Scotland Indyref 2

Duckman - there is a small increase in the tory vote in Scotland - but the tories need to be a bit open about the fact that the PR in scottish elections is the only reason the tories have any representation in scotland bar one MP that they might get under FPTP

[i]I quite like Ruth Davidson. I disagree with her politically, but I think she is a good politician, not a game player and really believes what she's talking about. Can't say I feel that way about many other people from the Conservative party. Got a lot of time for Ken Clarke though.[/I]

IMO the sheer number of SNP MP's actually distort Scottish politics, as at an MSP level (which is the parliament that would actually govern an independent Scotland) you've the following:

SNP 64
Labour 38
Conservative 15
LibDems 5
Greens 2
Independents 3
Speaker 1

Going forward each of the parties would actually be able to focus on Scotland and not what (for the UK-based parties) their centre is focused on. For me this would mean that the Conservatives would pick up more votes/seats as folk who in no way would vote for the more right-wing agenda and sentiment of the current Tory party would vote for a more liberal Scottish one.

Those are the previous parliament numbers, Tories now have 31, Labour 24

In fairness, the Tory vote was more than a small increase. From 2011 to 2016 they nearly doubled their vote in both votes. Some of that is down to Davidson. Some of it is down to the collapse of labour, some of it is due to larger turnout, alot of it is to down to the polarisation of British nationalist and Scottish nationalist. The snp also increased their vote share by a decent amount.

So aye she's done a good job. But i wouldn't got too mental. She's at peak Tory. Maybe a bit more to be won, but no much i don't think. Her star will wain, but recent events will probably help her in the short term.

I have a bit of time for Davidson. I prefer her predecessor Goldie tho.

I suspect she would quite like an independent scotland in some ways as there is clearly tension between the english and scottish parties as Davidson knows some UK tory policy simply is not on in Scotland

Joe, she has done an interesting job as the last results show but by her own admission a long way from power. Not bad for a Tory woman in a country of long memories! But she appeared pretty clear in Indy2

“We will fight you every step of the way,” she said. “Are you listening, Nicola Sturgeon? No. Second. Referendum.”

Not much ambiguity there. Most likely to lose the idea of no referendum. Just the timing now - its getting a bit like Italian politics of old 😉

aracer - Member
Pushing boundaries again scotroutes?

[i]That's [/i] what happens when you don't have a quote function and you're editing on a phone!

So here is Scotland's problem with EU membership post Brexit. No control over its trading relationship with its largest partner and at the whim of the EU should it try and block financial services.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-uk-continues-to-be-scotlands-largest-market-for-trade

Video here

As I said an EEA arrangement allows Scotland to agree a further bespoke deal with the UK and as such is the most credible option. Budget contributions, freedom of movement and no EU representation or influence.

teamhurtmore - Member
Most likely to lose the idea of no referendum. Just the timing now

Tbh I'm pretty relaxed about that. More I think about it, more I think a referendum in the timeline the SNP set out is a really bad idea. I think it will lose, by worse than last time, the complication of Europe is a big complication for the Scot Nats. Although you can't predict how campaigning would affect things.

I think you are right, Tory plan is obviously to argue that there is no mandate and force the SNP to fight the next election on gaining a proper mandate(a wee sub clause slipped in there isn't really a mandate imo), which is interesting in itself. As it basically standardizes the right of the Scottish parliament to call a referendum, if it is properly campaigned on (as it should be).

All in all, a fairly smart play by the SNP if you look at it that way. I doubt they haven't thought of the tory reaction(and their likely rejection) before the went down this route.

Like the last ref(and the 3 question idea) the SNP are being manipulative here I think.

[quote=scotroutes ]Goddammit! It took me ages to suss out what you were getting at. I had to re-read what I'd posted several times.
That's what happens when you don't have a quote function and you're editing on a phone!

Completely accidental then? Aye right 😉 Quite an amusing accident admittedly (and I'm still left wondering if you got the careful phrasing of my post!) 🙂

In other news, I'm not quite sure if one of the other politics threads would be a better place to put this as Wilders has already been discussed on both of those:

[quote=seosamh77 ]All in all, a fairly smart play by the SNP if you look at it that way. I doubt they haven't thought of the tory reaction(and their likely rejection) before the went down this route.

