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TheGingerOne
Full Member
Why do the Scottish think that as soon as they are independent they can just magically join the EU
They don't. They think it would be a process of negotiation between two parties acting in good will.
Signed
One of "the Scottish "
Ie. before Brexit the UK’s GDP was 90%if Germany, now it’s 70%.
This is based on a Mark Carney quote and it is wrong, UK and German growth since the Brexit vote has been pretty much the same.
I felt this was a very good point of view on rejoining. At least they explain that it was really only a few that forced the issue by threatening to split the conservative party.
in order
informed democracy.
a massive education campaign, that provides a clear-eyed, unbiased overview of the benefits and costs of being in the EU, that isn't run by the express, mail and wetherspoons. just data and verified facts. then, another referendum with exact options.
only then, armed with a proper, informed mandate, we join the queue.
that isn’t run by the express, mail and wetherspoons.
Or shady companies targeting Facebook users with Ads based on psychological warfare techniques
There is next to zero chance of england rejoining. Even if they want to it will be vetoed.
Independent Scotland will rejoin.
Wales needs to decided where it wants to go
NI will become part of a united Ireland
Even if they want to it will be vetoed
No it won't
Are you sure about that?
English msps behaved so badly as did english politicians in general. Why would the eu want them back in?
I think the french would veto any attempt to rejoin
Why do the Scottish think that as soon as they are independent they can just magically join the EU?
Would they actually meet the criteria or is it just more political BS from that one trick pony politician?
Why?
Because the people responsible for deciding membership want us to join - that's it, simples.
Have you not been paying attention over these 6 long years - politics over-rides everything.
Are you sure about that?
Yep, the EU would have us back. They've said as much
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/brexit-was-loss-for-the-world-guy-verhofstadt/
Both Europeans and their leadership think so.
I think the quickest route would be independent Scotland > rejoins EU > makes the case clear by doing proportionally well vs rUK. In England Labour wins next GE and remains in power for 2 terms, gradually rows it back e.g by rejoining the customs union, then maybe towards the end of the second term they could go back in using Scotland’s success as the justification. Not saying any of that will happen, but would be the quickest plausible way I can think it might. I do think over that timescale the EU would welcome rUK back but not on same terms as before.
The eu beaurocrats may have said that but national leaders?
Im sure it will be vetoed
This is based on a Mark Carney quote and it is wrong, UK and German growth since the Brexit vote has been pretty much the same.
Not like someone of his level to quote incorrectly, but by my calcs (Google) in 2016 we were 78% the size and in 2020 we were 75%.
Quoted here too, but was he misquoted?
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/one-word-led-us-here-brexit-jonty-bloom/
"There is a sunlit upland out there. It is further away than it used to be and harder to reach. But at least we may soon stop marching blindly in the opposite direction."
If Scotland left the UK, it would take a further wait of 5+ years of stable economy, government & then a positive referendum before the EU would accept membership. In reality probably longer. Yes the EU would like Scotland to join, but not if it's detrimental to the EU.
As for the UK rejoining, it's going to be a 10year wait at least, just for the conversation to happen. For the same reasons above, & even then it would require a strong proportion of the population to vote for rejoining. Personally I can't see that happening - economic & social recovery from Brexit will probably put a 30<50 year minimal timeline for rejoining.
Westminster have completely moved on, they're not interested now despite it being detrimental to the economy. I've said it before on here, as a business owner that imports and exports, Brexit has been an absolute sh1t show. Like the OP, i / we see the direct implications that this has created and there isn't one single benefit that i have seen yet.
I reckon in about a decade the government will be ready to admit this has been a glaring mistake. As to how it will be rectified is anyones guess. At the moment we're in no position to negotiate a decent deal anyway....i mean, we walked away from a bloody good deal, but we are where we are.
I was at Westminster in the summer with the Department of Trade and Industry to explain in very simple terms how the 'oven ready deal' was anything but that. I can tell you hand on heart that the ministers we spent the day with did not care and have absolutely no interest in sorting this mess out - they genuinely do not know where to begin. It was so saddening to see the apathy and languid attitudes we were greeted with. Utterly disappointing.
We will be back inside the Single Market/Customs Union within 10 years.
