As I don’t live under a rock
You sure about that? Seeing as one of their editors is regularly on the news as a contributor, a panellist on Question Time and other current affairs debate programmes, and has a massive social media presence (to the point where her attending a wedding was trending on twitter), I think you haven't been paying much attention.
Aside from that though, seeing as the tories have an unassailable advantage in the print media and television, labour's only real option is social media. This is where the likes of Novara are most effective, but Starmer and his supporters seem hell-bent on destroying whatever impact that has rather than amplifying it.
Novara media do great stuff. Well put together - and hard to argue with (maybe some macroeconomic caveats.)
Their Covid journalism has been tireless.
Not sure why anyone on the left would push against them.
You sure about that? Seeing as one of their editors is regularly on the news as a contributor, a panellist on Question Time and other current affairs debate programmes, and has a massive social media presence (to the point where her attending a wedding was trending on twitter), I think you haven’t been paying much attention.
Might be the case for people who use Facebook/Twitter or watch QT, but it would be a mistake to believe that anyone who doesn't is ill informed.
I think the catchy name might provide a clue to the lack of awareness from the wider public who weren't taught an extinct language in grammar school.
Reminds me of Kilroy-Silk's Veritas which Kilroy-Silk felt would appeal to the masses. After all why would anyone not trust a political party whose name meant truth in Latin?
Not that I would compare Novara's hipster marxism with Veritas's right-wing populism of course.
and has a massive social media presence
In order to preserve what's left of my sanity, I'm getting rid of more and more of the social media that I look at, and I'm pretty much down to friends nd family on insta and this site now.
Getting there, 19 pts to go!
fieldwork was done mostly before paterson story too
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1457658417678532608
and b4 anyone points it out Greens tend to be a gateway drug to Labour, in the way BXP/UKIP is to the tories
https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1451492846817660931
and b4 anyone points it out Greens tend to be a gateway drug to Labour, in the way BXP/UKIP is to the tories
I think that's highly questionable given the surge in green polling is driven by the failure of Starmer to stick to his promises. Had it been a result of the Greens doing something amazing or being more visible I'd agree, but it's not is it. Or does the labour party arrogantly expect the greens to step aside as they did last time?
I think that’s highly questionable given the surge in green polling is driven by the failure of Starmer to stick to his promise
C'mon dazh admit that youd swallow your pride and vote big K if it meant getting the Tories out
In the same way those leftes disillusioned with corbyn voted for him last time
Had it been a result of the Greens doing something amazing or being more visible I’d agree, but it’s not is it
Maybe the COP26 farce got some people thinking?
C’mon dazh admit that youd swallow your pride and vote big K if it meant getting the Tories out
I think you massively underestimate just how much Starmer has alienated people like myself. He offers nothing but more of the same. If you want more evidence of that see his comments yesterday about HoL reform.
And then there's stuff like this to hammer home the point. Akehurst may be irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, but he and the likes of Wes 'up to the knees in blood' Streeting are the people at the vanguad of wherever Starmer is heading.
https://twitter.com/lukeakehurst/status/1457373443062648844?s=20
and b4 anyone points it out Greens tend to be a gateway drug to Labour, in the way BXP/UKIP is to the tories
So the level of support for Greens in that opinion poll shouldn't taken too seriously because it is likely to go to Labour in a general election?
Basically what you are saying is ignore the bits of the opinion poll that you don't like and just focus on the bits that you like.
What is interesting about that opinion poll isn't simply that it puts support for the Greens in double figures but it actually puts them ahead of the LibDems.
It's interesting because the likelihood of that happening in the next general election is almost nil.
But apart from that, yeah, it's great news for Labour. That's the second opinion poll since last January which gives them a 1% lead over the Tories.
C’mon dazh admit that youd swallow your pride and vote big K if it meant getting the Tories out
I suspect most politically engaged lefties would hold their nose and vote Starmer if they really had to. The bigger risk is that less politically engaged people don't vote at all.