I'm wondering if they're thinking even more plays ahead than we've imagined. I certainly doubt very much it's what it appears to be, or that the principle aim here is to have another referendum. Looking at it in that context I'm not even sure that TM's response is so daft - maybe she's not actually bothered about stirring up a little bit of pro indy sentiment as she knows it's not going to happen anyway and she's simply setting out her position for the real political game going on here.

I don't think so aracer - there is huge pressure on Sturgeon to hold another referendum and I will bet you a pint we have a referendum with or without Westminster support on the timeline Sturgeon has put forward

Joe...Manipulative, opportunistic and downright disingenuous 😉

As the attitudes survey indicate, Scots are naturally sceptical about some aspects of Europe and opposed to further control - all perfectly sensible. So the SNP have to paint the hard Brexshit scare narrative to overcome this OR as they seem to be doing now back peddle and start to favour soft Brexshit options. This is where May should be focusing on - deliver a sensible bespoke deal, show the SNP up, and get back to delivering effective devolved power withing a very successful Union. Of course, the latter requires those in the devolved assemblies to be properly focused on their day jobs not some fantastic folly that harms Scotland and rUK.

I reckon Sturgeon is hedging her bets,
If she helps force May into accepting a softer brexit or Norway EEA deal then she can claim victory
If May goes full hard she can go for Indy and push for a Norway option herself (its much more sellable to any Out voting Yesers)
If the bunglings of Johnson, Hammond, Fox, Davis etc continues into the negotiations, well Sexshit might well be the best thing anyway

teamhurtmore - Member
Joe...Manipulative, opportunistic and downright disingenuous

[quote=tjagain ]I will bet you a pint

You're on 🙂

The question is whether the political pressure is to have a referendum, or simply to look like she's in favour of a referendum. She's a canny politician - far more so than Alex was IMHO - and could well be lining up the excuses in the background.

The EEA option is certainly an interesting one though, whether for iS or as a compromise position for UK somewhere down the line when people have woken up a bit. It's certainly one I'd be broadly in favour of which gives us most of the benefits of EU membership (and looking back at older EU threads when I was arguing for us leaving it's what I was always in favour of) without actually being impossible following A50 declaration.

I think Sturgeon is up to something, but who will blink first? Judging by the way the SNP is portrayed in the print beloved of her own voters, May can't been seen to give concessions/appear to lose. (any comments page in the mail or even the Telegraph talk about "treason" 🙄 ) Add in the fact that NS is being pushed by her party to call it and it will be an interesting wee while. I will also take the TJ bet on a pint. I suspect that she wouldn't call the ref without permission and would LOVE to have it refused.
😀 If she [b]does[/b] force the Government into a Norway deal, will THM be the first to congratulate the sterling work of the SNP of behalf of the UK? 😀

OK duckman - yer on!

I think if permission is refused she will use that to increase support and hold one anyway without Westminster permission.

If she does force the Government into a Norway deal, will THM be the first to congratulate the sterling work of the SNP of behalf of the UK?

Shes up to something all right.
[url= http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15158935.Sturgeon_may_not_offer_to_reverse_Brexit_in_referendum__says_Salmond/ ]Herald: First Minister Nicola Sturgeon may not offer to reverse Brexit in Scottish independence referendum, says Alex Salmond[/url]
That escalated quickly!
Good thing shes a principled politician with real values who sticks to her word.
Whats her "Priority" again .. oh Education?
[url= http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/school-in-swinney-s-constituency-asks-parents-for-maths-help-1-4391411 ]Scotsman: School in Swinney’s constituency asks parents for maths help[/url]

eat_the_pudding - Member
...Whats her "Priority" again .. oh Education?...

Simple enough to answer. If it isn't independence, what's the point of voting SNP?

