Scotland Indyref 2

scotroutes - Member
I'm not in favour of the next Holyrood election being some sort of gating factor as regards the next referendum or it basically becomes a referendum. I can see why the Tories would like it. They'd expect the Unionist vote to coalesce round them, basically forcing Scotland into a two party split with Labour, Greens and LibDems all squeezed out. It would then be up to D'Hondt to determine the number of MSPS.

Smartest thing would be for the SNP to accept the principle. then not run on it at the next election, leave till 2025 or so then run on it..

**** canny believe I'm talking about 2025 as if it's no far away, I'm getting on a bit! 😆

Much of what the SNP would like to do they cannot because Holyrood does not have the power Things like making income tax and benefit tapers less regressive

Holyrood has had the power to vary income tax up or down by 3p for nearly 20 years and has never used that power. In fact last year even more income tax powers have been devolved.

tpbiker - Member

I think if permission is refused she will use that to increase support and hold one anyway without Westminster permission.

If she does that then the simple response from the no majority would be to just ignore it and not bother voting. If both sides are not engaged in the process then westminster would have every right to ignore the result.

Thats the danger that the unionists boycott it and a low turnout would make it difficult / impossible to claim its the settled will of the people unless more than half the POSSIBLE voters voted yes

corbyn has said tho its up to the scots - I can't see labour going for a boycott although the lib dems and Tories might. As a significant part of the scottish labour party want independence and a lot of their voters do it would be suicide for Labour in scotland to boycott

KennyP - yes and the powers that Holyrood have remain very limited and are designed in such a way as to make any changes unworkable. Quite right not to use the 3p power. Holyrood does not have the power to make major changes to rtes, to thresholds, to0 allowances or to anything but crude changes to rates

Holyrood has had the power to vary income tax up or down by 3p for nearly 20 years and has never used that power.

Like many of the devolved powers, it appears to give some responsibility without fear of anyone ever using it.

Thats the danger that the unionists boycott it and a low turnout would make it difficult / impossible to claim its the settled will of the people unless more than half the POSSIBLE voters voted yes

Not even that as then the arguement could be made that as no didn't even campaign, the result, even if 50% said yes, is void.

I don't see how voting now is in scotlands best interests. Surely if brexit is going to be a disaster as sturgeon says it will (i agree) then the sensible thing is to wait it out, see what happens and then go to the pools.

As a committed no voter last time, i'm less sure this time round, however i don't want to be making the decision based on not knowing the landscape from either side.

Sturgeon clearly wants to use the uncertainty to her own ends, this is not what is in the best intrests of Scotland. She doesn't want to take the chance that brexit will be a huge success, which is irresponsible and opportunist. The woman should spend the next 2 years running the country, which is her job.

[quote=tpbiker ]The woman should spend the next 2 years running the country, which is her job.That's a nice soundbite but we also criticise our politicians for only concentrating on the current parliament and getting to the next election without considering the more strategic, long-term commitments necessary to develop our country. There's never a 10, 15, 20+ year plan in place.

And if uncertainty is a bad thing, do we really need the current Brexit uncertainty, a settling-in period of uncertainty and then yet another indy campaign uncertainty? I'd much rather it was all got over with at the same time, one way or the other.

bit daft for the tories to come out and completely reject the section 30 thing before it's even been voted for in the Scottish Parliament.

Gives the SNP a very easy argument.

scotroutes

one way or the other.

Sensible.
Personally, thats why I always cross the road without looking, wearing my headphones and refusing to acknowledge traffic from [i]either[/i] direction 🙂

seosamh77

bit daft for the tories to come out and completely reject the section 30 thing before it's even been voted for in the Scottish Parliament.

Gives the SNP a very easy argument.

Maybe they think it'll force the SNP to explain to the scottish people why they think its the [i]right[/i] time? (even though the polls show a vast majority of scots saying "not now").

EDIT
Even harder for the green party (ha!) to make their manifesto case for the surge in Scottish public opinion they said they were waiting for. There is clearly no surge in favour.

even though the polls show a vast majority of scots saying "not now"

Source?

Given that something like 45% of Scots would vote for independence its difficult to see how a "vast majority" can be against holding a vote that would allow them to do just that

That's a nice soundbite but we also criticise our politicians for only concentrating on the current parliament and getting to the next election without considering the more strategic, long-term commitments necessary to develop our country. There's never a 10, 15, 20+ year plan in place.

