I'm having a whisky sharpener now so I'll stay up a bit. It's only 12:30 in British summertime
**** this. I'm going to watch some zombies get hacked to bits then come back.
That's not a dig at Trump voters. Mostly.
You may be right about Florida - Cuban population etc. Ohio is early encouraging signs - suburban votes headed for Biden. Trump doesn't get Ohio he's toast.
But - and it's a big but - usually high turnout favours the challenger. The early raw numbers seem to be showing that might not be true this time. Trump is very, very good at getting his base out. That is the real sphincter pucker factor.
Amazing how screaming ‘socialism’ again and again with absolutely no evidence has made the difference in florida
Pensioners, rednecks and diaspora from corrupt former Spanish colony in voting for corrupt wannabe banana republic dictator shocker.
There are still a million votes to count in Florida. Presumably they’re onto the mail ins now.
I believe Florida counts in person ballots last so it's likely to skew further towards trump. I think it's fairly certain Florida has gone red
Florida mail ins counted first. Only remaining are all Trump counties, so looks like Trump wins FL
Stay with it boys; have a whisky sharpener to keep you going.
It’s very early.
Two fingers of Aldi spiced rum to keep me focused. Nearly drained all the IPAs I got in to keep me company. Looks like I'll be forced to breach the missus' stash of San Miguel. All in a good cause though..
There are still a million votes to count in Florida. Presumably they’re onto the mail ins now.
Really? That's slightly more hopeful. Guess that's why they're not calling Florida yet
Florida mail ins counted first. Only remaining are all Trump counties, so looks like Trump wins
Bummer
AP projection says Mitch McConnell has held onto his Senate seat. 😒
If the Latinos gift Florida to Trump I'm going to drink all the San Miguels out of spite. She'll understand
AP projection says Mitch McConnell has held onto his Senate seat.
Bummer
But to be expected, Kentucky is a redneck state through and through
It's closing in Texas. My early pessimism has not abated!
Mitch Mcconnell losing his seat would be a sure sign of the apocalypse. I'm waiting to find out what happens to Graham.
2020 finale: Trump wins, No Deal Brexit, Queen dies of Covid, then on December 31st NASA picks up the first signals of a giant planet-killer meteorite.
McConnell wouldn't behave like he does if his seat wasn't safe as houses. It's kind of a vicious circle. It's a horrible thing to say but he's not leaving his position til he dies and therefore that can't happen soon enough
That sounds like bollocks Daz. I can’t see the article in the NYT and every other media outlet is calling it for or betting on Biden in Ohio. The bookies are heavily swinging to Biden in Ohio.
NASA picks up the first signals of a giant planet-killer meteorite.
A welcome finale.... As long as we get a decent heads up. Don't want the wine and emergency drugs to go to waste.
December 31st NASA picks up the first signals of a giant planet-killer meteorite.
At that point can we actually, finally declare that 26" are dead?
People are getting overexcited about Florida. It's a damn shame if Biden hasn't taken it, because that would have not just done much to secure the win, it'd also help counter dirty tricks. But it's always been a critical state for Trump, not so much for Biden. Just remember, that's where Florida Man votes.
Likewise Georgia, which also looks like it might be going to Trump- that's been a republican state since 92, it looked to be doable but it's also not critical.
I could be mistaken but I think all of the seats that have declared so far were fairly safe, except for maybe Virginia which has gone back and forth a bit in recent years.
Basically, take a breath. The first round knockout's not happened, still a lot of fight left.
Mainly because if Florida went blue I could go to bed.
Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas are all nice to haves for Biden. If he takes the rust belt and holds the Clinton states, he wins. That means Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. If he takes Ohio he can afford to lose any of those other than Pennsylvania.
I reckon he'll lose Georgia for sure and probably Texas. But he's got a fighting chance in North Carolina
People are getting overexcited about Florida.
Maybe, but Florida has gone in favour of the eventual winner an awful lot of times. Demographics are changing quite significantly, especially in suburbs of traditional red states which may change the Florida predictor.
To put Dazs comment in perspective, five thirty eight are correct when they say that “if Florida goes to Trump, though, his chances of winning the Electoral College would go up to 33%.
If he wins Georgia, his chances would go to 38%. If he won North Carolina, the race would still be a toss-up.”
FiveThirtyEight had predicted Biden was more likely to take Florida though. A potential sign the polls “wrong” again?
If you put a Trump Florida win into their simulator the predictions don’t look nearly so rosy:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
Nate Silver - “ One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent.“
Kim Darroch saying that he’s unable to call it and lots of confusing results such as Bidens performance in Texas.
On the upside, the two times Florida has not elected the eventual winner since the 60s, they've voted Republican and the winner was the democrat, iirc
A potential sign the polls “wrong” again?
