What if it just means the Tories are accurately reflecting the views and wishes of the electorate?
Well that would surely break the generally accepted order of things. Historically the British electorate are never happy or satisfied with their existing government. A ruling party can expect to lose seats to opposition parties in by-elections as they suffer the inevitable mid-term blues. Their fortunes generally improve when a general election campaign kicks off.
If Labour are in opposition but the electorate are dissatisfied with them the Liberal Party/LibDems can historically expect to do very well in a by-election.
However, and quite remarkably, the LibDems are consistently polling a third of what they were polling when Charles Kennedy was leader. They appear not to have recovered at all since Nick Clegg swung them dramatically to the right and rendered them an irrelevance.
BTW I consider Charles Kennedy to have been the best leader of any party since the death of Labour's John Smith. Damn you Scots with your high cholesterol diet and alcohol. If Scots ate more fresh fruit and greens, and drank more sensibly, I'm sure British politics would be in a much better place today.
BTW I consider Charles Kennedy to have been the best leader of any party since the death of Labour’s John Smith
And what are you using as your metric for that? Someone who transformed his parties fortunes from the doldrums of being a political irrelevance all the way to the heady heights of being a political irrelevance?
I can think of one contender for your title, who won three consecutive elections but we all know that winning elections isn’t important, whereas being idealogically pure counts for everything, so we’re not allowed to give him any credit for anything
And anyway, the most successful political leader of the last ten years is Nigel Farage.
He’s basically achieved everything he wanted without ever even being elected as an MP. The Tory’s are so scared of him, they delivered everything he wanted, then turned themselves into him
He stands as the ultimate benchmark of power without responsibility. Boris Johnson is his tribute act
At a time of war it's an excepted norm that incumbent government's are returned to office or enjoy a temporary boost in public 'confidence'. In recent times for example, both Thatcher and Bush secured second terms under these conditions.
The impact of covid has similarities to war .From the get go the economic impact was couched in reference to the cost of World War 2, similarly comparisons in death rates and a slew of government mandated restrictions, the likes of which haven't been seen since the 1940's.
Add Brexit to the mix and it's hardly surprising we are where we are. The compound effect of the two viruses (one self inflicted) has created a state of anxiety, one where caution rules and the status quo is likey to be maintained, or even craved for. (The desire to get back to normal).
Calls for change will fall on deaf ears. Ideas about reshaping the nation will be little more than white noise to most voters, people are just lookong to survive, both the pandemic, the looming economic catastrophie and the accompanying social upheaval.
Then there the likely escalation of civil disturbances eand that will form the major opposition to the government in the short to medium term.
Labour can't afford to be seen to side with the protesters, the party will have to keep their distance from umfolding events, their only hope will be to pick up the pieces in a couple of years time but for that ro happen the party will need to appear stable and credible.
I do not see a shift to the left in the party. I expect the left wing of the party to be further marginalised, silenced even. Things look desperate for Labour right now but events dear boy events. The most important thing right now is that the party sticks together, and unfortunately for some on here, that means the left shutting up for a little while lest they break the party in two on a point of 'principle' (RLB's favourite word.)
The chickens will come home to roost for the govern,ent sooner or later, Labour needs to look like a responsible government in waiting, not a radical one. Save the radical ideas for when you get into power and for God's sake don't put them into the manifesto, don't put them to commitie meetings and for double God's sake dont put any ideas to 'duh membership' to vote on.
Get an advertising agency in to handle everything up until you get the keys to Number 10.
Calls for change will fall on deaf ears. Ideas about reshaping the nation will be little more than white noise to most voters, people are just lookong to survive, both the pandemic, the looming economic catastrophie and the accompanying social upheaval.
That is always the case even though clearly more so now. People don't like change, they are going to fear any radical changes proposed. You need to fool them with simple messages of it all being alright, "Things can only get better" maybe
Charles Kennedy to have been the best leader of any party since the death of Labour’s John Smith
Founder member of the SDP IIRC
Are you trolling the labour left on here?
Maybe big n daft.
Or maybe the pursuit of a political agenda which serves the best interests of working people requires an analytical and pragmatic approach based on the reality of the situation, not what you might have wished for.
The Labour Party is and has always been a social democratic party, I have never been a social democrat. Past support I have given it has never been based on "idealogical purity". It has instead been based on the need for "immediate gains" in the interests of working people, eg a national health service, health and safety at work, race discrimination act, etc etc. Utopia can wait, although it always remains the goal - as long as there are societal issues the aim of constantly improving society should never be abandoned.
