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I know that the current situation makes that impossible to imagine but things can change remarkably quick in politics. It very much depends on how discredited in the eyes of the public the established parties become and the vacuum it leaves. Plus of course whether the far-right or left fill it.
For sure.
I think one of the hardest things to analyse in politics is what's coming next and where we are on that trajectory.
I'm utterly convinced a sea change will occur. I know the establishment doing the same process is favoured hence the shift rightwards of the parties - but covid demanded a social response or there would have been no consumers.
On the one hand we haven't learnt much expecting things to return to normal on the other normal simply hasn't finished being defined yet.
The sea change has already occurred... we're dealing with the fallout now. It just wasn't a step towards a more equal and open country for ordinary people... quite the opposite. That needs turning around. It'll take decades though... people need to realise that there is no quick fix, and stop with the fantasy politics. There are several parliamentary terms ahead of just stopping the slide, rebuilding international relationships, and fixing the services and protections that we expect and take for granted from the UK state but are very much at risk of being taken from us.
^^^
yeah but that's boring
The sea change has already occurred…
Nothing has changed. We still live under a system of financialised capitalism where money flows upwards and the rich and powerful are unaccountable to the people. That's the change that needs to happen. The alternative is accelerating chaos, economic collapse and ultimately social breakdown. We either change the system back to something where power is accountable and wealth is more equally shared, or continue the descent on the downward spiral.
Nothing has changed.
You are very wrong. Most people can't see it because we're in it, but looking back on these decades from the future it'll be obvious what we did... what we did to ourselves. If you mean nothing has changed for the better, then I can agree with you. The UK has changed, in a way that can not be reversed. It'll take decades to improve our position, if we ever do, but there is no way back.
The UK has changed, in a way that can not be reversed.
Presume we're talking about brexit again? Whether in the EU or not, the economic and political system is still much the same as it was before. As Ernie says above though, now that we're out of the EU there is an opportunity to change that. What we need is a political party which is prepared to campaign on and implement that change.
Whether in the EU or not
The UK is not a self contained bubble. The changes of recent years haven't make it one. If you think that all that has happened since 2016 is that we left the EU, then I'm surprised. Brexit enabled far more than us rescinding our membership of the EU. If you're outside the UK that's already obvious. We're too close to the change that has occurred, and our own internal reporting and analysis of it.
exit enabled far more than us rescinding our membership of the EU. If you’re outside the UK that’s already obvious. We’re too close to it, and our own reporting of it.
our economy weakened by Brexit makes it harder to fix many of the problems & with the checks & balances of EU membership (& soon to be ECHR?) gone we are much more vulnerable to hard right policies
brexit could have been handled much better , but the benefits are the stuff of fantasy
The UK is not a self contained bubble. The changes of recent years haven’t make it one.
I never said it was. If we choose to change our economic system to a modern version of what came before 1979 then we would still trade and have relations with other countries. The difference is that now we can now make that change where arguably we couldn't before.
our economy weakened by Brexit makes it harder to fix many of the problems
Does it? Most of the economic problems - inflation, low pay, insecure work, low growth - can be solved by action the UK govt alone could make. If you're arguing that it can't then that raises some much bigger issues which go beyond brexit.
Most of the economic problems – inflation, low pay, insecure work, low growth – can be solved by action the UK govt alone could make. If you’re arguing that it can’t then that raises some much bigger issues which go beyond brexit.
I'm in this camp.
Too much is made of Brexit related issues whilst not recognising the wider global picture; and at the same time the UK macro-economic picture.
Brexit was always tangible for people to debate about - the drive of capitalism and the way the sovereign state operates within that much more tricky to break apart into what is working and what isn't. So we don't have the same lines drawn.
People accept market forces as a necessary driving model rather than being critical about the direction we were headed in - in or out of the EU.
Said before, but if previous governments had looked after the UK in a progressive and substantial way and specifically the red wall type areas - we might not be having the Brexit conversation.
You know when Labour paved the way for austerity - there's no money left, that was the tipping point.
Economics 101 starts with your own government's spending and investment.
Most of the economic problems – inflation, low pay, insecure work, low growth – can be solved by action the UK govt alone could make.
which countries do you have in mind where this has been done? Some examples of where this has been done successfully would be interesting to see. (Really.)
the drive of capitalism and the way the sovereign state operates
Psst... that's what Brexit was for... it might not be why people voted for it, quite the opposite... but all the interests pushing for Brexit wanted a weaker UK state at the mercy of international capitalism... at the expense of workers rights and quality of life, and the operations of SMEs... which is what they got. Starmer can change how the UK government responds to that. Sooner rather than later I hope. Would still like him to be replaced... but Starmer within 12 months will do rather than waiting for 2024/25 and the distant hope that Labour switch out their Labour before we get there (I don't imagine for a moment they will... so lack lustre but a step in the right direction is what we're stuck with).