Well, not entirely unpredictable. The Tories have seen their poll lead steadily eroded since about May
I suspect most politically engaged lefties would hold their nose and vote Starmer
It's the very opposite. The politically engaged can see that Starmer offers nothing different to the tories so conclude there's no point in voting for him. That's why the green vote has increased as it has.
and b4 anyone points it out Greens tend to be a gateway drug to Labour, in the way BXP/UKIP is to the tories
It shows that Labour won't win without the left vote.
It could also just be the COP26 is in the headlines day in and day out.
I suspect most politically engaged lefties would hold their nose and vote Starmer if they really had to
I wouldn't. There's no point. We'd just have exactly the same shit as we've got now. Starmer doesn't speak for anyone but wealthy neoliberals and corporate interests. So absolutely no different to the tories.
Yep me too.
"Competent" Neoliberals with no plan of attack is not a path to sorting stuff out - like the centre genuinely believe.
Tories will bin Johnson once he's deemed unpopular. That will sort their problems out.
It's basically lose or lose.
fieldwork was done mostly before paterson story too
I've just checked and there has been another 3 national opinion polls since that IpsosMORI poll.
They were from Opinium, Deltapoll, and YouGov.
All 3 of them did their fieldwork after the Paterson vote in parliament, and all three of them show a Tory lead.
Admitted a small Tory lead but obviously not smaller than 1%
There’s no point. We’d just have exactly the same shit as we’ve got now
While I am no fan of Starmer I don't believe if a Labour party were in power we would have exactly the same shit as now. Similar shit but different enough to be better even if very far from ideal.
It shows that Labour won’t win without the left vote.
This has always been true.
And it also won't win without people who aren't on the left.
As it happens, I think it has zero chance of getting a majority in parliament without working with the Green Party and others BEFORE the election. And that working together should start right now. COP26 is the perfect time to talk about shared aims... as regards Climate Change, anti-corruption, and an end to absolute power based on a minority share of the vote. Labour need to wake up. The Conservatives can bare to lose A LOT of support and voters and still romp home with a majority in parliament.
We’d just have exactly the same shit as we’ve got now
I doubt it.
The politically engaged can see that Starmer offers nothing different to the tories
It’s the very opposite. The politically engaged can see that Starmer offers nothing different to the tories so conclude there’s no point in voting for him. That’s why the green vote has increased as it has.
The green vote will lead to success for them in local elections and those people will switch to Labour if it means keeping the Tories out nationally.
RedfieldWilton out this evening I suspect Tories will be level with labour
Which is where things seem to be atm
Still I'd Starmer sticks to average trend that wouldn't be enough to unseat tories
In that case, it world be down to Johnsons tory blunders
https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1457690508973776902?t=6lYA10ioceLEWDKZwu9vAQ&s=19
The Y axis on that graph is "change since last election, which given how historically poorly labour did at the last election seems a really bad metric to measure success. Plus it has only risen recently from below average, so more to do with the tories failures than Starmers progress. It is an impressive bit of spin, but totally without merit.
Ot sure it's really spin
Makes clear they expect labour to fall back b4 GE
And we all know how badly they did last time and what base they're starting from.
They are winning back labour voters as tories lose them tho
Broken down here
https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1457679299981586434?t=c_kQtp11jv3P8OJlaUZ1Jg&s=19
I don’t believe if a Labour party were in power we would have exactly the same shit as now.
I doubt it.
So; please do feel free to explain why you believe as you do, then. I'm sure I've asked this question many times; so far, I haven't had a coherent answer. Funny, that...
I’m sure I’ve asked this question many times; so far, I haven’t had a coherent answer.
As my view is as much theory as yours no one can be proved right can they but let's try one. Would Labour have cut Universal Credit?
It is impossible to know what to expect from a Starmer government because for the last couple of years Labour have relied solely on people's blind faith.
Their entire strategy has been based on the claim "we are better than the Tories".
Which might well be the case but it doesn't necessarily guarantee that voters will give them a punt to find out whether it's true.
As far as I am aware there has not been one single opinion poll since Starmer became leader which has suggested a Labour majority. In the last 9 months the best Labour has managed is 2 opinion polls giving them a 1% lead over the Tories.
