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I wont lie, I'm pretty happy this morning.
Unlike Sunak.
It will simply benefit Reform UK, not the Tories.
One of the funniest aspects of this is that various Tory MPs are actively driving votes to Reform by constantly hosting/appearing on GB News and focusing exclusively on Reform talking points. They're moving sentiment away from their party, not towards it.
Which is why the PM was rather shocked to get ambushed by anti-vax loons etc when he went on the other day. But you reap what you sow.
I’ll assume it’s interesting reading Ernie but you need to log-in to read it – can you summarise?
I don't understand why, it's a free article.
And yes it is very interesting but also rather long. It's necessary to read all of it to get a good understanding. But here's some:
There is little evidence in most Western countries that people, on average, are becoming more racist, xenophobic or Islamophobic over time. So what is happening?
What seems to be driving these parties’ support is the increased salience of nationalist beliefs among voters who identify their nation with the ethnic or racial identity of the majority group. Many people who have long been hostile to immigrants and minorities had not been voting based on these sentiments. They had other political priorities that mattered more to them in past elections. Over time, however, voters in many countries have begun to rank immigration, one of the main policy areas associated with exclusionary nationalism, as “more important” on public opinion surveys than other traditional areas of concern. Elsewhere, as in the United Kingdom before the Brexit referendum, immigration has also become linked to increasingly salient concerns about national sovereignty. In short, voters appear to be increasingly motivated by what they perceive as affronts to their national identities.
For many years, traditional center-right parties have relied on xenophobic language to mobilize voters at election time both in Europe and the United States by reminding voters of the apparent threats posed to the nation by immigrants and minorities.
Yet center-right political parties throughout Europe often did not match their nationalist rhetoric with actual policy, creating opportunities for the radical right. As voters have become more worried about immigration, they have become frustrated with the apparent inaction of mainstream parties and have drifted toward radical-right actors who were more intensely ethnonationalist.
In short, "center-right" parties have instead of pulling the rug from under the far-right parties actually helped them by adopting their narratives but yet not delivering whilst in government.
They have simply created fertile ground for the far-right to thrive.
It's not just "centre-right" parties either... adopting some ethno-nationalist language... or playing up the importance of migration as an issue... to only then benefit the right at the polls has been happening with centre-left and left wing parties and organisations across the west as well. Closest to home... Labours "controls on immigration" mug farrago in 2015, and some unions supporting Brexit has helped motivate the anti-immigrant vote. Remember, a good chunk of the voting support for whatever the Tice/Farage vehicle is at the time has always been people who have moved to them from Labour and absolutely do not consider themselves right wing... they just have immigration as an issue blown up beyond all proportion in their minds, and as a reason to vote, and as a decider as regards how to vote. It's not just politicians on "the right" that have got them to that point.
I am sure ( as sure as you can be in politics) there will be a reform / tory deal to stand down in tory seats.
Its just not going to happen. Thankfully. Not this time around.
Reform/Brexit/The Farage Party were done up like kippers by Boris last time out. They're now angry as hell, bitter and resentful and fuelled by a vicious and vindictive 'betrayal' narrative. They are gleefully relishing inflicting these losses on the Tory party, who they seem to regard as Jeremy Corbyn in disguise.
As has been pointed out: you reap what you sow. All the nasty, divisive, nationalist populism that Boris and chums unleashed with Brexit has now morphed, is now completely out of their control and is back to bite them on the arse, big time, and it is a joy to see. Hoisted by their own petard!
^^ Erm, let's not get too carried away, it's Labour that won two very safe Tory seats, not Reform UK!
Its just not going to happen. Thankfully. Not this time around.
But what do the backers want?
They certainly do not want a strong labour government at all.
Reform won't win any seats, but they're going to inflict massive losses on the Tories by splitting the gammon vote.
They're an absolute gift to the labour party.
But what do the backers want?
