Anyone know if the Tories have filled all the candidate vacancies?
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1799555139453198814
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1799558244127461761
I think last week was deliberate, Sunak really is trying to lose now.
If all you have to do is be seen at an event (for it's full duration) channeling your inner boredom into the appearance of a solemn, somber politician and you would be guaranteed positive coverage just for basically just doing your job, then choosing to do anything other is throwing away a chunk of that core, flag shagging vote for the sake of it.
I do actually reckon now that Lil' Rishi's worst nightmare would be to win the GE. He's going through the motions whilest quietly browsing Bay Area properties.
I reckon he really does "get it" now, and wants no more part of it anymore. The Tories have more or less wrung the UK dry and another stint in power would be the worst thing imaginable for the party...
Anyone know if the Tories have filled all the candidate vacancies?
All but one, apparently. We’ll see how long that lasts as their hastily assembled candidates have their last 10 years of social media posts forensically scrutinised by the press. I expect there are a lot of skeletons ready to come out of their closets
In the meantime, the Tory’s appear to be re-hashing Ed Milliband era campaign posters. I’m not sure they’ve thought this one through….
https://Twitter.com/purplesquidcopy/status/1799734838926442827?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Johnson referred to Keir ‘Schnorrer’ (a yiddish term for scrounger or beggar) obviously alluding to his declared zionism, Jewish wife, Israeli social media man, LFI appointees etc. Surprised this hasn’t been picked up much in the press
What do you think explains that?
From the bookies point of view of how the last week has gone:
I put a bet on last week for the Lib Dems to win more seats than the Tories at 7/1. I’ve just had a look and that’s now down to 4/1
Overall Labour is essentially evens, the Tories are presently 67/1
As for next Tory leader to replace Rishi, Kemi Badanoch is absolutely nailed on. She’s half the odds (3/1) of her nearest competition (Priti Patel or Penny Mordaunt at 7/1 and Braverman at 9/1)
re-hashing Ed Milliband era campaign posters
The difference is, that was “vote Labour empower the SNP”, this is “vote Labour and elect a Labour government”.
Dear god, the Mel Stride interview on Sky..... they have absolutely no shame!
Mel Stride interview on Sky
I assume Nigel Farage was on the BBC as usual ?
.the next leader will be one of Mordaunt, Baddenoch, Braverman, Hunt, Patel or Shapps.
doesn’t that depend on them keeping their seat?
Only a nutter would want that job
If that's true it'll make the queue for Newcastle's new home shirt look quite reasonable.
Only a nutter would want that job.
Badanoch it is then
So Sunak has sail he'll give £730m to mental health services.
Ignore for a second that he's hollowed it out by much, much more. £730m sounds a huge number to lots of people but it breaks down to roughly £150 per current patient. That's probably 2-3 sessions with a professional at best. That's not going to make a dent.
As usual another headline figure that in reality will make no dent in the damage he and the party have done over the last 15 years.
where's Rishi ? come out come out where ever you are. If he can't face the music he has to go 😕
So Sunak has sail he’ll give £730m to mental health services
It won’t touch the sides.
This article about the catastrophic state of mental health services in this country was in the Guardian yesterday. They’re now past the point of collapse
Britain’s judges are sick of locking up children who just need help. Why has nothing been done?
It makes for pretty shocking and depressing reading that this is happening in an advanced economy. It’s Dickensian!
So Sunak has sail he’ll give £730m to mental health services.
Of his own money?
For election geeks a .csv file of all parties, candidates and constituencies is available here.
Johnson referred to Keir ‘Schnorrer’ ...
They are playing the role of a good cop and a bad cop.
he can’t. They’d need to change the party rules – or take the massive gambles of dropping the Lords, finding an MP in a safe seat to sacrifice it for him, winning that seat, then actually winning the election battle….
Good to know because he should not be back.
the next leader will be one of Mordaunt, Baddenoch, Braverman, Hunt, Patel or Shapps.
None of them can be considered a capable leader, but temporary leader for the party yes as seat warmer. Mordaunt is perhaps slightly better but listening to her debating skills, I don't I think she is there yet as a leader. Whether she can improve remain to be seen. The rest are just shouty shouty type. Hunt is slightly more composed but lacks any vision etc. Shapps <- good cop or bad cop? Patel over the sell by date. Baddenoch needs more experience. Braverman cannot communicate.
