In which case the opinion polls from the end of Corbyn’s tenure, and the recent one Binners spaffed himself over, are essentially meaningless.
The one opinion poll that really mattered at the end of Corbyns tenure - the one where you express your opinion in the voting booth - delivered an 80 seat Tory majority. Hardly meaningless.
We are all paying the price for the abject failure of the Corbynite 'project'.
The party under Starmer seems to be successfully distancing itself from it, which is making them more likely to form a government. They've moved a long way in the last 9 months with regard to recovering some much-needed credibility and establishing an air of competence and fitness for office, that is so clearly missing from the shower presently in charge.
For some truly bizarre reason, that seems to really, really piss off those on the left, who clearly prefer a life of impotent placard-waving and petition signing, while endlessly retweeting #Jeremywasright into their 6th form echo chambers
I fear the next two years are going to be turgid, completely dominated by the negative effects of Brexit and the approbrium will be piled on Boris and his acolytes.
I wonder how eager many Tories are to boot out Boris right Now? Better to let him stew in his own cauldron of shit for a year or two, wait till the country hits absolute rock bottom and then stage an internal coup, reinventing themselves just in time for the next election.
The Tories are experts at this sort of thing. It's something the Republcans in the US would love to be able to do but can't. The cult of Boris is a lot more fragile than that of the orange one. I'm not knocking Starmer but my gut tells me Sunak will be the next PM and will fight and win the next election.
I think you're bang on.
They're going to leave Boris to stew. He's clearly hating all this. This isn't what he signed up for. He signed up for a big jolly, swanning around the globe, shaking hands and kissing babies (not his own, obviously). I think he saw himself more as a king rather than a politician who actually has to make tough decisions.
Theres going to be a hell of a reckoning when this is all done. A public inquiry into the whole shambles, PPE, corrupt contracts, the test and trace fiasco, appalling decision making. Boris and co are going to be in the dock and are going to have to carry the can for the lot as well as the mess of Brexit as it all unravels and the sunlit uplands fail to materialise to even the dimmest of Brexiteers
Whoever Starmer ends up going up against at the next general election, it certainly won't be Boris. And I doubt many more of the collection of dimwits that make up the present cabinet will be there either
I’m not ‘defending’ him as he doesn’t need defending. I’m pointing out that he’s shifted the poll ratings by 30 points in less than twelve months
Correlation does not mean cause. I reckon its mostly Boris doing the hard yards himself.
Clearly not as easily satisfied as you. Like a lot of you those on the left, you seem an awful lot happier with a Tory government with a massive majority, the Labour party as popular with the electorate as a fart in a lift, but with your precious idealogical purity intact.
A purity so intense that Starmer was my second preference for leader, and I never voted for Corbyn. But I wouldn't expect you to start admitting facts into your arguments, given your history. Much easier to parcel people you disagree with into neat little packages, ready to be abused.
Anyway… that poll shows a 4 point lead, so your statement is factually inaccurate anyway
It's great that you're able to disregard all of the evidence that contradicts your view, and cling on to the one titbit in your favour.
"If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through."
This just popped up in my twitter feed:
Vaccine bounce, I suspect tory lead will only get bigger as vaccine rollout hits target in Feb & EU having shot themselves in foot
Electorates memories are short, even with UKs death toll
I agree. The same poll also showed Johnson as more popular than Starmer.
Electorates memories are short, even with UKs death toll
I refer you to comments I made some time ago about how the tories would ultimately benefit from covid. I never for a second thought they'd they'd get a massive helping hand from the EU though. Also news this morning that Boris and Sunak are planning a massive public spending splurge post-covid to turbocharge the recovery. Seems Starmer is destined to spend the next few years saying 'I agree with Boris'. He's screwed. Boris will increase his majority and Starmer will go down as one of the least effective labour leaders in history.
But he won a poll last week
Also news this morning that Boris and Sunak are planning a massive public spending splurge post-covid to turbocharge the recovery.
It's been happening for a while: I can assure you that there's never been a better time to apply for government grant funding.
It’s been happening for a while
Yup. I'm convinced Boris is a secret MMTer. He's discovered that there's a magic money tree and like all good populists is going to use it for maximum advantage. It's going to be interesting to see what Starmer does. We could well have the odd scenario of a labour leader opposing tory largesse. Starmer is going to have to come up with something very imaginitive because right now he feels like a complete irrelevance.