There is a balance to be had and you can't tell me with a straight face that you think sturgeon does that. If we have a ref in 2018 then pretty much 4 of the last 6 years will have been spent camapaigning full on for independence. What has she actually achieved up until now in role for scotland? I'm not seing alot of output from her tbh.

Scotland could come out of this mess smalling of roses if we wait until after brexit. We've managed 300 yesrs in the union, why so desperate to leave now?

Bring back Maggie

[img] :large[/img]

eat_the_pudding - Member

Maybe they think it'll force the SNP to explain to the scottish people why they think its the right time? (even though the polls show a vast majority of scots saying "not now").

Is there any evidence Mrs T ever actually made that quote? I've been Googling and can't see any. Am not 100% saying she didn't say it, but it seems highly unlikely given her normal views.

tpbiker the timing is as it has to be because it would make remaining in the EU much easier

I'm sure they will think that. On the other hand, it just looks like the tories dictating to scotland. SNP get their result. Tories also get the result they're after too. Further polarises the british/scottish nationalist nature of scotland.

This

ever since the brexit result (and the promises made by No in the indyref) this very situation has been coming,

(massively helped along by May's poorly thought out speech in Glasgow and threats of repatriating powers 2 weeks ago)

Assuming what Mrs May meant was that she would agree to a referendum after Brexit has happened, what is the problem? If, as the SNP say, Scotland will sail quite happily into the EU then the timing is largely irrelevant? If Scotland has (supposedly) waited 300 years for independence, what's another year or two?

And given that just about every opinion poll says that the majority of Scots do not want another referendum, surely Mrs May is just going along with the wishes of the majority of the Scottish people? And going along with the wishes of the Scottish people is what Nicola is always demanding she do.

kennyp - Member
And given that just about every opinion poll says

kennyp

And given that just about every opinion poll [b]conducted by tory think tanks[/b] says that the majority of Scots do not want another referendum, surely Mrs May is just going along with the wishes of the majority of the Scottish people?

You're welcome

Well. Apart fro the fact that they can still stick to the manifesto pledge, they just can't dictate the timing. The problem is, the only way the SNP stand a chance of winning this is if they manipulate everything they can in their favour. Don't really see why the UK govt should have to allow them that advantage.

You're welcome

Care to show us some polls you regard as independent (if you'll pardon the pun) then?

And what evidence do you have that the polling organisations whose results you don't like are in fact "tory think tanks"? Or are you just saying that?

Well, question to that is, what trumps what? A manifesto pledge and a majority in the scottish parliament, or opinion polls...

A fair question indeed. Yes, it was in their manifesto pledge so they have every right to request a referendum. Equally though, the majority of voters in that election voted for parties who are in favour of not splitting the UK, and current opinion polls suggest it is a minority of Scots who want another referendum.

If anything I guess it forwards the case for PR being a fairer voting system than first past the post.

Or that we have a referendum on whether we have another referendum.

imnotverygood
Well. Apart fro the fact that they can still stick to the manifesto pledge, they just can't dictate the timing. The problem is, [b]the only way the SNP stand a chance of winning this is if they manipulate everything they can in their favour[/b]. Don't really see why the UK govt should have to allow them that advantage.

They're already playing it pretty well - by making noises about another indy referendum before brexit negotiations have even begun they've also strengthened the hand of the EU negotiators - fishing / farming / oil / renewable energy etc. etc. based in Scotland are all bargaining chips for the UK when seeking a good deal leaving the EU, the EU could turn round & say they'd welcome Scotland with open arms & have access to those industries anyway...

The SNP also made it abundantly clear in their manifesto that they'd seek another referendum if the political landscape (i.e. brexit) changed & were still democratically elected, voters knew this - it's not like they promised never to do it again, everyone knew it was always a matter of time & it will be.

By saying she'd refuse a second referendum Teresa May is only bolstering the pro-independence cause & gives Nicola Sturgeon free reign to portray her as running roughshod over the democratic process - it's not just rabid Scottish nationalists that voted against brexit...

kennyp
Care to show us some polls you regard as independent (if you'll pardon the pun) then?

Ok, forget I said anything...

However - would you then care to show me a sample of polls [i]you[/i] regard as independent, displaying statistical significance in support of [i]your[/i] original claim?

[b]And given that just about every opinion poll says that the majority of Scots do not want another referendum[/b]

?

