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Before we go too navel gazing, another ceasefire vote is not entirely comfortable for the Tories either. A lot of the public, supporting all parties, want the horror to stop and humanitarian aid rushing in.
I think the Israelis have pushed on so far with their offensive since the last ceasefire call that Starmer has room to "seek advice" (aka read the room) and support it, but he needs to try and get the jump on the messaging ahead of Tory U turn claims.
He's got a chance to isolate the government on a contentious issue and make them look unpopular, as well as do the "right" thing. Win/win.
It won't happen.
I figure this thread is the best place for this interview with Yanis Varoufakis, he rips apart the current Labour Party, Keir Starmer and specifically Rachel Reeves
Quote : I’d prefer to have bastards in power who claim to be bastards representing the Aristocracy than Bastards in power who claim to be representing the working class
Before we go too navel gazing, another ceasefire vote is not entirely comfortable for the Tories either. A lot of the public, supporting all parties, want the horror to stop and humanitarian aid rushing in.
They have, i think David Cameron has pretty much gone the furthest in terms of declaring that the UK are against the current conflict with the statement regarding the UK recognising the Palestinian State, sounds small, but is quite a big statement to make against Netanyahu.
The reality though is that any vote will be voted down by tories, the west are staying in lockstep and working with the US, and nobody will break the line, you'll get the odd politician making statements, like Cameron has, but it'll just be words until the US actually do something drastic, which in an election year is going to be a nightmare to get parties behind, especially with Trump running around like a dafty.
Watty
I’ve just watched that whilst on the turbo
What is it we say? Ah yeah. Username checks out...
so that express poll definitely looking like an outlier
before this one below the average tightening had been 2%
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1758498007337558337
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1758519448435069424?t=WgcvDCjlW_gh_RlQurVsEw&s=19
Someone likes the Tories.
Someone likes the Tories.
Well they have been doing a lot of good stuff.
I know we're not supposed to cross post but
I’d forgotten about the by elections, just caught up on the results.
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Obviously Starmer’s Labour party has got it all wrong and will be rejected by the electorate.
Obviously Starmer’s Labour party has got it all wrong and will be rejected by the electorate.
Well it's obviously a bit premature to say that with total confidence, as they haven't even formed a government yet, but that is a widely held opinion.
After all the Tories seem set to be comprehensively rejected by the electorate after winning a landslide at the last election.
Although presumably judging from your posting history you believe that rejigging Tory policies will work the magic for Starmer?
Nothing is certain but it has long been accepted that the Tories will be unable to form a majority government after the next general election.
That is the greatest certainty, and yesterday's by-election results seem to confirm this.
You dont do irony do you Ernie?
but that is a widely held opinion
You and 5 others on here doesnt equate to widely held opinion.
You've got to be cautious, voting will be closer than the polls as tories always vote, but one big scandal, or big victory for the government and it changes overnight.
As for Starmer, he'll do well for the election i think, i just think after it he'll maybe be a problem with his vanilla approach, but as always, first thing is get into power, get a majority and then you have 5 years to change your leadership, your approach and so on, just get into power first before you start governing!
On today's ride... I had Kinnock's "we're alll... right.." singing in my ears.
Once the campaign proper is on, and the papers help + much bigger spend of the Conservatives kicks in... a Labour loss is definitely still possible. Unthinkable... but possible. A fall over on the beach here... a bacon sandwich here... an exasperated comment when you think the mics aren't on there... the Tories can't win on their record, but the sentiment that they are still better at governing than Labour, or a coalition of parties, can probably still be reignited by a few irrelevant opposition gaffs and the full focus of the media put on them. Starmer and his apparent unease in front of a camera could still end up being the decider in the minds of swing voters... and the idea that Suank is the best of two bad choices... and that "they're pretty much all the same, but Labour can't be trusted with our money" can be pushed... not with logic... but with feelings.
You and 5 others on here doesnt equate to widely held opinion.
No it doesn't.
What on earth made you think that by saying "widely held opinion" I meant a widely held opinion on STW?
There is a world outside STW and shockingly not everyone thinks that Sir Keir Starmer will solve the UK's problems and draw grateful admiration from the electorate.
