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It’s ok, Jeremy (H)unt is going to cut public spending even more to fund tax breaks ahead of the election
And it's criminal because he doesn't need to cut public spending to do it.
The whole tax cut job is lie upon a lie.
It doesn't work either. You need new money going in.
Getting more pessimistic about an early chance to get rid of these scumbags
we will know in a few weeks as they need 25 working days plus time to debate it, so with Easter in the way he'll have to announce it in s free weeks
a complete collapse in labours numbers might convince him but even then i think its incredibly unlikely he won't wait until the autumn. Hes got a plan dontcha know!
Encouraging everyone to believe that there will be a Spring general election and then not calling for one until the Autumn won’t do him any favours. He would be much better off discouraging talk of a May general election if he hasn’t yet made up his mind.
Rishi Sunak’s number one priority now has to be at the very least to avoid Tory electoral Armageddon, although no doubt in his dreams to deny Labour a working majority.
A few weeks ago I honestly believed he was holding out for Autumn. But I really don't think he can hold the rest of them in line that long. An early election would have been a 'threat' to many of them before but it's clear many are starting to relish the idea of becoming culture war shit-stirrers, whether or not they're still in the commons...
The threat of an early election only has any meaning now to MPs that haven't lined up a GBN or Tufton St gig...
When are the votes? Id it tomorrow or am I totally wrong?
In a galaxy far, far way as the country falls apart and The Express demand tax cuts...
Meanwhile, back to reality the FT are pointing out that pretty much any economist that's a real, well, economist says that further cuts to finance tax cuts are just madness...
Still, your average Express reader that likes to complain about the NHS will of course, never join the dots.
The tax and spend system is being played in the most ridiculous way, all to our detriment. No party really spending, and cuts that will do nothing. Welcome to no growth and poor services. (Whereas the USA went on a stimulus and spending spree and are enjoying chunky growth. 3-4% growth the Tories can only dream of.)
We shortly find out if our economy slipped into recession with a second neg Q4.
Very close, and either way we are probably still in massive flatline territory. But don't underestimate the political capital to be made of this either way.
There you go. We're in a recession.
The Tories have just crushed another one of their favourite metrics.
Q4 shrank 0.3%
These total idiots. No growth without spending you absolute fools.
Looking forward to Tories talking this one up. Every metric that sits on top of a neoliberal economy requires a source of new money creation to work. Well done everyone involved. Your tax cuts will do little to save you.
The non-governmental sector requires a public sector deficit to expand. Lack of growth shows not enough is being spent.
Tories will probably say its an expected mild dip. And we're on track etc.
https://twitter.com/DEhnts/status/1758030477439439024?t=6q7UKTHWXEE7-hQyST3bBA&s=19
Looking forward to Tories talking this one up.
They already prepared the ground months ago:
Inflation in the Thatcherite favourite metric, even at the cost of mass unemployment and austerity.
Inflation in the Thatcherite favourite metric, even at the cost of mass unemployment and austerity.
Other than it could easily prove sticky now as CPI remained at 4%.
The fact they expect it to go to 2% is bizarre anyway. And not supported -like a lot of these indicators by any solid ground work.
It's bad news for the Tories.
The fact they expect it to go to 2% is bizarre anyway.
Rishi Sunak was clever enough to declare that his aim was to half inflation, not the Bank of England target, so he has already claimed victory over that.
https://www.politico.eu/article/boost-rishi-sunak-fall-uk-inflation-rate-meet-key-pledge/
Rishi Sunak declares victory as fall in UK inflation rate meets his pledge
If he wants to "stop the boats", he could just publicise the latest economics data abroad....
So the BoE target which is set by the Government is now no longer relevent?
And we all know it was nothing to do with Tories that inflation halved.
Also the use of the term 'technical recession ' is total bollocks to minimise the news impact.
It was pretty obvious back in the autumn that things were going to get worse for the Tories this year.
Do we really think the Tories are going to call an election in the middle of recession news? Be interesting that one.
nil/zilch/zero/nought/zip growth for 21 months aint a great look, that's Brexit Baby!
nil/zilch/zero/nought/zip growth for 21 months aint a great look, that’s Brexit Baby!
Well partly but we've been on a decline for years other than when GDP was pushed up with health spending in the pandemic.
Lack of government investment is the absolute reason. Exports are a cost to resources in real terms even if they do add to GDP.
Lots of layers here.
Didn't I hear a Tory saying we had to cut public spending to bring down inflation.
Didn’t I hear a Tory saying we had to cut public spending to bring down inflation.
It's the Thatcherite way. Although ironically Thatcher increased public spending - mass unemployment costs a lot of money. Which is why North Sea oil revenues and selling off public assets was so useful to her.
To be fair though before the international banking crisis Gordon Brown had developed an obsession with public sector pay rises allegedly fueling inflation. New Labour had a similar preoccupation with inflation.
they missed a trick though let me fix it for them 😕
It’s the Thatcherite way. Although ironically Thatcher increased public spending – mass unemployment costs a lot of money
Thats the problem with thatcherism that eventually you run out of taxpayers assets to sell off cheap and the bills come due for those you are renting back.