Psst… that’s what Brexit was for… it might not be why people voted for it, quite the opposite… but all the interests pushing for Brexit wanted a weaker UK at the mercy of international capitalism… at the expense of workers rights and the operations of SMEs… which is what they got.
Well given we have enjoyed a state controlled central bank since 1946 and the £££, it's not even debatable!
which countries do you have in mind where this has been done? Some examples of where this has been done successfully would be interesting to see. (Really.)
Japan would be a great example. They don't rely on imports as much as we do.
(Very few countries can control inflation currently due to similar approaches to a complex situation - but that's because the type of inflation is multifaceted. But it will probably start to settle down soon. )
Most of the economic problems – inflation, low pay, insecure work, low growth – can be solved by action the UK govt alone could make.
Inflation is supply driven at the moment so not a specific UK problem but not one the UK government can sort.
Low pay - well yes and no. You can’t just raise a the minimum wage and hope. If the job being done isn’t worth what people are willing to do it for it won’t get done - whatever the minimum wage, see fruit picking etc. You have to create jobs that pay well and a workforce capable of doing them - sadly the Brexit immigration policy probably works against that, creating inflation and unfilled jobs.
Insecure work - the Brexies want to make work less secure not more secure. Possible, but not going to happen.
Low growth - now this really is at the heart of Brexit. Less international trade means less growth )ie fewer jobs for folk making things or selling services) and Brexit has really hit our trading relationships, particularly for smaller companies. You can not unilaterally set up new deals, you new other countries to play, and it takes a very long time. We have got a few minor deals, and rolled most of the EU deals over - but we really lost here.
Nevermind, in a hundred years or so it won’t matter anymore.
Japan would be a great example.
eh? wrt
inflation, low pay, insecure work,
really?
Japan would be a great example.
Google “japan stagflation” or “Japan’s lost decade” of which there were at least two I think.
Inflation is supply driven at the moment so not a specific UK problem but not one the UK government can sort.
But they can sit on the BoE and tell them to stop making money more expensive - by sacking the lot of them for gross incompetence.
You know that might help reduce the chance of a down-turn.
It's a fact they can't control so easily this type of inflation but reliance on just in time supplies from overseas was a breeding ground. That's a definite direction that the government created by 'encouraging' a cheap import base.
Google “japan stagflation” or “Japan’s lost decade” of which there were at least two I think.
So modern capitalist economies have ups and downs?
Japan's most recent CPI is 2.2% (I know they've had years of trying to hit 2% and being negative) And I also know this creates other problems.
Inflation is supply driven at the moment so not a specific UK problem but not one the UK government can sort.
But the govt can mitigate the impact of inflation even if they can't solve it themselves. They can also implement targeted actions such as price controls to prevent rampant profiteering, and if necessary bring strategic industries/companies into full or part public ownership to protect the strategic interests of the UK and its citizens. This is all easily do-able, but it requires us to break free from the neo-liberal straitjacket.
But the govt can mitigate the impact of inflation even if they can’t solve it themselves.
That genuinely made me smile because it is so true and yet you never hear anyone actually say it.
The "solution" is always to make ordinary people suffer for the economic mess which they didn't create and with complete disregard for the misery and suffering these "difficult decisions" cause.
If we'd got the government so many of us voted for at the last general election, then I'm sure the effect of inflation on ordinary people would have been a higher priority for government. It's just a shame that so many other people didn't vote for that possible government.
targeted actions such as price controls
Like the energy one. Which drove companies out of business, which (because we couldn’t just turn people off when their supplier went bust) led to costs that needed to be recovered to enable continuity, which ultimately raised prices to customers?
That sort of price control?
It’s not always simple and unintended consequences are plentiful.
ordinary people suffer for the economic mess which they didn’t create
Of course 52% of ordinary citizens did help create at least part of this economic mess.
But they can sit on the BoE and tell them to stop making money more expensive – by sacking the lot of them for gross incompetence.
Isn’t that exactly the opposite of how one controls inflation?
If money’s cheap folk spend more, demand and prices rise - inflation.
The QA problem.
Like the energy one. Which drove companies out of business
Which is why we need some form of nationalisation of energy. If the private companies can't stay in business without government support, then it stands to reason that the goverment should step in as the supplier of last resort. I think we can all agree that spiralling energy prices are a very bad thing. Are we really going to shrug our shoulders and pretend nothing can be done because it would break with neo-liberal market dogma?
Isn’t that exactly the opposite of how one controls inflation?
If money’s cheap folk spend more, demand and prices rise – inflation.
The QA problem
.
No! Because this inflation is not being driven by the too much money part of the equation!
There isn't one type of inflation, and this inflation is mostly driven by supply-side. Not demand.
I do have some recent research on this, let me see if I can find it
Of course 52% of ordinary citizens did help create at least part of this economic mess.
