Ordinarily you might say that after a defeat that heavy that it's not a leadership contest you would want to win, but Starmer's success with Labour challenges that to an extent, although I can't see Labour throwing it all away in a single Parliament (again, that is what we thought post 2019, so anything is possible). The Tories should stay in the centre ground but they will probably tack further right.
The Tories have nowhere to go. Labour were able to move to be a centre party to win the election. Reform turned up and took enough far-right fantasists to royally screw the Tories.
I fully expect the Tories to veer even further to the right. Either to win back their bigots from Reform or to merge with them. I wish them all the worst in their endeavours.
"The Tories should stay in the centre ground but they will probably tack further right."
Hmmm not so sure. They may well do of course but they know as well as we do that the far right racist pensioner vote is a dying breed and it wasn't nearly enough to work this time around already. Its been proven time and time again that when the UK feels like time for a change it wants the same thing but with a different name. Centre rightish with a bit of a 'we will look after the already well off because they have earned it unlike those workshy poor' etc. I mean just look at the recent so called Labour incumbents...
At the end of the day we ain't revolutionaries like the French swinging from monarchy to socialist to fascist and we aren't as mad and divided on religious grounds like the US. We are Brits and we like things as they should be which is a sensible government that looks after the slightly selfish and introverted hard working British people which obviously means the lucky and most Southerners.
I'm not saying Badenoch won't win btw - she strikes me as an adept chameleon that can change her spots overnight as she clearly has no actual principals. Patel, I'm not so sure about = she has more backstory which may be harder to shed.
Kemi Badenoch, the frontrunner to be the next Conservative party leader, has been accused of creating an intimidating atmosphere in the government department she used to run, with some colleagues describing it as toxic
Surprised, moi? <Miss Piggy Voice>
Hmmm not so sure. They may well do of course but they know as well as we do that the far right racist pensioner vote is a dying breed
we have an ageing population…
and it wasn’t nearly enough to work this time around already.
but the easy mistake to make is to think the way to win back reform voters is to be more like reform, it’s actually to be less like the post Cameron tories!
Its been proven time and time again that when the UK feels like time for a change it wants the same thing but with a different name. Centre rightish with a bit of a ‘we will look after the already well off because they have earned it unlike those workshy poor’ etc. I mean just look at the recent so called Labour incumbents…
yes but Labour got there from Milliband by first going via a more extreme stereotype of “core Labour” which appealed to the membership but no the voters.
At the end of the day we ain’t revolutionaries like the French swinging from monarchy to socialist to fascist and we aren’t as mad and divided on religious grounds like the US. We are Brits and we like things as they should be which is a sensible government that looks after the slightly selfish and introverted hard working British people which obviously means the lucky and most Southerners.
even on election night some commentators were saying the losers would probably head more towards their extremes and that was a mistake. Expect the snp may up the noise on Indy.
We have an ageing population true but the happy set of circumstances and conditions that turned a certain generation into the 'haves' , house prices far outstripping inflation, no university debt and defined benefit pensions have not been repeated. This means future generations growing older will not in my opinion in general have the same goals and outlook as the current batch over 60s
"yes but Labour got there from Milliband by first going via a more extreme stereotype of “core Labour” which appealed to the membership but no the voters."
I don't understand your point, how does this differ from me saying the UK voter doesn't like extremes?
And commentators (including and especially me!) can be very wrong.
“yes but Labour got there from Milliband by first going via a more extreme stereotype of “core Labour” which appealed to the membership but not the voters.”
I don’t understand your point, how does this differ from me saying the UK voter doesn’t like extremes?
I think you're both making the same point. This is a good read by Ian Dunt (always worth reading), making the point that the party membership selecting the leader, instead of MP's, gave the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (who as repellent to the wider electorate) and the Tory membership gave us Liz Truss as PM. The membership of parties is in no way representative of the general voter.
The truth that dare not speak its name
I can honestly see this Tory Leadership election giving us the leader of HM opposition Robert Jenrick. Badanoch has been nailed on favourite at 2/1 for about 18 months now, but as has already been pointed out, the Tories never end up with the favourite when it goes to the membership. Its going to be the middle-aged, chinless, pin-striped white bloke every time