Polls are always wrong in the sense that they are never exactly right. There is a margin of error in any poll, typically about 3 points with a sample of 1000 people. A poll that is within 3% of the final result (i.e. a 6 point confidence interval) is not wrong. Trump winning Florida is not particularly surprising.
What would be a major concern would be if polls across multiple states showed a consistent error towards one candidate or the other. That would mean that something systematic had been overlooked, rather than normal random noise.
Biden still ahead in Ohio by 2 percent with 60 percent of votes counted....
What would be a major concern would be if polls across multiple states showed a consistent error towards one candidate or the other. That would mean that something systematic had been overlooked, rather than normal random noise.
Or that polls turned out to be wrong in multiple events over time. Which they have, recently. The most accurate polling device in recent years has been the social media based aggregator, which has been correct recently where traditional polls haven't.
GrahamS
Full MemberFiveThirtyEight had predicted Biden was more likely to take Florida though. A potential sign the polls “wrong” again?
Nope- they had him "slightly favoured" to win, not a strong prediction.
Though, the forecsats are definitely less reliable than normal, I think everyone who understands polls at all, understands that- the huge polarisation and the mobilisation of so many voters inevitably does that.
Biden still ahead in Ohio by 2 percent with 60 percent of votes counted….
Just 0.3% with 64 percent counted (according to CNN) 😳
Remember that in a lot of states there's a specific vote counting order- so the votes announced so far aren't necessarily much of a prediction of the next lot. Honestly I think the desire for rolling news and instant results is just pretty well thwarted by the US electoral system. Possibly the only thing it actually does well?
Going to bed. Not much looking forward to checking the phone tomorrow but que sera, sera.
#GoTeamMeteorite
As I pointed out back in 2016, another key factor for understanding minority support for Trump may be that minorities often hold antipathy toward other minority groups. As a consequence, even if we understand many of Trump’s policies and rhetoric to indeed be racist, minorities could support Trump precisely because his rhetoric or policies seem to target other minorities, whom they also dislike.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahah
#postmodernfascism #sillyhumans
Reckon Daz might have been right, looking forward to 5 more years of insanity and a no deal brexit. **** it, I'm taking the role in Geleen.
Well, just back from watching fear the walking dead.
Now I'm fearing Ohio. It's really not looking good is it?
Ohio was always goung to be a crap ahoot.
Arizona is looking better because of demographic change. That would be a pick up for Biden.
It's certainly more of a nailbiter than I initially thought.
However, Biden can lose Ohio and still win, as long as he holds the Clinton states and wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Other than Wisconsin there will be a lag in favour of Biden as the other three don't start to process early voting until the day of the vote.
Virginia is giving me the willies but apparently it's normal and once Fairfax comes in it should revert to Democrat
It’s certainly more of a nailbiter than I initially thought.
However, Biden can lose Ohio and still win, as long as he holds the Clinton states and wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Other than Wisconsin there will be a lag in favour of Biden as the other three don’t start to process early voting until the day of the vote.
Virginia is giving me the willies but apparently it’s normal and once Fairfax comes in it should revert to Democrat
This.
It was always going to be closer than it should be. The professor who has correctly called every election son 1984 said 7 factors to 6 for Biden.
This is much more tense than I can remember in past elections and the timescale for finalising counts seems longer. Polls seem to have got it wrong again e.g Texas, Florida, North Carolina. I'm desperately hoping Biden wins and the Democrats get the Senate.
So early to call, Pennsylvania looking key and that's not going to finish before tomorrow. Not really getting what's happening with early voting and mail ins tho, wasn't the shout that Trump would get early leads due to in person?
Arizona looking good for Biden. If he takes that and the two single college votes in Maine and Nebraska then he can win without Pennsylvania. Or indeed take Pennsylvania and lose Michigan. If he takes Arizona + the two single votes and all four of the rust belts he can afford to lose Virginia.
Ye gods it's complex stuff though. Not sure rum + IPA is ideal for the comex permutationing
Nebraska's already called for Trump, no?
Not really getting what’s happening with early voting and mail ins tho, wasn’t the shout that Trump would get early leads due to in person?
Individual states set their own rules. Some count the mail ins before election day, some don't. Some count the mail ina first, then election day. Others do it the other way round. Some have a firm of electronic voting for election day but paper ballots for mail in. So it all depends.
Seems like Biden is doing better in the early vote as predicted in those that are counted.
But conversely, Trump is doing better for in person?
Not really getting what’s happening with early voting and mail ins tho, wasn’t the shout that Trump would get early leads due to in person?
Some states counted early votes early (eg Florida, Texas and I believe Ohio) which gave Biden an early lead, subsequently whittled away by Trump's mob on the day. Other states haven't processed early votes until today and some prioritise on the day votes. Those - which include Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota - will show Trump as being ahead initially, but should then see him being clawed back.
