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All the models are broken…
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1582039734846574592?s=21
Any other leader would be… er…
Polls are nice, but do you really think that all those true blues will suddenly stop voting, i hear the same stuff every time, 'brexit was a nightmare, but labour would have been worse', 'The way COVID was handled was a nightmare, but labour would have been worse' and so on.
We literally have a lot of people voting tory because they think they align with that party, reality is they tend to want what labour have to offer, but too stubborn or daft to actually look into why and who they vote for, other than the colour of their rosette.
Have no doubt, the next GE will be a real battle, unless we have a horrific couple of years and Truss continues to lead with no real ability, but i just don't see them imploding in the 6 month run up to a GE, it's their bread and butter, roll out the good stuff to line up with the voting polls.
do you really think that all those true blues will suddenly stop voting
No, which is why I said “all the models are broken”, the pollsters simply can’t handle this big a public shift in sentiment away from the party in power and towards the opposition. Despite what any polling is indicating, there are big battles ahead for sure. Starmer has handled a few things right this year though… his slow steady take down of Johnson, the timing of the announcement of what to do about energy this winter, announcing clearly different from Tory but understood to be achievable by the public policies at conference, especially on long term energy and NHS staffing, the vocal and unqualified distain of “trickle down” economics when the government looked to the public to be embracing it… etc.
"Freedom of movement has gone and it's not coming back."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63526167
Are we at the Centrist tipping point yet? (No they're ahead in the polls - do whatever it takes. To know your enemy, you must become your enemy.)
This guy stands for nothing.
Just about the only way back for the Tories now is for this Labour front bench to support the return of FoM. Freedom of movement is coming back, eventually... but make the next election about that issue and you get another five years of Labour farting about on the opposition benches.
Both parties are beating themselves into an unwinnable war, not for the good of the electorate and the economy.
It's not going to matter a jot who wins because they are hairs breadth apart.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1589321059274485763?s=20&t=7utTmTE4UDN6-a4T1rugSg
To get out of this fix - there should be a strong enough argument to challenge anything Tory these days.
FOM isn't coming back and there are too many immigrants in the NHS. Is SKS auditioning to be leader of the Tories?
It’s not going to matter a jot who wins because they are hairs breadth apart.
Not true. But refighting the 2019 election will only go one way for Labour. The next election has to be shamefully parochial for Labour if they are to win... policies based on what we do in Britain... throw in a few "Greats" for the full effect... if they go in on our relationship with Europe and open borders, the Tory team will be thanking their lucky stars. They are working hard to keep immigration top of the news agenda... the know it's their only chance to win the public over. Again.
Yes - he is. He's been on this trajectory for a while - because having some principles and putting stuff out there for the good of the country appears to not be a way forward.
Freedom of movement is coming back, eventually…
Really? Oh...
https://twitter.com/jrc1921/status/1584474401298608130?t=TGeS3ldnT1eEqc6YJfboVA&s=08
So, 'not a great deal between the main parties on immigration'. Starmer favouring a 'points based system', which would inevitably favour certain demographics over others.
To know your enemy, you must become your enemy
Pretty much.
The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Not true. But refighting the 2019 election will only go one way for Labour. The next election has to be shamefully parochial for Labour if they are to win… if they go in on Europe and open borders, the Tory team will be thanking their lucky stars.
I feel your pain BUT when and if they're in power to stay in power they will have to ape the Tories constantly to survive.
Why do you think just because they win they will switch motives? It's not going to happen.
I would be slightly ever so slightly more positive if I could think of one ground-breaking recent Labour sound-bite that is worth fighting for.
(I completely understand why Starmer is doing what he's doing - but he's not giving the left/progressives a whiff of hope.)
Why do you think just because they win they will switch motives?
They won't. They will need to be pushed. Hard. You think campaigners just sit back and think "job done" if we get a Labour PM? They will need to double their efforts to move Labour (and the public), and use the increased distance from the "great democratic event of the mid 00s" to their advantage. But fighting this next election with the Tories having big "Labour favour open borders", "Labour to undo Brexit" flags to wave would be political suicide (in many parts of England).