He’s discovered that there’s a magic money tree and like all good populists is going to use it for maximum advantage. It’s going to be interesting to see what Starmer does.
Yeah. Boris knows which buttons to push that will be popular, even if he never delivers.
In a year or so after Covid has hopefully passed, the Tory's can focus on divisive attacks on Labour, probably based on social issues.
Starmer and co. Need to start forming a solid economic and social stance which they can back up and really get behind to push back on the inevitable attacks that are coming.
At the moment Starmer does still seem a bit reactionary which has been ok for a while but that time is now slowly coming to an end.
Tory’s can focus on divisive attacks on Labour, probably based on social issues.
They won't need to attack. All they'll do is dismiss labour as an irrelevance, and they're right. They'll say they beat covid with the vaccine programme, and are supporting the economic recovery with massive spending, and all Starmer can do is snipe from the sidelines. Starmer will be forced to continue his 'we support the government, but..' line and that's all the tories need to win the next election and extend their majority.
That's pretty much the way I see it too dazh, by the next election the Tories will likely appear to have moved towards the centre, probably with Sunak (Mr money tree) at the helm.
It will be interesting to see how the social issues thing will play out over the next couple of years but the Tories will pull back from the culture war (As they put it) thing. By the time of the next election the Tories will likely purge many of the hard-core right wingers and ERG nuts from the front bench. A Sunak cabinet will be made up of talents (thin pickings I know) rather than allegiance to Brexit and the dear leader. Gove will likely be the only survivor as he's a complete political chameleon whilst the others are just lizards.
I've never seen Boris so nervous as when I saw his first TV interview after Biden's inauguration, the Tories had banked on a Trump win and the false promise (as it always was) of a US trade deal. They had also gotten too comfortable with the lazy, socially divisive and racist rhetoric that had worked so well for them in getting a leave vote and had continued to suit their purposes whilst a raging fascist was in control at the White House.
The Tories will be much more cautious with the new administration,. The UK is desperate for a trade deal so won't want to piss the Americans off. For the US at bilateral trade deal with the UK is somewhere near the bottom of the in tray as it is. Those Tories that have cheered for Trump these last four years will now be grovelling to Biden and Harris.
😂
Ok, that’s pretty funny.
Tim Farron is my local MP, he's actually great. Shame he's a weird Christian but his voting record is good regardless.
If only the media picked on Boris (or any other Tory) the same way they picked on Farron & Corbyn.
Yeah Farron was kinda ambushed - it was pretty much 'with your religious beliefs, how do you feel about rimming? What about felching? Cottaging? Hmm? Eh? Hmmm? Our area would be naturally Tory really but he keeps getting elected because he works his arse off and is accessible and accountable to his constituents. No copy and paste responses to letters.
BTW I just watched the Labour party political broadcast and I think I have even less idea what Labour stands for than I did before.
I found it a very depressing watch. Again though, not aimed at me, is it. Getting people to switch from Tory to Labour in Tory seats (that’s where we are now, with the LibDems all but gone and Labour falling back further and further in SNP seats) is at the heart of all current messaging. And I’m as far from being one of those target voters as possible. As I think are you Grum.
Link online anywhere?
I just watched the Labour party political broadcast and I think I have even less idea what Labour stands for than I did before
I'm beginning to despair for the next election. Starmer has avoided the blatant open goals to avoid the accusation of playing politics with the crisis, instead of pointing out the repeated errors and cockups and the fact that the government is directly responsible for half the deaths and economic disaster.
He needs to stop being the nice guy and be the ****ing furious but rational guy.
Cheers dallas
With every week that passes Starmer looks more like the charisma and personality free robotic lawyer that many feared he would be. Outside of politely deferring to Boris and his idiot friends no one has any idea what he stands for or what the point in labour is any more. I know I don’t. I haven’t got a clue where he or labour are going, and I have an unhealthy interest in it so god knows what the average voter who doesn’t follow politics thinks.
They probably notice the union flag he keeps standing in front of. I think that’s meant for them.
Anyway, do you wish you’d voted for one of the other candidates now Dazh? If so, which one?
With every week that passes Starmer looks more like the charisma and personality free robotic lawyer that many feared he would be.
Sadly yes. If he has any passion he certainly doesn't show it.
If not Starmer, who WOULD we like to see as LOTO?
How much of the Government's new found competence coincides with the removal of the charismatic psychopath as advisor, are there really some grown ups in charge now?
Or how much is because everything so far has been so appalling that there are effectively no choices any more, hence no chance of choosing the wrong one.