So there is little evidence that the blind faith strategy is having much success.
Edit : There is one thing which we can be reasonably sure about in the unlikely of a Labour government next general election.
The one thing that Starmer has been very busy doing is driving the left out of the party or positions of influence.
A Starmer government most certainly wouldn't be left-wing. Of that we can be 100% sure.
Their entire strategy has been based on the claim “we are better than the Tories”.
To be fair, "We're better than the other mob" has been pretty much the electoral strategy of every political party since the dawn of time.
Would Labour have cut Universal Credit?
Well, NeoLabour under Starmer? I have no idea. But I wouldn't put it past them. And that's the thing; I wouldn't trust them. And neither would millions of others. And therein lies the problem...
To be fair, “We’re better than the other mob” has been pretty much the electoral strategy of every political party since the dawn of time.
Thank you Nick - very sloppy of me not to be more precise.
Corrected version : Their entire strategy has been based on the claim “we are better nicer people than the Tories”.
"Get brexit done" wasn't claiming that the Tories were better people than Labour, it was claiming that their policy was better than Labour's. And it worked.
Even if Labour do pull something out of the hat , it genuinely won't be a moment of massive change like we could've had in 2017/2019.
There is little to get excited about, in our lifetimes I fear.
Just getting rid of the Tories is not enough. Starmer still runs with the establishment. And to me is a pretty dismal politician.
For sure though the Tories are looking very tired. A party in power too long just falls apart.
Would Labour have cut Universal Credit?
It's not one particular policy - it's the consensus on running the country for a particular economic model. Labour have very much painted a fiscally prudent model. That doesn't bode well for the less well off.
You're not going to lift the bottom part of society without big spend in the right direction. All Labour's signals are at odds with that.
As my view is as much theory as yours no one can be proved right can they but let’s try one. Would Labour have cut Universal Credit?
And actually, that's still not an answer, is it?
it genuinely won’t be a moment of massive change like we could’ve had in 2017/2019
Sadly that is true. I wish more voters felt the same way, but they didn't, and they won't.
without big spend in the right direction
That "big spend" will happen anyway. Who benefits is what really matters. And perhaps more voters are starting to see who exactly benefits with the Conservatives in power, as their cost of living and their tax payments go up, even while some rich people with the right connections have made a tidy profit out of the chaos of the past few years... with little checks on them doing the same over the next few years.
“Get brexit done” wasn’t claiming that the Tories were better people than Labour, it was claiming that their policy was better than Labour’s.
It seems to me that it was more about slogans rather than policy. Don't scrutinise what we're going to do, Brexit just means Brexit, and we'll do whatever you think that is. And despite it being "done" they look to be making sure the "escape the unreasonable EU line" is alive and pertinent at the next election. It's a good job for them that they don't need any votes on the island of Ireland.
A policy of we're nicer, better people might be all it takes if the sleaze 'tag' sticks. People haven't forgotten the last Tory govt that labelled was pinned on.
Most elections are "More of the same" or "Time for a change" we're not even half way through this parliament and already the shine is falling off Johnson faster and faster by the week. You said the Tories are ruthless about getting rid of underperformers. If this sort of behaviour carries on, it'll not be long before the bookies have published odds for his successor
Well the policy of we’re nicer better people hasn't worked up until now so there is no reason to assume that it will with sleaze issues. And not least because Labour don't have a sleaze free recent past.
I said a day or two ago that a self-serving Tory MP filling his boots doesn't boil my piss, in fact it makes it barely lukewarm. And there is every indication that is in line with the attitude of the wider public.
I'm not happy concerning the £100k in Paterson's bank account as reward for being a greedy ****, but greedy MP hardly comes as a surprise.
What really boiled my piss yesterday was my friend telling me how she can't get even a vague date for her hip replacement despite being in agony.
Those are the priorities that concern the wider public and what Labour should be focusing on.
