[Closed] So what would happen if we left europe?

andypaul99 - Member
would like to see the demographic of ukip voters, im really hoping they arent a majority of pensioners sitting at home reading the Daily Mail and looking to **** up the prospects for future generations...

POSTED 32 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

and then this was posted without irony?

ohnohesback - Member
We'd probably do very well freed of the shackles of the EU.

POSTED 29 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

If anything the anti-EU attitudes are spreading and hardening. By equivocating, Cameron and co may find themselves desperately trying, and failing to control the juggernaut they have set in motion.

I saw Obama suggested yesterday that perhaps the UK should leave the EU

Goes to google
I repeat my point about how the press are helping 😯

With respect to the relationship between the U.K. and the EU, we have a special relationship with the United Kingdom. And we believe that our capacity to partner with a United Kingdom that is active, robust, outward-looking and engaged with the world is hugely important to our own interests as well as the world. And I think the U.K.’s participation in the EU is an expression of its influence and its role in the world, as well as obviously a very important economic partnership.

Now, ultimately, the people of the U.K. have to make decisions for themselves. I will say this — that David’s basic point that you probably want to see if you can fix what’s broken in a very important relationship before you break it off makes some sense to me. And I know that David has been very active in seeking some reforms internal to the EU. Those are tough negotiations. You’ve got a lot of countries involved, I recognize that. But so long as we haven’t yet evaluated how successful those reforms will be, I at least would be interested in seeing whether or not those are successful before rendering a final judgment. Again, I want to emphasize these are issues for the people of the United Kingdom to make a decision about, not ours.

jambalaya obama was helping cameron by saying that he should renogotiate b4 thinking of quitting
he also said

"With respect to the relationship between the UK and the EU we have a special relationship with the United Kingdom. And we believe that our capacity to partner with a United Kingdom that is active, robust, outward-looking, and engaged with the world is hugely important to our own interests, as well as the world. And I think the UK's participation in the EU is an expression of its influence and its role in the world, as well as, obviously, a very important economic partnership."

My company sells a lot into Europe, it would make it a lot more difficult for us, and probably impact negatively on my livelihood. I think it's a very complex issue that needs to be decided by economists who fully understand it and a referendum would be a terrible idea and the general public does not really understand it (myself included).

I don't think that you are competent enough to choose the interior decoration in your house, therefore I will decide it for you.

ohnohesback - Member
So what you're advocating, DeadlyDarcy, is the abolition of democracy?

Yes, that's it. Exactly. Nail on ze 'ead.

😆

Jaysus wept.

needs to be decided by economists who fully understand it

TBH I would not trust their opinion or else GO would have got us out of this mess and in fact we would have avoided this mess in the first place, boom and bust would end and we would have permanent growth and low unemployment and the measures taken worldwide would have worked etc

Really would you actually trust the prediction of an economist - you may as well ask an astrologer for all their predictive power

I don't think that you are competent enough to choose the interior decoration in your house, therefore I will decide it for you.

The decoration of my house does not have rippling effects across everyone in the UK and the rest of the world.

Mine does. My taste really is [i]that[/i] bad!

So, European cooperation and integration has to be just about [i]economics[/i] does it?

Dunno, i'm much more concerned about this Independence fairytale.

If we stay in we will be forced to adopt 650b whether we like it or not. If we leave we will be free to choose to run 27.5 or walk.

I doubt if most politicians really understand what they mean by "leaving the EU". Its a lot more complicated than just in/out.

Are they suggesting we carefully unpick 40 years worth of legislation? Which bits do we keep and which bits do we throw out? Do we just keep it all unchanged?

My company sells a lot into Europe, it would make it a lot more difficult for us

Probably almost as difficult as it is for Swiss and Norwegian companies to sell stuff into the EU.

the general public does not really understand it (myself included).

It's OK, we already got that.

I don't know why you're so scathing about economists, JY. I'm sure some of them must have predicted the global credit crisis. Monkeys and shakespeare and all that.

So, European cooperation and integration has to be just about economics does it?

Feel free to suggest other reasons why we should stay or should go.

Feel free to suggest other reasons why we should stay or should go.

Coming from you of all people.

[i]So, European cooperation and integration has to be just about economics does it?

Feel free to suggest other reasons why we should stay or should go. [/i]

EU originally set up to prevent another war in Europe?

Just as economics was not the driving force for Europe, so it should not be the sole reason for leaving. Personally I wish the whole debate could be re-phrased to (1) what needs to be done to Europe to make it a success and (2) do we and others want whatever the answer(s) to (1)? Europe is far more of a social and political project born out of the horrors of European conflict than an economics one and there is part of the problem. It has been far more successful socially and arguably politically (with reservations) than it has been economically.

