That’s your translation. I’d say a new policy platform has not yet been laid out
It's obvious where this is heading. They'll double down on purging any form of left wing people, policies or thought in a headlong pursuit of centrist inoffensiveness and caution. The result will be a scottish style collapse. I confidently predict after the next election that the labour party will be reduced to a London and Manchester based rump, possibly with fewer than 100 MPs. Hell I might even put a bet on it.
Translation: We’re not tory enough and need to do more purging of the left.
If you can look at all the labour losses to the Tory's and the last election and last night and conclude that you need to be less Tory and further to the left, then you're not going to be forming a government any time soon.
I know that those on the left look about as likely to accept it this morning as they were in September, but people are in no mood for radical socialist alternatives and the only thing they're likely to vote for is a fairer and more equitable version of the neoliberal system that we've got.
But even then...?
I'm afraid that we're now dealing with a horribly uncomfortable new reality. The English nationalism and the culture war against 'loony lefties' and 'the liberal elite' that was started with Brexit and is being continued enthusiastically is finding a very, very receptive audience everywhere outside the big cities.
I haven't got a clue how labour counter this now. Whether you are on the left or the centre of the labour party, surely you all believe in a set of values that a majority of the the electorate don't seem much interested in at the moment.
Thats the horrible, depressing reality of Brexit Britain and the new normal
At least now people will be less distracted by waiting for votes, motions from the floor and hoping that the worm will turn. Will he move to the right, the left, resign, get served in a pub, all add up to quietism. Starmer has produced both photographic and electoral evidence that he cannot deliver a punch.
The right of the party see an active constituency membership as Trotskyite comrade sixth-formers who will scare the horses and the money men. Voters didn't support Labour because of AS then, now because of AC. They would rather campaigning was done via the advertising industry and a slimmed-down, silenced and obsequious party makes it easier to select candidates from their chums and descendants. So the PLP becomes a smaller, liberal, similarly coiffed but occasionally vocal alternative to the permanently installed Tories in government. His sponsors will be happy enough with that. Anyone who is serious about challenging what is going on will have to look elsewhere for vision, organisation and support. They'll only get opposition from Labour.
Still banging on about "Centrists" Dazh? I'd describe Nicola Sturgeon as a Centrist, and her work to make the SNP a party for all is part of Labour's problem in Scotland. That and a referendum that put Labour "on the other side" for so many voters that just aren't coming back (which sounds kind of familiar).
They’ll double down on purging any form of left wing people, policies or thought
Even though, after kelvin keeps on asking: Who have they purged? And what policies have changed? And the answer to that is always: no one in particular, and no policies have actually changed, you keep on saying this.
If Labour was still under Corbyn, the result wouldn't have changed in Hartlepool
The answer is normally a list of people "purged" before Starmer was leader. Policies do have to change though, and even though I accept outofbreath's comments about timing, if the Labour Party wait 'till the final hour to unveil to the public what they are about, it'll be way too late... no one will be listening by then. I still think the party needs to change its leader a year out from a general election though. Policies aren't enough. Starmer doesn't have what it takes to win an election, he's too dull... I've said that from the beginning, and he's not showing much promise of proving me wrong. A good PM that will never be, barring a miracle.
I’d describe Nicola Sturgeon as a Centrist,
For sure. In fact you can make the case that the SNP are right of centre: They can set any tax rate they want but don't... They're not exactly big state.
On Five Live they're presently treating us to benefit of Dianne Abbotts wisdom.
She's not part of the problem, obviously.
She really is like nails down a blackboard
I still like Abbott, but that doesn't negate your point. It'll be Burgon next.
and no policies have actually changed
They've gone from having lots of very popular, detailed and forensically researched policies, to having none. Binners asks how they counter nationalism. Well some policies and a vision of how to improve the lives of people who have been left behind would be a start. The other obvious element is an active campaigning presence in communities, rather than a bunch of PR people running irrelevant focus groups in a london ad agency. They've got no policy or vision, and no one on the ground to campaign for them. That's why people don't vote for them.
