[Closed] So, Scotland, again...

Northwind - Member
THM- you're right, I slipped there, should have said Britain rather than England.

Not a bad piece that - no wonder other regions aren't lining up for an independence vote though!!!

I would like to see the maths in some of the calc's eg, I was surprised how little impact NS Oil made on a per capita basis - yes it makes sense, but still the impact in the case is still (for me!) a surprise.

I doubt the analysis uses by either side will be as balanced, eh?!? Oh blimey, two more years on this...

If Salmond gets his wish he will have to throw some massive sweetners towards Orkney and Shetland to prevent them walking away with all the North Sea oil revenues. They would have a very valid claim for independence themselves!

I'm going to step away before it gets a shit slinging contest but today's economic conditions are quite obviously not relevant to something taking place in 2 or 3 years time as pointed out earlier. We don't really even understand what's going on right now.

I see. So the argument is that we can't make any economic predictions at all?

athgray - Member

If Salmond gets his wish he will have to throw some massive sweetners towards Orkney and Shetland to prevent them walking away with all the North Sea oil revenues. They would have a very valid claim for independence themselves!

That's where it gets fun, eh! And if RBS get back on their feet, brace yourselves for the People's Republic of Gogarburn and South Gyle

You're the one who made the deranged comment so if anyone's being daft, frankly it's you.

Did I forget to write "in 50 years"? No? Well that's OK then.

To be frank, anyone who thinks they can predict economic conditions in 50 years is obviously deranged. Turns out, [b]we can't even predict them in 5 (ah let's be honest, it turns out we don't really know what's going on today)[/b]

Just in case you forgot what you wrote.
Goodnight.

Er. Yes. So as your quote correctly shows, my "deranged" comment was
about 50 years from now. Thanks?

Meanwhile, back in the conversation...

Northwind - Member

among them, that Scotland adds more value to the UK economy per capita than most of the UK (and the exceptions, London and the South East, are of course massively influenced by the centralisation of government)

You need to get your facts right on how wealths generated in the South east of England and in addition on which areas of the country have more than 50% of the workforce employed by the government.

Might come as a surprise to hear something like 30% of the total tax take in the UK comes from the City of London - evil bankers, hang-em burn-em etc....

Genuine question now - whats the economic case for independence being put forward by the SNP. I genuinely have no idea, presumably its based on retaining 90% of the North Sea Oil reserves? What have they got to say about the cessation of the funding for Scotland from the Barnett Formula and the £80 billion debt of Royal Bank of Scotland to the UK?

And I'd be interested in your view on retaining the pound? Personally I think that's a deeply flawed plan, independent nation states trying to use a single currency leads to fiscal chaos, as has happened twice in Europe previously.

druidh - Member
Zulu-Eleven » You think the Spanish are going to sit by and watch a region of a country declare independence on the basis of a referendum, then accede to them gaining EU membership?
They've already said that they would.

Hadn't read that, and given the way Catalonia's provoking the central government right now, I'd be surprised if it were current policy. Still, I could certainly be wrong.

Lets not forget the Greek view of accession to the EU for Scotland, as he bit of Macedonia still in Greece wants independence and they currently refuse to recognize the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (hence the silly name). Might set a dubious precedent they would have to follow.

Ah, perhaps I was unclear Gweilo- of course London doesn't depend on public spending for its income! I think most people are still basically in touch with the fact that the City is a huge cash cow (I'm the last person on here that can talk about evil bankers, I was one!)

However, having the seat of government in London is a financial bonus for the area. And this is a nice example of how following the money gets so complicated of course, since the cost of government is rightly considered a national cost, but tax paid by those workers is localised to where they live. (and of course, numbers of public sector workers aren't what counts here- earnings are)

This isn't a criticism though- the government has to be somewhere. But it's something that isn't always acknowledged.

You also have to acknowledge in this sort of argument that where tax is paid isn't always an indicator of where it is incurred- companies with their head offices in a particular place are often shown as being revenue for the city, but the incomes that they're paying tax on are national. (I won't even attempt to put numbers on this!)

I assume, for the "areas of the country that have more than 50% of people employed by the government" you must be slicing into some pretty thin areas? Would be interesting to see examples

England is just as welcome to secede from the UK as Scotland.

Good, so lets have the referendum on both sides of the border then.