Charles Kennedy built LibDem support to its highest historical levels by challenging New Labour, both on domestic and international issues. Supporting him and the LibDems at that time definitely imo served the best interests of working people.
Sorry to edit my previous comment it's really not appropriate to claim that the Labour Party has always been a social democratic party. It's mostly always been a social democratic party. It's clear that during the New Labour era it no longer was. It was, during that period, a centre right conservative party. It certainly didn't support a mixed economy.
I have no idea what it is today. I don't think anyone has.
Wot inkster said
I do. It's a party committed to maintaining the status quo and regards socialists as a greater threat than Tories. Disparaging egalitarians is an ideological accepted norm in the Labour Party.
Given that most in this thread think that Labour are pretty much tories then I have to assume you all vote for Green party (what other option is there?) Or do you all just strop because no party represents you?
Based on that and the 'fact' people want fairer and more progressive stuff why do you think the Green Party hovers around 4%
Especially as climate stuff is probably more in peoples mind year on year which should help them not hinder them
The most important thing right now is that the party sticks together, and unfortunately for some on here, that means the left shutting up for a little while ... and for double God’s sake dont put any ideas to ‘duh membership’ to vote on.
So basically; shut down democracy within the party? Exclude anyone who doesn't subscribe to a form of 'ideological purity'? So; the answer to claims that Labour aren't listening to anyone, is, to not listen to anyone? Great idea. I can't see how that can go wrong. 😀
I have to assume you all vote for Green party
I'll be voting green next time probably assuming they stand a candidate (they didn't last time). Or possibly the NIP if they get their act together.
Or do you all just strop because no party represents you?
Yes we all post simplistic memes.
Based on that and the ‘fact’ people want fairer and more progressive stuff why do you think the Green Party hovers around 4%
One obvious problem for the Greens is some of their science positions have been batshit insane. Admittedly plenty of tory and labour MPs seem to believe the same rubbish but it doesnt tend to be so front and centre.
Another is the issue that getting a decent representation in FPTP the post means people are unlikely to vote for them.
Logically it would make more sense to hijack one of the other parties and hope the traditional voters dont notice for a while.
The only way forward is a hung parliament and a progressive coalition where there is compromise and a large dose of common sense on all sides. It seems that single party politics will never accommodate all the differing views of the electorate. Doubt I’ll see this in my lifetime.
The only way forward is a hung parliament and a progressive coalition where there is compromise and a large dose of common sense on all sides. It seems that single party politics will never accommodate all the differing views of the electorate. Doubt I’ll see this in my lifetime.
I don't know about that - the electoral arithmetic is pretty devastating for labour right now. They're in the cellar to the tune of 123 seats - an epic swing that will take a Martian invasion to deliver by 2023. Scotland off the table but the SNP running out of steam. FPTP is delivering a votes per seat of 26K SNP, 38K Con, 51K Lab, 336K(!) Lib.
The nadir doesn't offer a good perspective for predictions, things will change, but it doesn't seem crazy to think of coalition politics in the near medium term.
On a more serious note, people will increasingly realise that opposition or demands for change can only come from the workplace or the streets as the LP has positioned itself firmly behind the head bangers and those trapped in wealth like Me-Me's friend Jacob. It's bad enough having to wait for the next election before anything can happen in a major crisis but absolutely pointless if you're given nothing to fight for. Even the right in the PLP are getting a bit uncomfortable about giving up their seats on the gravy train. Incidentally, when Corbyn was leader, Hartlepool returned Labour twice.
but it doesn’t seem crazy to think of coalition politics in the near medium term
It's more likely than a Labour majority. Still very, very unlikely.
Someone, I forget who, posted that any Conservative supporter reading this thread will be laughing their heads off. It's an easy Tory win come the next election, as the opposition vote fragments, and the biggest of them continues to refuse to work with anyone else.
Incidentally, when Corbyn was leader, Hartlepool returned Labour twice.
Yes, yes, before Johnson successfully transformed most of the UKIP/BP support into Tory support. I fully expect Labour to increase their share of the vote, but still lose the seat, as UKIP/BP voters (many who would have voted Labour long ago) vote Conservative in huge numbers next month, many for the first time ever.
They’re in the cellar to the tune of 123 seats –
Sure, but not worse than the Tory position in 2005.
Yes, yes, before Johnson successfully transformed most of the UKIP/BP support into Tory support
When did this transformation occur?
In 2019, when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister, Labour still managed to receive a larger share of the vote on Hartlepool than it had done in 2015, when Ed Miliband was leader.