As for Ruth Davidson, she reminds me of Tories before they became toxic, and if she bucked the party line a bit more on the peasant crushing she'd increase her vote. I suspect she'd make a great New Labour First Minister of Scotland. 🙂

No ducks, I want better than EFTA*. That is an incomplete solution to ensuring access to the single market in future. Perhaps in the desperation to back peddle on EU membership now that the wind has changed, the SNP has failed to so their homework. The EEA does not give full access in terms of goods only services (among other weaknesses*) - and I am sure that Scotland wants to be more than a service economy.

I am looking for May to deliver a more comprehensive solution than EFTA*alone - although that is (admittedly) better than WTO IMO. When she does, the sand that is the foundation of the SNP's argument now will be exposed.

Roll on....

* I asume she (?) or the real puppet master is talking about EFTA but leaving details aside,
it should also be noted that in contrast to the SNP falshoods about having a priori rights re membership of bodies like the EU and EFTA, that is not a given.

I can't speak for anyone else but for me personally the single market and freedom of movement are essential.

I would probably be back in Glasgow within the year if it wasn't for Brexit. I have an Italian girlfriend and two kids born in Norway. We were planning on moving back but the absolutely toxic attitudes towards foreigners means that I wouldn't feel comfortable bringing my family back.

It's one thing if the lunatic fringe of the governing party were making noises about forcing companies to disclose how many foreigners they have on the books or to make schools keep lists of children who were born abroad but this is the ****ing party leadership we're talking about.

I want to get back to Glasgow to be closer to my parents and my friends but until independence (or a radical change to mainstream attitudes in the UK as a whole) I'm not prepared to risk members of my family being singled out by law.

Overly dramatic? Maybe. But the way things are going I'm not taking any chances.

epicyclo,
I guess independence would be one reason to vote SNP but its a relatively widely held opinion that the SNP were also concerned with improving the lives of the people of Scotland using the powers an money at their disposal.

The reason of the day for independence used to be "rich" but now we have deficit so it's "brexit" but now shes back pedalling on reversing even that (to get votes for independence).

So have the tories on one side refusing to cost a no deal divorce from europe, and on the other the SNP who will say anything and ignore any reality to get their agenda.

A pox on all their houses.

That's a pity BW, how's the MTBing in Norway? I feel sorry for a lot of the foreigners I know having to put up with the ridiculous bigoted attitudes being shown by so many these days.

I think both sides on the debate have their bad sides, but whilst May could quite reasonably have agreed to limit the scope of Brexit, she's chosen not to and is looking at all possible reductions in the level of devolution she can implement, after those nice folks at Westminster told us we'd be getting huge increases in devolution (and staying in the EU) if we just voted to stay in the UK.

I don't really think independence is the answer, but it could be part of it.

What was the local conclusion Phil?

Analysts from the Scottish Parliament Information Centre concluded that the fiscal changes set out in the Smith Commission would mean [b]Holyrood was one of the most economically powerful devolved parliaments in the world, compared to federal systems like Germany and Switzerland[/b]

The [b]Scottish [/b] Parliament Information Centre....

Rule Britannia 8)

[b]WARNING: CONTAINS A LOT OF SWEARING[/b]

THM, I made no claims about the current level of devolution, but about the changes which were being sought.

Would Westminster not be better offering Devo Max in the next one and outflanking the SNP; or are they worried that the SNP would build their case for another ballot in a few years?

eat the pudding - the SNP governments have done a lot to improve the lives of Scots
We have no false internal market in the NHS saving 10% of costs
We have no one being evicted from their houses under the bedroom tax

Just two of many examples

Much of what the SNP would like to do they cannot because Holyrood does not have the power Things like making income tax and benefit tapers less regressive

Alternatively, one can consider the "real" reasons why the SNP backtracked on raising income tax

Laffer anyone?!?

There is therefore likely to be a significant revenue risk associated with increases to the Scottish additional rate of income tax above that applicable in the rest of the UK. [b]A further risk will impact on future tax revenues where an increased additional rate of tax reduces the attractiveness of locating in Scotland in the future and reduces the potential economic and tax growth rates[/b]. HMRC’s enforcement and compliance processes ensure that individuals do not manipulate their address without genuinely relocating residence from Scotland. Some of the behaviour effects will be from legitimate migration from Scotland, either for an individual to commute to Scotland from outside Scotland, or to simply fully relocate residence and employment away from Scotland.

