I agree Kelvin, even though the world has gone mad that is going to play very well with a lot of people I think.
People still underestimate how ******* good he is at this stuff. That is pure attention grabbing, smile inducing, hope filled, bombastic, voter engaging gold
He's extremely good at mobilizing people who already like him. Problem is, that stuff alienates everyone else (the dancing is silly fun, but the most of his act is pretty offensive). Educated women have fled and everything he does seems designed to repel them. So, yes, he is good at this stuff, but this stuff is the problem, not the solution.
Hopefully it's way too late anyway... but at this stage he only has "mobilising his people" to do... most other people have voted already, haven’t they?
Slightly concerned that the odds on Trump have been shortening slightly over the last few hours.. The best odds on him were at 2.89 yesterday, now down to 2.65.. Biden has gone from 1.45 to 1.62.. hoping this is due to the money staked, and not voting/polling data..
Let be honest, it's 2020, Trump will win as no good things are likely to happen this year!
Slightly concerned that the odds on Trump have been shortening slightly over the last few hours
Betting odds don't mean anything. National polls show Biden with a massive lead overall. Polls are never exactly right, but they would have to be about 5 points off for Trump to scrape out a narrow victory. It's not impossible for Trump to win, but he would need everything to go his way. A Biden landslide is as likely as a narrow Trump victory.
I hope Trump wins as Biden is NO good to the world.
If Biden wins then those who have voted or supported him deserve all the misery that comes with Biden. This guy is incompetent and this guy is a danger.
Resident troll will troll.
You make a strong and coherent case, as always. Full of love.
A Biden landslide is as likely as a narrow Trump victory.
Are you saying that both are likely to win? If it is landslide then how can Trump have a narrow victory?
I can predict 50-50 all day long.
You make a strong and coherent case, as always. Full of love.
Vote as you wish. If you can't make up you mind then you are lost.
Anyone up for building a new killfile? I'd be delighted to donate to a foodbank chosen by the first person to post a link to Killfile 2.
Somebody’s taken a break from masturbating over pictures of Glocks.
Let's change the subject, trolls sustain themselves on the attention garnered.
This US Election is going to be very difficult to predict but I can guess many people losing their money in bets.
Are you saying that both are likely to win? If it is landslide then how can Trump have a narrow victory?
Er yeah, er no, er yeah, er maybe.
Ah, chewkw - we've missed your insights.
Bye bye, off you go.
Remember the scene in Robocop when the former mayor takes the newly elected mayor hostage and demands a recount?
Am expecting that.
Are you saying that both are likely to win? If it is landslide then how can Trump have a narrow victory?
There are a range of possibilities, but some are more likely than others. The most likely outcome is a comfortable win for Biden. A less likely outcome is a huge landslide for Biden. Another lower probability outcome is a narrow victory for Trump.
Therefore, a Biden landslide is as likely as a narrow Trump victory, but a comfortable Biden victory is much more likely than either of those more extreme possibilities.
Slightly concerned that the odds on Trump have been shortening slightly over the last few hours.. The best odds on him were at 2.89 yesterday, now down to 2.65.. Biden has gone from 1.45 to 1.62.. hoping this is due to the money staked, and not voting/polling data..
Yeah, most Polls suggest that Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote and even considering a conservative margin of error Biden is far, far more likely to win. The last few days don't matter as much in this election, as 2/3rds of votes are already cast.
The, well mostly, non-partisan (in regards to the US anyway) UK press will want to at least create some drama to keep us watching, but if it wasn't for the 2016 shock result, they only be talking about the scale of Biden win at this point.
If/when Biden wins, and I'm not as confident as I might sound, the Democrats and Americans will have to ask themselves a couple of big, important questions.
1) Would Trump have lost if it wasn't for Covid? If Biden doesn't win a landslide, I think they've got to ask themselves if they were 'lucky' Covid came
2) If it was Covid that ended his Presidency and not all the other many, many issues, is this really the turning point for post-shame politics. 4 years isn't a long time and they won't be fighting with a sitting President, they'll be likely be trying to sell a Black, Female President who will have been VP during some hard economic and healthcare times. Will Trump come back for another go? He'll be 78, but Biden is 77 now, or will they find Trump 2?