KennyP - the majority of the electorate voted for pro independence parties and the majority of the parliament is pro independence. SNP. Green (and RISE) well over 50% of the vote

[quote=tjagain ]KennyP - the majority of the electorate voted for pro independence parties and the majority of the parliament is pro independence. SNP. Green (and RISE) well over 50% of the vote

Aye, but in a General Election, folk are voting on a range of issues. That's the danger of putting off another referendum until after the next Holyrood GE - it becomes Kenny's referendum on a referendum by default!

It would be churlish to believe, however, that folk voting SNP were not aware of their desire for independence.

Just correcting Kenny when he said the majority voted for pro union parties

NOT True!

You're confusing seats with votes

Just imagine Brussels had told the UK that they are not allowed to have a referendum. That's the difference between Scotland's 'two Unions.'

KennyP - the majority of the electorate voted for pro independence parties

Don't think they did. By my calculations the combined SNP/Green vote was 2,177,000 and the combined Tory/Labour/Liberal vote was 2,272,000.

If you are going to include the minor parties then the pro-union parties still got more votes than the pro-separation parties.

Where are you getting your figures from?

Just correcting TJ when he said the majority voted for pro independence parties.

Aye, but in a General Election, folk are voting on a range of issues.

Indeed, and it has been suggested that a fair number of folk who voted SNP did so because the Labour Party was in such disarray, rather than any desire for another referendum. Of course at that point the Brexit result was unknown.

Just imagine Brussels had told the UK that they are not allowed to have a referendum.

And had Mrs May told Scotland another referendum was totally not allowed I would have disagreed with her 100%. All she said was that this is not the right time, and opinion polls rather tend to suggest she is in tune with public feeling.

Ok, forget I said anything...

Until you back up your jibe about "tory think tanks" then I'm happy to.

Kenny - I did have a look and it depends what values you take constituency or list votes or an average of both.

Certainly the majority in parliament is pro independence

Just imagine Brussels had told the UK that they are not allowed to have a referendum. That's the difference between Scotland's 'two Unions.'

The two unions are completely different, particularly in their legal structure. One is an international treaty, one is an internal domestic matter.

The UK membership of the EU is legally for the UK parliament to determine. The UK parliament can choose to leave if it wishes. Brussels has no say in the matter.

UK constitutional affairs are reserved to the UK parliament too. So under UK law, a referendum on constitutional matters is a matter for the UK parliament. That's also the position of international law - internal devolution is an internal matter for sovereign governments to determine.

That's the law. Do we not follow the law in this country?

(Before someone suggests it: In international law, self-determination is secondary to territorial integrity. UDI is not a lawful option and self-determination does not permit votes to break up a state.)

[quote=tjagain ]Just imagine Brussels had told the UK that they are not allowed to have a referendum. That's the difference between Scotland's 'two Unions.'

The only difference?

kennyp
Until you back up your jibe about "tory think tanks" then I'm happy to.

Smashing, any further forward on this monumental list of anti-independence opinion polls & i'll point them out to you? 😆

[b]And given that just about every opinion poll says that the majority of Scots do not want another referendum[/b]

tpbiker the timing is as it has to be because it would make remaining in the EU much easier

Wasnt aware of that. Not saying its not true, but where has this been stated? Any definitive proof of this?

I want whats best for scotland. Waiting seems to mehe best option

TJ, I took the results from the 2015 wiki page. I totalled up the number of votes cast for each party, both constituency and list.

Am happy to have my arithmetic proved wrong, but not seeing yet where/if I've made a mistake. What figures do you get and from where?

Am also happy to admit the SNP did win the majority of the seats, but still contend that the majority of voters did not vote for pro-independence parties.

PS off out now so won't see any reply for a few hours.

tpbiker
The theory is that Scotland would remain in the EU and the rUK would leave both the UK and the EU at the same time. Its much easier for a fudge to be found that would allow Scotland continuing membership than leaving the EU as part of the UK then reapplying as iScotland

Its not a sure fire thing but we know that most in the EU would like Scotland to continue as a member for a whole load of reasons not least of which is the fishing and the oil

Its cool Kenny. Your arithmetic is correct.

Smashing, any further forward on this monumental list of anti-independence opinion polls & i'll point them out to you?

Here you go then... [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39264468 ]opinion polls[/url]

Cheers TJ......I have been proved wrong about these things many times before admittedly!!

(-:

And will be again.