That is not to say that economics should be ignored. For it is the simple fact that ignorance of economics is causing the social and political unrest that will ultimate see the end of the current structure. Europe needs to be honest about these failings and open in constructive dialogue about what a future EU could and should look like. Sadly that is not happening and the debate is being polarised between in/out which ultimately will not serve us well IMO.

Cameron is kind of on the right track here but without the ultimate vision. There is too much party politics going on for that sadly.

The main driver for the EU was / is Germany's guilt over two World Wars and it's determination not to start another one. Obviously things have moved on a bit in more recent years, now we have the single currency etc.

aracer

both countries seem very expensive to live in, no experience of switzerland but norway is and very high taxed too, is taht teh trade off you want for leaving the EU

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/rankings_by_country.jsp

The main driver for the EU was / is Germany's guilt over two World Wars and it's determination not to start another one. Obviously things have moved on a bit in more recent years, now we have the single currency etc.

[i]So, European cooperation and integration has to be just about economics does it?[/i]
Feel free to suggest other reasons why we should stay or should go.

As an ex-pat in Spain I'd add free movement of people, for starters.

In an general sense I think it would make bugger all difference. We'd be a member of the EEA and have a negotiated trade/fishing/farming/freedom of movement/regulatory agreement that suits no-one and everyone. Passport control would still have a separate Q for EU/EEA members and people will come and go, laws of physics will remain constant (except time, of which people have more of in southern Europe).

The EU is not the be all and end all but trading with it is important.

Is it possible that being out of the EU but in the EEA would be better for trade overall? (genuine question)

[i]Obviously things have moved on a bit in more recent years, now we have the single currency etc. [/i]

I dunno, its very difficult to pick a fight with your neighbour when they own half your defence industry, your utilitiues and your transport infrastructure.

I dunno, its very difficult to pick a fight with your neighbour when they own half your defence industry, your utilitiues and your transport infrastructure.

Coming from you of all people.

You might think I should be banned because I don't agree with you, but what's that supposed to mean? 😕

as long as my house continues to increase in value I don't give a crap.
there, I've said it.
wanna make something of it?

[img] [/img]

Wouldn't we float away and eventually crash into Greenland..?
Are we insured for that..?

[i]Not really. International commerce continued during WW2 with Germany continuing to pay back loans to British banks[/i]

Slightly different. Todays situation is more like if Lanacaster Bombers were beign built by Krupps munitions works (they weren't were they?)

both countries seem very expensive to live in, no experience of switzerland but norway is and very high taxed too, is taht teh trade off you want for leaving the EU

Jeez - you did this before. You see Luxembourg, Denmark, Sweden up near the top of that list? Scroll down a few pages you'll find Macedonia, Moldova, Albania located a little below Romania. Do you really think there's a correlation between EU membership and cost of living? Why exactly would ours change if we left the EU?

Of course the cost of living is also totally unrelated to international trade relationships.

Probably almost as difficult as it is for Swiss and Norwegian companies to sell stuff into the EU.

Yeah, but why make it harder for yourself? I work in a industry with tight margins already, the extra overheads to cut through the red tape every time we exported to Europe would potentially make us have to raise our prices and become uncompetitive. Free trade within Europe is a legitimate argument for staying in Europe, not sure why you tried to make me sound like a idiot for stating it. 😕

except time, of which people have more of in southern Europe

Wish that were actually true 🙁

You might think I should be banned because I don't agree with you, but what's that supposed to mean?

😆

One assumes you have the link to that picture of the straw fella permanently on your clipboard so I'll let you post it.

You're denying you think I should be banned?

Free trade within Europe is a legitimate argument for staying in Europe

Not really it isn't. See Norway and Switzerland. Sadly most people appear to be ignorant of their trading position with Europe.

Oh lordy!! Its all going off!

[img] ?w=432[/img]

Probably almost as difficult as it is for Swiss and Norwegian companies to sell stuff into the EU.

It allows the EFTA-EEA states to participate in the EU's Internal Market without being members of the EU. They adopt almost all EU legislation related to the single market, except laws on agriculture and fisheries.

