in both the Party and the Trade Unions
The last big vote suggested the first is true, for sure.
Not sure where Sunak comes into it.
It certainly won’t signal decades of Labour rule!
Yes, you're right in that it won't breed the sort of complacency that decades in power breeds. But that sort of majority would take at least two elections to overcome, probably three. That in itself will take away much of the urgency and motivation from Starmer's govt to change anything.
I suppose we don't have to look any further than the last time labour had an unassailable majority. The Blair government was up to it's ears in cronyism and barely disguised corporate taodying and I see little sign that Starmer's govt will be much different.
In the unlikely scenario that the SNP is the official opposition though, I think that the case for electoral reform would be unavoidable. The UK political system is based on having a functioning and powerful opposition, and the idea that a party which doesn't want to be in the UK could be the official opposition is clearly daft.
But that sort of majority would take at least two elections to overcome
I very much agree, I think it is highly probable that we will have at least 10 years of Labour governments. However I quite honestly don't expect Starmer to last very long as leader at all. He has shown himself to be a hopelessly ineffective leader, he is weak and has no charisma.
The only reason Labour are likely to win a landslide victory is because the Tories have spent over a year now on this apparent mission to commit political suicide. I can't see Starmer realistically lasting a full term as PM when all the focus will be on him rather than the Tories.
Not sure where Sunak comes into it.
On the question of the Labour Party leadership and its commitment to PR he doesn't come into it at all.
Starmer has no charisma at all, but he has out played the Tories, again and again. He could see off two more Tory leaders... and still he'd get no credit for it from many... some people just want him to fail, and can't accept that he could well be succeeding where so many of us (myself included) thought he could not. A full on election campaign with the press getting behind the Tories could still get the better of him... but where as that was once something that seemed almost inevitable (to me at least), it now looks increasingly unlikely as the months roll on.
Anyway... this Sunak fellow... plenty to discuss about his problems right now... can we file the Starmer stuff away in the Starmer thread out of the way...?
One of the yougov daily questions this week was whether sunak should resign. I know he's had a bad week but compared to what our last few leaders have had to do before they were forced to resign I was quite surprised!
I know he’s had a bad week but compared to what our last few leaders have had to do before they were forced to resign I was quite surprised!
He has that "loss" when he ran for the leadership against Truss counting against him in addition to all that has happened in and around government. That puts in him on the back foot... he's a stand in... a backup... a second choice... a caretaker... all that makes it easier for people to see him as temporary PM who has to either move on or gain his own mandate... people are mostly thinking "when" not "if"... and that "when" can become "now" very quickly.
all that makes it easier for people to see him as temporary PM who has to either move on or gain his own mandate…
Everyone knows he won't be gaining his own mandate. His only job is to steady the ship enough from the chaos of the Truss govt to save a hundred or so tory seats when they get kicked out. Then he'll be off to sunny California with Chancellor and Prime Minister on his CV to carve out a lucrative career as a consultant to US tech and finance firms. I seriously doubt he'll even fight the next election, and could possibly stand aside if he can prevent Johnson being the person to replace him.
Anyway… this Sunak fellow… plenty to discuss about his problems right now… can we file the Starmer stuff away in the Starmer thread out of the way…?
Why, because you have said your bit and made your point the issue is now closed? If you don't want Starmer to be discussed on this thread your best strategy would be not to talk about him 💡
He could see off two more Tory leaders… and still he’d get no credit for it from many…
That is obviously complete nonsense - why would he get no credit if he was up to the job of taking on the Tories? He would get a massive amount of respect. Angela Rayner gets plenty of credit when she provides a real challenge to the Tories, why, FFS, would it be any different with Starmer?
The problem is that you want to give him credit for things which he has no reason to take credit for.
You say "he could see off two more Tory leaders" as if he is somehow responsible for their downfall! Starmer had nothing to do with either Johnson's or Truss's resignations!
It is a measure of how little he has achieved that you need to make up stuff to give him credit for.
Edit: Where's binners with his road signs? He's slacking.
Had to make sure I’d read that correctly. Ugh!
Ageist!
Just better make sure the wife isn't around first...
Starmer had nothing to do with either Johnson’s or Truss’s resignations!
Absolutely he did. His slow take down of Johnson was a master class is making him own his lies. The promise to stand down as leader if he got fined for breaking social distancing rules the most obvious tactical win. For Truss, he timed Labour’s announcements on energy bills, and the future energy mix, perfectly to take the wind out of her sails as regards helping people with their bills, and highlight her close association and help for the fossil fuel industry. Now watch Sunak squirm at PMQs weekly as his cabinet is peeled away from him… not a match for boring old careful calculating charisma free Starmer. The occasional “union paymasters” and “but Corbyn” quip thrown across the dispatch box is all he can manage… is that it Sunak?!?
This will build and build.