Furthermore in 2019 the UKIP/BP vote in Hartlepool was the highest it has EVER been. More than double what it had been 2 years previously in the 2017 general election.
Where is your evidence that Johnson has successfully transformed most of the UKIP/BP support in Hartlepool into Tory support?
I agree that I don't expect the UKIP/BP to hold up in the Hartlepool by-election, there's really not much reason for anyone to vote UKIP now, is there?
But why should it not go to Labour rather than the Tories?
In 2017 52% of voters in Hartlepool voted Labour, and Brexit was definitely still an issue then. Presumably in 2017 Hartlepool voters believed Corbyn's false election pledge that Labour would respect the EU referendum result.
Why should Starmer do worse in 2021 in Hartlepool than Corbyn did in 2017, when Brexit isn't even an issue anymore for voters there?
Why should Starmer do worse in 2021 in Hartlepool than Corbyn did in 2017, when Brexit isn’t even an issue anymore for voters there?
Because the combination of Farage, a succession of Labour leaders, and now Johnson have resulted in many people moving from Labour to UKIP/BP to Tory. Many only previously voted Labour out of a vague notion that they were the party "for them"... and now that habit has been broken, it's going to be very hard to get many of them back. Allegiance is intangible, and doesn't just come about by proposing the "right" policies and explaining how they benefit voters.
Btw if Brexit is still an issue for Labour in Hartlepool, though I don't think it is, why FFS, did Labour choose a candidate who was a totally committed to remain.
It's either incredibly draft or Starmer no longer thinks it's an issue.
It's "nothing" to do with Brexit... but Brexit was one of the tools used to create the sense that Labour aren't "for them" and that Johnson and his people are (as maddening as that nonsense is). In some areas Labour are now seen as a party of London and the home counties (don't mention Eton), who do not understand their concerns (looking after "our own" and sticking it to people who speak funny on the train).
Where is your evidence that Johnson has successfully transformed most of the UKIP/BP support in Hartlepool into Tory support?
There is none yet. The vote next month will reveal it. If, as I suspect, Labour grow their share of the vote, but loose the seat (or come close to doing so) when the Conservative share grows far more, absorbing most of the BP vote share at the last election.
Btw if Brexit is still an issue for Labour in Hartlepool, though I don’t think it is, why FFS, did Labour choose a candidate who was a totally committed to remain.
It’s either incredibly draft or Starmer no longer thinks it’s an issue.
He's a serial candidate, was standing for PCC etc. Someone in labour think he's worth the effort
Brexit has redifined the political axis in the UK, tho the shift has been coming for a while, its just that it crystalised around it
the issues that fed into it arent going away & Brexit itself isnt really done: negotiations still ongoing & its effects on the Union itself are a long way from over
Because the combination of Farage, a succession of Labour leaders, and now Johnson have resulted in many people moving from Labour to UKIP/BP to Tory. Many only previously voted Labour out of a vague notion that they were the party “for them”… and now that habit has been broken, it’s going to be very hard to get many of them back.
Well it wasn't 'very hard' for Corbyn to get 52% of the vote in Hartlepool in 2017, he managed to do it with one hand tied behind his back by the PLP.
It's a fact that the UKIP vote has never been anything other than a protest vote, that's why UKIP has always done extremely badly in general elections - voters simply go back to the two main parties.
That's why Nigel Farage tried 7 times and failed 7 times to win a parliamentary seat.
Because the combination of Farage, a succession of Labour leaders, and now Johnson have resulted in many people moving from Labour to UKIP/BP to Tory. Many only previously voted Labour out of a vague notion that they were the party “for them”… and now that habit has been broken, it’s going to be very hard to get many of them back. Allegiance is intangible, and doesn’t just come about by proposing the “right” policies and explaining how they benefit voters.
Not in Hartlepool.
They did not move away from labour last time.
If they do now, that will be new losses.
Starmer's losses on starmer's watch.
Not in Hartlepool.
28% of the vote at the last election when to the Brexit Party. The Labour Party share fell 15% on 2017. UKIP vote was strong before that... 28% in 2015. The Tories used to be left far behind by Labour here... the rise of UKIP/BP has helped break that link with Labour... and now Johnson looks to have motivated those voters to vote for his party in numbers that Starmer has failed to do. I still predict that Labour will increase its vote share, but either lose, or come close to losing, the seat.
There is none yet. The vote next month will reveal it. If, as I suspect, Labour grow their share of the vote, but loose the seat (or come close to doing so) when the Conservative share grows far more, absorbing most of the BP vote share at the last election.
