I suspect the PM has the numbers.
She also knows that the Brexiteers are not going to get any other deal from the EU, so the only option to her course is a No Deal.
I don't think there's sufficient hard core Brexiteers to carry a candidate for that.
And what has any other candidate got to offer?
It will be interesting to see which names go up for this very poisoned chalice.
It will be interesting to see which names go up for this very poisoned chalice.
I expect to see BoJo in the running certainly, though i also expect to see his bid "torpedoed" again by saving him the trouble of winning but firmly keeping his hat in the ring for the next run off when there is a prize to be won.
I wouldn't be surprised to see JRM doing the torpedoe-ing leaving Davis or Rabb as the brexit candidate, either of whom can at that point say "I've done this already, I've been in that room, we'll get no more concessions so we're off without a deal rather than waste anymore time", that also has the "advantage" there is no deal for parliament to have it's meaningful vote on.
Wouldn't count on the spanish governmanet so much. Our current president is one of the most inept politicians of our era, that is president through a no confidence vote and alliances with our pseudo communist party. That statement is him trying get some rep with the other EU nations.
If you want to argue about scotland start another thread?
As for May - I think she is driven by a sense of duty and she saw it as her duty to try to get a brexit that was not too damaging and had some advantages in her eyes. She knows that the other candidates would not be able to do this. so she took it on.
She has come back with a deal ( given her red lines) that is far better than I thought possible and the EU have moved a long way - 'cos they too know that any other tory leader would be worse
I do think she means well on this - just the task is an insoluble one.
She has come back with a deal ( given her red lines) that is far better than I thought possible
I do think she means well on this – just the task is an insoluble one.
All things considered i think she's done pretty well too, the MayWay was a whole heap better than i expected but was never going to keep everyone happy all of the time which seems to be the bar that's been set.
Not interested in having a discussion about Scotland. I didn't even mention it in my post, but I am in giving some much needed background information to your statement-which I did. Taking any statement from the current Spanish government at face value, would be a grave mistake.
Ronnie Pickering
that also has the “advantage” there is no deal for parliament to have it’s meaningful vote on.
Not so. 'No deal' also requires a vote:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit
That's why we're remaining. There's no majority for anything else.
I don’t think May has ever said “do you know who I am?”
Makes you think..
If May does go my bet would be a compromise winner - Like Major of May herself - elected by the tories to stop others like Johnson
Don’t forget Bojo , Rees Moog etc don’t have to throw their hat in the ring yet
They just need May to lose the vote.....
Changes things a bit as they can calculate a n other would fare just as bad and sit back till brexit happens in whatever shape,
Then put up as challenger after the next general election goes wrong
That’s why we’re remaining. There’s no majority for anything else
There's no majority for anything as best i can tell and, given the current trajectory I'm not entirely sure how we remain without some major change of course.
Not so. ‘No deal’ also requires a vote...
IANAL but your reading differs very much from mine, no deal is not a negotiated withdrawal agreement, section 13 specifically relates to a negotiated withdrawal agreement, it doesn't require that no agreement also get consent, it's mainly there, more is the pity, to ensure we don't end up with a remainer's brexit since the PLP would finally be forced to admit it's pro leave* and vote against any such agreement. Failure to ratify the negotiated agreement does not change the date of 29th March.
*at present it seems the PLP is simply anti gov't in honesty, they'd vote down the entirety of the PLP manifesto if May put it forward.
Wouldn’t count on the spanish governmanet so much. Our current president is one of the most inept politicians of our era, that is president through a no confidence vote and alliances with our pseudo communist party. That statement is him trying get some rep with the other EU nations.
Still better than the thieving PP scum that were in government before him. And I think May will probably win the vote, or possibly Rudd. I can't see any of the Brexit campaigners getting in, least of all that **** BoJo.
There’s no majority for anything as best i can tell
I'm pretty sure there *is* a remain majority in the HOC. In contrast we *know* for a fact there's no majority for the deal and no-deal is even less popular than the deal.
and, given the current trajectory I’m not entirely sure how we remain without some major change of course.
Easy. Tell the EU we can't agree and will have to remain. Present it to the Brexiteers as a pause for a rethink. Kick it into the long grass.
The EU are well aware the default is remain, that's why they're playing it the way they are.
Will be decided in the NY surely if there is a leadership contest, Parliament goes into recess on the 20th.
IANAL but your reading differs very much from mine, no deal is not a negotiated withdrawal agreement, section 13 specifically relates to a negotiated withdrawal agreement, it doesn’t require that no agreement also get consent, it’s mainly there, more is the pity, to ensure we don’t end up with a remainer’s brexit since the PLP would finally be forced to admit it’s pro leave and vote against any such agreement. Failure to ratify the negotiated agreement does not change the date of 29th March.
I take your point. I was perhaps putting too much weight on this:
This effectively gives MPs a further meaningful vote in the event they vote down the deal, allowing them to express a view on what should happen next. While any such amendments would not be legally binding on the Government, they would be politically significant.
...and frankly, if the only way forward that didn't require a vote was 'No deal' then brexiteers would be delighted and would have no need to try to put pressure May. SO I still think there is a pretty strong impediment to 'no deal' which must be that non-legally binding vote. (Of course, the referendum itself wasn't legally binding.)
The EU are well aware the default is remain
Only since the EU Withdrawal Act got passed it's not, it's leave. We're legally bound to do so, I'm not even sure there is enough time to table legislation now to change that before 29/03. VB [Victorious Brexit/Very Bad] Day is coming, agreed withdrawal or no, the sooner the remain majority of whom you speak get their heads out of their backsides and back the option on the table the better, at the rate they're going goldilocks will still be choosing her porridge when the bears come home and now there's every chance the deal will get pulled awayfrom them by some right wing leaveloony who manages to wrest control from May.
and would have no need to try to put pressure May
They're petrified she's going to come back with a acceptable deal, this is their main play to stop it, though the accelerated rate of this vote and the subsequent contest if indeed there is one, will hurt that. This is just filibuster, as in deed will be any GE Corbyn manages to engineer so he gets hard brexit and zero fallout.