Looking at my local candidates we have a gentleman whose family have obviously moved here at some point, standing for reform . On telly the other night was a Chinese looking lady with a thick campaigning for reform accent moaning about immigrants.
Am I missing something?
On telly the other night was a Chinese looking lady with a thick campaigning for reform accent moaning about immigrants.
Am I missing something?
Probably has something to do with HK?
£730 million...this has been said before but why now?? You've had all this time to put things in motion, maybe after people being locked together in their house for about a year it might have been worth just thinking about this issue for a moment, I'm sick of this last minute BS.
How ANYONE defends this shower is unbelievable, I couldn't even list all scandles and corruption, i'd have to start with duck houses and go from there.
Am I missing something?
Only that there are greedy, selfish and uncaring individuals from all backgrounds. See the black republicans that say life was better under Jim Crow as it it suits their personal needs in the present.
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark!
where are they ? conspicuous by their absence 😕
They already are, 4 have committed to Reclaim pledges in return for cash donations. In normal times this would lead to withdrawal of the whip I think, but then they'll have gaps in candidacy
Telegraph so behind paywall but:
Four Tory MPs have defied party bosses and accepted a donation of £5,000 from the donor behind Laurence Fox's Reclaim party. Dame Andrea Jenkyns, Brendan Clarke-Smith, Marco Longhi and Karl McCartney have accepted the cash in exchange for backing the Reclaim Movement's “four-point commitment to culture”
Rishi Sunak “doesn’t understand our history and our culture”.
Is this dog whistle being blown by:
a) a Guardian columnist
b) Nigel Farage
c) STW poster just imagining what prejudices other, nasty people will be disseminating - but definitely not disseminating those prejudices themselves, no, no, no
d) all of the above?
Jenkins is thicker than a whale omelette and Electoral Calculus are predicting 97% probability she will be unemployed on 05 Jun. So too Longhi (86%), McCartney (97%) and Clarke Smith (86%)
They already are, 4 have committed to Reclaim pledges in return for cash donations.
All their seats look like a shoe in for Labour.
Re. Dorries' tweet - I was wondering what would happen if Sunak won his seat, that's the last thing he'd want. I can 100% see her prediction playing out.
Apart from the SNP and UKIP and Reform and Plaid Cymru and all the Northern Irish parties?
Well yes, I made that point at the end of the post you quoted. Common opinion is that it's a two horse race and as long as people view it that way then that's what we're stuck with.
And apart from the PR systems in Northern Ireland and Wales and London and Scotland?
Which have nothing to do with Westminster elections but do demonstrate that PR works.
I think you also have to read between the lines of that Mad Nad Twitter post. 11.11pm on a Saturday night. Imagine how many litres of gin she is running on at that time.
Half an hour more and she will be screaming in the street at the local foxes and scuffling with the neighbours whose turn it is to usher her back indoors this week.
Is she still allowed to use the honorofic title given she's not an MP?
What time do the results usually start to come in on election night? No spare holidays to take the Friday off work, but contemplating either staying up late or getting up really early to see the annihilation of the tories as it happens.
@teesoo - Sunderland is famously usually the first to declare a result at generally not long after the polls close, so expect results coming in from 11pm onwards. I’m going to be staying up to see the Portillo Moments, of which hopefully there will be many 😃
Even before that, at 10pm as polls close they'll release the results of the exit polls. They can't before in case it influences voting, but the experts will have been interviewing voters all day, all across the country and will have a pretty good idea already. Then as votes start coming in we'll see how accurate the exit polls were but generally they're pretty accurate.
So I suspect parties will be starting quite a bit before the actual counts come in (I know they don't do that but when 'the party' is a political grandee having to do interviews with a face like a smacked arse and trotting out 'it's clear it's been a very bad night') then hopefully all but the most decorous will be lifting the lid off a bottle of something good.
3 weeks or so to go, don't count your chickens and keep pressing the message to get out and vote.
Normally at some point in the night, before all results are in, it's clear whose going to win it's just how many. At that point there's usually a 'concession' of sorts. I wonder if Rishi will concede on the basis of exit polls, and then **** off home to avoid further embarrassment.
