I care, badge of honour. Think a lot see through him actually but also people don't believe Labour are going to come to their rescue either. It's a difficult situation - Worksop is properly run-down these days, like lots of post-industrial towns. You can see lack of investment everywhere.
Thanks for the re-cap on the floods. Be interesting to see how the usually loyal farming community in Newark/Sherwood area are with their blue banners this time. Used to be Mark Spencer everywhere.
I worked with a farmer a few weeks ago in Caunton and he was basically relying on a county council subsidised tree/hedge planting scheme.
Another NI cut in the offing, no wonder Starmer has been careful on the fiscal front facing that sort of populist nonsense, still give with one hand, take with the other as tax thresholds still set to be locked until 2028. Not that it really matters as nothing the say now will actually happen, they can promise anything just to try and stem the exodus knowing there is no way they have to do it.
Also from the Brexit playbook.
If you don't like this manifesto then don't worry, we have others.
that the Tories are presently polling in 5th with 18-25 year olds,
It's almost as if spending the kast decade increasingly focusing on policies and soundbites that appeal to and benefit brexity pensioners will cost you outside of your core demographic.
The nonsense about national service was just the cherry on top.
Awkward.
UN agency warns of new Rwanda abuses evidence
Hardly awkward when your main election strategy seems to be appealing to the kind of folk that like performative cruelty towards foreigners - and ones that are easy targets at that.
And I don't believe the polls either. Not to the extent that they are showing a Labour landslide in any case. It feels too good to be true.
Tax cuts especially coming from the Tories are a total distraction.
They've messed with tax system so much that it means nothing.
Focus on spending. Who's putting money back into the economy that needs billions?
All eyes on the Fed for the next two days - a cut will ripple through the system. ECB has done it and Bank of Canada.
Front running the Fed is unusual.
If the Fed do cut - BoE will likely cut and Tories will have massive hard-ons for about a day.
Jury is out though on Powell still looking for evidence of monetarist madness. Consensus is they won't.
And to be fair a .25% cut unlikely to shift much at all now!
but we’re in a situation where we can release yet another painstakingly researched, fully costed policy that will genuinely improve peoples’ lives and it’ll appear at the bottom of the BBC front page for about a hour if we’re lucky.
It was top on my BBC News feed most of yesterday. Happy for him to do the stunts as sensible and pragmatic policies alone don't get attention.
I get lost with politics and don't spend a huge amoutn of time researching bits and pieces - so I'm asking this from a very naive position but...
The Tories seem to be making quite a few pledges/promises - obviously keen to win over votes - but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?
They've been in for 14 years - why are they making all these pledges/promises to improve the everyday for the average person now instead of doing it throughout the past 14 years?
I suspect the same could be suggested for the other parties, except they haven't been in the position of power for the last 14 years so haven't had to deliver on their word.
I'm in Scotland and have the same question for the SNP (athough, I think up until 2019, they did seem to do stuff for the average person, just the last 5 years have shown quite a lot of dropped plates).
That's now two policies that Reform have suggested that I agree with. One is about stopping paying interest on top of QE to the banks, and the other is [entirely self interestedly] about reducing the tax burden on healthcare workers wages. (zero income tax for 3 years)
Populism huh, who'd have thought it..? I feel unclean.
The Tories seem to be making quite a few pledges/promises – obviously keen to win over votes – but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?
have you seen those 40 new hospitals ? they are amazing 😕