You also have the phenomenon whereby small, rural states - which mostly plump for Trump overwhelmingly - are much quicker to return their counts, which gives the honey monster a strong early lead. This can be seen in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Virginia. The big cities always take longer to deliver their counts. As these come in we'll hopefully see the reverse of what we saw in Florida and Texas..
If it turns out that Trump wins I'm going to eat my own anus and attempt to break the space time continuum.
I'm on Amazon as I speak looking at dental floss.
Can't help but remember the SNL sketch that was posted the other day 🙁
Still, the upside is I found a 2002 Grand Cru medoc at the back of the cupboard, while searching for drinkable wine 🍷🍷🍷🍷🍷🍷. Saving that for a time when something good happens in politics tho. Reckon it'll keep for another decade or so...
That's me done, fatigue wins. If he holds onto the lead in Arizona (which i think he will, they haven't forgotten McCain) and nothing silly happens in Virginia, then he's got a decent chance in the rustbelt. Guess I'll find out in the morning..
Not really getting what’s happening with early voting and mail ins tho, wasn’t the shout that Trump would get early leads due to in person?
Yes, this is the Trump campaign's hail Mary. In many states, the postal ballots cannot be processed until election day, so they are counted last. The expectation is that postal ballots will heavily favour Biden, while E-day voting will favour Trump. Therefore, Trump will declare victory on E-day when he is ahead on the provisional count, then lodge legal challenges to counting the postal ballots.
If Biden had won Florida, this strategy would not have been very plausible, but now it's going to come down to postal ballots in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. Gonna be a messy few days.
Fox calls Arizona for Biden, finally some good news
Arizona was John McCain's state which had an impact on the Democrat vote after Trump's cowardly comments about how he likes his war heroes who hadn't been prisoners of war.
VA turning blue, the % changes can be quite large no 0.1% drift, 5% wallop!
Woke up naturally at 3am, disappointed Biden hasn’t been able to smash Trump, means there going to be chaotic scenes over the next few days.
VA turning blue, the % changes can be quite large no 0.1% drift, 5% wallop!
Yep. Probably see the same pattern in Pa, Wi, Mi as postal ballots are counted.
Same here, was hoping to see a big lead for Biden but it's so close it is properly scaring me. No hope of going back to sleep now!
As it stands, Biden needs to win Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He can win without Pennsylvania. Trump pretty much has to win Pennsylvania to have any real hope.
Trump wins Ohio.
I currently have no clue who’s winning really but have a gnawing feeling in the pit of my stomach. This isn’t relaxing viewing at all.
North Carolina not looking good either.
I think it gets more relaxing as the ABV of your beverage increases.
*hunts for absinthe*
FFS! Disappointing that Trump is doing so well. After four years of that **** why isn't it 100% Biden? American's what's wrong with you?
I don't think it's that surprising. As outsiders, America First is anathema to us. Probably quite appealing if you're American though.
it's how a 2nd brexit ref would have panned out..... you get entrenchment where nothing moves.
It's shocking how crude and misguided people can be. The only cheery thing on here is the thought of that medoc. Given freedom to travel, the US is the last place I'd be thinking of.
Biden making statement at 5.30.
Reckon he'll deflect Trump's statement, which will be calling victory if he wins Wisconsin.
Ok I'm slightly confused.
The Guardian has the current count at 223:136 favouring Biden whereas the BBC has it 205:136 so that should be a pretty big win for Biden on the college front. I know the popular vote is close with 1.5m difference in favour of Biden so surely it all points at Biden getting it but nowhere near the landslide we all hoped for.
Might be that I'm still waking up but how can Trump overturn those kinds of figures?
Ignore that, figured it out. Their system really is messed up!
The official count is never released on the day / night. But if it’s ‘obvious’ that a candidate will win a state, the media will call it. Each media place can decide their threshold for ‘obvious’.
CNN famously called Florida wrong in 2000 and so now the media is more reluctant to call for states. That’s compounded massively this year by the postal vote situation / ‘Red Mirage’ so really it isn’t over until it’s over.
Just woke up with the News quoting too close to call.
Is it really? Could Trump really stay in?
It really is a system set up to be abused by someone like Trump, to call things early, set up doubts and misinformation so that they can make legal challenges etc. Biden's right in that they need to wait for every vote to be counted officially but by then Tinkerbell will have had time to sow seeds of doubt, play dirty tricks and throw his toys out if the pram!
I think there is one definite now perhaps?
With no overwhelming win for either side there is likely to be another 4 years of increasingly nasty division/ probable large scale civil unrest.
Right, off to kip.
Fingers crossed for Biden.