They're going to get exactly what they want. A hollowed out Tory party who will conclude that they lost an election because they weren't right wing enough. They'll then elect some absolute loon - either Braverman or Badanoch - and march off to the outer hinterlands of the far right, previously the exclusive domain of Tommy Robinson and co, thus rendering themselves completely unelectable
Great tweet by HIGNFY
"A possible 'conflict of interest' has been mooted after Jacob Rees Mogg attended the Kingswood count as a GB News presenter, but then gave an interview to the BBC as an MP. Not that big a deal; next time he attends a count will be as an ex-MP"
The backers are possibly playing the longer game. The more crushing the defeat for the Conservatives, the easier it will be to effectively take over the party and reshape it into what they want. Whether Tice and Farage have the patience for that, remains to be seen.
You're absolutely right. They want to complete what they started in 2016... the complete annexation of the Tory party by far right headbangers.
Every sane member of the Tory party, the few left after Johnsons purges, is standing down at the upcoming election. All that will remain will be the Braverman/Bill Cash/Mark Francois gaggle of right-wing, anti-everything ****-nuggets
The thing that strikes me about the remains of the Tory party is the pure mediocrity of all the main players. None of the contenders have anything that marks them out for leadership, and yet something or someone has convinced the Sunaks, Trusses, Badenochs, Bravermans and Jenricks that they are fit candidates for prime minister. It's a remarkable testament to the power of self-delusion and the Westminster echo chamber of think tanks, client media and corporate shills.
All I can see are weak, small people who would be easily chewed up and dominated by outside interests.
One of the funniest aspects of this is that various Tory MPs are actively driving votes to Reform by constantly hosting/appearing on GB News and focusing exclusively on Reform talking points. They’re moving sentiment away from their party, not towards it.
Quite amusingly, the haunted Victorian pencil turned up at Kingswood to present on it from a GBNews perspective. But then he magically became an MP when he gave an interview to the BBC.
I wonder if they can actually see that by running GBNews as a front for Tory MPs to go on there and interview each other, blow smoke up each other's arses and talk about how great things would be if only the woke lefties would leave them to it that they've basically become a publicity channel for Reform and its policies?!
Edit: I see @winston picked up the point about JRM and his GBNews/MP flipping a couple of posts up.
All I can see are weak, small people who would be easily chewed up and dominated by outside interests.
They're just sock-puppets for the Tufton Street mob and whoever it is that finances them. The tragedy of it is that they're too dense to even realise it
Time to wheel this explanation out again:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
From the front page of the Guardian, from Sunak after losing two safe tory seats
Sunak: we can afford to cut taxes during a recession
Rishi Sunak has insisted that his government can afford to cut taxes, despite the country having entered a recession, because “economic conditions have improved”.
I mean, how on earth can you expect to take you seriously when you're making statements like that. Nobody needed telling we were in recession because we can all feel it. Just as we all know that public services are falling apart after over a decade of austerity
So the very idea of tax cuts is just utterly ludicrous. we need these idiots out before they get to repeat Truss's incredibly successful economic experiment. They're actually stupid enough to do it. Hunt seems to be presently existing in some kind of alternative universe
I've alsways been an admirer of Yanis Varoufakis. He always seems to make sense (to me) of complex economic arguments. I've never understood why Labour haven't signed him up as an advisor. He rips through Tory ideology like a knife through butter.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/15/labour-credit-card-analogy-mendacious-tory
@binners They are all a bunch of c*.
Willing to burn it all down for their own benefit. F them all. I hope they descend into into utter chaos after the election.
My brother in law currently waiting for an ambulance, he has asbestosis. Predicted 6 hour wait.
Tory c****.
Reform/Brexit/The Farage Party were done up like kippers by Boris last time out.
Eh?
Johnson and co gave Farage ltd exactly what they wanted.
That it failed is due to the stupidity of what they were asking for nothing else.
Lets not propagate their lies about them being stabbed in the back.