Leading someone up to the end of a cul-de-sac and then confidently proclaiming you know the route is back the way you came isn't competence in map reading.
god knows what the average voter who doesn’t follow politics thinks.
It won't really matter until five minutes before the next election.
If not Starmer, who WOULD we like to see as LOTO?
Ed Killerband.
He seems to have some fire in him these days.
If not Starmer, who WOULD we like to see as LOTO?
As a leader who the public would warm to, already know them and is likeable I would say Ed Balls (he has even been on strictly come dancing!)
(would need to get him back as MP again first though obviously)
The average voter is not deep into policies, they are not watching PMQs, they are not even into politics but they would vote for someone who they like and has some easy to remember phrases in place of policies (see Boris Johnson)
LOTO? Piers Morgan* seems pretty good at holding the government to account. I'd pay to watch that PMQs
Yes, I know he's a **** but
If not Starmer, who WOULD we like to see as LOTO?
Marcus Rashford.
"> https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000ryh2/party-political-broadcasts-labour-party-01022021
I found it a very depressing watch. Again though, not aimed at me, is it.
I.... actually quite liked it. Sure it's not some tub thumping fanfare, but it's not the time for that. Touched on the Tory incompetence but didn't dwell too long and overall was a decent positive package.
Moving forward they can't keep being so timid, but for right now, thought it was pretty well judged, both verbal and imagery.
god knows what the average voter who doesn’t follow politics thinks.
depressingly (or not depends-on your view I guess) I was having this conversation with some of the young volunteers at the COVID vaccination site at the weekend, I’d say that over half of them had to think for a bit before naming the PM and most didn’t know what party was currently in govt, and most of them didn’t care. They haven’t a clue who Kier Starmer is
If not Starmer, who WOULD we like to see as LOTO?
Could we arrange a free transfer of Nicola Sturgeon for you?
and most didn’t know what party was currently in govt, and most of them didn’t care.
Yes. It's shocking how many people couldn't answer "What are the core principles party X stands for"? With the exception probably of the Greens and Brexit. 🙂
I’m beginning to despair for the next election. Starmer has avoided the blatant open goals to avoid the accusation of playing politics with the crisis, instead of pointing out the repeated errors and cockups and the fact that the government is directly responsible for half the deaths and economic disaster.
He needs to stop being the nice guy and be the **** furious but rational guy.
They were looking at this in the Observer on Sunday. The problem the Labour party has is that all polling and focus grouping is showing that in the situation we're presently in, a majority of voters tend to agree with the 'playing politics' and 'rallying behind the government' message. Thats why Boris reverts to it all the time. Because it works.
It appears that when Starmer points out that the government has done things too late, then that works and hits home with voters, but the moment he steps beyond that and goes on the offensive, voters take a very dim view. Thats why Boris keeps on with the default accusations of 'Playing Politics' when being held to account. It works, and he knows it (because he'll be doing the same polling and focus grouping, showing the same results)
So Starmer is doing what all the evidence is pointing too and treading very carefully. Its a balance.
Before the next election (in 4 years) this will be largely behind us (the economic impact won't be, obviously) and there is going to be one serious reckoning about how this whole thing was handled. You can only imagine what further horrors, incompetence, cronyism and corruption the public inquiry will unearth. Thats the time to be doing things, not now.
As someone who does actually watch the news, as you lot do, Starmer spent yesterday doing exactly what he should have been doing. visiting people who are impacted by the post-Grenfall cladding on buildings scandal and calling for the government to sort out the mess and start holding the dodgy developers and cladding suppliers to account.
What exactly would those criticising him have him do? Practically?
When you just say 'show some passion' we all know that despite playing well with the cult members on Twitter, Corbyns shouty ten-second soundbites went down like a cup of warm sick with the electorate, so they've already shown that they certainly don't want any more of that, thanks. Particularly not in the middle of a pandemic
So what exactly would you have him do?
Anyway, do you wish you’d voted for one of the other candidates now Dazh? If so, which one?
RLB might have done a better job at opposing Boris and exposing his eugenicist tendencies but she was still the wrong choice, Nandy is still the out of depth attention seeker she always was. Right now the only stand-out member of the shadow cabinet is Miliband. I wouldn't be surprised if we see him back in the job, possibly before the next election if Starmer doesn't start to show some fire.
Fair point Daz. Why should losing one election be any impediment to standing to lose another?