Starmer doesn’t have what it takes to win an election, he’s too dull…
I *really* rate Starmer, he's exactly the sort of PM I want to see, however, let's assume the problem is him not the party (Which is a bit unlikely given labour's electoral record over the last 60 years) who is there with star electoral quality to do it instead?
(As an aside I also don't buy the idea that Boris is personally popular. He approval ratings are appalling.)
The other obvious element is an active campaigning presence in communities, rather than a bunch of PR people running irrelevant focus groups in a london ad agency.
Not sure what world you live in Dazh. I've spoken to four different Labour campaigners on my doorstep this week, and local councillors have managed to get themselves into national newspapers... the idea that everything in Labour is now top down glossy PR, and ground level campaigning is now for the birds, is nonsense.
EDIT: Ah, think I can perhaps see the "they should be called the London Party" line in action here.
People don't read the policies
People are stupid
People are racist
People vote for things you don't like or agree with
None of that is going to change. Either live with it or use the stupidity to fool them. Throw away integrity and honesty and do really clear and simple things to get into power (see Tory party for examples of how well that works)
They’ve gone from having lots of very popular, detailed and forensically researched policies, to having none.
Which were announced in the run up to the election, not 3 years before. (And the policies were a joke, and totally rejected by the electorate.)
They’ve got no policy or vision, and no one on the ground to campaign for them. That’s why people don’t vote for them.
The Tories have no policies, no vision, have to be blackmailed into feeding hungry children, give money to their mates, lie and cheat, couldn't give a toss about the folk in Hartlepool. That's why people vote for them.
The other obvious element is an active campaigning presence in communities, rather than a bunch of PR people running irrelevant focus groups in a london ad agency.
Yet they just voted overwhelmingly for a party with absolutely no campaigning presence in communities (and barely even any presence) at all, with campaigns run by a a bunch of PR people running irrelevant focus groups in a london ad agency?
But other than that.....
Good summary by Barwell (hes often a tool, but he's mostly right here)
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1390549774986788864?s=19
This is being reported as a big shock, but where did people expect most of those 10k Brexit party votes to go? Wouldn't the most basic analysis suggest an obvious Tory win?
People are stupid
People are racist
This is being reported as a big shock, but where did people expect most of those 10k Brexit party votes to go?
Brexit was a single issue and is now behind us. The logical thing for people who have voted on a single issue is for them to go straight back to the party they previously voted for.
The fact they didn't should be a bit of a suprise and shows there's a lot more going on here.
This is being reported as a big shock, but where did people expect most of those 10k Brexit party votes to go? Wouldn’t the most basic analysis suggest an obvious Tory win?
You're not allowed to mention the 25% of the vote that went to the Brexit party at the last election and the fact that thats the only thing that prevented what happening last night happening then.
What you have to do instead is pretend its not part of the equation at all and just keep saying 'Jeremy Corbyn retained the seat'
Brexit was a single issue and is now behind us
By behind us, do you mean like a big red bus as we step out into the road?
I don’t buy it being behind us in terms of political influence tbh.
Brexit was a single issue and is now behind us.
I think it's a mistake to think that. Brexit has opened up a much bigger division. I think left and right are falling away, and the Tories have recognised that, they are becoming/have become a high spend/high tax party, all at the same time using cultural touchstones to appeal to socially conservative voters.
Brexit was a single issue and is now behind us. The logical thing for people who have voted on a single issue is for them to go straight back to the party they previously voted for.
The fact they didn’t should be a bit of a suprise and shows there’s a lot more going on here
Brexit was merely the starting gun of an culture war being waged by the Tory party which depicts the labour party as either a liberal elite or loony lefties, both held in equal contempt by voters in places like Hartlepool or Bolton or Rotherham, now that Brexit has clearly defined the dividing lines.
It's been more successful than any of its architects dared to imagine. Expect a lot more of it
I mean behind us as in 'your vote in Hartlepool or the local elections can't affect brexit'.
The other obvious element is an active campaigning presence in communities, rather than a bunch of PR people running irrelevant focus groups in a london ad agency.
There's plenty of us campaigning and talking about local issues. On the doorstep national policy is rarely the top topic. Sadly I think people complain locally and vote on popular headline points.