Johnson misjudged the mood of the country over Paterson because whilst the sleazy greed of an individual might not have damaged the Tories the fact that they rallied round him instead of hanging him out to dry did.
we’re not even half way through this parliament and already the shine is falling off Johnson faster and faster by the week.
I find that confusing as I have no doubt that you accept the theory of midterm blues.
At this stage into a government the ruling party should be trailing the opposition. And all the more so if the opposition are vaguely likely to win next election. What has happened is the complete opposite, the opposition are constantly trailing the current ruling party.
You seem to share the same level of optimism as Kimbers. I find it all quite bizarre as it doesn't appear to be based anything other than wishful thinking.
nickc
Full MemberTo be fair, “We’re better than the other mob” has been pretty much the electoral strategy of every political party since the dawn of time.
Theresa May's message was "we're all ****ing horrible but we're strongly horrible." People liked that, "we'll ruin people's lives in an industrial manner" polls better than "we'll bumblingly and wellmeaningly try and make people's lives better"
Just getting rid of the Tories is not enough.
This. I remember when Cameron won in 2010 I joked to some mates that we could feel good about hating the government again instead of just feeling massively disappointed. Well it's the same now. Getting rid of Johnson might alleviate the burning hatred, but it will be replaced with depressing disappointment and frustration with Starmer. More importantly it will set back the goal of a radical reforming government for another few election cycles. If Starmer can show he's a stepping stone to something better he might have a chance, but for now all he offers is another 10-20 years of neo-liberal deadend economics and the poisonous culture war politics that goes with it.
That's what people are going through in the USA... and to be honest I'll take a bit of that now. A better government that isn't as good as I feel it should and could be will do me right now. I'd rather that than what we have now. Not so much for myself, but for all the people being screwed over that really can't afford what's happening to them. I'll take "better but not good enough" ASAP please, rather then the fantasy of....
More importantly it will set back the goal of a radical reforming government for another few election cycles.
Keeping Johnson and his successor in power is not the route to a "radical reforming government" further down the line, it is a route to the Conservatives embedding themselves in power for the rest of your life and mine... and maybe even that of our kids.
It will be next to impossible for Labour to form a government at the next election... but it might well be the best chance for a generation, as voting reforms will come... of the form that further swings the system in favour of the Tories. This is why Starmer really should move aside. He can't win the next election outright. And shows no sign of understanding the real significance of that. Labour need a new leader before the next election, and that leader needs to get their hands dirty working well beyond the boundaries of the party.
Theresa May’s message was “we’re all ****ing horrible but we’re strongly horrible.” People liked that,
I agree with the general premise but you have chosen a really bad example imo.
Why did Theresa May fail to win the 2017 general election, despite previously having a comfortable majority, if the people liked her message?
The lesson of 2017 was that policy trumped personality.
That’s what people are going through in the USA… and to be honest I’ll take a bit of that now.
What Biden is offering is massively more radical than Starmer though.
Also, all this centrist stuff about becoming more right wing to get elected isn't really going too well is it. A lot would be forgiven with some success. The strategy of try to be inoffensive and wait until people get sick of the Tories is pretty desperate stuff.
I’ll take “better but not good enough” ASAP please
That's not what you'll get though. You'll get 'pretty much the same but don't worry at least it's not the tories f***** you over'. When the car is being driven towards the cliff edge I want it to turn around rather than just change the driver.
A better government that isn’t as good as I feel it should and could be will do me right now. I’d rather that than what we have now.
You don't necessarily need a Labour government to achieve that.
The Tories could replace Johnson with someone with more integrity and competence and your minimal improvements would be achieved.
What Biden is offering is massively more radical than Starmer though.
It is. But...
- it's more radical than what he offered at the election
- that's still not enough, and too slow, for many who supported him
If Labour form the next election, I fully expect the same here.
But, again... with Starmer as leader I don't think Labour can make it to even be the largest party in parliament, never mind win a majority. He shouldn't be kept in place for the election, that would be disaster in the making for the UK... in my boring repetitive opinion. He needs to be replaced, and his successor needs to work with those outside Labour who also want Johnson gone.