They won’t. They will need to be pushed. Hard. You think campaigners just sit back and think “job done” if we get a Labour PM. They will need to double their efforts to move Labour, and use the increased distance from the “great democratic event of the mid 00s” to their advantage. Fighting this next election with the Tories having a big “Labour favour open borders” flag to wave would be political suicide.
Then as before shift the narrative to what really is in front of the UK - recession, economic mismangement, cost of living, green stuff.
There's loads to be pushy about.
Your route is doomed to failure becuase Labour are simply being flipped poltically instead of using robust arguments to attain power - of which there are hundreds.
FOM isn’t coming back and there are too many immigrants in the NHS. Is SKS auditioning to be leader of the Tories?
he's not wrong on the first one is he? unless we get back to negotiating table the CU and FOM aren't coming back, and it's a misrepresentation of what he said about the latter. We (in this country) keep the number of university places for doctors artificially low to 8,000 places. Approximately 30,000 students with the right grades applied this year, we're losing GPs at a rate of about 350-500 every year. It's arguably morally wrong to rely on foreign trained doctors to staff the NHS, and at the same time tremendously short-sighted.
he’s not wrong on the first one is he?
According to Kelvin it is - and I dare bet he's not alone in thinking that.
Approximately 30,000 students with the right grades applied this year, we’re losing GPs at a rate of about 350-500 every year. It’s arguably morally wrong to rely on foreign trained doctors to staff the NHS, and at the same time tremendously short-sighted.
It's funny these arguments didn't appear when progressives made a case for FOM. Why now other than Labour feel they've got to ape the Tories?
recession, economic mismangement, cost of living, green stuff
Wise of Labour to focus on all that at their conference then. This "train more NHS staff, a plan for future staffing shouldn't overly rely on recruiting from abroad" line picked on doesn't change any of that.
Why now other than Labour feel they’ve got to ape the Tories?
The policy on NHS staff training isn't one that Labour have stolen from the Tories, is it? I'm hoping that the Tories ape Labour on this one, to be honest. It would be good to feel that whoever wins the next election they have committed to sort out medical training... an issue where consensus and long term planning would be welcome.
Wise of Labour to focus on all that at their conference then. This “train more NHS staff, a plan for future staffing shouldn’t overly rely on recruiting from abroad” line picked on doesn’t change any of that.
They didn't they argued for fiscal responsibilty - and tried to fudge a few morsels in there.
It's a contradiction.
"That is why I set out the fiscal rules for the next Labour government a year ago. Every policy that Labour announces – and every line in our manifesto – will be carefully costed and fully funded." RR.
They will simply not be in a place to fix anything.
will be carefully costed and fully funded
Yes. It will be. Obviously. Just as it was at previous elections.
As NickC says, his comments were about Labours pledge for 6500 more places at university in the UK to keep up with demand, rather than hope we can plunder other countries medically trained people to fill our gaps.
Same with Freedom of Movement, it's gone, i'd hazard a guess that the Labour party know the risks associated with trying to bring it back, and that's driving their choices if they were elected, there's so many questions associated with this, how do you set up the agreement again, what are the costs associated and risks to this, will this then limit the movement of those outside the agreement again, i.e. Rest of the World, etc, etc.
As always, the same faces are making the judgement already about how it's a negative for Labour, instead of looking at the pro's and con's for this entire argument, hell we don't even know what cap rate they have on the points system either at this point, or what Labours plans are for the current immigration nightmare the Tories have created.
This “train more NHS staff, a plan for future staffing shouldn’t overly rely on recruiting from abroad”
British jobs for British workers, then?
Yes. It will be. Obviously. Just as it was at previous elections.
Corbyn's manifesto was torn to shreds even though it was 'fully costed.'
Besides when Labour talk about fully costed - they use stupid maths involving inflation and the like to make up the short fall - like the windfall on energy. They're nowhere near fully costed.
It's a nonsense.
