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down to 21k in michigan (no change in detroit count)
why would anyone come out at a Trump supporter when they know they would just get nailed on twitter, by some friends or family and the general more left leaning public. They say nothing and just vote in private.
Like our Secret Tory Voters?
If Trump does win who the hell will take polls seriously ever again?
Polls put Trump at about a 10% chance to win. If he squeaks out a narrow win, that would be consistent with the polls.
That 10% included a 70% chance that Biden would win Florida. Once Trump won Florida (which is not a surprising result), Trump's odds improved massively. Being ahead in NC also helped massively.
However, Biden looks fairly strong in WI and MI. Trump has to win one of those two to have any realistic chance. Trump is doing better than expected, but the results are still within what the polls said was possible.
15k
We tend to forget just how big some of these states are, often the size of England or even the UK,
Christ, some of them are as big as Texas!!
michigan's now blue
the recent jonathan pie thing was interesting when he said why would anyone come out at a Trump supporter
I completely agree that is a factor - but personally speaking I don't understand it. If I was so ashamed of my political choice that I felt I had to hide it and couldn't even anonymously admit it to a pollster, then I'd be taking a step back and wondering why that might be!
I completely agree that is a factor – but personally speaking I don’t understand it. If I was so ashamed of my political choice that I felt I had to hide it and couldn’t even anonymously admit it to a pollster, then I’d be taking a step back and wondering why that might be!
Not saying it's right, but happens a lot in life I reckon. People have their public persona, job etc. And then there's what they really think.
Yeah it's like when the weather says 10% chance of rain and when it rains (approx 1/10 of those times, averaged out over a long period) everyone says 'stupid weather forecasts'.
Apparently someone on ABC just claimed that America invented democracy. Clever buggers.
I completely agree that is a factor – but personally speaking I don’t understand it. If I was so ashamed of my political choice that I felt I had to hide it and couldn’t even anonymously admit it to a pollster, then I’d be taking a step back and wondering why that might be!
Dave Rudin's coverage of a Trump rally was great. He likened it to his first experiences of gay pride events. Everyone is having a great time and surrounded by people like them. Something they normally keep quiet about. Very funny.
Like our Secret Tory Voters?
The polling organisations over here factor in the 'shy Tory' vote and its a significant percentage. They do seem to have been seriously underestimating it though.
I think we're now in an an era where polling is little better than guesswork
They say nothing and just vote in private.
Don’t forget the legions of online misanthropic trolls playing and voting for teh memez and the upset.
he's looking home and hosed in Mich still 30% left to count from ol' detroit
And meanwhile lost to every other demographic.
Comparing 2016 & 2020 exit polls is pretty pointless. For obvious reasons. Just about all groups that chose to still vote in person this time, despite the pandemic, were more likely to vote Trump.
Christ, some of them are as big as Texas!!
lol!
Christ, some of them are as big as Texas!!
How many Wales's is that?
@ thols2
Whats your source of data?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538
michigan’s now blue
I've just watched it switch on my screen...
I'm feeling confident.
Well Confident Biden will be the leader when it goes to court.
How many Wales’s is that?
About half an Alaska
How many Wales’s is that?
~30
I think we’re now in an an era where polling is little better than guesswork
Yep, that's the way I see it. Utterly depressing that the orange buffoon is even in with a chance of winning.
Wisconsin looking close with 3% of votes left though, down to 21k votes with 97k left to be counted.
Confident Biden will be the leader when it goes to court.
Supreme courts tend to reject cases that have no merit. Trump is a bit over-optimistic about his chances.
Supreme courts tend to reject cases that have no merit. Trump is a bit over-optimistic about his chances.
I love the optimism.
Utterly depressing that the orange buffoon is even in with a chance of winning.
Tulsi Gabbard would have won a landslide. Pretty much anyone but Biden would. He's senile. He's corrupt. He's even on film being very inappropriate with children (repeatedly). Then there's his son. It's like they tried to lose.
Nevada are saying they're not going to release anymore numbers until noon tomorrow, about 18:00 our time I think.
If only Cuomo had stood...
In other news, dead man gets elected
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/524437-north-dakota-gop-state-lawmaker-who-died-of-covid-19-wins-election
Pretty much anyone but Biden would. He’s senile. He’s corrupt. He’s even on film being very inappropriate with children (repeatedly). Then there’s his son. It’s like they tried to lose.
Well I don't know how they managed to keep that out of the press. It's a good thing you're here to tell us this stuff.
Oooh, its like the final episode of a long running reality show 🙂
Well I don’t know how they managed to keep that out of the press. It’s a good thing you’re here to tell us this stuff.
Eh? That's been all that's been in the press. There's been scandal after scandal and endless senile disasters every time he was on stage.
Which one are we talking about, here?
I literally haven't seen any of what you refer to. At all. And I've been watching all sides of the reporting press
He’s even on film being very inappropriate with children (repeatedly).
There are bits of the internet which the rest of us stay well away from 5thElefant.
You inhabit some weird corners of the internet 5thElefant.
Biden is creepy because he's too tactile, but Trump saying he wants to **** his own daughter isn't. Ok cool.
Edit: ha, snap Kelvin!
He’s senile. He’s corrupt. He’s even on film being very inappropriate with children (repeatedly). Then there’s his son. It’s like they tried to lose.
Sounds like the perfect candidate to win over trump supporters
ha, snap Kelvin!
Probably a joke neither of us should have made really. Sorry 5thElefant!
Eh? That’s been all that’s been in the press. There’s been scandal after scandal and endless senile disasters every time he was on stage.
Thank god then that Donnies got all his mental faculties
Eh? That’s been all that’s been in the press. There’s been scandal after scandal and endless senile disasters every time he was on stage.
What you described is what Team Trump has been emailing day after day to its subscribers for months. I suggest it might not be true?
Probably a joke neither of us should have made really. Sorry 5thElefant!
I wasn't actually making a joke or calling him a you-know-what - I just think you'd have to hang around on 4chan/QAnon FB groups to get the impression that Joe Biden was the scandal-ridden one.
it seems likely that the republicans are going to retain control of the Senate, so even if Biden wins, he'll be hamstrung
Supreme courts tend to reject cases that have no merit. Trump is a bit over-optimistic about his chances.
I would love for Trump's case to be thrown out as unconstitutional and vexatious. 🤣
He’s even on film being very inappropriate with children (repeatedly).
Is this the one in the basement of the pizza restaurant?