I don’t get why Sunak lets Zahawi hang on? Even if he wants to use the “independent” advisor ruse to punt it down the road in the hope people move on, surely not at least suspending Zahawi while everything dribbles out can in only harm his position as leader? Pushing him to one side and painting him as a legacy of Johnson‘s struggling time at the end of his time as PM seems the obvious move.
What’s telling was an interview with a pollster on five live yesterday
He said that of the people polled, across all political persuasions, the verdict on Zahawi’s tax affairs was unanimous. Everyone thinks it stinks to high heaven.
And Sunaks apparent ambivalence about it (hardly a subject he’s unfamiliar with) is pretty symbolic of his attitude to what rules apply to whom
Trust in his judgement is shot already. Safe pair of hands… that phrase forgotten, by the public at least. Tory MPs well behind the public so far.
Uncle Jim being direct as usual - sorry former Chancellor.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64410490
Our friend was saying last night that they were fined £5000 10 years ago for mistakenly claiming relief on an item 10 years ago.
Even though they paid the difference and interest as soon as the mistake was pointed out to them.
He’s been fined for tax dodging through offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands
While he was chancellor of the exchequer
That’s just how it is and everyone knows it
The UK political system is based on having a functioning and powerful opposition
"based on" maybe, but have you been asleep for the last 6 years as it's not functioning - and TBH anything that depends on 'good people' is bound to fail when it's really needed and/or crims & chancers are involved.
Under FPTP all you need is a majority and then it's irrelevant what the Opposition do/say as the only people who can stop you doing what you want are your own MP's - which is why we're in this mess, as it's the outliers & lunatics who are making the 'calls'.
And don't forget the impact of whatever Party is in Govt's leadership process has on the ability to remove/change a PM.
Our friend was saying last night that they were fined £5000 10 years ago for mistakenly claiming relief on an item 10 years ago.
Even though they paid the difference and interest as soon as the mistake was pointed out to them.
Was it via an Accountant though rather than Self-Assessment/PAYE?
Jeremy Hunt is giving his big speech this morning on the UK's industrial strategy. Apparently it is entirely dependent on 'exploiting the opportunities offered by Brexit freedoms'
So this country will be officially basing the essential policy for the economic growth that we need on a fairy tale.
https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1618890546545565696?s=20&t=8LvT4-f8m2MrNwwNTx1UiQ
The only other thing that the Tory party EG nutjobs are calling for is a repeat of the Truss experiment in another round of unfunded tax cuts. Its obvious really, seeing as it went so well last time round
Brilliant!
You really couldn't make it up 🙄
“based on” maybe, but have you been asleep for the last 6 years as it’s not functioning
Very odd comment. I seem to remember the tory govt losing loads of votes and pulling loads of other stuff because the opposition would have voted it down. My point was also a practical one. How does parliament work with 550 MPs on one side and 100 on the other? Each minister has a paid shadow to ask questions and hold them to account. How's that going to work with only a few MPs on the other side fragmented across different parties?
Each minister has a paid shadow to ask questions and hold them to account.
Point of Information: Shadow Ministers do not receive any extra salary beyond what they receive as Members of Parliament. The only person to receive an enhanced salary outside government is the Leader of the Opposition.
How’s that going to work with only a few MPs on the other side fragmented across different parties?
Why should the opposition always be made up of MPs from one party?
The only other thing that the Tory party EG nutjobs are calling for is a repeat of the Truss experiment in another round of unfunded tax cuts.
They'll be tax cuts just before an election if Sunak & Hunt are still at the helm. Spring next year. The pushing to do it sooner is just media chatter, isn't it? The usual... talk about tax cuts as if it really matters when our public services are falling apart. And, when it comes, it'll be reduction in a headline figure, using freezing/lagging thresholds and inflation to make sure we're actually all paying more (ie it won't be "unfunded" it'll be an illusion).
A lot of Tory MPs looking at the state theyve left the country in, checking the polls.....
And lining up their next careers; whether thats antivax grift or Alex Jones style outrage farming on the Tabloid TV channels (moggs getting a show on GB news)
https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1618901364280823810
Was it via an Accountant though rather than Self-Assessment/PAYE?
I'm not sure of the exact details. My friend owns an engineering company and his wife did the accounts.
I think they bought a machine and it get entered twice. They had a visit from the lady from HMRC. When she pointed it out he got his cheque book out immediately.
Very odd comment. I seem to remember the tory govt losing loads of votes and pulling loads of other stuff because the opposition would have voted it down.
Back to my point, they'd a MAJORITY therefore they didn't need Opposition votes, except when they can't rely on their own MP's...
Its worth listening to Hunts speech.
Absolutely detached from reality. He's completely and utterly delusional
Blah...blah, blah... technology... blah...blah, blah... tax cuts.... blah...blah, blah... 'smarter' regulation ...blah...blah, blah... spending restraint... blah...blah, blah... 'Brexit Opportunities ... blah...blah, blah... more awful management speak and buzzwords
So... continued austerity to fund pre-election tax cuts and fingers crossed we somehow magically become the next 'silicon valley'
Utter and complete bollocks, the lot of it
Shadow Ministers do not receive any extra salary beyond
Didn't know that. I thought at the very least the shadow cabinet got extra cash for the hassle of having to attend parliament to ask ministers questions. Anyway, the point still stands, who is going to do that if there are only 100 MPs spread across different parties on the opposition benches? I doubt we will see the SNP in an opposition coalition with the tories.
