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looks like the tories have thrown in the towel!
The Conservative Party says it "fought robust campaigns on the ground" in both Kingswood and Wellingborough with their local candidates but adds that "these by-elections were always going to be hard".
"The Government of the day rarely win by-elections," the Tories said in a statement released at the close of polls.
They must know what’s coming then? They must have seen the exit polls
That’ll be an 18,000 and an 11,000 majority they’ve lost then
It’ll be fun watching whichever sacrificial idiot gets sent out tomorrow morning to try and spin this
My money is on Grant Schapps. He’s the usual mug called on to defend the indefensible. Laura Trott is another candidate but is so unbelievably dense, I doubt she’ll be getting another crack at it
Some Daily Telegraph Tory Party mouthpiece is on QT right now saying that Rishi basically repeat Liz Trusses tax cutting budget as that went so well last time
Would anyone bet against that idiot doing it next month?
The Tories seem to want us to believe that it was their plan all along to have the UK economy in recession in the run-up to a general election.
I guess it has the advantage that your opponents arent going to have thought to plan for you doing it deliberately.
Same on Newsnight… forgettable MP/minister telling us that tax cuts and spending cuts will give us growth.
I suppose if everyone knows that those spending cuts will never come, because they’re scheduled to happen after the Tories have handed over the shit covered baton to others, then they might not have a negative effect? 🤷🏻♂️
wouldn't they need to pull the same trick as last time i.e. not asking the OBR to run the numbers. that ended well.
No I don’t think that his coalition government was a moderated Tory government.
The Tories got worse after the coalition, though that doesn’t mean the coalition was noticeably moderated
not asking the OBR to run the numbers
The OBR wouldn’t be able to run the numbers on the spending cuts, because they wouldn’t have to be detailed in an election “give away” budget… that would be in a spending review that could be timed to be post election…
of course they could, the cost of the give away would have to be made up from either borrowing, cuts or better tax receipts.. they model this shit endlessly it's their job to forecast.
My money is on Grant Schapps. He’s the usual mug called on to defend the indefensible.
He's been promoted, so the worst duties now fall to Chris Philp, Richard Holden and Mel Stride.
If the Tories feel very confident that they will lose the next general election, and I can't think of any reason why they might not, it would certainly make sense for them to announce tax cuts in a March budget and call for a general election for May 2sd.
Not only would it likely create inflationary pressures for an incoming Labour government but it would also apply pressure on Starmer to introduce austerity/public spending measures, which in turn would likely turn a "mild" recession into a more severe one.
I really struggle to see Starmer reversing Tory tax cuts.
I can imagine that senior Tories are currently already planning what they will do when they win the 2029 general election.
They’re salting the earth. This budget will be worse than Mad Lizzies. I think you’re underestimating the meltdown in the Tory party following a massive electoral loss.
Just look at them now. They all absolutely despise each other. Throw in an electoral drubbing and it’s open season. Like rats in a sack!
Despite becoming UKIP, they can’t take any voters away from Reform.
An electoral loss will see the few remaining moderates left and a March towards trump style nationalist populism under a fruitloop like Badenoch or Braverman
think you’re underestimating the meltdown in the Tory party following a massive electoral loss.
Just look at them now. They all absolutely despise each other. Throw in an electoral drubbing and it’s open season. Like rats in a sack!
I am not under any illusions with the regards to the crisis facing the Tory Party, and I totally agree with you that the very deep divisions will, especially in the event of a massive defeat, have them at each others throats after the next general election.
I was offering a possible scenario into the current Tory mindset. Tax cuts now would leave a lot of baggage for Starmer to deal with, and don't underestimate what Starmer will inherit (unlike Tony Blair in 1997 when he inherited a growing economy)
The Tories best hope is that Prime Minister Starmer will badly screw up, which imo is not an unrealistic expectation - especially if Starmer is hamstrung by the Tories's economic narrative.
But the Tories ability to recover from a 2024 electoral drubbing will also depend on how big that drubbing is, as it will among other things reflect their credibility in the eyes of the electorate. A 50 seat Labour majority would not represent a particularly serious challenge for them imo. A 250 seat Labour majority would cause them such a serious crisis that imo I could see them splitting into two parties, one gravitating around Nigel Farage.