Gweilo - Member

Genuine question now - whats the economic case for independence being put forward by the SNP. I genuinely have no idea, presumably its based on retaining 90% of the North Sea Oil reserves? What have they got to say about the cessation of the funding for Scotland from the Barnett Formula and the £80 billion debt of Royal Bank of Scotland to the UK?

And I'd be interested in your view on retaining the pound? Personally I think that's a deeply flawed plan, independent nation states trying to use a single currency leads to fiscal chaos, as has happened twice in Europe previously.

Ah now the SNP aren't going to trouble themselves with such trivial details 😉 (though, they do rightly point out that some matters will be the responsibility of the party in power after independance) Mostly it is party policy to waffle and bluster.

Yes, most arguments assume the 90% north sea oil split. Some still work with 100% but that seems unfashionable.

What do they need to say about the Barnett Formula? It'll be no more of course.

The currency situation... Well, it's just vagueness so far isn't it. Personally, the idea of retaining the pound stirling seems full of problems, but I don't have an informed opinion (and frankly there's a lack of nonpolitical expert discussion of this, or at least as far as I've seen). Key point to be resolved, otherwise we'll end up using returnable glass Irn Bru bottles.

The division of national debt seems more straightforward than most areas of controversy... A proportional split by population, leaving Scotland with about 80bn of former-UK debt (and rising). (and a proportional split of former-UK government owned assets such as RBOS, etc)

zokes - Member

Good, so lets have the referendum on both sides of the border then.

By all means you may have a referendum if you wish to leave the UK.

This is a bit like the West Lothian Question tbh. ie, a nonissue.

Just interrupting the debate to ask:

How can Scotland say "We're shagging off but we'd like to keep sterling"? Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who's currency it is? What's to stop the new UK of EW&NI saying "bugger off and join the euro then."

[quote=deadlydarcy ]Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who's currency it is?
Yes

By all means you may have a referendum if you wish to leave the UK.

This is a bit like the West Lothian Question tbh. ie, a nonissue.

There is a referendum going to happen about Scottish independence. Unless that's also a nonissue, why not make it like druidh's inaccurate analogy and actually have it so that both halves get to decide. Otherwise it just looks like you want to have your cake and eat it. Again.

[quote=zokes ]By all means you may have a referendum if you wish to leave the UK.
This is a bit like the West Lothian Question tbh. ie, a nonissue.
There is a referendum going to happen about Scottish independence. Unless that's also a nonissue, why not make it like druidh's inaccurate analogy and actually have it so that both halves get to decide. Otherwise it just looks like you want to have your cake and eat it. Again.
If you want a referendum on English secession, you only need to get enough folk to want it, for a political party to support it and put in in their manifesto, and for enough folk to vote for that party so that they win a general election.

In lieu of none of that happening, I can only suggest that maybe there just isn't enough interest in this south of the border.

Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who's currency it is?

Is England going to ban us from using the £ sign on our keyboards? That's all a currency is, really, a shared symbol.

Just asking the question out of interest, that was all.

zokes - Member

There is a referendum going to happen about Scottish independence.

Yes there is. And there can be a referendum about English independance. But there can't be a referendum to prevent Scottish independance (or, vice versa).

Druidh's analogy is sound in that you can decide to leave a marriage, or not, but you can't decide to keep one together if the other party wants to leave. It gets a bit wonky as there's 4 members of this marriage, so one can leave and the marriage will still exist.

deadlydarcy - Member

Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who's currency it is?

Yup... Frexample, Zimbabwe uses the USD, I think.

But in this case, I can't see that as a workable route, there's got to be consent and understanding I reckon.

As Northwind says, the currency question seems to be amongst the most vexatious.

Relying on the exchange rate and financial policies of a neighbouring country is not ideal (though some countries have successfully done this).

The future of the Euro is completely uncertain. Who knows, we may even say a two-rate Euro at some point.

Starting off a separate Scottish Currency is always a possibility. Many (new) countries have managed to do this - mostly with less in the way of natural resources than Scotland has, though few with the startup national debt either.

Another currency union is also a possibility. Perhaps with one or more of the Scandinavian countries?

The currency one is interesting - more so because Scotland has no legal tender anyway.

Mel Gibson yesterday hinted in a CNN interview that Hammond will be pushing for a Scottish Dollar.

The currency one is interesting - more so because Scotland has no legal tender anyway.

I don't follow. Why does that make it more interesting? Is legal tender not just some sort of debt settlement fine print?

The currency one is interesting - more so because Scotland has no legal tender anyway.

