Constriants? Serco's £37bn plus £4.7bn to fraudasters plus PPE spaffing doesn't seem to have caused a problem for them but they're about to cause lots of problems for us. Concerns about printing money is so George Osborne and even he admitted it was a fraud.
There is a lot of confusion about printing money.
First - they don't print money - they issue money digitally through the consolidated fund (an arm of the BoE). Simplified, this is new money creation that is for central government services
Second - it has been this way since the early 70s.
Third - 'Printing' money does not create inflation. The money doesn't enter the economy all at once and some of it doesn't end up being spent straight away. For instance in the pandemic - furlough replaced lost income. Replaced.
Fourth - the 'borrowing' (bond issuance) happens after the new money is created and is matched to the government spend to effectively drain the private sector of cash (as the public sector is feeding new cash in.)
This is done via bond issuance and effectively becomes running account of all the money spent into the economy. Stupidly it's called the national debt. It's not a debt, it's an asset swap between the private sector and the Treasury.
These bonds are often purchased back by the BoE through new money creation by a system called Q/E. Inflation has largely remained at 2% until now despite £895 billion of Q/E. Yep, the BoE own a third of the national debt. Is this a problem for now or future generations? No.
Fifth - this borrowing doesn't actually need to happen at all. Modern governments with central banks have been performing bond issuance for a long time without any sort of real logic that couldn't be constrained with other fiscal levers.
Sixth. All historical hyperinflation can be traced back to economies that have had massive economic shocks. The economies were already baulked. And then they try and dig their way out of it by 'printing' money. This is not the same as sovereign governments like the UK, USA, AUS etc issuing new money for government spending.
Seventh. Current inflation looks to be all created by supply-side shocks. And, just-in-time supply chains which have been massively damaged by the Pandemic and Brexit.
It's foolish to talk about printing money without acknowledging this is how sovereign governments control their finances; not just recently but since the early 70s.
Governments don't rely on tax take for spending otherwise the system wouldn't work at all. Money has to be issued first so you can pay your taxes after.
The constraint is never money - it's real resources.
Oh and finally when it comes to the military you can see MMT in action.
There is never a restriction on all sides of the pond.
The restrictions to spending only seem appear when it's about progressing society.
Forgot to mention - Q/E does have lots of problems in terms of liquidity going to the wrong places but that's for another discussion.
The point is massive amounts of Q/E didn't affect CPI.
I know it's two weeks old but I've only just seen this London wide poll which gives Labour an eye-watering 32% lead over the Tories.
According to the poll for every Tory voter in London there are more than two Labour voters.
With a population larger than those of Scotland and Wales combined perhaps it's time to consider an independence referendum?
I have long thought London should join up with Scotland when we become independent. We could organise some kind of West Berlin style airbridge. Whitehall and Westminster akin to Vatican City - except with more Russian money.
I know it’s two weeks old but I’ve only just seen this London wide poll which gives Labour an eye-watering 32% lead over the Tories.
Meanwhile in Manchester labour are losing votes (a lot of them!)..
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=TYtACdVpkVamDchfBh9p_g
Meanwhile in Manchester labour are losing votes (a lot of them!)..
I doubt the labour administration is panicking about their majority
We could organise some kind of West Berlin style airbridge.
would the plane get off the ground encumbered with the weight of your moral superiority?
I won't be in the plane silly! This is based on EU referendum results where London matched Scotland. Form a super state and rejoin the EU.
I doubt the labour administration is panicking about their majority
Which is probably a good explanation as to why they're losing votes. Labour in Manchester think they have a birthright to people's votes. This shows they don't.
Which is probably a good explanation as to why they’re losing votes
Also a black councillor accusing Labour of racism and resigning her seat probably didn't do the Labour vote any wonders.
Starmer doesn't seem to be too preoccupied with racism, or islamophobia, within the Labour Party.
Unless it's "racism" against Israel of course.
I know it’s two weeks old but I’ve only just seen this London wide poll which gives Labour an eye-watering 32% lead over the Tories.
Go Starmer. What are those key things he has done to cause that?
I doubt the labour administration is panicking about their majority
That's how they used to act in Bristol. The Greens are now the largest party.
I have to admit, I care not one jot about council seats, or even whole councils, falling to the Greens or LibDems. And I would actively cheer if we get more Green and LibDem MPs at the next election. I just want Labour to be forming a UK government, not the Conservatives. I want to see a Labour PM. If Starmer can play his part in making that happen, bring it on. That's still a big if, but I'm less sceptical than I was only a few weeks ago.
dont knows still a large chunk but its improving
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1489554421344354304
not that all of that translates into electability, charisma & emotion play a big part
Yeah the poll on trusting Labour on the economy is a good one.