Time for Labour to adopt MMT?
In other news, L win Kingswood; Reform vote was greater than the winning margin.
The swing, if repeated in Wellingborough, will not be enough.
No room for complacency.
But the Tories ability to recover from a 2024 electoral drubbing will also depend on how big that drubbing is, as it will among other things reflect their credibility in the eyes of the electorate. A 50 seat Labour majority would not represent a particularly serious challenge for them imo. A 250 seat Labour majority would cause them such a serious crisis that imo I could see them splitting into two parties, one gravitating around Nigel Farage.
I see drastic swings becoming the norm.
With both parties reading from the same hymn sheet things are not going to get any better for people. Any expected improvements under a Labour government are not going to materialise so people will gravitate to the Badenoch/Braverman led Tory party promising to solve the country's problems by reintroducing workhouses and bringing back hanging.
Which will then also fail and so we get whatever flavour of Tory-lite the Labour party has become at the following election.
Rinse and repeat.
Wellingborough taken as well. Rees-Mogg blames low turnout, by elections don't mean anything, Sunak is a solid leader.
Time for Labour to adopt MMT?
We are already doing MMT. But politicans and economists add a mythical layer of restriction to it.
MMT describes the current system. The fact that idiotic MPs use terms like max out-the-credit-card - is the issue. Fiscal rules being another absurd fantasy. That's an MP simply imposing a fabricated constraint.
If you want to look at a country that has got it roughly correct then look at the USA. It's goverment stimulus/spend has created big growth. If half of these UK economists went where the evidence was then we could solve a lot of problems.
Our leaders can keep looking at a declining economy for a long time until MPs take a long hard look at the mechanics of our spending system.
But the Tories ability to recover from a 2024 electoral drubbing will also depend on how big that drubbing is, as it will among other things reflect their credibility in the eyes of the electorate. A 50 seat Labour majority would not represent a particularly serious challenge for them imo. A 250 seat Labour majority would cause them such a serious crisis that imo I could see them splitting into two parties, one gravitating around Nigel Farage.
There's been a significant swing towards Reform in both seats. Lib Dems have been reduced to a very distant 4th. That big increase of votes to Reform has got to have the Tories going "hmm, so if we were a bit more like Farage...."
That big increase of votes to Reform has got to have the Tories going “hmm, so if we were a bit more like Farage…."
You're not wrong.
From the BBC after last night:
Mr Rees-Mogg said the Tories needed to focus on appealing to voters who had turned to Reform, adding that there was "a lot of common ground" between the two parties.
That big increase of votes to Reform has got to have the Tories going “hmm, so if we were a bit more like Farage…
according to yougov, who've looked into this, only about 1/3td of the reform vote is taken from the Tories
& back when UKIP were a thing they got 20% in Wellingborough against Bone who's one of the most brexity MPs ever. Theres a good reason Reform put up their deputy leader there and however they spin it, they'll have been hoping for better numbers.
on sky last night one of the tory pundits suggested anything under 15% was a bad result for them as they canvassed Wellingborough really hard and the previous UKIP vote share.
canvassed Wellingborough really hard
Not only there but across the constituency line in Corby too! 😀
they were out and about in Irthlingborough (Corby) too according to Sky 😕
I can see the Tories wanting to do a deal with Reform and/or parachute Farage into a seat.
Not sure I read too much into the results, given turnout was so low, shy Tories won't have bothered. But interesting if it pushes the Tories further to the right as a reaction, exposing how desperate they have become.
I can see the Tories wanting to do a deal with Reform and/or parachute Farage into a seat.
I'm not sure Farage would join the Tories, even with the promise of a supposedly safe seat. Reform is his little baby, he can grift away quite happily on that for years, he doesn't need to win. Plus he's tried to win elections before and never come anywhere close, he lost to a man dressed as a dolphin!
A win for Farage is not him being an MP - it's him failing to win a seat and then sniping away from the sidelines and rinsing donors for cash. He's just a useful idiot for the likes of Trump folk in America and Putin folk in Russia. Much the same way that Leave was never supposed to win, it was supposed to be a way of sowing a bit of discontent and then not having to do anything. Farage would be utterly lost if he actually had to do anything.