Because you know as well as I the only way to put significant new money into society is to deficit spend.
British jobs for British workers then?
Nope
Its a moral position from other stuff I have heard from the labour party over this and I agree with that. Recruiting overseas nurses and doctors in general ( spain was a special case) and especially from poorer / developing countries damages their healthcare badly as it strips them of staff. One of the carribean islands had to shut its only ITU as 80% of the ITU nurses working on the island were recruited to work in the UK.
We do not train enough doctors and nurses to staff the NHS. We need to be self suficient so as not to strip badly needed healthcare workers from countries that desparatly need them. Post brexit it is worse.
Deficit spend is happening. Unavoidable now. Whoever is in government. The priority on how the money is spent is the battle ground. And that's what the recent "costings" tend to be.... "The Tories would choose to do that, where as we would choose to do this".
As always, the same faces are making the judgement already about how it’s a negative for Labour, instead of looking at the pro’s and con’s for this entire argument, hell we don’t even know what cap rate they have on the points system either at this point, or what Labours plans are for the current immigration nightmare the Tories have created.
That's because Labour aren't putting anything at all out there that I can remotely support.
Also I think it's more cynical than you guys are letting on - it's simply to put Starmer in the mind of the Tory voter with these sound-bites. He's doing it all himself. It doesn't take a punter to look at the pros and cons.
It serves no other purpose.
One in five doctors in the NHS are foreign born, and the vast majority of those come from South Asia (16%) and only 4% come from other EU countries, so FOM within the EU was having almost no effect on GPs/doctors migration.
Deficit spend is happening. Unavoidable now. Whoever is in government. The priority on how the money is spent is the battle ground. And that’s what the recent “costings” tend to be…. “The Tories would choose to do that, where as we would choose to do this”.
Agree to a point.
But no one wants to admit it and run with it, it's at odds with fiscal responsiblity too.
And it's not enough to fix the problems we have.
We do not train enough doctors and nurses to staff the NHS
This. We need a plan to train more.
We need to be self suficient
This will never happen, and healthcare workers moving between countries is necessary and useful to all sides. But trying to use it to fill ALL the current and predicated gaps in the NHS is unsustainable.
put Starmer in the mind of the Tory voter with these sound-bites
People who have voted Tory need to be voting Labour with us come the next election. They need to be encouraged to do so. Efforts to get them onboard are an easy target, even when it is selling them something we should all be able to get behind... training more NHS staff. But those "Tory voters" need to bought on board. They live here as well, remember.
We do not train enough doctors and nurses to staff the NHS. We need to be self suficient so as not to strip badly needed healthcare workers from countries that desparatly need them. Post brexit it is worse.
Don't some healthcare works then go back to their countries with skills to help fix stuff?
there are too many immigrants in the NHS.
I think I've said this on here before.
Chatting with a consultant neighbour the other day, he said pension changes mean lots of 50 - something staff have left the NHS. There is no solution, so government has been recruiting from India and Philippines extensively.
Link that to eastern Europe nurses going home, Covid, stress, etc and it's yet another bit of a mess.
Don’t some healthcare works then go back to their countries with skills to help fix stuff?
Not really. Maybe a few edge cases but most of them settle here. overseas recruitment in the NHS damages overseas healthcare. Well known, well researched and totally abhorrent.
Imagine losing your countries only ITU because the UK took all the nurses. How many folk died?
FOM within the EU was having almost no effect on GPs/doctors migration.
Nurses was very differnt. We took a lot of EU nurses. Spain used to train far more than they needed so spanish nurses often had no job when they finished training. So they came to the UK. Now they do not want to come here after how they are treated and with all the hassle post brexit. We lost a thousand nurses recruited a month to brexit
There is no solution
There is - train more nurses. Its not really the pension changes for nurses - that was doctors. Its that there is an aging workforce in nursing in the UK. this has been known about for a decade or more. the tories because they want to destroy the NHS actually increased the barriers to training nurses
Not really.