The idea that the Tories are good with the economy is as much as a myth as Keyser Söze. This has always been stolen from Labour who have to spend the make the economy robust and work for all. (They've always been on the wrong side of the argument and not defended their spending enough - filling people with fears that they will somehow pay for national debt. FFS)
If we were actually talking budget surpluses - the Tories own measure of a good economy (bollocks) then they achieved that I think was 89 which was then followed by recession.
You shrink the state you shrink the economy.
In fact I'm not actually sure genuinely what the Tories are good at apart from getting the electorate to vote for them.
What are those key things he has done to cause that?
I agree, it's hard to fathom. Especially as it does not appear to be replicated to that degree in Northern cities.
For Labour to be showing a 32% lead over the Tories in London at the same time that nationally their lead is mostly in single figures suggests they are not polling so well at all in other areas.
With a population of almost 9 million London is a reasonably large chunk of the UK electorate and consequently has a fairly significant effect on the UK average.
Especially it does not appear to be replicated to that degree in Northern cities.
Are you sure? All polling I've seen this year so far has suggested Labour could be taking back seats from the Tories up here, and increasing their already high support in all the big cities.
Yeah I haven't seen any polls taken in Northern cities showing 32% leads or thereabouts for Labour. I'm to see evidence though. Which would beg the question why such a much smaller lead nationally.
An example seat projection...
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
with pretty mapping...
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/dynamicmap.html
In fact I’m not actually sure genuinely what the Tories are good at apart from getting the electorate to vote for them.
Never truer words spoken.
Mind you Labour have a knack for making it easy for them.
An example seat projection…
Not really evidence of huge Labour leads comparable with London though.
And remember London twice elected Johnson as mayor.
Yeah I haven’t seen any polls taken in Northern cities...
True enough. But don't confuse "the North" with "Northern Cities"... Labour support is huge in the cities, but not outside them... just like in the South East. We're not that different up here really.
And remember London twice elected Johnson as mayor.
The conman long lost his sheen for many London voters.
They don't count the Labour vote in Manchester, they weigh it.
I see where you're coming from ernie, you're thinking could Labour take the vote in cities like Manchester for granted in the same way as they did in the red wall towns?
The answer's no. Life in the Northern cities is pretty good. As a nation we seem to be stagnating but you wouldn't notice it if you lived in one of the major northern conurbations. They've seen decades of ongoing investments, improvements and population growth, they even rode out the economic crash better than everywhere else as well.
I can't see a way for the Tories to sow any seeds of dissafection here. The Northern cities don't need levelling up with the South, the northern towns need levelling up with the northern cities.
The conman long lost his sheen for many London voters.
I think his support in London when he was mayor has always been exaggerated. The first time he won by 6% and the second time by 3%.
Sure, clear wins, but certainly not overwhelming wins, as he undoubtedly would like to have them portrayed as. And to achieve those win the Tories had make a huge concerted effort to mobilise and get out their vote in the affluent leafy suburbs.
They don’t count the Labour vote in Manchester, they weigh it.
The Northern cities don’t need levelling up with the South, the northern towns need levelling up with the northern cities.
Indeed. It's the satellite towns that have been absolutely starved of investment for decades. A lot are now absolutely grim!
The Metro Mayoral election results are pretty telling. Andy Burnham got 70% of the vote in Manchester. I think Steve Rotheram got not far from that in Liverpool.
The answer’s no. Life in the Northern cities is pretty good.
WTF are you talking about? Lots of shiny skyscrapers doesn't mean 'life is pretty good'. I guess you don't notice the homeless everywhere and the poverty that exists once you're outside the sterilised shopping zone. Manchester is a classic example of polishing a turd. The labour council are very effective at making it look as if all is clean, shiny and happy, largely by removing any undesirables from sight, but scratch the surface and you soon see the real deprivation.
you’re thinking could Labour take the vote in cities like Manchester for granted in the same way as they did in the red wall towns?
I'm not thinking anything other than that stunning 32% Labour lead in London according to the YouGov poll is remarkable. Especially when you consider how that isn't the situation throughout the UK and especially that whilst London is Labour territory it's not as solid as other UK Labour cities, as Johnson's previous mayoral wins prove.
And yet most of Cornwall remains resolutely blue. If only we could unlock that paradox of oxymorons.
If Cornwall had big cities... then maybe they'd have red hotspots as well. As it stands... we REALLY need the LibDems to sort their **** out ready to return some MPs from Cornwall at the next election.