Er yeah, er no, er yeah, er maybe.
Yes, tell me the difference between a landslide and a narrow win? How can someone predict a landslide unless there is some form of indications? If a narrow win for both then that is much more logical.
So explain to me how you predict a landslide. I predict 50-50 and tell me if I am wrong.
Ah, chewkw – we’ve missed your insights.
Bye bye, off you go.
My insight is a narrow win for one candidate which I hope is Trump, but as it is 50-50 it can go either way. Whoever wins will have a rough presidential ride for few years. That's why I say Biden is not a very bright person wanting to become President during the pandemic or possible world economic downturn. Getting Biden to turn the world economy around then good luck to you as you will find out if he is in power.
There are a range of possibilities, but some are more likely than others. The most likely outcome is a comfortable win for Biden. A less likely outcome is a huge landslide for Biden. Another lower probability outcome is a narrow victory for Trump.
Therefore, a Biden landslide is as likely as a narrow Trump victory, but a comfortable Biden victory is much more likely than either of those more extreme possibilities.
Based on your possibilities above Biden is going to win so why not just say Biden is going to win?
If there is a possibility of Trump winning then all the prediction about Biden winning does not make sense. It sounds like the possibilities of both winning or losing.
I Want Trump to win.
I do not want Biden to win.
The possibility is 50-50 regardless of polls.
Whoever wins I accept but be prepared for roller-coaster ride as the world will take few years to recover from the pandemic.
Remember the scene in Robocop
Quality!
Biden is NO good to the world.
“Don’t feed the Trolls” notwithstanding, I like to hear some actual reasons behind your hyperbole
Quality!
The adverts in Robocop are gold as well, I'd forgotten about that game. I honestly thought a YouTube ad was kicking in!
I'm expecting a day filled with rage and angst.
Hermes are delivering a pair of trail running shoes between 2pm - 4pm today.
...I like to hear some actual reasons behind your hyperbole
Non-sequitur incoming in five...four...three...
This is a polling map showing toss-up states in bronze. That's where the two candidates are within about 3 points, which is a typical polling margin of error. In other words, it would be unsurprising if either candidate won any one of those states. The most likely thing is that Trump will win some of those states and Biden will win some.
Howevever, Biden does not need to win any of those bronze states if he wins all the states that are leaning his way. Trump has to win every single toss-up state, plus at least one state that is leaning towards Biden. Not impossible, but not particularly likely. It would require the polls to be systematically wrong by about 5 points or more across multiple states. That possibility is why Trump has a about a 10% chance of victory.
It's also possible that the polls are biased towards Trump, in which case Biden might win all those toss-up states. That would be a landslide victory. That's a remote possibility, but it's about as likely as Trump winning a narrow victory.
What's much more likely is that Biden wins some toss-up states and Trump wins some. That would give Biden a comfortable victory.
I work with someone in Massachusetts, they went to vote at 6:30am and the queue was over a mile long despite the fact that it's below freezing there!
(Back to the Robocop scene), you can still buy a Blaupunkt car stereo that the hostage negotiator threw in to sweeten the deal. Mega!
https://www.blaupunkt.com/en/nc/products/car-multimedia/car-radio/
@thols2 map is great.
I think (where is it from?) that it understates the importance of PA though. If not statistically in the long run, then certainly in terms of its contribution to how we'll experience things tonight and when the election result will definitively emerge.
Better to think of PA as a toss-up / bronze, where as it happens early numbers will seem to favour the republicans and then there will be days (weeks?) of slow narrowing until a final result either way emerges.
That puts Biden just short of 270. So for him to win tonight (or even in the next week or so) the bronze states are where the action is, and where attention will be in the early hours...
(similarly, it wouldn't be that surprising to see at least one other "leans Biden" state on this map called for Trump tonight - prob in the mid-west - putting even more focus on the bronzes....
What’s much more likely is that Biden wins some toss-up states and Trump wins some. That would give Biden a comfortable victory.
In that case Biden will win as that odds are stacked against Trump.
Whoever wins does not matter now as he will become the Pandemic President with no smooth ride for his term in office in the next few years.