Nope
The QA problem
I'm with Rone on this. What he said. And not what Rees-Mogg said today. Of course, Rees-Mogg is part of the "restrict the spending power of peasants" crowd, despite being responsible for some of the increased supply side costs implementing polices he personally claimed would have the opposite effect and lower prices.
I mean if it was too much money kicking around our growth wouldn't be slowing would it?
So many commentators on LBC talking cobblers about inflation and related metrics. One bloke was a self confessed deficit hawk and says we need to balance the books again as debt as a percentage of GDP was scary. Tool. Must have been reading the spectator. They're always going on about debt as percentage of GDP - particularly the lamentable Kate Andrews.
The OBR are whining on about debt/GDP in 50 years or some shit. You know who set up the OBR - George Osborne. When a countries GDP slows or moves into recession government 'debt' tends to rise because the economy is not generating and governments have to spend so the public sector can grow again and pass money into the private sector.
Nothing wrong with that. As long as you can eventually get your private sector moving and generate jobs and growth. Oh.
Saw this gem today from Austin.
https://twitter.com/LordIanAustin/status/1545154032980922368?t=9Uc5wz0UwAT0F9d46cQhqg&s=19
Austin was rewarded by Johnson.
There isn’t one type of inflation, and this inflation is mostly driven by supply-side. Not demand
Pandemic, sanctions and grain shortages.
Saw this gem today from Austin.
Ian Austin is truly remarkable. His ability to twist the truth and tell downright lies is quite exceptional, which presumably is why the Daily Mail pay him to write for them:
https://www.****/debate/article-10928651/IAN-AUSTIN-quitting-best-thing-Sir-Keir-help-Labour.html
In that ^^ article he makes the claim that Keir Starmer is a bit of a lefty who can't be trusted, is it any wonder that he had a problem with Corbyn?
But for me the scary thing is how he was allowed to remain in the Labour Party and have the Labour whip right up until the day that he himself decided to leave the party, for which the Tories rewarded him with a peerage.
It would appear that it is impossible to be too right-wing for today's Labour Party, it simply won't get you thrown out. But God help you if you have any left-wing views which the current leader doesn't approve of.
Same as Kate Hoey. Both with lovely new Jobs for life from Boris Johnson. Brexit dividends.
There is something particularly grating for me about Austin. I suppose it was what Ernie says - he was allowed to act like that.
Why on earth did he ever join the Labour party? His values are so confused - he doesn't have a sparkling record on expenses either. He also had that oddball 'mainstream' party.
And like John Mann - Austin's attitude towards removing anti-Semitism from the party was so hysterical and way ahead of anything else you might campaign for such as poverty or Islamaphobia for arguments sake.
Also like John Mann he got a peerage from the Tories.
(John Mann's missus Jo White is standing for candidate in Bassetlaw and she's making all the right noises for me as far as it goes. But I can't get past the relationship with Mann!)
https://twitter.com/CllrJoWhite/status/1545156154594103299?t=mR4FrsOfqtrLq6I_woyvMQ&s=19
I even quite like the slogan Traditional Values in a Modern Bassetlaw as long as traditional values doesn't mean chasing out foreigners with a pitchfork.
But I would take anything - anything over Brendan-Clarke-Cock-Smith at the moment. Anything, a lamp post?
BBC News - UK government debt on unsustainable path unless taxes hiked, says OBR
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62079052
The OBR need chucking in a bin. They're an utter menace. Government spending needs to increase, not taxation. The economy is not overheating so there is no logic to tax more.
Which bit about government debt is unsustainable?
(This is not the same as recognising there are huge problems with the economy looming.)
Interesting US inflation summary.
https://ritholtz.com/2022/06/revisiting-peak-inflation/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
three major drivers of inflation — Automobiles, Homes & Wages
I know nothing about the US economy but is it surprising that they might have had issues if they are still driving automobiles? They need to ditch the starting handles and start driving modern cars!
And the article claims that an increasing number of layoffs suggests a reduced ability to demand higher wages. So we are presumably back to cutting people's purchasing power to tackle both demand and business costs.
Unless of course "a reduced ability to demand higher wages" refers to a reduced ability to demand wages higher than the rate of inflation, the article doesn't specify, which isn't particularly helpful.
I know nothing about the US economy but is it surprising that they might have had issues if they are still driving automobiles? They need to ditch the starting handles and start driving modern cars!
Well yeah and they sold off all the rental stock too in the pandemic.
Unless of course “a reduced ability to demand higher wages” refers to a reduced ability to demand wages higher than the rate of inflation, the article doesn’t specify, which isn’t particularly helpful.
I think wages (especially very high wages) do play a part in inflation just not a huge factor for the current type of inflation.
I just think it's an observation that the down turn in the economy and poorly paid jobs will of course play it's part in taking demand away.
Starmer and Rayner not fined. Still, expect false equivalency with Johnson on a few front pages tomorrow.
Good.
Ha!
That's pretty impeccable timing!