When you ask people what they want, it's more money in schools, the NHS, social care, good roads, etc etc, because, well who wouldn't?
They actually vote on immigration and standing up to the Left/EU because they vote on fear not hope.
That's the genius of the right, you don't need a policy or any semblance of sincerity, all you need is the fear of 'them'.
(And yes, labour campaigners do exist in the South Binners)
Brexit isn't behind us. It's barely started. And I would argue it's not a single issue but intrinsically tied to other policies and rhetoric. So would a Brexit voter reward the party which delivered what they wanted or return to a party which for many years had an incomprehensible policy on it?
I agree. Just been looking at the historical results on wiki and there very little support for left leaning parties
It was only 4 years ago that 52% of voters in Hartlepool voted for a "left leaning" party.
Because Labour’s vote in 2017 was bolstered by young and professional remain voters.
In 2017 the Labour Party was fully committed to respecting the referendum result, and then spent the next 2 years doing everything possible to stop Brexit.
I can't believe how blind some people are to things that don't sit comfortably with what they believe.
I guess that probably helps to explain why the Labour Party seems to be completely incapable of understanding what were once its most loyal supporters.
I don’t buy that either tbh OoB
Is it logical to return to the former party or the party that “got Brexit done” especially as changing votes from one party to UKIP eroded traditional party allegiance?
You’re not allowed to mention the 25% of the vote that went to the Brexit party at the last election and the fact that thats the only thing that prevented what happening last night happening then.
Mention it all you like, but it doesn't explain why the Labour vote fell by 9 points from 2019, or why they substantially increased their vote from 2015 to 2017. That's right - Labour is even less popular under Sir Armrest than it was under the leader you regularly deride as absolutely useless.
Stick with the convenient fiction that it's all to do with Corbyn and Brexit, and say hello to electoral oblivion. Personally, I've had more than enough of Keith's flag shagging and policy vacuum, and I know plenty of others who feel the same. So stand by for Labour haemorrhaging working-class and metropolitan-left votes at the same time.
Brexit has opened up a much bigger division. I think left and right are falling away, and the Tories have recognised that, they are becoming/have become a high spend/high tax party, all at the same time using cultural touchstones to appeal to socially conservative voters.
That's not Brexit, might have been caused by Brexit, but it isn't Brexit.
And left and right fell away in 1997. It came back briefly with Corbyn.
Personally I'd argue there never was a left and right, they've always been meaningless terms. 40 years ago Eurosceptic was 'left', now it's considered 'right'. Benefits in kind used to be 'right' now they're considered 'left'. The list goes on. (But that's a massive digression which I hope nobody picks up)
The Tories have no policies, no vision
Yet they just voted overwhelmingly for a party with absolutely no campaigning presence in communities
The tories have what labour don't, a compliant mainstream media and state broadcaster which spews barely disguised propaganda directly into the minds of the whole population. They don't need to campaign in communities.
This is being reported as a big shock, but where did people expect most of those 10k Brexit party votes to go? Wouldn’t the most basic analysis suggest an obvious Tory win?
Yep
The Survation polling from Hartlepool last week said exactly that
https://www.survation.com/new-phone-poll-places-conservatives-on-course-for-hartlepool-win/
The tories have what labour don’t, a compliant mainstream media and state broadcaster which spews barely disguised propaganda into the national conscience. They don’t need to campaign in communities.
In which case the dramatic rise of Social media should have dramatically increased support for "non-tory" partys. So it isn't that.
40 years ago Eurosceptic was ‘left’, now it’s considered ‘right’
That's because it can be from both sides
Left - lack of democracy in EU, too much control over what could be achieved by a truly socialist government
Right - too many foreigners, sovereignty and too much control over what could be achieved by a capitalist government who want to throw away such things as protections and over stuff that get's in the way
In 2017 the Labour Party was fully committed to respecting the referendum result
Don't disagree, BUT, the conservatives made Brexit their total campaign, wholeheartedly embracing it in a bid to get the former UKIP voters on board, and it worked. Also they promised to heavily restrict immigration. You only have to look at the results. Kensington (absolutely the heart of Tory West London) went to Labour (remain vote) and Stoketon-Trent (former industrial town) went Conservative for the first time ever (heavy Leave). Labour became the home of the remain vote because in 2017 they had no-where else to go.