So we would still have time directive etc and various other compliance issues that we hate for being restrictive [ ie they reduce the ability of employers to exploit us] but this time with next to no say in them. I don’t think is what the sceptics are campaigning for tbh and would seem the worst of both worlds

We'd be a member of the EEA

That preety much sums it up the Unionists want to dictate to folk. We seem to think we can leave, dictate to them on our terms so we can have only the benefits and they will let us do this. I rather think they will be mightily pissed off at us for leaving and will tell us to do one – much like they are saying to Scotland if they leave.
I suppose it is possible we can have our cake and eat it but it is highly unlikely this will happen

I still find it funny that the very same people campaigning to save the union are campaigning to levae the union. In essence they like unions if they dictate the terms and not if they have to compromise. Is it a national trait ?

The trade argument is a little more complicated that generally presented and hardly a, "EU would stop trading with the UK if it left the EU" idea (or words to that effect).

The history of our balance of trade with Europe is sufficient to tell anyone that it would be foolhardy for Europeans to accept any form of trade obstacles between the UK and member states - Europeans export more goods to us than we export to them. There are many ways in which noses can be cut off to spite UK and European faces, but this is one of the more obvious and would be folly on all sides. Hence the raft of free trade agreements that have been and, most likely, will be drawn up to protect each party's interests.

So we would still have time directive etc and various other compliance issues that we hate for being restrictive

I don't think those are related to the single market, so I doubt that would be the case. Not that the working time directive is one I personally think we should get rid off, but there is an awful lot of other stuff we could. I accept your point about having to comply with rules we have no say in - at least this is something sensible to debate, unlike suggesting that suddenly we'd have loads of trade barriers, which is where the EU debate always seems to end up. THM has this one - it would be in nobodies interest for the UK not to be part of the EEA if it left the EU, if anything it would be worse for the EU than for us if we weren't. In much the same way as in reality UK rump wouldn't actually stop Scotland using the pound if it became independent.

I still find it funny that the very same people campaigning to save the union are campaigning to levae the union. In essence they like unions if they dictate the terms and not if they have to compromise. Is it a national trait ?

Is it just as ironic that those wanting to leave the union are wanting to stay in the union? Ditto.

Yes I am sure neither side would press the nuclear option but it is not like this issue is being rationally debated so they may make an emotive decision just like we might

No guarantee is my point but yes I would assume some sort of free trade area would exist but it may not simply be and off we go to the EEA

Europeans export more goods to us than we export to them

happy to see other trade figures
** a guess but either way much less a % hit than ours

if anything it would be worse for the EU than for us if we weren't

No guarantee is my point but yes I would assume some sort of free trade area would exist but it may not simply be and off we go to the EEA

In which case that's something to be negotiated and debated, rather than the tired old stuff about leaving definitely impacting our trade - see how many times that has been suggested on this thread (which includes all the stuff about Japanese companies moving out). If the answer is that we wouldn't have an EEA like trade agreement then the position is somewhat different and I agree that the disadvantages of leaving would likely outweigh the advantages, but that is extremely unlikely to be the case.

At the end of the day a lot of this stuff would be decided by civil servants and they tend to do rationality rather than emotion. Even politicians do more often than not manage to come up with workable compromises when their backs are against the wall. I very much doubt the EU would want to take any hit at all on their trade right now, or at any time in the forseeable future - in that respect we're in a somewhat stronger position than them!

I suspect we might not even be able to agree on this, but it is at least something rather more interesting to discuss than the usual EU lies and propaganda.

this is hubris rather than fact tbh

The point is JY, that there really are no facts as such. That's the whole point. Its all conjecture and guesswork. And wildly different guesses from one extreme to the other.

I think that's why all the main parties consistently shy away from the issue. It might go one way, might go the other. Nobody knows. Better the devil you know, and all that

As far as trade goes, I can't see them stopping us shipping Swindon-Made Hondas to the continent, as then they'd have to stop shipping BMW's to Basingstoke too. Or little Citreons to Stretford. I can't see that happening really. Can you?

The UK is merely a side show, but could be a catalyst for wider changes that scare the EU elite. The far more pressing issues are France and the PIIGS. If they are not sorted out, then the UK becomes even less of an issue as much as we (or at least our papers and politicians) may not like that fact.

This current debate is false for the simple reason is that future planning needs to be considered against the future structure of the EU not the current or historic one. If there is one certainty in this, it is that the status quo cannot endure - that is the only known in the world of unknowns.

aracer

[i]VAT is set by the member country

Well apart from the EU setting a minimum level that is.
[/i]

What 0%? It wasn't the EU that pushed up our VAT rates from 0%, 8% and 12.5% but the UK Govt. Initial they went to 15% (except 0% rated) to cover the Poll Tax fiasco and then up to 17.5% (again except 0% and 5% rated).

There aren't many countries with 0% rated items anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_of_Europe