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Single market in a decade due to economic problems, then rejoin 20 years after that when people finally realise it’s better to be part of the rule making process.
Once we've let natural wastage remove the demographics keen on Brexit and the politicians who were all for it 🙂
How are you going to convince the eu to allow a rejoining? We have caused nothing but trouble since joining. The uk has been detrimental to the EU holding up important projects and disrupting parliament
No it hasn't.
It has twodogs. From electing ukippers to numerous instances of delaying projectsg threatening vetos etc
The UK has made a very substantial financial contribution, it's played a very significant role in the development of the EU (single market!) and things like scientific cooperation would be much stronger for their presence. We are also a useful counterbalance to the might of Germany/France who are likely to dominate to a greater extent now.
There were of course stupid political spats, and I'm sure these will continue to take place in our absence. But until 2016, that never seriously threatened the whole project. Well, even since 2016, the UK's behaviour didn't threaten the project, just caused a bit of a nuisance.
It has twodogs
You're wrong but I can't be arsed arguing. Several people have explained why the UK would be welcomed back, but you're ignoring anything they say.
(Do you really think that the EU didn't recognise that UKIP MEPs were the extreme end of a spectrum and that the vast majority of UK MEPs were hardworking and wanted to be there. Also, every country has their share of extremist MEPs)
Im not ignoring - I am disagreeing. Yes the UK was a contributor but it also has caused huge trouble over the years
Its not just the extremist UKIPPERs - its decades of intransigence of blocking and delaying projects of threatening vetos etc etc
I know from discussions with EU journalists that in private many politicians in the EU are glad to see the back of the UK. They will not say it in public of course but in off the record briefings they will.
This is the reality - that the UK will not be welcomed back. Its caused too much damage to the EU over the 40 years of membership
in many ways our folly has been useful to the EU. when i was in germany a couple of years ago a colleague mentioned to me they used to see stuff in german media mooting the idea of leaving the EU quite often. since we'd made the decision to leave and the subsequent fallout was starting to take shape they said they hadn't heard a thing about german departure since. One can only imagine that lesson has been well reinforced by now.
there will be a deal to be done and we will do it. we'll be on the shitty end of it and grateful for it when it comes. hopefully at least others will reap the benefit of our experience rather than having to go through it themselves.
we won't 'rejoin the EU' we will 'realign ourselves with key markets' or some such euphemism in the shorter term.
The EU would have UK/rUK back in a heartbeat. However, it would have to know that there was a significant majority in favour of re-joining. Both main parties would need to be committed to it. For that reason alone, I think we're looking at two electoral cycles, 10 to 12 years.
Having said that, many forms of re-alignment could take place in the meantime. That would make the eventual process quicker and would show that the UK/rUK was willing.
Where are you getting that timescale from ?.
Other countries that have successfully joined. It took Poland 10 years from April 94 to May 2004 for example.
Mefty is right about UK growth, it's as good as its neighbours. The problems The UK is running into are down to the way that growth was achieved because they are unsustainable, as with its neighbours with equal growth - mainly borrowing and printing money which has led to inflation. The way the increase in wealth created is distributed is however, not comparable with the neighbours.
Whilst I was dismayed by the leave vote in 2016 I don't want the UK back in the EU with either current Tory or Labour parties in charge, it wouldn't work
If ever we do re-join could we get the EU to make sure there’s some law in place (like the UK) where people have to pick their dogs crap up? Cos it doesn’t seem to happen in Spain.
Dog shite everywhere.
Is it also English exceptionalism to pretend that the rest of Europe didn't have their own UKIP-style w@nkers?
Some sort of SM/CU hybrid sans free movement that we pay 'subs' for by 2027- everybody pretending it's 'just' to smooth the UK/Ireland border situation - followed by a few years of mission-creep, concessions on free movement, agreements on scope of EU Supreme Court etc, followed by a re-join referendum in every Party manifesto c.2030-something, then full membership by 2035.
Some sort of SM/CU hybrid sans free movement
Dream on.
Dream on.
Yes, thanks, i will.
Obviously this is all predicated on the next UK Government being NOT a Tory one - be it a Labour majority one, or a Lab/Lib*/SNP*/ *delete as appropriate coalition one - this is the first and most necessary step.
I think it's well within our collective creative capabilities, Continent wide, to concoct some sort of fudge that opens at least a Customs Union that can be unhitched from FoM - in the short term we need to throw some sort of bone to the rabid dogs.
The biggest question to answer is whether we'd be welcomed back in the first place.
