Forum search & shortcuts

Sir! Keir! Starmer!
 

Sir! Keir! Starmer!

 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

She is unelected and there is absolutely no reason why her personal opinions about anything should matter other than because people choose to attach some importance to them. I have no idea why

Would this apply to any article from a newspaper columnist ever?

I think the Guardian columnists (Freeland, Rawnsley, Jenkins etc) are fascinating - push for change - change is offered, push back like liberal dopes, then spend the next few years whining about how the Tories are horrific.


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 7:21 am
Posts: 44822
Full Member
 

I read Toynbees books way back when.  She was a leftie with clear ideas and analysis.  Over the decades she moved far away from this and became an apologist for the "centrist" wreckers in the labour party using the most absurd local contortions to reach that position.


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 10:12 am
Posts: 13349
Free Member
 

It’s easy to label it as “corporate” with all the negative implications of that, but the reality is hundreds of small businesses employing millions of folks that will be directly effected by what amounts to huge changes if we were to make them all civil servants

Alternatively there's no profit going out of the system to shareholders. Profits that are rarely re-invested in improvements when push comes to shove. There's usually a lot of talk of doing more with less which in healthcare is a nonsense.


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 4:31 pm
Posts: 44822
Full Member
 

Errmmm- most GPs will be partners not shareholders and there are no profits as such


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 4:41 pm
Posts: 4238
Free Member
 

They take income after expenses. Partners do a lot better than salaried though they have to do more for it - England figs from https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/gp-earnings-and-expenses-estimates/2020-21 (most recent year available):

The estimated average income before tax of GPs in either a General Medical Services or a Primary Medical Services practice was:

£142,000 for contractor GPs [i.e. partners]

£64,900 for salaried GPs

That's not pro-rata so includes part time.

All a long way from Keir. Whatever, this country currently spends in the middle range of Euro counties on health as a proportion of GDP. Less than the higher GDP per capita higher tax northern euro countries. But we pay our doctors relatively highly.


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 5:55 pm
Posts: 44822
Full Member
 

Does that figure for contractor GPs include the money they spend on the practice?  They usually have to buy a share of it and pay for improvements.  I know the contracts have changed over the years but my pal who is a GP told me his loan repayments for his share of the practice was more than his mortgage on a big posh house in a posh town.  Yes he will get the capital back when he retires if he can sell his share but he will not get all the interest back

GPs are well paid - no doubt but why do we have such a shortage of them?

I don't think you are comparing like with like on stating we are in the middle of european spending as GDP for healthcare either


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 6:19 pm
Posts: 4238
Free Member
 

Not me. OECD, see e.g. https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=SHA

Does that figure for contractor GPs include the money they spend on the practice?

No. That's after expenses etc. It's all public. BMA, pulse mag and BMJ careers all use the same figures. GPs aren't badly paid relative to other professions, but medical consultant careers are more attractive and can pay a fair bit more.

There's no shortage of high quality applicants to medical school. Labour's idea is for relatively modest spend expand the number of places on courses to pump out more doctors. I think this is a good idea (my opinion).


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 6:37 pm
Posts: 16211
Free Member
 

£64,900 for salaried GPs

The NHS has to fund NI and pension for salaried staff so the cost is more like £90k.


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 6:37 pm
Posts: 8022
Full Member
 

Wouldnt the salaried staffs NI and pension be paid for by their provider eg normally the GP partners or other organisation?


 
Posted : 18/01/2023 6:40 pm
Posts: 31103
Full Member
Posts: 44822
Full Member
 

Cakeism

He is playing us for fools.  there is no significantly closer relationship available without CU and SM which he rules out and he must know this

He can fiddle around the edges yes.  But he has ruled out anything significant in the way of rapproachment and nothing he suggests will undo the vast bulk of the damage


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 12:28 am
Posts: 31103
Full Member
 

It’s all been said already, many times, but building a closer relationship isn’t a one step process… we have years, if not decades, of doing this. A slow thawing of relationships and stopping the slide of aggressive divergence and barrier building we’re currently still on (that’s far from over under this government). “Snap your fingers and Brexit is all undone” is fantasy politics.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 12:36 am
Posts: 44822
Full Member
 

Yes - and starmer is lying about it.  He is playing us for fools.The man has turned into a hard brexiteer.  He is now against any significant change.  Don't be fooled.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 1:04 am
Posts: 15692
Free Member
 

This is interesting, imo anyway, nearly all the pollsters give Labour more than a 20% lead over the Tories, and have done so for a while. Except for two, Deltapoll and Opinium, both of which give Labour a 14-16% lead over the Tories.