Personally I give it less than 12 months before the electorate realise how little Starmer has to offer - he will probably get away with blaming everything on the previous Tory government for the first few months, but clearly not indefinitely.
You on the other hand have obviously far greater faith in Starmer as Prime Minister. I truly hope you, and more importantly voters, are not disappointed.
I didnt just mean STW.......
https://twitter.com/MikeGapes/status/1758508729211715985?t=4_60boUHCJGn1VfeESjIhg&s=19
For the Labour right - they don't care so much about solving problems - maybe Stumpystump can hang with Gapes and enjoy the ride?
What on earth made you think that by saying “widely held opinion” I meant a widely held opinion on STW?
Centrists are so touchy about their Conservative made position that anyone other position can't be valid.
Unless it's Brexit where majorities don't matter.
Yep there is a world outside the STW consensus.
seeing a +4 , bump after the last week is surprising, makes you suspicious of the pollsters! But then a lot of people don't pay that much attention to the Westminster soap opera
whether labour can sustain that sort of lead into the autumn is the big question
position that anyone other position can’t be valid.
Coming from you, with your own made up magic money tree system which you ram down everyone elses throats at every opportunity, thats really a bit rich. You seem to hate centrists which you've projected your own interpretation of their views onto more than the conservatives and the other right wing head bangers.
Are you pro Brexit now as well?
The country is broadly right of centre, always has been, being intolerant of that isnt going to change it. Seeing the Conservatives vacate the central ground and Labour move in is great. We have some more serious politicians with a more progressive agenda, best outcome we're going to get at the next election.
Doesnt really matter though does it, I doubt you'd be happy with any politician or political system, the only you like doing is telling everyone else how bad it all is.
How on earth is Starmer ‘more progressive’??
The country is broadly right of centre, always has been,
Why do you keep repeating this lie? It isnt. You can see this from a casual glance at the voting distribution.
The voting system is rigged in the tories favour though.
Seeing the Conservatives vacate the central ground and Labour move in is great.
The incoherence of your argument is staggering. So on the one hand you are claiming, incorrectly, the country is centre right and is intolerant of change and on the other hand labour taking the centre ground is a good thing.
Why exactly?
Since the former precludes the latter doing much.
The country has been run for the centrists for the last forty years bar a couple of bones thrown to the loons in the last couple.
Have you not noticed how things arent going well? Exactly why would labour enacting the centrists self serving and overall damaging policies help?
"im really left wing but here's why I'm going to do everything I can to ensure conservatives keep winning elections"
How on earth is Starmer ‘more progressive’??
Are you suggesting Starmer is less progressive than Sunak?
Have you not noticed how things arent going well?
Yes, with the right wing loons in charge, wasn't doing so badly before the most recent governments and Brexit.
I'm not sure what is being "summed up"?
It has been obvious for a very long time that the Tories will lose the next general election by a very large margin.
Most people seem to agree with that, although a few centrists are still arguing that Labour needs to comprise even more, for example ditching the £28bn green pledge, because its not in the bag and the Tories could still win.
Labour won Kingswood by 2501 votes. Reform polled 2758 votes, Reform won Kingswood for Labour
Labour won Wellingborough by 6436 votes. Reform polled 3919 votes, a more convincing win for Labour but they're by no means out of the woods and Starmer is right to be cautious (but isn't he always?)
From Kimbers link. I think its aimed at Torys in denial but it equally applies to people on this thread.
It’s Not Too Late For Starmer to Listen to Me
Keir Starmer has been ignoring my advice for four years now, and is 20 points ahead in the polls. But there is still time for him to change course, before he has to deal with the horrifying prospect of a triple-figure parliamentary majority.
And
It’s Time For Labour Supporters to Face the Truth: Starmer Has Failed
Although I wasn’t his greatest fan, I was prepared to give the Labour leader a fair chance. But no longer. At minus eight months into his time in office, it’s clear he has already let down the British people. He has betrayed the hopes and dreams of all those of us who believed in a Labour alternative.
And
Yes, But A Mandate For What?
Starmer is on course to win, but by not setting out detailed plans for his second term in office, does he risk being forced to govern without any mandate to change the country beyond millions of votes and hundreds of MPs?