The Norway deal is the best you can hope for and yes they have freedom of movement. You want free trade with the EU you sign up to the four freedoms. No if buts or maybes that's the way it is and the UK is the last country on earth the EU will make and exception for because they know that behind their back Brits are calling them rabid dogs.
One of the comicla aspects of Brexit from this side of the channel was the way British politicians were bragging about how they were going to do the dirty on the EU with cake and eating it etc. as if nobody on this side of the Channel was in ear shot.
No exceptions will be made other than those that favour the survival of the Good Friday Agreement which is in danger since Brexit. The EU will be on Ireland's side which inevitably means confronting Westminster.
Your attitude mirrors the right wing UK gutter press, Vazaha, The EU parliament knows all about it from Farrage and co., every foreigner who has driven on foreign plates in the UK knows it, everyone who has spoken a foreign language in a Midlands ASDA shopping queue knows it. You lot* hate us and just want to rip us off. Or enough of you do for the EU to want to keep you at arms' length.
That's how Europeans see the UK, a rogue state specialising in money laundering, investing in tax havens, social dumping and tea at 4 o'clock.
No freedom of movement = no free trade. You lot* threw away your only chance of fudging that by leaving and throwing away your EU parliament seat.
Yours faithfully, a rabid dog.
* a variable percentage of the UK population, check out the opinion polls. Remainers ignore this post, you knew the score and know the score, and I sysmpathise.
View from France (been mixing with people that my daughter is working with)… Ireland is the new England. Much, much, much further travel wise… but you can take the kids there without buying passports, and the welcome feels genuine. Then, when out last night… after those conversations… noticed how many Irish couples and families were out for the evening. Interesting. Oh, we did encounter a group English lads… they managed to empty a packed bar with their behaviour. We are still exceptional in some ways. 😔
There is certainly a route back into the EU but if you think you can unhitch it from FOM then you still haven't got the point. It's an integral part of the package, no ifs or buts
The thing that's crippling the UK is being outside of the Customs Union.
Whatever deal has to be struck to regain that is the only deal worth striking.
I guess that means full membership in reality.
@edukator I think he was referring to our own rabid dogs, not sure why you're giving him shit either, I thought you liked remainers/rejoiners?
I don’t want the UK back in the EU with either current Tory or Labour parties in charge, it wouldn’t work
The Labour party and the sane wing of the Tories want to be back in the EU. But they know that they have to appeal to Brexiteers to gain power so they can't actually say that. When the current lot of nutjob Tories eventually collapse, they'll start moving us back EU-wards.
Some sort of SM/CU hybrid sans free movement
I wouldn't vote for that even if it was on offer. Not that it ever would be.
We never agree on anythingn, Squirrelking, so naturally I think he's calling EU rabid dogs for being (rightly) fanatical about freedom of movement. The paragraph is all about the EU and how he is going to fudge their rules in his own interest but in the mean time is going to throw them a bone which I interpreted as being nice to the EU.
We've been talking free trade and freedom of movement for about 7 years on STW and some people still haven't grasped that the EU isn't going to dissociate the the two (or four) freedoms for a nation that walked out having farted in the room.
Unrealistic rejoiners are part of the problem. Get real, that's why I typed "dream on" at the pie in the sky speculation about how the UK is going change the EU rules to make what the UK wants possible. You can't have your ckae and eat it, Boris was talking bollocks as usual.
Why would Germany want the UK back? You're still buying German cars and stuff.
Why would France want the UK back when Toyota amongst others has shifted investments to France but Brits still ski in Val.
43% of EU stocks used to be traded in the UK, check out the number now.
The won't be launching into Farrage style gloating but a lot of people in Europe are benefitting from Brexit. They're just quietly getting on with buisiness with one less competitor.
It seems many people have a problem with democracy. Lefties always are the worst tyrants.
It seems many people have a problem with democracy
The way it's working for us, yes. It's resulted in the majority of UK citizens becoming worse off. It's always been the case that the democratic process has been manipulated by those with power, and modern communication have enabled deeper manipulation. Democracy is still the least bad option, not least because it allows debate on forums such as this about how it might be improved.
Don’t feed the rather below average troll.
The Beautiful/tragic (delete as appropriate) irony is the brexit vote was a non-confirmational, a non legaly binding finger in the air vote, that then suddenly became 'what we had to do'.
If it was a legally binding vote/referendum from the outset, then there would be far more checks and balances, plans would have to be pre-designed for the consequences. None of that happened.
It's the most stupid thing to happen in my living history, and possibly the history of the entire human race.
The paragraph is all about the EU and how he is going to fudge their rules in his own interest but in the mean time is going to throw them a bone which I interpreted as being nice to the EU.
Whereas I read it as a viable way to drip feed our reintegration with Europe to the hard of thinking.