It is considerably less than those heady days back in October when Labour were regularly showing well over a 30% lead over the Tories, but I suspect that under present conditions if a snap election was held right now the result would probably be in the region of Tories 30% Labour 45%.

And that would represent one of the worst general election results ever for the Tories, if not the worst.

https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1614957236408705024


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 1:34 am
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1616198356639907842?t=dWGdmbY9CiXA1cy9YhEYjQ&s=19

Wonder how this will pan out.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 8:52 am
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

Yes – and starmer is lying about it. He is playing us for fools.The man has turned into a hard brexiteer. He is now against any significant change. Don’t be fooled

If it's one thing I've learnt about Starmer is I don't trust him on any position he takes.

He doesn't have a position really.

Depends which way the wind's blowing.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 8:55 am
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

And that would represent one of the worst general election results ever for the Tories, if not the worst.

Different timeframes but I think the Tories are going to claw back some into the Summer.

The magic of inflation and lower interest rates is coming. ("Our independent friends at the BoE are now in a position to lower rates")

Whether it will be enough and the official recession will eventually turn up, who knows. (I believe we're well into one currently but GDP keeps doing these sneaky 0.1% numbers.) Basically no growth which ever way you cut it.

Anyway clearly there's hardly going to be much growth - especially when last year's figures were bolstered by GP spending (i.e government spending.)

Long term I still think the Tories are screwed.

Here in Bassetlaw we just got the 18million levelling up boost. Brendan Clarke-Smith is all over it like a cheap suit.

Imagine having to bid and beg for public money from your own government?


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 9:02 am
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

Here in Bassetlaw we just got the 18million levelling up boost. Brendan Clarke-Smith is all over it like a cheap suit.

https://twitter.com/BassetlawDC/status/1616128179282018304?t=qKIphc_tYT2_ubUQ9cLjXA&s=19

And herein is the problem with bidding and grants - it's seen as a massive victory when you get 50p from the government. Despite decades of disintegration.

Levelling up for the red wall. Wonder if they will build an actual red wall?


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 9:20 am
 MSP
Posts: 15842
Free Member
 

And herein is the problem with bidding and grants – it’s seen as a massive victory when you get 50p from the government. Despite decades of disintegration.

And from what I can see it encourages bids for "shiny show ponies" that ministers can use for photo ops rather than "work horses" that really help regenerate an area.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 9:40 am
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

Exactly.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 9:46 am
Posts: 15692
Free Member
 

Different timeframes but I think the Tories are going to claw back some into the Summer.

Six months ago I would have said that the Tories would claw back much of their support by the time of the general election, but I no longer believe that - imo it will likely be minimal.

The reason is that imo the Tories have become a toxic brand. And Sunak seems to be proving that - he has barely improved the Tories's level of support after taking over from Liz Truss.

The Labour lead throughout Sunak's premiership, and remember this is still supposed to be his "honeymoon period", has been very considerably greater than it was even in the final days of Boris Johnson's dying premiership.

Why is that? The huge collapse in support for the Tories under Liz Truss was fairly understandable, although it still took me by surprise, but why has it barely recovered under Sunak? He hasn't made anything like approaching the blunders that Truss made. And compared to Truss the Tories seem fairly happy with him.

IMO no one could under the current circumstances reverse the Tories's fortunes - after 13 years they have reached their use by date.

Yes I appreciate that inflation will fall so there will be some good news, already it is below the EU average, as is unemployment, but won't be enough to save the Tories devastating rut imo.

Liz Truss sent the Tories into a death spiral which they can't get out of and only several years of Labour governments will correct.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 12:01 pm
Posts: 31103
Full Member
 

Why is that?