If Biden wins he will become a one term President and possibly prolong the economic downturn. Not good for USA or even the world.
This is a polling map showing toss-up states in bronze.
So overnight then, Florida, Texas, Ohio usually are pretty early with results. If Trump loses any of those that's an early indication it's going Biden's way?
Not good for USA or even the world.
I can't imagine how Biden could implement a more dysfunctional administration. Some family there are currently jobless with a six-figure medical debt under Trump, with no help forthcoming from anywhere.
So overnight then, Florida, Texas, Ohio usually are pretty early with results. If Trump loses any of those that’s an early indication it’s going Biden’s way?
If Trump loses Texas or Florida he might as well concede, he wont', but he might as well.
I found the source (it's written on it, well done me). I'l start the evening with this alternative version in mind.
Whoever wins does not matter now as he will become the Pandemic President with no smooth ride for his term in office for the next few years.
Not true - They'll inherit a vaccine and a solution in January-March. Just like Trump inherited Obama's economic recovery, healthcare plan, trade deals, veteran support and tried to build upon it and say it was all his doing.
I can’t imagine how Biden could implement a more disfunctional administration
The question is no longer how dysfunctional they are but whether he has the guts to do things so drastically different to get the economy turning for good.
Some family there are currently jobless with a six-figure medical debt under Trump, with no help forthcoming from anywhere.
Trump is just about to turn that around but let see if Biden can perform the magic. Like I say if he wins he is one term president.
Not true – They’ll inherit a vaccine and a solution in January-March.
That is a strong assumption about finding vaccine.
Not true – They’ll inherit a vaccine and a solution in January-March.
That is a strong assumption about finding vaccine.
The US President says it's coming any day now, so I think we're good on that.
The US President says it’s coming any day now, so I think we’re good on that.
Until they have successfully showed that the vaccine works no claims can be believed.
Just noticed that CNN (and prob others) have removed their paywalls for their apps so you can stream live.
Until they have successfully showed that the vaccine works no claims can be believed.
Including this one?
Trump is just about to turn that around
Is chewkw always this insightful? It's like a troll thats running out of batteries
The US President says it’s coming any day now, so I think we’re good on that.
Along with a Health Plan, Mexico Wall, North Korean Peace Deal, Economic Recovery...
hes rattled
Until they have successfully showed that the vaccine works no claims can be believed.
I R O N Y O V E R L O A D
Until they have successfully showed that the vaccine works no claims can be believed.
Hang about..are you saying trump may be lying?
(Back to the Robocop scene), you can still buy a Blaupunkt car stereo that the hostage negotiator threw in to sweeten the deal. Mega!
Was going to mention the same, they were very desirable back in the 90's.
I was dragged around B&M by my wife the other day and noticed they have a range of Blaupunkt branded kettles, toasters etc. I spent the rest of the trip telling myself that if I let the mayor go I'd even throw in a Blaupunkt.
That is all, back to the election.....
That is a strong assumption about finding vaccine.
AstraZeneca and Fauci were saying that March is likely. China and Russia already have vaccines in use with a claimed effectiveness of between 60 and 70%. They're still in phase 3, but are accessible to the public.
The question is no longer how dysfunctional they are but whether he has the guts to do things so drastically different to get the economy turning for good.
That would depend on winning the Senate too, as with a split house, any president is basically a lame duck.
What trump has done, is opened up insolvent and environmentally damaging industries to create some short term jobs in things like coal mining and fracking. Just smoke and mirrors, nothing sustainable.
Hang about..are you saying trump may be lying?
It is not about what they authority says but rather if people/I trust their assumption.
Many (some foreign news) have claimed that China has found the vaccine but do you trust them and similarly do you trust that what the USA says?
That would depend on winning the Senate too, as with a split house, any president is basically a lame duck.
That's also one reason that any new president is only going to rough ride during this period, but I guess Biden wants it before he is "too" old to become one.
What trump has done, is opened up insolvent and environmentally damaging industries to create some short term jobs in things like coal mining and fracking. Just smoke and mirrors, nothing sustainable.
His focus is to strengthen the economy and deal with the rest later.