Labour won Kingswood by 2501 votes. Reform polled 2758 votes, Reform won Kingswood for Labour
Only if you accept the assumption - which is not supported by polling - that all Reform voters would have otherwise voted Tory.
And Reform is a direct result of Tory policy, populise / legitimise the nastiness of the right, trouble is it backfired and instead of hoovering up those votes Reform did. In the meantime Starmer continues to eat away at voters on the left of the conservative spectrum so the Torys are getting squeezed from both sidea (but shush we're not allowed to mention how well Starmer is doing in the polls cos he's got it all wrong and being in government is meaningless anyway, it's better to shout from the sidelines in opposition about how things could be so much better if only everyone else bought into the collective fever dream of sunlit uplands and unicorns for everyone).
I wouldn't put deals on contested seats and a coalition agreement out of the bounds of possibility; both Conservatives and Reform are desperate enough
Labour won Kingswood by 2501 votes. Reform polled 2758 votes, Reform won Kingswood for Labour
And..... if that is what you believe where is the problem?
Do you prescribe to this weird theory that Reform UK will pull out of the general election at the last minute?
Reform UK's support in the two by-elections were in line with what national opinion polls are saying. Even if Reform UK decided not to stand at the general election and ALL their votes went to the Tories (a completely unrealistic scenario) Labour would still win.
Reform UK's 10% (all of it) plus the Tories's 25% still falls short of Labour's 45%
Labour is very likely to win a huge landslide thanks to Reform UK, if Reform UK decide not to stand at the general election Labour will in all likelihood still form a government.
The argument "we need to comprise even more" is simply an excuse by so-called centrists to push for an even more right-wing agenda.
(but shush we’re not allowed to mention how well Starmer is doing in the polls cos he’s got it all wrong and being in government is meaningless anyway, it’s better to shout from the sidelines in opposition about how things could be so much better if only everyone else bought into the collective fever dream of sunlit uplands and unicorns for everyone).
Nobody is saying that. Starmer will win a very healthy majority. There will be austerity lite for the duration of the next parliament, growth will be slow, productivity will be low and the UK will lag behind comparable economies. We will not rejoin the EU. The solution to this will be more austerity and increased privatisation by stealth. Living standards will stagnate. The solution will be more austerity. Public services will be eroded more than already and the solution will be stealth privatisation. Foreign policy will be determined by the US. There will be some progressive measures but nothing that affects the hard architecture of the state. The above will be done in a well managed and an orderly fashion presented by serious career politicians and technocrats. The batton will then pass back to the Conservatives. In short, not a lot will change but it will be done better.
Anyone want to disagree with that assessment?
Anyone want to disagree with that assessment?
Not really, seems pretty much spot-on to me. The only bit I might query is this :
"The batten will then pass back to the Conservatives"
Probably at some point but the nature of Western democracy is changing, nothing seems to be quite as predictable as was the case previously.
The political crisis in Western democracy appears to be more profound than its inevitable cyclic economic crises. In short bourgeois democracy after a hundred years or more has found to be wanting. What comes next is harder to predict.
"And if that is what you believe where is the problem?"
It doesn't matter what I believe, it matters that labour isn't complacent, which is what I said.
"Do you prescribe to this weird theory that Reform UK will pull out of the general election at the last minute?"
No, but Farage isn't above making a deal, like he did in 2019, "country before party" as he said then. As for polls, the majority from 2014 on said that we'd stay in the EU. Remind me how that worked out...
As for polls, the majority from 2014 on said that we’d stay in the EU. Remind me how that worked out…
Two years later there was a narrow majority in favour of Leave, and ?
The margin of error of opinion polls is about 3%, have you seen recent opinion polls?
The huge Labour lead has been actually getting slightly bigger recently, and the general election is really quite soon - we are not in midterm!
Yes, with the right wing loons in charge, wasn’t doing so badly before the most recent governments and Brexit.
We werent doing well before brexit hence why we had brexit etc.
You and other centre right people might have been doing okay but you are a small minority. Its why people were asking for a change however fanciful and how the hard right populists got their foot in the door.
Many of the problems we are facing now are due to decades of thatcherite policy coming home to roost. Our housing market for example with the moronic policy of selling off most of the public housing cheap and then leaving it all to the "market".