Starmer not painting a target on his head, and increasingly presenting his cabinet as a government in waiting not just an opposition.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 12:09 pm
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

Liz Truss sent the Tories into a death spiral which they can’t get out of and only several years of Labour governments will correct.

All I will say they've been on a downward trajectory for some time but things change fast.

Lower inflation, interest rates yet to be seen, possible stave off of recession and some angry migrant stories.

Also, as above sneaky levelling up funds popping up.

Coming into summer will be interesting.

That said they have to fail eventually.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 12:13 pm
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

IMO no one could under the current circumstances reverse the Tories’s fortunes – after 13 years they have reached their use by date

Yeah that's my gut feeling too.

It only takes another crazy Black-Swan event and things could spiral again one way or another.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 12:18 pm
Posts: 15692
Free Member
 

I think you might be exaggerating how much of the Tories's dire situation is down to the state of the economy.

Back in August the Labour lead was mostly in single figures now it is easily double that, I don't think this is because the economic outlook is now so much worse than it was in August.

There are other important factors which come into play, and they tend by even more out of the control of the Tories.

I agree that any perceived improvements in the economy will help them but I think the effect will be fairly minimal. Although time will tell.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 12:28 pm
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

I think you might be exaggerating how much of the Tories’s dire situation is down to the state of the economy.

'Lizz' Truss's whole sinking was based on slightly misunderstood mechanisms of the economy and its consequences - even if her direction was cock-eyed.

And I know you love a good poll.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1616420404863565826?t=s_nTXkYaPnRuDDrGdLF_xA&s=19


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 2:21 pm
Posts: 15692
Free Member
 

Lizz’ Truss’s whole sinking was based on slightly misunderstood mechanisms of the economy and its consequences

The negative reaction to Truss's economic policies came from two different directions - the markets and the voters.

The markets reacted badly to her economic unorthodoxy and voters reacted badly to total injustice of putting money into the pockets of the wealthy during a cost of living crises.

I'm not sure that voters necessarily misunderstood anything - their rejection of trickle down economics seems to have been quite sound imo.

Truss should have learnt the lesson of unfair taxation policies from the downfall of her heroine. She clearly didn't.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 4:28 pm
Posts: 66118
Full Member
 

rone
Full Member

The magic of inflation and lower interest rates is coming. (“Our independent friends at the BoE are now in a position to lower rates”)

Yup, they're already trailing that halving interest rates is going to be celebrated as a gigantic win, it's all going to be sold as "down 5%" not "up 10% and then down 5%". And the cost of living crisis will be "solved" by the sun coming out and heating bills falling


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 6:14 pm
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

The markets reacted badly to her economic unorthodoxy and voters reacted badly to total injustice of putting money into the pockets of the wealthy during a cost of living crises

The markets were over-leveraged (with hedging) in very simple Friday night terms. Fixed very easily with 19bn (not 60bn) BoE regular intervention.

It's as much a problem with that as it was with Trussenomics.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 6:50 pm
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

As an aside watch the US going into total meltdown with their self-imposed debt ceiling. Again.

And then watch it amount to nothing.

Apparently the US government might go bust. Lmfao.

Musk going on about government being a bad business with it's debt. Without government 'debt' (asset swap of government money for interest bearing bonds) there would be no private savings or money for the private sector to manipulate.

These people are crackers.

Government debt is your interest bearing savings, bonds, NS&I etc.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 7:00 pm
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

Sorry, one more interesting thing - as the world economy starts to diversify again and markets stabilise - money is flowing back out of the dollar, and sterling is gaining strength.

People are going back into risk-on assets. So floating currencies are doing their jobs and we have to stop screaming when they move up and down.

I'm not saying modern market economies don't demand some stability and reassurance - but volatility makes people very wealthy.

There are markets for consumers (that don't really work in our interest) and making billions out of markets for the rest of them.


