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From Fivethirtyeight.com:
Looks like votes from Brown and Kenosha counties have been added to the tallies in Wisconsin, and Biden’s lead over Trump is now at 0.6 percentage points, based on about a 21,000-vote margin, according to ABC News. Overall, 92 percent of the expected vote is in, but those were the two major places where we were still waiting on a big chunk of votes to be reported.
Is it possible that the only thing that will stop Trump running, and winning, in 2024 is the chance that he may be in prison by then?
I suppose one small crumb of comfort is that if he does win this time, he can't run again.
he
can’tshouldn't run again
The courts could be busy.
By my maths, if each of them wins each state in which they're currently ahead you end up with Biden on 255 and Trump on 283. So a Biden win relies on the different leanings of people who vote by post or voted in places that are slow at counting.
I agree with dazh that this isn't the thumping defeat that it should have been. That's probably down to a combination of things, not least the entrenched tribalism of US politics where people are blindly republican or democrat (not that we're much better).
My worry is that we see a scraped win for Biden and the Democrat party breathes a sigh of relief, settles in for 4 years in charge and never wonders why, after 8 years of a Democrat president, half of the country was willing to vote to Trump. Because after this term we'll be back in that situation and a lacklustre Dem candidate will lose to another Republican lunatic.
Is it possible that the only thing that will stop Trump running, and winning, in 2024 is the chance that he may be in prison by then?
I was accused of being a terrible person when I wished him ill as he flirted with Caroni a few weeks back - bet you all wish I'd had my way now don't you!
In 4 years mother nature might well have had it's wicked way with him. And Biden too come to that.
In 4 years mother nature might well have had it’s wicked way with
himus.
The difference between the two old men on climate change makes this election one that could permanently, irretrievably, make things worse for all of us.
Philly and Pittsburgh could swing Pennsylvania?
Yes Biden is currently ~600K votes down, but they've still got over 1 million left to count apparently (~25%) That's would be 20 College votes...
The reason Trump wants counting stopped, is because it's assumed that Urban Dems disproportionately voted by post and in a lot of places these are being counted last...
Biden was chosen entirely on his appeal to Trumps base/swing voters. Old, White, Male etc.
And meanwhile lost to every other demographic.
https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1323825846365396992?s=20
Just put 60 quid on trump at 3-1. If I win I'll spend my cash on beers to cheer me up
"If a South American country behaved like the US, the CIA would be looking to destabilise it and move in their own puppet leader"
Sure - but has that not already happened? If you buy that the Russians disrupted the last election to install Trump and destabilise an enemy power.
I suppose one small crumb of comfort is that if he does win this time, he can’t run again.
At this point I wouldn't even take that for granted.
I’m just waiting for Kanye to declare a resounding victory.
I suppose one small crumb of comfort is that if he does win this time, he can’t run again.
They could always try to repeal the 22nd amendment which after all is relatively new or have him do a Putin next time round run as VP and then have the president resign and hand over power (its not clear whether that is blocked by the 22nd amendment or not).
More likely though it will be for one of his kids to carry on.
I was accused of being a terrible person when I wished him ill as he flirted with Caroni a few weeks back – bet you all wish I’d had my way now don’t you!
Tbf you wished him dead after a prolonged period of suffering and pain. The second bit was the issue most folk had with it..
But certainly we'd all be better off now if he'd shuffled of this mortal coil..I'd change my mind if he loses as I still want to see him in chains..
Just like the Neanderthal 40k years ago we are being swept off the plains by the new species of Homo Sociapath.
I’m not joking either
People have been saying that same thing for centuries!
Struggling to follow today. Crap signal. 😕
Any good news?
People have been saying that same thing for centuries!
...but none of those people were Neanderthals.
Makes you think.
Any good news?
Aye, Rentons getting an ebike.
Any good news?
Biden still favourite - just nowhere near as much as on Monday.
Wisconsin either way will be close enough to allow a candidate to have a recount.
😳 Was the other way around, and he bet on him to win.
Shite 🙁 I was happy there for a bit 🙁
By my maths, if each of them wins each state in which they’re currently ahead you end up with Biden on 255 and Trump on 283.
I'm trying to follow the New York Times site, at the same time as working.
They've got Biden 227 - Trump 213.
Biden to, sort of confidently take Nevada (6) Arizona (11) Wisconsin (10).
Trump to take equally sort of confidentially take Georgia (16) N. Carolina (15) Pennsylania (20)
So... Biden 254 and Trump 264.
Alaska is a Republican heartland, that's 3 more.