It's an absolute economic shitshow for Labour coming in. As usual.
Rishi Sunak was clever enough to declare that his aim was to half inflation, not the Bank of England target, so he has already claimed victory over that.
Has anyone in the media actually asked him what measures he took to achieve this amazing feat? Because it's basically sod all to do with him.
I think you'll find your mistaken.
If inflation goes up, this is entirely due to factors outside the governments control
If inflation goes down, it is because of bold (yet undefined) actions taken by the Rishi
I hope thats cleared things up
Is the only plan left to hang on long enough that the ‘left’ implodes in a fit of self-loathing, navel gazing, and theyp can scrape enough seats to tempt the Lib Dem’s again with a promise of a few ministerial perks…
Well, and to court the hard right fruitloops so they withdraw their candidates in key seats. Running out of time to brown-nose Farage and Tice though for this election though. Those two may be playing a longer game which eventually gives them control of the Conservative Party itself, as Farage has found that it's virtually impossible to become an MP just standing for a separate RW party.
There you go. We’re in a recession.
It's worse than that. Two quarters of contraction in real GDP terms but GDP per person has dropped every quarter since 2022 Q1. 7 consecutive quarters of drops in GDP per person (which is basically "living standards"), the longest unbroken run of contraction since records began in 1955.
Well done Tories!
I'd be interested to know how much of an impact the HS2 cancellation has had - you can't just knock colossal infrastructure projects out of the sky like that without severe impacts on the entire pipeline of operations (plus the related impact on supporting projects, regeneration that was predicated on having a nice fast train line connecting it).
BBC seems to be at great pains to say that it's not a problem.
But the whole point of having a technical definition for recession is that it only gets triggered when there is sustained GDP shrinkage. So when it meets those criteria it's worthy of note.
Phew its only a mild start to the recession. That sounds positively cheerful so top points to the beeb for lessening that embarrassing fact for the tories on election day.
A question which springs to mind is does the mildness of the start have any relation to how bad the recession ends up being.
tempt the Lib Dem’s again with a promise of a few ministerial perks
As has been pointed out previously, any LD coalition has to be signed off by the membership, who are largely more centre-left than the centre-right leadership. I suspect the majority would crawl all the way to Mars over broken glass to vote against a coalition with the Tories, and a requirement of any coalition with Lab would be serious constitutional reform.
Don't forget too that the Tories are much further right than they were in 2010 and frankly they are out of potential coalition partners.
Phew its only a mild start to the recession.
To misquote Hemmingway:
How did you become bankrupt? "Slowly at first..."
Is the only plan left to hang on long enough that the ‘left’ implodes in a fit of self-loathing, navel gazing, and theyp can scrape enough seats to tempt the Lib Dem’s again with a promise of a few ministerial perks…
Tory HQ clearly following the Starmer thread then....
When I read that about the "mildest start to a recession" I thought they were referring to the fact it's 12C outside in mid Feb.
Elephant? What elephant?
Don’t forget too that the Tories are much further right than they were in 2010 and frankly they are out of potential coalition partners.
In what way are the Tories "much further" to the right now than they were in 2010?
Presumably not in economic terms as in 2010 the Tories were totally committed to austerity with a cruel and callous disregard for the devastation it caused the fabric of society, and all the of the thousands of deaths attributed to it.
Edit: And not on health and social care either:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/mar/20/health-bill-failure-conservative-politics
Edit2: Nor on housing
Their right wing level is the same, they just don't bother trying to hide the shittiest part of of it anymore as they realised they didn't need to.
I think I might agree with that ^^.
The only difference is probably presentation. David Cameron appears to have had the ability to convince some people that he was some sort of Tory moderate, despite the extreme right-wing and warmongering policies of his government.
David Cameron appears to have had the ability to convince some people that he was some sort of Tory moderate
What you mean is... his coalition government was a moderated Tory government (thanks to the LibDems)... since we the electorate punished the LibDems for that... we've had Tory government without anyone moderating them... so what you see now is you what you get if you vote Tory again. No excuses.
What you mean is… his coalition government was a moderated Tory government (thanks to the LibDems)…
No I don't think that his coalition government was a moderated Tory government. Presumably you do though (thanks to the LibDems) What policies do you think were moderated? Certainly not austerity, the bedroom tax, and the health and social care bill.
Edit: Btw the claim was made that "the Tories are much further right than they were in 2010", so my question was in what way? Not whether the LibDems had any moderating effect on them. You seem to agree that they were at least as right-wing in 2010.
The Tories seem to want us to believe that it was their plan all along to have the UK economy in recession in the run-up to a general election. The decision not to go to the polls in Autumn, when all the signs were that this was coming, is looking more and more like a stroke of genius.
Yup, the Chancellor appointed by Liz Truss - who had to face the "anti-growth coalition" has never considered growth to be a priority. Apparently.