Many (some foreign news) have claimed that China has found the vaccine
I enrolled in the vaccine trial in May and had a dose of what was either meningitis or sars-cov2 vaccine in June. No one has found a vaccine, vaccine has been developed using presumably standard vaccine development techniques. We will know in about another 6 months whether the vaccine is effective (or more accurately, how effective it is) and how safe it is, whether booster doses will be needed for prolonged immunity etc etc.
How any politician in any country thinks they can take credit for this is laughable. It’s happened because science, and despite trump bojo and all the other antiscience idiots who have some how got voted into office.
Many (some foreign news) have claimed...
Because it's you, and because you've actually started talking like Trump: citation required.
...that China has found the vaccine but do you trust them and similarly do you trust that what the USA says?
No, I don't trust the Chinese government on this, because their regime is very secretive, and such information is closely guarded. However, they have a hugely powerful biotech industry so I can certainly believe they have made good progress with a vaccine.
Do I believe American establishments like the CDC, JAMA, NEJM, Fauci (and others like WHO / SAGE etc)? Yes, of course. Their whole life's work is to deal with this sort of thing. They're experts in their field so of course I'd listen to what they have to say. Do I believe the charlatan in the White House? No, of course not. He's a powerful man for sure, he has his hands on the levers of the USA. But at this stage does anyone believe he has insight into anything?
Well I suppose China will be first with the vaccine... after all they manufactured this virus, no?🤔😉
Whoever wins will have a rough presidential ride for few years.
True enough
That’s why I say Biden is not a very bright person wanting to become President during the pandemic or possible world economic downturn.
Time isn't on Biden's side - I don't think he can afford to wait until 2024 even if he wanted to. For someone that's spent their life as a politician I'm guessing he'd prefer to be a President during troubled times than go to the grave having only even been VP
Getting Biden to turn the world economy around then good luck to you as you will find out if he is in power.
It remains to be seen how, in 2024, people will attribute blame for much of the pandemic fallout. If the Dems can control both Houses for 4 years and get quite a bit done they can probably do a good job of of separating pandemic pain caused by Trump incompetence/politicisation and that caused in general by global economic downturn etc. I'm sure they'll be able to say "it would have been so much worse without Biden's leadership, just look what happened with the UK and Boris running things...".
Possibly Biden might seek a second term (assuming he even gets a first one) but that's a long way off being something to be concerned about, even if you're Joe Biden.
That would depend on winning the Senate too, as with a split house, any president is basically a lame duck.
Not really. President s have executive order power which is surprisingly broad.
The Senate and Congress need 2/3 majorities to overturn a presidential veto so a majority in one or both is fine as long as it isn't a 2/3rds majority. That's hard to achieve because only 1/3 of congress is elected in any given cycle. Where gridlock happens is when the Senate and Congress have different majorities.
Are the bookies on the money about this sort of thing?
They are on the money but, especially by this point in the game they’ve left probability behind.
In regards to Vaccines, and this is probably the wrong thread, but Covid thread has gotten a bit feral.
A vaccine does exist, it does produce an immune response in both old and young adults. The vaccine also triggers lower adverse responses among the elderly.
MHRA (who govern new drugs in the UK) have recently started an accelerated review of the AstraZeneca vaccine using live data from their phase 3 trials which are likely to conclude within weeks.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccin-idUSKBN27H1BD
Based on recent findings in regards to antibodies and T-cells, I'd guess the vaccine will likely be effective for around 6 months, so it's likely to be a annual vaccination as we do now with flu.
I'd say it probably won't be enough to eradicate it, although it might well contribute to eradication if indeed that ever happens.
Bringing this back to The US Election, Pfizer who are trying to produce the US's front running vaccine at the moment, are also in Phase 3, a few weeks behind the UK. They have stated that they won't be ready to apply for FDA approval until the 3rd week of November, many have said that this was a move to discredit Trump, asking for FDA approval will be massive news and a major stepping stone towards ending the Covid crisis, and holding off until after the election would obviously hurt Trump who'd been promising a Vaccine for months, but I think the truth is more down to earth, they're "moving at the speed of science" and with 900+ American's dying every day and rising , delaying even 3 weeks to snub Trump would potentially cost 20k+ lives.