🤞🏻
Their leader is doing a good job. According to Pointless a couple of days ago only 7% of people recognised a photo of whatshisname the LibDem leader.
Surprised it wasn't a pointless answer. Their membership picked poorly.
To be fair thanks to Nick Clegg they had a very limited choice.
Anythings got to be an improvement on the demented nursery teacher though
Agreed, and agreed.
Cornwall was approx 56 - 44 in favour of Brexit and the Lib Dems are still pretty much associated with their reluctance to honour the vote.
The only thing that might go in their favour is that Brexit has already been pretty hard on Cornwall - the fishermen have suffered exactly how Remain forecasted and the region is only receiving £3m from the UK govt in grants compared to the £100m that the EU were offering.
So with that and the present Tory fiasco, maybe there's hope that the LDs can make a dent.
Manchester is a classic example of polishing a turd. The labour council are very effective at making it look as if all is clean, shiny and happy, largely by removing any undesirables from sight, but scratch the surface and you soon see the real deprivation
I've stayed in a Manchester a few times for courses. It's quite an eye opener, we usually go for a bit of a pub crawl. The stark contrast in a very short distance on foot is very noticeable.
Amazing how quickly the price of a pint changes too.
dazh,
Everything you say is correct, as was everything I said. Two realities can coexist and the truth is that for the overwhelming majority of Mancunians life has improved significantly year on year for nearly 3 decades. I live in an ex council flat 200 yards from the cluster of shiny skyscrapers and have done for many years, I'm just going by what I've seen change in front of my eyes during that time.
That doesn't mean that I don't recognise the issue with homelesness, the lack of provision of social housing that should have been attached to the developments, the lack of facilities for families, doctors and dentists etc and the pressures upon local residents as rents rise as their previously down at heel neighbourhood has become a nicer and more desirable place to live.
But I also see the confidence in people's faces, In the working class estate below me, where once there were half a dozen cars parked there are now a dozen. When I cycle through Ordsall I no longer get missiles thrown at me and again, the people look happier.
I'm as cynical as hell about the plastic urbanites inhabiting the shiny glass towers but in truth I'm an old git and this place is buzzing.
"whilst London is Labour territory it’s not as solid as other UK Labour cities, as Johnson’s previous mayoral wins prove."
I wouldn't read too much into his mayoral win in London. Londoners see the role as administrative and largely ceremonial and Johnson was the mascot for the moment. When he showed his true colours Londoners despised him.
Let's hope he has a similar effect on the red wall voters, who perhaps now will see him for who he is and how little he has their interests at heart.
The split isn't North / south, its city / non city (as opposed to just rural). The hinteralnds get more conservative as the young leave to repopulate the cities and the towns often wither on the vine. If the populations of London and Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool etc were to vote ideologically there would be an enormous turn ot for the Lib Dems. They turn out for Laboor in such numbers because they are politically at war with the countryside.
Londoners see the role as administrative and largely ceremonial
I don't know any Londoner who thinks that. The GLA budget is huge, and the mayor is responsible for it. The London mayor is elected by the largest constituency in the UK, and with it comes more devolved power than any other individual.
Johnson "showed his true colours" before he chucked the job in so that he could return to parliament and make his bid to become PM, he was still elected twice, in an area that is naturally Labour territory.
I'm not reading too much at all.
Yes, the GLA budget is huge, spending it is an administrative job and the broader public perception is that he spent it all on cycle lanes (I know, I know, truth and all that). It's not right / left politics as we know it in Westminster.
He may have shown his true colours long before he kicked in the job but that was after he'd been elected to a second term, when he was still the bumbling mascot from HIGNFY. Then he turned and Londeners despised him. Are you suggesting that they would have still voted for him as mayor had he stood on a pro Brexit platform? Because that's how I read what you're saying.
And how much ratepayers' money for giving the ferret a run with a dumpling?
Bill, based on GLC support for Arcuri it's about £120k.
Are you suggesting that they would have still voted for him as mayor had he stood on a pro Brexit platform? Because that’s how I read what you’re saying.
Wow that's quite a leap you have managed to make there.
It's hard to imagine that Johnson would have backed brexit if he had remained London mayor. His decision to back Leave just before the start of the Referendum campaign was clearly a cynical ploy to enhance his chances to become leader of the Tory Party, or would you suggest otherwise?
And Johnson's second term was not significantly different to his first term.
I see no reason to assume that Labour's 32% alleged current lead over the Tories in London has anything to do with how he preformed as mayor of London.