Okay fair enough.
Btw any opinion on what happened to the LibDem vote in Hartlepool? Not that long ago the LibDems were the second largest party in Hartlepool polling 3 times more than the Tories.
It's almost as if swinging to the right after Charles Kennedy and cosying up to the Tories did them no favour. They seemed to have lost the appeal they once had in Hartlepool when they provided a leftwing alternative to New Labour.
It’s almost as if swinging to the right after Charles Kennedy and cosying up to the Tories did them no favour.
No shit sherlock. 😉
And now they have one of the few MPs more boring than Starmer as their leader.
I recently googled who the LibDem leader was as I couldn't remember, and now again I can't remember.
There's some kind of spell cast over him to make you forget.
Layla Moran had some good ideas, and I quite liked the revenge of the geeks style she brought to broadcast interviews. That's not for this thread though.
Quite like Ed Davey. Knows his onions on energy/climate change.
Well done for remembering him. And yes, he's has been consistently strong across that brief. I'd take him as a minister over anyone currently in government. Not going to inspire people to vote LibDem in Hartlepool though, in any serious numbers, is he?
Slightly off topic. *Macroeconomics*
Richard Murphy has made available a round up of all of his lengthy tweets about the economy and monetary system for the UK.
Free and easy to read.
Richard does tend to wander a bit but essentially an MMT proponent with lots of surrounding opinions.
He's been an advisor to Labour in the past and one of the GND architects.
Thnaks rone. always enjoyed reading his tweets, having them all in one book is cool
Looks like the socialist revolution has been put on hold for a bit longer, comrades
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1380230803192492041?s=20
... as the continuity Corbyn candidate filled the forms in incorrectly
socialist revolution
comrades
continuity Corbyn
Don't you get tired banging that same drum?
Looks like the socialist revolution has been put on hold for a bit longer, comrades
Meanwhile:
Sleaze has to be the big thing this week and next. How can people still want to vote for these shysters?
Starmer's centrism is making the lib dems more popular. That's quite an achievement given their leader is even more boring than Starmer.
I couldnt quite tell if NIP was some sort of performance art set up, but then I thought that about Farage once & look at the damage he did!
That's a bad poll for Labour
The Tories hadn't increased their lead but labours had fallen and split evenly between LD & Green
I still think Tories will get a bit higher as we fully open up in the summer -It seems no matter how sleazy they are, their core will not dessert them.
Starmer’s centrism is making the lib dems more popular.
I'm not sure Stamer's "centrism" is either here nor there. He's not cutting through, that's for sure... but are Hartlepool voters really saying they won't vote for the Labour candidate because Starmer isn't a "left wing" firebrand? Absolutely Starmer is trying, with arguabley little success, to position Labour "on the left, but not just for the left"... but is that really why the Conservatives are increasing their lead? Anyone really, genuinely think so? Nothing about vaccines, declining death rates and opening up pubs and shops?
Labour has to become a coalition of the centre and the left. That Starmer is unsuited to winning over the public on that ticket is an easy case to argue, he's uninspiring. But his task is doomed to fail anyway, when the public can so clearly see that coalition is not just "uneasy" but self destructive.
How can people still want to vote for these shysters?
Because they wear their self serving deceptive lying status on their sleeves? No one ever supported Johnson and his cabinet because they thought they were trustworthy and just in it to serve the public, did they?
Don’t you get tired banging that same drum?
Come on... you'd miss it if I didn't.
And when there's comedy gold gold like that...
Its like a metaphor
Interesting fact of the day for you... the bloke who set up the Northern Independence Party is actually from Brighton
Of course he is.
Looks like you need to help kill 130,000 people , demolish the economy, oversee a Brexit mess to be 14 points ahead these days.
Looks like you need to help kill 130,000 people , demolish the economy, oversee a Brexit mess to be 14 points ahead these days.
There's only one game in town at the moment... the vaccination programme. Everything else is irrelevant. People can go to Primark then have a pint. Job jobbed!
This is doing for Boris what the Falklands did for Fatcha. She'd have been toast in her first term without that. This is the same thing
It's genuinely painfully ironic that it's going to be the NHS and the public sector that deliver this after a year where his private sector mates have been delivering a masterclass in incompetence and corruption.
He's been handed a 'get out of jail free' card by the very people he views with utter contempt, and he couldn't give a toss that he's ruthlessly exploiting their sacrifice and sense of duty. He's utterly shameless