 
Posted : 20/01/2023 7:35 pm
Posts: 44822
Full Member
 

To go back to the nonsense from streeting and Starmer about further privitisation inthe NHS:

the NHS england fake market set up by the tories to allow privitisation costs £4.5 billion a year.  thats £4.5 billion per year NHS england could have for patient care just by eliminating that and costs to eliminate it are low.  This is exactly what the SNP did in Scotland.  remove the fake market with minimal other alterations, leave the organisation pretty much alone after that

Privitisation also cost lives - 500 or so a year

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jun/29/nhs-privatisation-drive-linked-to-rise-in-avoidable-deaths-study-suggests


 
Posted : 26/01/2023 3:48 pm
Posts: 34539
Full Member
Posts: 5830
Full Member
 

The right to roam will be amazing if they put it through.


 
Posted : 27/01/2023 2:37 pm
 MSP
Posts: 15842
Free Member
 

It is a good thing, but it has got to be pretty near the bottom of the list of priorities.


 
Posted : 27/01/2023 2:58 pm
Posts: 31103
Full Member
 

pretty near the bottom of the list of priorities

Labour keep overly tight discipline on policy announcements to keep focus and get message across - "Labour have no policies".

Labour front bencher briefs on what Labour are preparing in his policy area - "the wrong priorities".

As the election draws closer, this is what they risk - "why are Labour talking about that, it doesn't effect me" - but also, if they are to form a government and hit the ground running, they need to have prepared in every policy area. Every one. Most of the policy teams seem to be following a shut up and get on with it strategy, but that approach must end at some point.


 
Posted : 27/01/2023 3:02 pm
Posts: 44822
Full Member
 

Was there not a previous "right to roam" act in England that is so full of restrictions and caveats it was useless?  Also excludes cycling and the current campaign in England excludes cycling

Don't expect anything like the scottish right to roam from this.


 
Posted : 27/01/2023 3:07 pm
Posts: 31103
Full Member
 

Yes, cycling looks to be excluded. Revision for National Parks to go beyond the "pass across/though" limitation of the existing legislation down here seems a small but welcome step. It's not Scottish level access, but the change in the law is needed ASAP to prevent landowners using the law as it currently stands to further limit the public enjoying the great outdoors. This can be done quickly.


 
Posted : 27/01/2023 3:11 pm
Posts: 34539
Full Member
 

Could go in the Brexit thread

but quite interesting

I suspect that were the economy to pick up that bregret might fall, but for now, it explains labour's stance

https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1619998681427763202


 
Posted : 30/01/2023 3:00 pm
Posts: 31103
Full Member
 

Some polling numbers…

https://twitter.com/jmagosh/status/1620108843165552640?s=21


 
Posted : 30/01/2023 7:15 pm
Posts: 5164
Free Member
 

We're over 18 months from an election, and the tories will throw some treats at the voters 6 months out, add to that the reality that a lot of those disapproving are going to vote how they always vote, and it'll not be a huge win for Labour, i'd settle for any win, as this country reminds me so much of the US at times, where Republicans will always vote, no matter the candidate, whereas Democrats tends to be apathetic and not vote when they're not happy, it's the same with the tory voters, they'll whinge, they'll moan, but put them in a voting booth and they'll tick for the tory candidate.


 
Posted : 30/01/2023 7:26 pm
Posts: 255
Full Member
 

Guardian bit

People are clearly changing their minds on Brexit. Whilst the bigoted, selfish and thick old gits who voted for it are unlikely to change their minds, they are dying* and being replaced by young voters strongly in favour of remain/rejoin.

Any labour leader who doesn’t seize the opportunity to appeal to these voters by offering pathways (however long they are) back to the EU is throwing away a generation of party support. It could put the tories of the game for decades.

* I won’t apologise for any of that. If you still support brexit, you’re all those things and more. But mostly the thick bit. And before anyone says “you won’t win them over by calling them names” - I don’t want to. I’m probably, statistically, younger than they are, so I’ll just wait until they’re gone.


 
Posted : 31/01/2023 3:14 am
Poopscoop reacted
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
Posts: 34539
Full Member
 

30p Lee bounce

I'm not sure he can take all the credit

The change is compared to last November, just after Truss's kamikwasi budget


 
Posted : 12/02/2023 7:49 pm
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

Migration has become the thing for both parties to unwelcome now.

30p Lee is their main strategist.

This is how the election will be operated.


 
Posted : 12/02/2023 7:58 pm
Page 384 / 500