And the only deal to do with Reform would be to ask their candidates not to stand in seats the Tories still think they can cling onto. But at the moment, Reform must be looking at the sinking ship SS Tory and hoping to add a few more holes to it themselves.
I am sure ( as sure as you can be in politics) there will be a reform / tory deal to stand down in tory seats. Reform is not a political party, its a pressure group and getting a couple of key aims in the tory manifesto and preve4nting a labour majority would be big wins for them. the last thing reform want is a strong labour government
The lower turnout and swing in Kingswood may be influenced by boundary changes: the constituency disappears at the next election.
Reform vote was greater than the winning margin.
Always going to be extreme voters at every election.
Always going to be extreme voters at every election.
Would PR encourage them or expose them - probably best on another thread though.
But interesting if it pushes the Tories further to the right as a reaction, exposing how desperate they have become.
Probably because of the loons in charge.
The question though is how many of those tories who stayed home did so because of the tories trying and failing to appeal to Farage ltd.
With the follow up does chasing them mean some of those voting tory yesterday stay home at the AE.
Reform vote was greater than the winning margin.
Sunak has appeared for a bit of damage limitation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68277176
challenging circumstances, work to do, delivering for the people.
blah ****ing blah
Not sure I read too much into the results, given turnout was so low, shy Tories won’t have bothered.
Well the low turnout is an extremely important aspect of the by-election results imo.
So far the Tories have lost 10 by-elections in the current parliament, a new postwar record. Yesterday's low by-election turnouts were apparently in line with other by-election turnouts in this parliament.
When combined with the high level of "don't knows" in opinion polls in recent times it is clear that one of the greatest electoral issues facing the Tories is their voters staying at home.
Which should emphasis to them the importance of holding the general election on a warm spring day, with possibly a sunny evening, on the same day that their supporters will be going to the polling stations to vote for their local councillors, rather than on a cold dark windy autumn day.
Yesterday's by-elections provides more evidence that Tory voters can't be arsed. Given how unpopular the current Tory government is I doubt that the same amount of Labour voters stayed at home. When combined with the votes the Tories are hemorrhaging to Reform UK the stay-at-home Tories could give Labour a mind-boggling majority on election day.
the last thing reform want is a strong labour government
Why, what negative effect would it have on them? A weak Labour government will hugely help the Tories. Reform UK need a weak and discredited Tory Party to thrive and grow.
The only reason the Brexit Party helped the Tories win in 2019 was because like a lot of people they weren't convinced that under Corbyn the UK would leave the EU. Especially as Keir Starmer was Shadow Brexit Minister and Labour were committed to a second referendum.
The other obvious difference with 2019 for Nigel Farage is that in 2019 Labour was offering something significant different to the status quo.
That polling does not show what would happen if the tories pick on on key Reform demands / policies
No but this article does:
It will simply benefit Reform UK, not the Tories.
I'll assume it's interesting reading Ernie but you need to log-in to read it - can you summarise?
I thought about this recently, as much as I'd like to see the Tories wiped out in the election, the prospect of the ReformTroopers having lots of seats is scary too. Then I realised that we've just had Reform Lite in power for the last 6-7 years. As each year has gone by, the Lite bit has reduced significantly. Are Reform now more centrist than the Tories?
Why, what negative effect would it have on them? A weak Labour government will hugely help the Tories. Reform UK need a weak and discredited Tory Party to thrive and grow.
Because reform is a pressure group to shift the tories to the right. Its not a political party. Would they rather have a centrist labour government or a hard right tory one?
This is why I bet they make a deal with the tories. again they are not a political party - they are a well funded anti immigration anti EU pressure group. Their aim is not to win seats - its to push the tories further right and to remove worker protection with draw from the ECHR etc
Would they rather have a centrist labour government or a hard right tory one?
Its a long term project so if they get labour to chase the tory vote rightwards then its a success. A new baseline will be set and their previous nutty ideas will become merely slightly right wing.
Yes indeed - which is why I think they will stand down in tory seats
Would they rather have a centrist labour government or a hard right tory one?
I know that you are pushing the line that Reform UK are not a political party but the reality is that they don't want to help the Conservative Party, they want to replace it.