We werent doing well before brexit hence why we had brexit etc.
austerity at the root of so much of our problems, ironically that resentment led to scapegoating the EU for then and then Brexit, with Brexit now hammering the country even more...
Anyone want to disagree with that assessment?
Nope, sounds pretty much spot on for England. Hopefully things will be different up here in Scotland
The idea that all the woes started with Brexit is only for those half way up the food chain.
The country has been on a downward trajectory for years. Come on keep up.
Just enough crumbs drop off occasionally and land on people's low interest assets to keep them entertained. For now.
Middle classes will be next to be gobbled up as wealth concentrates even more.
None of this is complex. A transfer of state assets to the private sector. If you're part of that private sector you will probably think everything is great. Until Brexit ruined your visa-less ski trip (tongue in cheek) then it was a horror show for us all to see.
You've also been told socialism is awful whilst mostly experiencing the fails of Neolibralism.
Imagine what all this does to your voting head! It's now good to vote for right wing polices 'cos Labour are doing them and not the Tories.
Sound fiscal-finance from the George Osborne created embarrassment that is the OBR - borrowed from the party you hate to the party you love!
These fiscal institutions (OBR, BoE) etc are not working for you BTW. They are working for the markets and the wealthy. Imagine being in a democracy where they decide what's good for society - with barely any modelling whatsoever to justify it.
Nope, sounds pretty much spot on for England. Hopefully things will be different up here in Scotland
I live in Scotland. I work in local authority, my wife's a teacher, my sister in law a nurse (in Scotland).
We've been shielded from the worst of it, but the pain is well and truly in the post. Things are going to go down hill quickly from here on in. We can't defy gravity forever and the nice words from Holyrood will increasingly be realised as symbolic rather than material
Are you suggesting Starmer is less progressive than Sunak?
I think Larrydavid summed it up quite perfectly. Trying to claim Starmer is ‘more progressive’ than Sunak is like saying one shade of grey is more grey than another.
Not really, seems pretty much spot-on to me. The only bit I might query is this :
“The batten will then pass back to the Conservatives”
Probably at some point but the nature of Western democracy is changing, nothing seems to be quite as predictable as was the case previously.
The political crisis in Western democracy appears to be more profound than its inevitable cyclic economic crises. In short bourgeois democracy after a hundred years or more has found to be wanting. What comes next is harder to predict.
You might be right. But I think Labour have weathered thier crisis (capture by the left) Labour I think will over the next 1/2 parliamentary terms try to a) finally put the left in the party to sleep and b) break the link with the unions decisively in order to be one more like the US democrats and decisively the party of UK plc, attempting to forge an alliance between big capital, cultural liberals but with a nationalistic flavour. It will have inbuilt instability in that regard and may be time limited - the cultural liberals and centerist types may lose patience.
The Tories have a problem that relates to the increasing mental quality of right wing politics - it's untethered from it's base and the big capital/small capital link is destroyed. Johnson's destruction of the sensible Tories , the presence of Trussites is their ongoing crisis. Labour will try and capitalise as per the above on this and present as the sensible, moderate party of UK capital. Unless the Tories can get a grip
I quite like this, it pretty much hits the nail on the head imo:
Enjoy your victory, Sir Keir – the really bad news is you’re heading to No 10
I particularly liked this:
Rather than worrying about how they might lose the general election, Labour ought to be worrying about how on earth they can cope with winning it. They will inherit the public finances in a terrible state. Starmer and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, should not be fearful of 1992 or other elections that Labour lost. They should worry about 1929, 1945 and 1964 – elections that Labour won, but after which the party trapped itself by sticking to the economic consensus and defending the value of the pound.
You are right not to be complacent, Keir – because you are going to win.
I suggested recently that Starmer will regret becoming PM - the problems he will face will be massive and he is simply not up for the job imo.
Doing and saying almost nothing whilst enjoying the spectacle of the Tories self-destructing won't be an option when he is PM. Oh how he will look back fondly on those halcyon days when he was just Leader of the Opposition.
He may realise that he is not up to the job 1 year in and let a more progressive leader form a more progressive cabinet and approach but not many leaders (none ever) seem to either realise that or want to give it up however bad they are.
5 years of relief from the tory ****ers will be nice but always hoped for a bit more than that.