Source:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla
This guy's worth a squiz:
Wisdom of the crowds...
I dont bet, but have put £10 on trump...I don't want him to win, but if he does, there's something to cheer me up slightly.
@stwhannah - there was one blog I read and a guy who did a podcast which were fairly non-rabid. I'll see if I can find them again.
According to this, there aren't many left.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-there-are-so-few-moderate-republicans-left/
I think to some degree you've answered your own question. Older rich white dudes used to vote republican because they were the party of small govt (i.e. free choice ) and low taxes, so they still do. Appeals for obvious reasons. Free market idealogues ditto. Anti socialist ditto. It goes on. They don't really care that Trump is supported by poor white dudes because they think he's going to cut off all the rich white dudes from the gov't money they've been getting in shady ways. He's a republican in name. There are only 2 parties so it's a forced choice. You live with what you don't like about the party because if what you do. You'd rather have your lot in charge than the others. Some of that you can attribute to the history of the US, from the revolution (freedom from and fear of tyranny - democrats believe in bigger govt which is moving closer to tyranny). States rights, etc etc. It's a deep rabbit hole. It's also largely BS. Republican Presidents, Congress and Senate have raised taxes, expanded govt etc almost as much as Democrats. The system is so bent and built around horsemtrading that ideology is more an idea than a reality.
Interesting that there are a lot of moderate republicans for Biden. Goes back to the article I linked
sums it up quite well
@thols2 thanks for the podcast recommendation - but I guess they're the ones that see what I see!
@chromolyolly I get the self interest, but there comes a point where even the guy saying 'I'll make you rich' becomes so objectionable that surely the greater good kicks in? The assault on democracy and decency is astounding.
I hope like hell that Biden gets this. But if he does, what happens until inauguration in January? What's to stop Trump throwing a tantrum?
And, what about all Trump's facilitators? Will there be some kind of national shame introspection on what they let happen, or will it all be drawing battle lines for the next election?
Scary times.
Scary times.
Indeed. But add in the fact that if Joe wins our post Brexit US trade deal gets a lot harder to sort and it gets even more scary.
Biden's said his major goals are to restore international relations, re-sign to the Paris treaty and pursue alternatives to fossil fuels.
That's good enough for me.
ly I get the self interest, but there comes a point where even the guy saying ‘I’ll make you rich’ becomes so objectionable that surely the greater good kicks in
Trump is a symptom, not the problem. If you go back before him, as far as republicans were concerned the greater good was the broad republican values of smaller government, lower taxes, more choice, less socialism. The details were not as important. So as long as in theory that was happening, they could overlook a lot (think fake WMDs, trickle down economics etc etc.).
The change in republican voters means no one really knows what the greater good they stand for is anymore, including them.
And, what about all Trump’s facilitators? Will there be some kind of national shame introspection on what they let happen, or will it all be drawing battle lines for the next election?
Both? Lynsey Graham (he of the we shouldn't elect a supreme court judge in a presidents last year and you can quote me on that - what? Don't know what you are talking about) is getting killed in fundraising by his dem opponent. He is literally begging for money. Hopefully that translates to a big loss in the election. Guys like Ted Cruz will hang around like a bad smell and lead the revolution against socialism.
And, what about all Trump’s facilitators? Will there be some kind of national shame introspection on what they let happen, or will it all be drawing battle lines for the next election?
Not a chance IMHO. The Reps are doubling down on the ‘unfair election’ nonsense. Inwardly I think they will realise that Trump was a bad move, but only because he’s uneducated, crass and unhinged. He can’t play the GOP puppet role they needed because he’s slightly too far gone for them. Crucially NOT because they disagree with his main policies.
If they do lose this evening, they’ll absolutely be back with a more polished version of the same fake-news-spewing, internet-troll-luring thing in 4 years.
The GOP won't retreat from Trumpism if Trump loses, according to this
I think you have to remember in the US the economy doing well is so important because without jobs and pension plans doing well people are totally screwed. Being scared of destitution is pretty powerful, and Trump gave the economy a shot in the arm by allowing drilling in national parks and removing environmental regulations etc and claimed he would bring back manufacturing jobs.