I dont think for a minute it's as easy as just saying we're bored and want back into the party. We ****ed up. Hard. Whilst we weren't thrown out we were the loudmouth **** that criticised the house, the hosts and guests before strolling off shouting about the better party down the road that didn't turn out to be anything.
The UK, as a whole, isn't going to get back in without a lot of diplomacy, a lot of cooperation and a lot of commitment.
I think you have misinterpreted what i was trying to say - it will take a lot of humility on our part if we are to undo this.
The way back into the EU would probably require a little bit of help from the EU to placate the headbangers/rabid dogs on these shores, but you are absolutely right, that would require the will to assist us in the first place.
Certainly listening to the words of Guy Verhofstadt recently it would seem there might be some appetite for it, but how widespread that view is i don't pretend to know.
I still think that Scotland becoming independent could be a route for the rest of the UK (Wales,England NI) to deal indirectly with the EU via a hard border between Scotland and England, which is a lot less problematic that a hard border between the Irish states.
It would certainly throw a hell of a lot of money into that section of the UK. Good for Scotland, good for a long deprived northern England.
Thanks for the clarification.
Again you want the EU to change to suit the UK's needs. What's really needed is a sea change in UK attitudes. THere aren't over 50% of "headbangers/rabid dogs" in the UK yet over 50% voted Brexit, why?
Because they'd been subjected to over 40 years of anti-EU propaganda. The EU doesn't need to placate anyone in the UK, the UK needs to sort out its own issues the main one of which is disinformation. Remember Jamba of this forum, if you don't go back and read the original Brexit thread. He promoted Brexit with a series of misthruths, distortions, invented facts and some of us methodically produced the evidence he was wrong. Bollocks doesn't do too well on STW, but in the rest of society it thrives. Feed a few snippets to those xenophobes down the pub and they'll lap it up and tell all their mates who pass it on without ever bothering to check because most people don't.
It's the way propaganda works, the bigger the lie the easier it is to sell. And even if you get caught you just tell another lie and people tend to remember the lie rather than the truth. 350 million you remember, do you remember the real figure? And Johnson doubled down saying it was too low a couple of years later.
The UK is at the mercy of a few business sharks and media/press barons who don't have Britains best interests at heart which isn't surprising because they they rarely set foot in the place.
The EU shouldn't even consider making concessions until there is a popular enthusiasm for the EU in the UK, not just "we need to rejoin the EU for all its ills because we're ****ed if we don't". That sums up many remainers' attitude: a necessary evil rather than a union that makes its members stronger and benefits the citizens of those member states. Because it does.
This British idea of being picky and just having the bits you want was tolerated remarkably well, I hope the EU has learned from its mistakes and treats Britain like any other state wishing to join - commit to the whole package or bugger off.
You were doing so well, I was actually with you up until this point:
The EU shouldn’t even consider making concessions until there is a popular enthusiasm for the EU in the UK, not just “we need to rejoin the EU for all its ills because we’re **** if we don’t”. That sums up many remainers’ attitude: a necessary evil rather than a union that makes its members stronger and benefits the citizens of those member states. Because it does.
That's just bollocks, I don't think I've ever met an actual remainer of that opinion much less many.
The EU shouldn’t even consider making concessions until there is a popular enthusiasm for the EU in the UK, not just “we need to rejoin the EU for all its ills because we’re **** if we don’t”. That sums up many remainers’ attitude: a necessary evil rather than a union that makes its members stronger and benefits the citizens of those member states. Because it does.
I think this describes the attitude of those who wanted to leave and are now realizing what a balls-up it was, rather than the attitude of those who never wanted to leave in the first place. Other than that, though, I completely agree. The UK was always a drag on the EU, never a willing participant.
Read the original Brexit thread, Squirelking, and note remainers' attitudes to the EU. the "project fear" thing was real, people didn't vote remain because of their love of the EU, they voted remain because they realised that leaving the EU would cause them pain. You had a series of remain politicians from the cabinet and shadow cabinet selling remaining in the EU as nasty medecine but if you don't take you'll come out in a rash.
I have a challenge for you Sqirrelking, find an article selling the EU as a fantastic organisation that has improved people's quality of life, made work safer, caused the economy to boom, beaches cleaner, food healthier, air cleaner, cars safer, electrical appliances safer, homes safer, phoning cheaper, medication safer, drinking water safer, children's toys safer, travel safer and easier, poor regions better funded, education better funded, research better organised and funded... .
Even the reaminers I know were in the necessary evil camp, do have a look at the original Brexit thread. I was very careful not to be too enthusiastic about the EU fearing it might create a backlash that would lose rather than gain remain votes. I ignored the criticisms, sympathised even, and mainly concentrated on denouncing the misinformation.