I'm thinking aloud, really - a legal tender (I think) has to be accepted in payment of a debt, whereas a currency which isn't a legal tender carries no obligation. I could pay for something in Tunnocks wrappers, but only if the person I'm paying agrees. So a currency which isn't a legal tender has to be more secure to be trusted. Maybe 🙂

enfht - Member

Mel Gibson yesterday hinted in a CNN interview that Hammond will be pushing for a Scottish Dollar.

How unimaginative that would be. Shekels, maybe, or quatloos.

I think we have almost equal levels of knowledge on this subject, Ben. 😉

Plain old legal currency seems to work fine for the most part.

the only legal tender in Scotland at present are coins

I thought this was true in the rest of the UK also: the whole "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of XXXX" on English notes

Maybe silver Sickles or gold Galleons if the kids are all getting a say. (Which they should do.)

But there can't be a referendum to prevent Scottish independance (or, vice versa).

But it wouldn't be. If put to the whole of the UK, the referendum would ask the whole of the UK their views on a decision that will affect the whole of the UK.

You never know, you might get lucky - the 55m people south of the boarder might be gladly rid of Scotland 😉

I think we have almost equal levels of knowledge on this subject, Ben.

It's no fun pontificating when you actually know what you're talking about 🙂

Yer damn tootin.

2014: Scots vote against independence by some margin, Scots Nats continue to bitch and whine for however many decades until they're allowed to rerun the referendum, then lose again, continue bitching and whining and repeat ad nauseum

Breaking news on Twitter. Apparently Lance Armstrong is planning a sponsored cycle run around Scotland to raise funds for the Independence "Yes" campaign, and he's not going to wear a helmet.

Will the £80 billion of UK debt people talk about take into account the £18 billion cost of cleaning up Faslane after the "Royal Navy" have left?
What is your issue Zokes? You have a very negative attitude to us, as displayed by your posting on this thread. If you dislike us that much,why don't you want us to leave?

On the EU issue; the main problem Scotland would have with being accepted is that it sets a precedent for Italy,Spain and France...Who like our Colonial Masters 😀 don't want to lose any of their vassal states.

why don't you want us to leave?

What gives you that idea? As I've alluded to - give the referendum to the whole of the UK, and you might just find you're leaving whether you want to or not 😆

Ten minutes reading an independence thread on Singletrackworld would persude even the most ardent Scottish Unionists to vote for independence! Some of the most ridiculous little englander attitudes and misinformation that could be read anywhere.
My favourite one is that Scotland has massive amounts of public money unfairly spent on it while England goes without, Wrong!
Scotland generates 9.7% of UK tax revenue and only accounts for 9.2% of the expenditure from 9% of the population, so per person we contribute more and take relatively speaking less, small margins but we pay our way. If you breakdown this by each region of the UK some areas like the NE of England are subsidised by the SE by a quite ridiculous amount, up to 2K per person per year, Scotland has no dependency on the wealth of the SE never mind being reliant on it to the extent that the English regions are.

I don't think we'll get independence this time around but give it another 20 years and I'm sure it will happen, hopefully I'll still be around to witness it.

I'm thinking aloud, really - a legal tender (I think) has to be accepted in payment of a debt, whereas a currency which isn't a legal tender carries no obligation. I could pay for something in Tunnocks wrappers, but only if the person I'm paying agrees. So a currency which isn't a legal tender has to be more secure to be trusted. Maybe

I thought this was true in the rest of the UK also: the whole "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of XXXX" on English notes

Ten minutes reading an independence thread on Singletrackworld would persude even the most ardent Scottish Unionists to vote for independence!

Ten minutes of reading this would make a Sassenach vote for independence!

You never know, you might get lucky - the 55m people south of the boarder might be gladly rid of Scotland

BBSB - I think the issue for most Sassenachs is Alex Salmon's smug face and deceitful approach to the whole issue. Personally, I believe that both parties would be better off maintaining the status quo - and Scotland relatively more so. But I hope that the "no" campaign doesn't get frightened away from spelling out the realities of the situation. Salmon is a past master at dirty politics and manipulation and will twist the "we dont want people from the South telling us what to do" as a far as possible to distort the debate. You could even see this in CMD's reticence yesterday. AS is right on one thing - don't underestimate his weaseling ability, or you will regret it (and so will Scotland).

I do want scottish independence. Whether the scots want it or not.