When combined with the votes the Tories are hemorrhaging to Reform UK the stay-at-home Tories could give Labour a mind-boggling majority on election day.
Or the Tories manage a deal with Reform (seems unlikely), the shy Tories feel obliged to come out and vote on a warm spring day/evening, and the wavering Tories see nothing positive coming from Labour so stick with the devil they know. And the Tories sneak back in via a coalition or minority government.
Most of us on here didn't believe the electorate would go for Brexit, yet here we are.
Anyway, took my parents out this morning. Various reasons were spouted for continuing to vote Tory (despite them not being a proper Conservative party any more) including "Look what Momentum did to Labour", the note about there being "No Money Left", they are looking after the pensioners at the moment and they haven't got much longer to care about what that does to the rest of us and something something "too busy teaching kids in school they can be a cat if they identify as a cat".
I'd have nothing to do with them apart from the fact that they are close to being finished off by the Tories failure to fund the NHS and care services and I'm the only beneficiary.....
Eh?
Johnson and co gave Farage ltd exactly what they wanted.
No he didn't, because what he promised them was impossible to deliver. They wanted Empire 2.0 and nothing less, because they live in a fantasy world. Johnson promised them that just like he promised the DUP no borders. None of these things survive first contact with reality, but when did that ever stop him. Its served its purpose by the time the reality intrusion arrived. He was in number ten and thats all that ever mattered.
David Cameron wasn't right about much, but he was absolutely on the money when he referred to them as 'people who won't take yes for an answer'
Now they're angry and bitter because Britannia doesn't rule the waves (unless you count two broken aircraft carriers) and the East India Company hasn't replaced Amazon
No he didn’t, because what he promised them was impossible to deliver.
He delivered them the ultra hard brexit they asked for.
That it fell down after that is down to the impossibility of his and their dreams. Repeating the propaganda that they were let down by him just allows them to try and act the victims and promise that if they were allowed to do it then it would work.
the note about there being “No Money Left”,
Something to thank the libdems for with David Laws turning a dubious private joke into an attack piece especially since he misquoted it.
I guess you could point out to them other chancellors did similar eg the tory Maudling to his labour replacement saying “Good luck, old cock, sorry to leave it in such a mess.”
He delivered them the ultra hard brexit they asked for.
Until Lancaster bombers are once again carpet bombing Dresden, they won’t be happy. They cannot be placated until their mad fantasy world is delivered. As the Tory party are presently finding out. It’s the most poetic justice I’ve ever seen! **** ‘em!
None of the contenders have anything that marks them out for leadership, and yet something or someone has convinced the Sunaks, Trusses, Badenochs, Bravermans and Jenricks that they are fit candidates for prime minister
not much different when Major took over from Maggie. Had been chancellor for a few years- before that was unknown.
Or the Tories manage a deal with Reform (seems unlikely), the shy Tories feel obliged to come out and vote on a warm spring day/evening, and the wavering Tories see nothing positive coming from Labour so stick with the devil they know. And the Tories sneak back in via a coalition or minority government.
I can see that happening. Labour have not won it yet and the less Starmer appears to offer (by the week) the more what is the point, they are all the same type stuff will happen.
None of the contenders have anything that marks them out for leadership, and yet something or someone has convinced the Sunaks, Trusses, Badenochs, Bravermans and Jenricks that they are fit candidates for prime minister
This is the problem with wedding yourself to the batshit mental doctrine of Brexit.
Everyone left in the Tory party still believes in Brexit (plus a few other insane things like the Liz Truss Economics Policy). That means they're unbelievably ****ing thick.
It's like trying to find a scientist at a Flat Earth convention. Everyone there fervently believes in Flat Earth therefore they are, by definition, too stupid to be a fit candidate for any science lab anywhere on the globe. Yet they all believe that they have Found Something, that they are the sole knowers of secret knowledge that The Establishment is covering up in its woke leftie globe conspiracy. So any candidate they put forward as Lead Scientist is going to be a complete disaster.