Really. Especially in specialisms such as cardiology. Staff moving between, and back and forth between, different countries does help all sides. But we need to be training more staff for the future. Moving between countries will continue no matter what, and it should, but we absolutely need to train more staff here not overly rely on other countries to do so for us.
Nope
Its a moral position from other stuff I have heard from the labour party over this and I agree with that. Recruiting overseas nurses and doctors in general ( spain was a special case) and especially from poorer / developing countries damages their healthcare badly as it strips them of staff. One of the carribean islands had to shut its only ITU as 80% of the ITU nurses working on the island were recruited to work in the UK.
I'd like to read up on that if you have any links. Thanks.
As NickC says, his comments were about Labours pledge for 6500 more places at university in the UK to keep up with demand, rather than hope we can plunder other countries medically trained people to fill our gaps.
Bit what puts many people off training to become a nurse or doctor, are massive student debts. And massive housing costs. This is why it's a lot easier to recruit from abroad, where people don't have such massive debts to repay, so aren't as stretched financially. Labour needs to reverse tuition fees for starters, before we can even think about recruiting more of Our Own™. And I don't see them saying anything about that.....
Yep, improve the foundation of the NHS to make the medical profession more appealing long term, at the same time as increasing recruitment, that will win votes for me, not just making our own (to a point), but improve the whole structure around nursing, doctoring, etc.
Freedom of Movement is an argument for another day, it's just a huge unknown regarding rewards versus risk, especially with all the linked areas, such as immigration and how that will progress if Labour get in.
an argument for another day
Should be the Labour Party's motto right now...
It's an ever decreasing downwards spiral... the NHS in so many areas is tough to work in because of a staffing crisis, which results in people leaving and a failure to recruit... deepening the staffing crises. Papering over the cracks is one thing... but increasing training is the only way to repair the damage caused by the Tories longer term. Oh, and.... BRING BACK THE BURSARY.
Freedom of Movement is an argument for another day
Another decade. One of the reasons that many of us wanted "a second vote" (measure twice, cut once) on Brexit is because the damage it has writ on the UK in just a few years will take decades to repair, decades wasted for the many, especially those entering adulthood during those years of reduced freedoms and opportunities without rich parents behind them.
BRING BACK THE BURSARY
Tower Hamlets is the only borough in the UK to have reintroduced the Educational Maintenance Allowance (EMA) and university bursaries to enable young people to go to university. Problem is, Tower Hamlets is led by Mayor Lutfur Rahman, which the Labour right tried smearing several years ago, yet still failed to prevent him from returning to local politics (mainly because most people in TH now hate the Labour party anyway, and understandably, given all they did when in power there was sell off loads of public buildings and land, enable massive corporations to set up there unopposed, and generally failed to address local needs). So, that's one, extremely deprived borough, leading the way. A bit embarrassing really.
which the Labour right tried smearing several years ago
You mean he was found guilty of electoral fraud?
There is – train more nurses.
The bursary for nurses training used to be £10,000 back in 2016, it was cut by George Osborne and was only recently re-introduced (2020 I thnk) at £5,000 and there's another £1000 is your training is in (for example) mental health, Training to be a nurse is now a complex degree course with a low starting salary (and a couple of years of effectively zero pay rise) and years of on the job training, so massive amounts of vacancies, unsurprisingly. No wonder trusts are recruiting overseas.
We need to be self suficient so as not to strip badly needed healthcare workers from countries that desparatly need them.
So, don't steal the nurses and doctors then, just the scientists and the other high-tech specialists that will, apparently, be given priority?
Are there any countries around the world who don't prioritise highly-educated workers in their immigration policies? I'm not saying it's right to do so, but even a casual glance at say; any EU or Canada (randomly) will give you extra points for your immigration status if you're an engineer, or scientist.
I've seen adverts today inviting medics to western Australia (pretty good service to work for I hear).
Sure, but it rather blows apart the moral argument when, for instance, you're prepared to attract the engineers working on clean water supplies but not the doctors and nurses who might have to treat those suffering through the use of dirty water.