I certainly hope so. I cannot see us attempting to rejoin as a full member (or being allowed to by EU members). The only route in the next few years is for a Labour government to push for stronger economic ties with free movement as a national necessity, and hopefully the scales will have fallen from enough Brexit-supporting eyes by then. Unfortunately, the only route to this involves enough economic pain on individuals and families to drive home the message that their idea of 'sovrinty' is not worth 4% of GDP year on year, and that the 'Brussels red tape' they wanted to lose was the only thing protecting theim from predatory employers and corporations.
I reckon in about a decade the government will be ready to admit this has been a glaring mistake
The EU won't move until rejoining is the policy of both Tories and Labour. It would be daft otherwise. Once that happens, it'll be on the cards again.
Krishnan GM on channel 4 news (before he was put on the naughty step) asked a shadow front bencher about rejoining and the answer was noncommittal but i see the very fact it is being asked on mainstream news as a positive because it really is a huge elephant in the room.
we know it’s a disaster, we know it’s unworkable and we know it’s damaging trade and business.
even those who sold the concept know this.
It’s just going to take the right person to say ‘hang on shouldn’t we at least reconsider this?’ then once it gains traction politicians will jump on that bandwagon as it’s a no brainer if the majority want it.
I think the conversations will start in a few not 10 years, Scotland, NI and Wales might just save our (English) bacon by standing up for themselves, not that they will think we deserve it.
The best time to start the long journey is by not leaving the destination in the first place. The second best time is now.
Not until most people decide there might be an advantage and it isn't clear cut enough. Trouble was on the day of the election we, well every single person I know was voting for either apples or 10mm spanners. Everyone I knew wanted to leave because of the legal/social/political reason whilst aknowledging the economic possibilities. We couldn't have one without the other so I, like my mates, voted with concience not pocket. I guesss thats the generation that wanted what was voted for originally.
Funnily enough isn't that what those who want a general elction now want?
Hang about. What has Scotland got to do with it? They voted to stay part of the UK. You can't be childish and say, "it didn't go the way I wanted so lets have best of three". Makes a complete mockery of any form of democracy doesn't it?
I think the conversations will start in a few not 10 years, Scotland, NI and Wales might just save our (English) bacon by standing up for themselves, not that they will think we deserve it.
As a Scot I'd rather be in the EU and I'd rather England, Wales and NI were too.
You can’t be childish and say, “it didn’t go the way I wanted so lets have best of three”. Makes a complete mockery of any form of democracy doesn’t it?
Tone is always difficult to convey in a forum like this. I'm trying to decide if you are being deliberately ironic.
I actually think that what will happen is that the EU will evolve over the next 10-15 years into this "concentric circles" model that Macron has been talking about. UK (or what ever is left of it) would be in the outer circle, getting some access to the single market (depending on how much freedom of movement we sign up for) etc but without the strong political ties.
That would be a much easier sell then "we're rejoining the EU". (Although there's a lot of work to be done on the French proposal to make it popular/workable)
All the "they won't let us re-join" stuff seems more than a little ridiculous to me. Of course it's not on the cards now, but how some randomer can seriously think they have any useful insight into what may happen over the next 5 or 10 years seems completely barking to me.
thecaptain
Free MemberAll the “they won’t let us re-join” stuff seems more than a little ridiculous to me. Of course it’s not on the cards now, but how some randomer can seriously think they have any useful insight into what may happen over the next 5 or 10 years seems completely barking to me.
End of the day we were a positive net contributor to the tune of 9bn a year and it would be more without our opt-outs. Of course they would have us back.
I can't see us fully rejoining though, unless there is also reform on the EU side, for example the CAP.
Hang about. What has Scotland got to do with it? They voted to stay part of the UK.
In 2014 when the Unionist campaign was substantially a pack of scaremongering and untruths? Since then the majority of the Scottish electorate have voted for the SNP whose main objective is to run a second independence referendum as the country was dragged out of the EU against their wishes. It may have escaped your notice that we don’t live under a totalitarian regime where whilst government policy can swing in the breeze but the electorate are denied the opportunity to change their minds based on evidence?
Can't see it happening. Independent Scotland has little chance either as the country would be back of a queue I think from listening to the news. Then again Scottish Independence is a fantasy unless you leave sterling and have your own currency otherwise it's like a kid shouting at mum then asking for pocket money. Pro EU and independence by the way just zero faith in politicians and Nichola is just a northern version of Boris.