But yeah, the EU's been good to me even if it means my humble extension is as much reinforced concrete as brick to meet Euro 8 seismic regs.
If you agree with democracy, and you believe the system is legitimate (i.e. not corrupt), you have to accept the majority vote. If you can't, you should just be honest and admit you don't want the plebs to have a say and you would rather live under authoritarian rule - this is why lefties are often just as bad as those in 'power' whom they criticise.
That’s just bollocks, I don’t think I’ve ever met an actual remainer of that opinion much less many.
+1 to that.
The UK was always a drag on the EU, never a willing participant.
I think this take is rather too simplistic.
Sure at the highest level there was always some eurosceptic playing to the gallery. On many practical topics however, the UK was a significant participant and contributor. Scientific collaboration is one case close to my heart. And it was Thatcher who pushed the whole single market, or so we are regularly told (a bit before my time in terms of detailed political consciousness).
There's often been a bit of euroscepticism in the domestic politics of many other EU member states. Don't make this another case of UK (English?) exceptionalism.
There’s often been a bit of euroscepticism in the domestic politics of many other EU member states. Don’t make this another case of UK (English?) exceptionalism.
I was going to say the same thing. What did represent was one of the bigger countries in the EU that represented this view that was more common amongst lots of the smaller countries.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-uk-truss-eu-polls-b2162047.html
Interesting to note that 80% of 18-24 year olds would vote to rejoin the EU. (Actually that's the same percentage of that age bracket who'd have voted to remain when polled in 2018).
Brexit is being increasingly clearly shown to be the economic disaster that was predicted. I don't see us suddenly rejoining but I wouldn't be surprised if we were back in and in the Euro by 2035.
I remember going through the age vs voting preference data when the vote happened and coming to the conclusion that we'd see a 1% swing towards remain each year as more leave voters died and more remain voters turned 18. Bizarre to be in a situation where it's considered more democratic for the wishes of dead people to be more important than the wishes of anyone aged under 24!
If you agree with democracy, and you believe the system is legitimate (i.e. not corrupt), you have to accept the majority vote
No, not really. Democracy isn't a single thing, it's a method, and like any method it can be done badly or done well. I might make a terrible cake but that does not mean baking is bad, it just means I did something wrong with my baking.
Democracy needs a few things. It needs education, primarily, beceause asking someone's opinion on something they know little about is worthless; and campaigning to persuade someone to vote with you when they don't know anything about the topic is clearly open to abuse. It also needs moderation, because extreme views should not be allowed to make radical changes immediately on a whim.
I believe in good democracy, not bad democracy.
You need to separate populism from democracy.. it's one of the problems of referenda.. you just need to pick the question to give the answer you want and do your groundwork.
It's also irrelevant to the UK rejoining, as the majority in the EU aren't so interested in that if it means a lot of mess, and fudging, for what? You're not going to get a compromise on one of the four fundamental pillars just because it suits UK internal politic and a desire to have the have the cake and eat it
And continuing on, democracy is a method and a process, not an event.
The 2016 51.9:48.1 vote was an event. It was accepted, we left, that’s now history.
Perfectly reasonable to start trying to rejoin now.
Whether the EU would have us of course…
SM without FoM makes no sense from the UK perspective because such a significant proportion of our exports are service-based anyway. All those musicians popping over for a concert, scientists (me) spending a few months (or years) abroad, all sorts of engineering support. Visas etc make this all just impractical. Well yeah ok for a 3 year research post it is often practical enough to get a visa, but that still excludes a whole lot of important stuff, possibly including your family...
As I said, even if it was on offer, I wouldn't vote for it.
Whether the EU would have us of course…
You think all these institutions are separate, not heads of the same hydra. How sweet and naive.
We do not live in a democracy of any sort. It is a sham. Voting for one of two parties in rigged elections, to elect one party that is controlled by the same hidden hand. Not being able to influence a single thing that party does once in power. I can only think you have a great sense of humour if you consider that democracy.
The fact that Leave won was surprising to me - even though I knew it was the majority view among the proles, I did not think the powers that be would allow that to happen. I concluded it must have been part of a very 5D chess move, the longer-term implications of which few of us are aware. Although less regulation had to be in there for the banksters who run the 'UK' / city of London.
Direct democracy (anarchism) is the only way to break the perpetual loop of stupidity we have been in for centuries/millennia.
Loving your work. I think you’re looking for conspiracy where there is mainly incompetence though.
I’m old enough to remember a few different regimes in the UK, and trust me they weren’t all the same.