I can’t believe how blind some people are to things that don’t sit comfortably with what they believe.
Touche
lack of democracy in EU
So now you're saying democracy is left wing, whereas Stalinist Russia wasn't very democratic. Towards the end of the war Nazi Germany was the most multicultural place in the planet as troops of all nationalities (including Muslims) retreated into Germany.
More evidence to support my point. Stuff swaps left to right fluidly. They're meaningless terms.
This is being reported as a big shock, but where did people expect most of those 10k Brexit party votes to go? Wouldn’t the most basic analysis suggest an obvious Tory win?
If it'd been a close result, and Labour's share of the vote had held up (or increased, given 2019 was a low point) that might be a valid argument. What actually happened was that Labour's share fell by 9 points from the 2019 election, which as we all know was disastrous.
In 2017 the Labour Party was fully committed to respecting the referendum result, and then spent the next 2 years doing everything possible to stop Brexit.
Careful, you're straying onto nazi sympathiser/appeaser territory here. 😳
Personally, I’ve had more than enough of Keith’s flag shagging and policy vacuum, and I know plenty of others who feel the same.
I stayed at home this time. Or rather my postal vote is still in a pile of unopened junk mail. I know plenty of others who did the same.
This is being reported as a big shock, but where did people expect most of those 10k Brexit party votes to go? Wouldn’t the most basic analysis suggest an obvious Tory win?
So why did most of the UKIP votes in Hartlepool go to Labour in 2017?
What's that all about?
So why did most of the UKIP votes in Hartlepool go to Labour in 2017?
comfortable
What’s that all about?
Precisely. If you add the UKIP and Tory vote from 2015, it pointed to a comfortable Tory win in 2017.
I stayed at home this time. Or rather my postal vote is still in a pile of unopened junk mail. I know plenty of others who did the same.
I voted Green.
In which case the dramatic rise of Social media should have dramatically increased support for “non-tory” partys
Yes of course the tory party or it's supporters don't do social media do they? It's too modern. FFS the tories are way ahead of labour in the social media arena. The only time labour got anywhere near was when those evil communists Momentum were cranking out content on a daily basis.
Lol! So that went well... 😀
The Tories have no policies, no vision, have to be blackmailed into feeding hungry children, give money to their mates, lie and cheat, couldn’t give a toss about the folk in Hartlepool. That’s why people vote for them.
Truth is, that the middle class neoliberal elite that run Labour today, couldn't give a toss about the folk in Hartlepool either. The only difference is, that the tories do what they want and don't give a ****, whilst Labour politicians try to pretend they do care (bar a small handful, but it's very small). And the veil has slipped. People are now seeing the Labour elite for what they really are; wealthy, privileged and contemptuous of the working classes, the very people they are supposed to represent. Fact is most people are politically ignorant; this thread is evidence enough of that. So populism works far better than vague verbosity. The Labour elite are insulated and isolated from the majority of people, and their wishy washy liberalism just doesn't wash. Most people just want to feel safe and protected, and for all Boris' faults, he appeals because he is a bully, arrogant and politically bombproof. It's like how kids back the bully in the school playground, because they don't want to be bullied themselves. Whilst the focus is on someone else, it's not on you. But Labour haven't been led by such a figure since Blair, and that's really where the current problems began. Had Blair been committed to even vaguely left-wing principles, and not facilitated the political shift towards the right, Boris wouldn't be enjoying the success he is. Armrest's attempt at populism failed dismally; even his own MPs have said so:
So where does Starmer and Labour go from here? Hemorrhaging votes, supporters and members, it's looking very bleak. Be interesting* to read what the Armresters on here think.
*I say 'interesting'; I mean 'amusing'.
It was only 4 years ago that 52% of voters in Hartlepool voted for a “left leaning” party.
Yes. They once marginally voted for one left leaning party. No other parties of note and no other labour majority since Blair