Independent Scotland has little chance either as the country would be back of a queue
There is no queue. Countries negotiate, rules are set and agreed, accession happens when criteria are met. This doesn't mean that the first to apply is the first to acceed.
If the UK applied to re-join they'd already be well on the way - until all the existing EU laws that still apply here are reversed.
Fascinating how British/English exceptionalism infects so many more than just those on the right.
OK you'd be front of the queue then. Can anyone answer the question on a Scottish currency. It's a genuine question that I've never heard an answer to.
OK you’d be front of the queue then. Can anyone answer the question on a Scottish currency. It’s a genuine question that I’ve never heard an answer to.
It's kind of a non-question to be fair. We already have the Scottish Pound, just now it's tied to Sterling. We could keep the value the same as sterling or have an exchange rate. Alternatively we could opt to adopt the Euro and have the same currency as most of our trading partners.
Um....I'm sure there's a separate thread for Scottish independence....
Um….I’m sure there’s a separate thread for Scottish independence….
Yeah, there is. I only mentioned it in here as a potential "encouragement" for the people of England, Wales and NI.
As a Scot I’d rather be in the EU and I’d rather England, Wales and NI were too.
My thinking was that another Scottish referendum and then a consultation period for rejoining could mean the compromise being offered by Westminster of ‘please stay part of the union and we will join the single market’
The unresolved border issue in NI puts further calls for frictionless trade with our nearest neighbours.
It makes so much sense to join the single market for the whole of GB.
While there is a separate thread Scotland and it’s pursuit of independence/E.U. membership will have big influence on GB’s entry to the single market.
As for the UK rejoining, it’s going to be a 10year wait at least,
Where are you getting that timescale from ?.
My thinking was that another Scottish referendum and then a consultation period for rejoining could mean the compromise being offered by Westminster of ‘please stay part of the union and we will join the single market’
Yeah, I guess that's also a possibility too.
The eu beaurocrats may have said that but national leaders
As we’ve seen in the past few years (weeks??), National leaders come and go…
Economically, the EU is stronger with the UK and the UK is stronger in the EU. Given that most European politicians come across as fairly considered people, why they would turn away from a position of mutually greater economic strength is beyond me. Of course the UK would be welcomed back, but it would be in a weaker political position than before, plus we would have to adopt the euro as our currency. The symbolism of this cannot be understated for many Brits; I believe this would be more of a major stumbling block than any imagined spite of a European leader.
Single market in a decade due to economic problems, then rejoin 20 years after that when people finally realise it's better to be part of the rule making process.
In theory the UK would have to commit to adopting the Euro at some undetermined point in the future. Assuming this requirement wasn't negotiated away, there are a number of non-compulsory steps required before the Euro could be adopted. The UK could simply choose not to follow those steps.
We could promise to adopt the Euro the year after Sweden does?
Hang about. What has Scotland got to do with it? They voted to stay part of the UK. You can’t be childish and say, “it didn’t go the way I wanted so lets have best of three”. Makes a complete mockery of any form of democracy doesn’t it?
Because in the closing days of campaigning a "vow" was made to the people of Scotland from the No campaign including the point that staying in the union would guarantee us staying in the EU.
My thinking was that another Scottish referendum and then a consultation period for rejoining could mean the compromise being offered by Westminster of ‘please stay part of the union and we will join the single market’
Even if it was sincere nobody would take it seriously for the above reason. Fool me once...
Because in the closing days of campaigning a “vow” was made to the people of Scotland from the No campaign including the point that staying in the union would guarantee us staying in the EU.
This. I, and I imagine many others, see this as the template for how Westminster treat the people of Scotland. They'll happily lie to us to get what they want.
Yeah, but there's another thread for that. How do you see UK/rUK rejoining the EU?
I, and I imagine many others, see this as the template for how politicians
Westminstertreat the peopleof Scotland. They’ll happily lie to us to get what they want.
Yeah, but there’s another thread for that. How do you see UK/rUK rejoining the EU?
Honestly, I don't - not in the UK's current form anyway. It would be political suicide for either of the major parties to try, so they won't. I can't see that changing for a generation or two.
I think if Scotland gets independence, attempting to apply to re-join the EU would be a very easy sell to the people of Scotland, because most of us voted remain. It'll be much harder to convince the people of England, because the majority voted leave.