Same here - the Tories could change PM every month and they'd all be as bad as each other. None of them are fit to run a bath, never mind a country.
I'd forgotten about the by elections, just caught up on the results.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Obviously Starmer's Labour party has got it all wrong and will be rejected by the electorate.
I can see that happening. Labour have not won it yet and the less Starmer appears to offer (by the week) the more what is the point, they are all the same type stuff will happen.
I'm genuinely worried complacency could **** us over again...
I’m genuinely worried complacency could **** us over again…
I don't think it will. The overwhelming evidence is that the Tories will not win the next general election but thanks to the peculiarities of first-past-the-post it is extremely hard to predict how many seats parties will win.
So the predictions range from a Labour minority government to a Labour government with a two hundred plus majority. The difference between the two depends on relative little movement percentage wise. It will therefore still be important to go out and vote.
Add to that the fact that the electorate appear to be feeling far more than the usual and expected fatigue after more than a decade of the same party in power, if that was the case the polls would be much closer, with support for the Tories in the low twenties (they have never polled less than 30% in a GE) it suggests a very strong dislike for Tory politicians - which in itself will motivate voters.
Labour's stunning and historical by-election wins yesterday were very widely predicted, complacency did not save the Tories.
I’m genuinely worried complacency could **** us over again…
Yep - this idea that the election is as good as won (by Labour), they're polling higher, it'll be great etc could be swung around easily by a few more anti-semitic comments from Labour backbenchers, a bit more fence-sitting / dithering / flip-flopping from SKS and this idea that we just need to wait for the Tories to lose.
gaslighting has become the norm for the Tories
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1758597735018533214?t=0VXataZlsR0S1B3nMBhIfw&s=19
the fact that a minister for common f--king sense exists says it all
It's fair to say that most of the populous just see straight through the lies now, they can see the country is broken, you dont have to look hard.
As for her saying Sunak interested a difficult situation or whatever she said, you'd think she ment Sunak had just taken over from Labour etc rather than from another Tory PM. Bless.
I dont think more Gaza cockups and a lack of clear policy is going to trump potholes, the NHS and cost of living. Most people dont understand the Gaza situation and are indifferent to Jewish people at best.
As long as Starmer doesnt go full Corbyn and make people think hes going to bump up benefits for scroungers or illegal immigrants from their take home pay he'll be OK.
For clarity I dont think benefits go to benefit scroungers or illegal immigrants in any consequential way befire somebody puts words in my mouth.
This amused me:
But a party spokesman gave a sanguine view of it all. “The Government of the day rarely win by-elections,” they reasoned. “Both of these seats have been Labour recently and they require smaller swings than were seen in recent by-elections.”
We’d love to hear their definition of “recently”. Kingswood has been a Tory seat for fourteen years, and Labour last held Wellingborough nineteen years ago, in 2005. By that metric, Tony Blair was recently re-elected Prime Minister, and the iPod shuffle was recently invented.
Commentator on here the other day pointed out about Labour ‘putting money in other peoples pockets, what many of the electorate don’t realise is they are the other people’
I liked that.
latest torygraph poll has them 22pts behind, that's be less than 100 seats..
https://twitter.com/WStoneInsight/status/1758986851086409794?t=dDP6eOs5GFdDVTL5ISH4ww&s=19
You know that Sunak is absolutely desperate now.
The Guardian are reporting that he’s bowing to pressure from the headbangers and talking about bringing the fly-tipped sofa back like he has done with ‘Dave’
Because elevating two former failed PM’s to the Lords so as to get them back in the cabinet is a great look. Give it a few weeks and no doubt Truss will be back too
The Labour Party need to steal that and plaster it everywhere just so everybody get the message (as some probably haven't even after 13 years).
A lot of that 20% that are still saying they will vote tory are not benefitting from having a tory government and it should probably be closer to 5% or maybe they just realise it won't be that different under current Labour other than the words nastier and brutish would need to be removed (or I hope they will)