"What time is the earliest flight to California on July 5th?"
Sunak Air 00:01?
Joking aside, doesn't the outgoing PM have to stay and dissolve Parliament and hand the keys in to number 10 & chequers?
The clear implications is that Sunak isn’t a real “Briton” and doesn’t really “get” WW2
I'd agree with that thought process.
I worked for many years in teams/depts where I was pretty much the only non-public schoolboy, even those who were only half British (through birth) understood 100% what WW2 means to the 'British'.
But then Sunak has previously pledged himself to the USA - only way to get a Green Card.
I see him as a citizen of nowhere, no interest whatsoever in anywhere particular, just there to make the most of it for himself.
I reckon his worse-case scenario is winning his seat and losing the election.
3 weeks or so to go, don’t count your chickens and keep pressing the message to get out and vote.
I said it early on in this thread but absolutely this ^^.
Don't spoil your ballot paper (no-one will read your hilarious remarks or anatomically correct graphic drawings), do get out and vote.
Don't assume everyone else feels the same way, don't assume the polls of electoral wipeout are correct - they won't be correct if everyone assumes that and doesn't bother voting!
I reckon his worse-case scenario is winning his seat and losing the election.
Please let this happen, but have the usual huge majority reduced to about 23 votes. In which case he’ll hang about for about as long as Dave did after losing the Brexit referendum.
So the first by-election would be five weeks after the general election, held against a backdrop of a Tory rats-in-a-sack Leadership campaign which is guaranteed to be absolute comedy gold
"Don’t assume everyone else feels the same way, don’t assume the polls of electoral wipeout are correct – they won’t be correct if everyone assumes that and doesn’t bother voting!"
For the first time my mindset is following this train of thought, as ridiculous as he is, I'm afraid of Reform/Farage making huge in roads.
We need to all vote. And make our votes count. If you leave it to everyone else… well…
Don’t assume everyone else feels the same way, don’t assume the polls of electoral wipeout are correct – they won’t be correct if everyone assumes that and doesn’t bother voting!
I’m sure that’ll it’ll be the same in most other constituencies, but with our CLP there’s a huge effort planned over these next few weeks to make sure people get out and vote. And there’s no shortage of volunteers or enthusiasm, unlike the local Tories who are using paid local agency workers to deliver they’re electoral bumph.
We’re going to be busy. I hope the bloody weather improves!
Sunak has previously pledged himself to the USA – only way to get a Green Card.
This isn't true. A Green Card (permanent resident card) doesn't involve any sort of pledge or undertaking or loyalty to the US. It is only for foreign citizens.
Pledged is overstating, you don't have to naturalise / declare allegiance to be a green card holder, but there are obligations akin to committing yourself to the US. Which makes me wonder whether he does actually hold a green card now?
Your Responsibilities
Law adherence: Compliance with all U.S. laws is mandatory.
Tax obligations: You must file income tax returns.
Selective Service registration: Males aged 18-25 must register, indicating their availability for U.S. Armed Forces service.
Status maintenance: Keep your immigration status updated with the USCIS, including any address changes.
Preserving Your Green Card Status
To avoid unintentional abandonment of your Green Card status, maintain continuous residency in the U.S. Extended periods abroad or failure to meet residency obligations could imply you no longer consider the U.S. your permanent home.
I'm struggling to see how the PM of the UK can be considered to be a continuous resident of the USA
He handed it back. The US doesn't pre-emptively cancel GCs for foreign residences so long as you "clock in" every year or so. There are plenty of people that really live outside the US bur keep their GC valid.
there are obligations akin to committing yourself to the US
There aren't though - that's just tax returns and being locatable as a military aged male. As foreign citizens can't be drafted, that's for the purpose of being interned, not serving...
The point is does anyone believe that Rishi Sunak has any allegiances to anyone beyond himself and his immediate family?
If so, do they actually believe the little guy will still be resident in the UK a week after the election?
The rules for emigration are very different for the super wealthy than the rest of us. Rishi would have no problems whether his green card has expired or not.