254 to 267
Michigan are the king makers. On my screen it's 2.40m votes to Trump, 2.38, to Biden with 14% of votes left to be counted and as it's usually the urban areas and postal votes last to be be counted, it's ****ing close.
Squeaky bum time.
Any good news?
If it's close Biden has it. After all...
“We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics” Joe Biden
This is how the map is looking now. Biden looks like a solid favourite to take Wi and Mi. Biden has a decent chance at also getting Pa and Ga. It's not impossible for Trump to win, but he'd need to win Mi, Pa, Ga, and NC.
If Trump does win who the hell will take polls seriously ever again?
There's about 700k votes left to be counted in Michigan, Biden needs 27.5k of them more than Trump to win because unless there's a surprise in any of the states with more than 90% of votes counted, both need Mich to win.
Unless, Pennsylvania shocks, Biden is 600k votes behind with 1.2m votes left to be counted... it would be a hell of a change in course though.
The other worry for Biden, Nevada and Arizona are currently 'his' but they've only counted about 85% of the votes in each. Whereas North Carolina and Georgia are pretty much nailed on for Trump
“We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics” Joe Biden
Spot the Trump supporter.
Biden looks like a solid favourite to take Wi and Mi
Really? He's behind in Michigan.
Spot the Trump supporter.
£100 on Agent Orange!
There’s about 700k votes left to be counted in Michigan, Biden needs 27.5k of them more than Trump to win because unless there’s a surprise in any of the states with more than 90% of votes counted, both need Mich to win.
wayne county (detroit) has only counted 64% @ 414,169 v 194,570 so if that carries on 2:1 it should see Joe over the line in Michigan.
The other worry for Biden, Nevada and Arizona are currently ‘his’ but they’ve only counted about 85% of the votes in each.
The remaining ballots are (I think) postal ballots, which are heavily in favour of Biden.
Unless, Pennsylvania shocks, Biden is 600k votes behind with 1.2m votes left to be counted… it would be a hell of a change in course though.
As above, the remaining ballots are postal which are massively in Biden's favour. PA is still a toss-up.
£100 on Agent Orange!
To be fair, you were also betting on the GOP flipping the House, so it was a pretty ambitious bet.
Dems failing miserably to take the Senate means that we're just in for another four-year shitshow regardless of who wins the top job.
wayne county (detroit) has only counted 64% @ 414,169 v 194,570 so if that carries on 2:1 it should see Joe over the line in Michigan.
That's reassuring, It does seem to be the case whoever wins there, wins.
If Trump does win who the hell will take polls seriously ever again?
I think that ship sailed a while ago, even with Trumps likely defeat.
To be fair, you were also betting on the GOP flipping the House, so it was a pretty ambitious bet.
This is true. Trying to make it interesting. Could only get 2:1 on Trump winning. Not the fabled 50:1.
Pennsylvania shocks, Biden is 600k votes behind with 1.2m votes left to be counted
That would make it necessary for Biden to win more than 50% of the votes not yet counted. And according to the Guardian's map the counties not yet declared are either Biden or very strongly Biden.
still 27k in it in Michigan.
If Trump does win who the hell will take polls seriously ever again?
I think part of the recent jonathan pie thing was interesting when he said why would anyone come out at a Trump supporter when they know they would just get nailed on twitter, by some friends or family and the general more left leaning public. They say nothing and just vote in private.
if Michigan does turn blue, does biden demand a halt to the counts ?
That would make it necessary for Biden to win more than 50% of the votes not yet counted. And according to the Guardian’s map the counties not yet declared are either Biden or very strongly Biden.
Over 75%.
Of course. As soon as he's ahead, no further ballots are legitimate.
That would make it necessary for Biden to win more than 50% of the votes not yet counted.
More than 75% surely?
If he's 600k behind, of the 1.2m uncounted he needs to win 600k to draw level and then more than 50% of the remaining 600k, so more than 900 k out of the 1.2m
Really? He’s behind in Michigan.
He's behind (or has been behind) in a lot of states but that's partly down to geography with rural counties getting their votes counted before the urban ones. Once the latter come into the picture the gap narrows and/or Biden moves ahead of Trump. It's worked the other way as well.
Georgia is interesting as the main counties left to declare are clustered around Atlanta and are Democrat leaning so although Trump has a lead of around 100,000 votes there's still maybe 250,000 votes to be counted.
We tend to forget just how big some of these states are, often the size of England or even the UK, and they've just as disparate an electorate as you'd expect if looking at England - a bit like saying Cumbria has declared their count but we are waiting on Merseyside.
Pennsylvania is looking very much Republican at the moment, there's been little shift in the last couple of counties declaring but there's still 1.75m votes to count.