Oh God, Hunt is doing the whole "Silicone Valley" shite. Has he said "world beating" yet?
“Silicone Valley”
Is that the cleavage between two over inflated boobs?
Oh God, Hunt is doing the whole “Silicone Valley” shite.
They really have gone full Thick of It. A while back I heard Sunak thanking nurses for 'the important work that they do' probably completely unaware that this was Peter Mannion's patronising catchphrase whenever he had to deal with the public.
They really have gone full Thick of It.
Whats really funny is that the cabinet are on an away day at Chequers, and all I can think of is this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDj7Ysa5HGk
Jeremy Hunt is Stewart Pearson, isn't he?
Good to see that HS2 will now be downgraded to a £100 Billion commuter line from Birmingham to Ealing and is presently only two and a half years behind schedule.
Are we betting on the final cost? I'll go for half a trillion quid when it finally opens in 2043
I'll put money on it still going to Euston... they're just putting the political squeeze on the government to stop them cutting the budget... it's never getting to the North though, is it.
There's no way it won't go to Euston they've dug a massive **** hole! And a huge amount of work driving in piles and stuff
it’s never getting to the North though, is it.
Define "the North"...
Define “the North”…
Watford?
Hunt said this morning: 'I can't see any foreseeable circumstance in which HS2 won't go to Euston'
Given this countries track record on foreseeable circumstances over the last ten years, I'd say its all thats left to make it the complete white elephant it has so clearly always been, so pretty much a nailed on certainty
I see operation 'save nadhim' is going down well
https://twitter.com/AndyinBrum/status/1618364600738811905?t=8D5W4ya_2ley55R0TUqrUg&s=19
So who is it that has calculated that if there was a general election tomorrow Labour would have a more than 400 seat majority, and the Tories would be down to just 23 seats making them the fourth largest party behind the LibDems?
And more I importantly what is the point of these fantasy figures? To discredit pollsters?
I reckon generally speaking the pollsters have probably got it fairly right, they are simply too many polls consistently showing broadly the same result.
When asked how would they vote if there was a general election tomorrow I feel confident that Tory support is probably in the mid to high twenties and Labour support is probably in the mid to high forties.
Although if there was an actual election tomorrow I am also confident that some people who are currently not prepared to commit themselves would in the event vote Tory. Which is why I think the actual Labour lead would likely be around the 15% mark.
I don't understand the point of talking about the Tories being down to 23 seats when that is so obviously not going to happen.
Edit:
I see operation ‘save nadhim ’ is going down well
The PeoplePolling poll which have posted shows absolutely no change in Tory support from the the same poll a week ago. So according to that poll the Nadhim Zahawi story has had no effect on Tory support.
So who is it that has calculated that if there was a general election tomorrow Labour would have a more than 400 seat majority, and the Tories would be down to just 23 seats making them the fourth largest party behind the LibDems?
That's using the Britain predicts mrp model on the people polling data, modified version of electoral calculus, which was the most accurate at predicting 2019 GE & last 2 sets of locals
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britainpredicts
The PeoplePolling poll which have posted shows absolutely no change in Tory support
That's because the dks are shifting to Labour, which like rod Stewart is showing that based on recent events, people want the tories out
Edit
It's even worse for the tories using people polling numbers on electoral calculus
Bonkers figures, but don't forget how much fptp can really skew results
I don’t understand the point of talking about the Tories being down to 23 seats when that is so obviously not going to happen.
Once you get to high 40% with opponents down to 20 odd % then you get wipeout in first past the post elections - hence the SNP getting almost all the scottish seats
So according to that poll the Nadhim Zahawi story has had no effect on Tory support.
I think that now, the tories are unlikely to see any further significant worsening of their polling figures but every new scandal also strengthens the anti tory feelings and makes any swing back to them also less likely.
yup. 20 odd % is the hard core tory voters who will never change their vote
It wasn't that long ago that the thought of labour winning the next election seemed absolutely outlandish to me. An impossible dream.
However, unless they badly shoot themselves in the foot, Labour are almost certain to form the next government.
Trouble is... I'm still feeling very downbeat about quantifiable, positive change happening in the UK this decade really. With the best will in the world and even if luck is on their side, Labour are facing an absolute sh*t storm. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they only win one term then get burnt by the absolute mess the country is in and a Tory government are back in again straight after.
Even if Labour win the next 2 elections, their work will really have hardly just begun to turn things around.
What a bloody mess.
I would put money on 'my' tory MP sill getting 50%+ vote come the election. He managed to get 50% in 1997 and has increased since then. I am surrounded by tory ****ers.