What's interesting is that even daily express hacks are enjoying this (also Holdens girlfriend is a politics reporter at The Sun)
https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1799859124047593566?t=b-XXSWfmYp7CF9m-iRTzEw&s=19
Even before that, at 10pm as polls close they’ll release the results of the exit polls.
Which have been incredibly accurate in recent GEs.
You missed a third one out though “maintain continuous residency in the U.S. ” which to me is a commitment.
the caveat being “could imply” leaves some leeway for
The rules for emigration are very different for the super wealthy
He'll be impressed by all those hearty outdoor camping types around Venice and Santa Monica.
I reckon they might have to totally refurb no.10 after Sunak moves out.
Allegedly, to keep morale up during the GE campaign, a sex dungeon has been installed in the basement and the attic has a cannabis farm in full flush ready for harvest.
Gove brings his own marching powder of course.
So France is now going to have a general election at the same time as the UK.
And will quite likely elect a hard right government.
Random observation today after chatting with a dyed in the wool Tory voting relative.....
"Rishi did the right thing by buggering off early, screw the French, the Germans and the bloody "Japs," they should all still be paying us money back. And while we're at it, why should the French get to own E:On!? Our government should be taking it off them and start running it."
🤔 I mean... It's just very confusing.
Does look like there is going to be a scary divergence across the channel, will be in the opposite direction to normal though.
Us going centre (left) and France likely going way right
You missed a third one out though “maintain continuous residency in the U.S. ” which to me is a commitment
You're trying to make out that he's got (or more accurately had) some kind of foreign allegiance because he had a Green Card. This is same old canard as Catholics owing allegiance to Rome or Jews owing allegiance to Israel.
The reality is much more prosaic, and you're getting the "obligation" to live in the US backwards. The only thing that happens if you don't do it is that you are supposed to lose the status. PR status is only for residents. If you're not a resident, you're not eligible and it can be cancelled (same if you don't file tax returns or break the law etc). The US is not very diligent about cancelling it for people that really live outside the US - I have a colleague that hasn't lived there since about 2005 but she pops over every now and again to keep it formally active. For Sunak - it's a bit harder to fly under the radar when you're an MP or later a minister, and he handed it back because he wasn't eligible to keep it.
In any case - he's not going to find it hard to get back there esp if his wife and kids have status there. The (possibly cynical) rumour is that he has picked school places for his kids in California to start in September.
Are bookies giving odds on Sunak being an MP in July 2025?
deleted, irrelevant to the main topic
Us going centre (left)
Sorry, but I don't think the Greens are going to win 😉
Labour is set for a majority of 416 at the upcoming general election, leaving the Tories at just 37 seats, according to the new Deltapoll survey, which puts Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 46 per cent compared to the Conservatives on 21 per cent – with even the prime minister set to lose his Yorkshire seat
Eh? Tories left with just 37 MPs?
This is getting silly now. I reckon Deltapoll should have gone back and done another survey, there is clearly something very wrong with their poll results. I would have struggled to believe it if they had said double that, 74.
Decent article here about the short term effects of the swing too the right across Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv22vne9x03o
As always, will be interesting to see the "charismatic right wing, anti-elites" simple solutions to difficult problems hit reality.
Having a taste of far right politics might allow people to see the reality. Either way, it's going to happen.
I just think these things are cyclic probably and a swing back to the left will happen and so on....
ernielynch
Full Member
Labour is set for a majority of 416 at the upcoming general election
Yeah, I just don't see the swing to Labour being as big as some of these predictions say but what do I know?
As long as the Tories lose the GE I'll be happy enough for the moment. Not so long ago another Tory term seemed inevitable. Boris the party animal did for them, they never recovered their votes after that.
Funny leaders don't make good leaders, shocker.
The EU results and what's going on in France, Germany, etc is just the change that's occurred slowly over the years, with a bit of impetus now due to Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza and so on, the EU has always been a bit of a basket case due to so many moving parts that make it operate, i think it's in for a rough few years ahead to keep operating the way it wants, probably the only benefit to us from Brexit is we might avoid the pain of in-fighting in the European Parliaments that'll become more prevalent.
Still, hopefully we get our house in order after this election, the way things are going in Europe, i'm optimistic that we might get another chance in the next 5-10 years of having a better relationship/deal with the EU.
^^ Damned true! 😁
Just wondering about those EU results.....