That's a pity BW, how's the MTBing in Norway? I feel sorry for a lot of the foreigners I know having to put up with the ridiculous bigoted attitudes being shown by so many these days.

Well, not great with all the snow. Snow biking is fun for about five minutes but at some point you just want to ride your bike rather than pushing all the time. Also, my time in the saddle's not been helped much by the fact that I've had two surgeries in the past six weeks, one to get my appendix out and one to have a perianal abscess drained. A perianal abscess somehow manages to be less fun than it sounds 🙂

Still, couple more months and Åre will be open 🙂

Delighted to see that Mrs May has listened to the will of the Scottish people and said that this is not the correct time for another referendum.

I would probably be back in Glasgow within the year if it wasn't for Brexit. I have an Italian girlfriend and two kids born in Norway.We were planning on moving back but the absolutely toxic attitudes towards foreigners

That's a bit harsh, Glasgow isn't [b][i]that[/i][/b] bad, making it out to be some sort of racist hell hole just shows how little you know about Scotland.

Mundell has added - "it's not fair" 😆

“And more than that, I think it wouldn’t be fair to the people of Scotland because they’re being asked to make a crucial decision without all the necessary information - without knowing what the future partnership would be, or what the alternative of an independent Scotland would look like.”

Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/theresa-may-will-block-indyref2-until-after-brexit-1-4393668

Change the wording in the quote above from Scotland to UK to see what hypocritical nonsense it is.

If May really does attemp0t to block a referendum all she is doing is making independence more likely

That's a bit harsh, Glasgow isn't that bad, making it out to be some sort of racist hell hole just shows how little you know about Scotland.

That's a bit harsh, Glasgow isn't that bad, making it out to be some sort of racist hell hole just shows how little you know about Scotland.

I maybe didn't make myself clear. It's the xenophobic and racist policies the government is proposing like making firms publish the number of foreigners they employ and getting schools make up lists of foreign born kids that scares me. Until my family can be protected from this sociopathic government I don't want them back in the UK

If I thought Glasgow was a racist hellhole I wouldn't be so homesick for the place 🙂

Phil your right I don't know Brucewee 😀 but I have a good nose for horseshit.

"making firms publish the number of foreigners they employ and getting schools make up lists of foreign born kids that scares me"

To be fair to us between 2003 and fairly recently we were actively helping to slaughter brown people on a completely fictional pretext. If all we're doing now is writing lists of Europeans we're moving in the right direction, you could give us some credit for that.

Vote on something that is tangible or

Vote on something that is unknown (unless you are Nicola the clairvoyant)

Which is more sensible?
Which would the party with more to hide push and how (cue: "the nasty Westminster Tories are pursuing a hard Brexshit") ?

Obvious and sensible response from May. Neither agree nor rule out. She's getting better at this stuff surprisingly.

The proposed timing is poor on all counts, other than for mischief makers/narcissists

teamhurtmore - Member
Vote on something that is tangible or

The rest of us are in the dark about brexit, tbf!

I think if permission is refused she will use that to increase support and hold one anyway without Westminster permission.

If she does that then the simple response from the no majority would be to just ignore it and not bother voting. If both sides are not engaged in the process then westminster would have every right to ignore the result.

I'm not in favour of the next Holyrood election being some sort of gating factor as regards the next referendum or it basically [i]becomes [/i] a referendum. I can see why the Tories would like it. They'd expect the Unionist vote to coalesce round them, basically forcing Scotland into a two party split with Labour, Greens and LibDems all squeezed out. It would then be up to D'Hondt to determine the number of MSPS.

"Obvious and sensible response from May. Neither agree nor rule out."

Agree. Put it off forever is the least worst option.

The UK should never hold a Referendum again IMHO, unless there really is no 'wrong' answer.