Obviously some might suggest you could create a proper safety net and free healthcare so people aren't so terrified, but that would be unamerican!
Just read this via the Lincoln Project: https://thebulwark.com/to-my-fellow-george-w-bush-supporters/
This is the kind of moral introspection I’d like to see more of. Not that I’d argue that GWB was a saint, and what might the world have looked like if Gore had taken office, but at least GWB was on a different scale to Trump.
Do I believe American establishments like the CDC, JAMA, NEJM, Fauci (and others like WHO / SAGE etc)? Yes, of course. Their whole life’s work is to deal with this sort of thing. They’re experts in their field so of course I’d listen to what they have to say. Do I believe the charlatan in the White House? No, of course not. He’s a powerful man for sure, he has his hands on the levers of the USA. But at this stage does anyone believe he has insight into anything?
Couldn't have put it better myself. I would add some opinionated gumpf about Trump supporters being idiots who watch Fox, never read alternative views, believe in QAnon, never went to school yet alone college and own too many firearms than should be allowed for their incredibly low level of intelligence.
But I won't say that as I'll get flamed. I despair.
Long live China. I say that so that they don't hunt me down when they become the new superpower.
Trump has offered them so much opportunity and should he stay in power then I welcome the rise of the Cybermen Chinese.
The Lincoln Project are an interesting bunch. Republicans who hate Trump. I think they think that if they get rid of Trump they can have their party back. A lot of them are former advisors to the party and or presidents.
I don't think the party as they remember it is ever coming back. So they are going to be outsiders for a long time.
On the bright side, if Trump wins we won't be troubled by American elections any more.
YOUNG MAN, there’s no need to feel down!” Never underestimate this ****. Let’s hope Trump loses properly this month.
This.
Trump has offered them so much opportunity and should he stay in power then I welcome the rise of the
CybermenChinese.
😆 you mean drones? They don't have Cybermen there.
First test is to eat stewed chicken feet and boiled pig offals, both of which are delicacies, then report back if you can handle that.
I've voted. Hopefully Colorado is blue today.
The Lincoln Project are an interesting bunch
Whilst their current work is entertaining they really are part of the problem. They spent years practicing the partisan warfare and attack ads setting the scene for Trump only to complain once he took it one step further.
Without them I doubt he would have got in place.
The Lincoln Project guys didn't have a lot to do with the rise of populism, which is largely behind Trump
They do play fast and dirty though. A guy vaguely connected to them was asked about the Supreme Court. He said the Dems still don't get it. If it were the other way round, they would pack the court with as many of the youngest judges they could get away with. Biden said he'd study the issue.
Daffy
Full MemberNot true – They’ll inherit a vaccine and a solution in January-March. Just like Trump inherited Obama’s economic recovery, healthcare plan, trade deals, veteran support and tried to build upon it and say it was all his doing.
Eh, that's really not the case. Even if a vaccine does arrive, it's not something that the next president inherits from this one, because that implies that the current one has had a hand in making it happen. All the other things you listed were genuine products of the Obama presidency, but a covid vaccine assuming it arrives won't be a product of Trump, it'll be something that largely happened at the same time as him.
All the other things you listed were genuine products of the Obama presidency, but a covid vaccine assuming it arrives won’t be a product of Trump, it’ll be something that largely happened at the same time as him.
Too true. Despite, not because of!
In truth, if/when they do have a credible vaccine, it'll be because 'The Scientists' resisted his apparatchiks' attempts to get them to fast track something not yet fully developed, let alone fully tested.
Worth bearing in mind that the potential vaccines that are currently being talked about seem to be 70-80% effective (not to mention for approx 6 months). If vaccine take up is 50% (which seems to be a number touted in the US), then 70% of 50% means approx 1/3 population immune. Which isn't close to being enough.
All the more reason to vote the doubt sowing, wig wearing, honey monster out of office!
But add in the fact that if Joe wins our post Brexit US trade deal gets a lot harder to sort
I don't think that's necessarily the case. He will be keen for us to maintain a sensible trading link with the EU which might knock some sense into the pea brains we have running the show.