Only since the EU Withdrawal Act got passed it’s not, it’s leave. We’re legally bound to do so, I’m not even sure there is enough time to table legislation now to change that before 29/03. VB [Victorious Brexit/Very Bad] Day is coming, agreed withdrawal or no, the sooner the remain majority of whom you speak get their heads out of their backsides and back the option on the table the better, at the rate they’re going goldilocks will still be choosing her porridge when the bears come home and now there’s every chance the deal will get pulled awayfrom them by some right wing leaveloony who manages to wrest control from May.
and would have no need to try to put pressure May
They’re petrified she’s going to come back with a acceptable deal, this is their main play to stop it, though the accelerated rate of this vote and the subsequent contest if indeed there is one, will hurt that. This is just filibuster, as in deed will be any GE Corbyn manages to engineer so he gets hard brexit and zero fallout.
I think Occam's razor supports my version: "Default is remain, Brexitters getting jumpy." rather than your's "Default is NoDeal, Brexiteers getting jumpy in case of the offchance that the Default doesn't happen.".
If we were close to a No Deal I'd expect the remainers to be more jumpy than the Brexiteers no vice versa.
However, my political predictions are always wrong, and it looks like you're right, no deal could legally happen in spite of a commons vote against it.
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Can we stay on topic please guys? It's probably escaped everyone's attention, but there's a short thread running elsewhere which is already discussing leave / remain and we don't need a duplicate.
Thanks.
</mod>
Just having a look at my betting app and in February this year I put a tenner on Phillip Hammond at 10/1 as the next Tory leader.
I still reckon I could win that, simply on account of him being the only person in the Tory party who doesn't appear to be absolutely unhinged
Tory party who doesn’t appear to be absolutely unhinged
And that makes him a suitable leadership candidate for the current Tory party how?
these MP's are meant to be serving our people. They are like a bunch of children when in the commons. Wish they would get behind the PM. I hope she stays.
If these rabble were children the lot of them would be on...
Seems she's safe for now, she needed 158 votes to be safe, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they'll vote for her and many haven't been asked yet.
Unless of course the Tory party is a den of two-faced vipers, who'll say they'll back her and then do her dirty in the secret ballot.
Will she come over all Corbyn and purge the unfaithful from the cabinet (if any Ministers vote against her) and then get the party to deselect them next election?
Unless of course the Tory party is a den of two-faced vipers, who’ll say they’ll back her and then do her dirty in the secret ballot.
Tory politicians saying they'll do something and then actually doing something else entirely would be totally unprecedented.
Seems she’s safe for now, she needed 158 votes to be safe, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they’ll vote for her and many haven’t been asked yet.
If Australian politics is anything to go by, you don't nail your colours till you know it's on. There will be persuasive arguments in the room and more to trade as we go through the process.
But what that really means is currently about 100 Tory MP's do not have confidence in the government.
Will she come over all Corbyn and purge the unfaithful from the cabinet (if any Ministers vote against her) and then get the party to deselect them next election?
Unless they plan on doing 3 jobs not much hope with the other failures and disgraced in there.
But what that really means is currently about 100 Tory MP’s do not have confidence in the government.
I suspect 100pc of Tory MP's do not have confidence in the government. The problem is with zero room for manoeuvre beyond the obvious three options any other Government would be in exactly the same position.
If that wasn't the case May would have resigned after the last election and again when it was clear her flagship deal didn't have a majority.
Can we stay on topic please guys? It’s probably escaped everyone’s attention, but there’s a short thread running elsewhere which is already discussing leave / remain and we don’t need a duplicate.
Thanks.
I see what you're saying but the two things are intrinsically linked, it's quite dificult to have a conversation about a PM who's had a vote of confidence called precisely because of her negotiated Brexit deal, without discussing Brexit...
Her fortunes are still tied up with the whole Leave/Remain split in her party (and TBF the country as a whole) the referendum didn't make people magically agree, and given there was a 2% margin in it two years ago it's hardly suprising there's not really a clear way forward.
Win or Lose tonight, BoJo, Moggy & Co will keep stiring the shit. The point isn't to take hold of the party/country just yet, it's to maintain the narrative that "The People" (who desparately want a full fat Brexit) aren't being properly represented by their government, that the deal is closer to what Remoaners want, and the only solution is to replace May and Chums with some old etonians who really care for the common man's plight...
How low can you get? Charlie Elphicke just announced he has had the Tory whip restored (just in time for the vote) whilst the investigation is still ongoing over the sex offence allegations he was suspended for in the first place. No shame!
Some random things going on...
https://twitter.com/CharlieElphicke/status/1072887664720969728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072887664720969728&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46533245
In case you are wondering
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Elphicke
He was suspended from the Conservative Party in November 2017, after he was accused of sex offences against two members of his staff; he is subject to an ongoing investigation.
Looks like confirmation the compromise is stays for Brexit, leaves after - so still no deal anybody likes
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1072881860055916545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072881860055916545&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46533245
And what does Good Look Like?
And another one has had whip restored - Andrew Griffiths who was suspended back in July over sexting scandal.
I'll bet there will be a few honours dished out over the coming days as well.
Remember when politics was rarely in the news unless an MP has been caught having an affair?
I miss those days.
I suspect 100pc of Tory MP’s do not have confidence in the government
Well you can't say they're not representative of the general public at least.
174 say they'll support her, I'd be surprised if that doesn't whittle down a little in practice - it's not enough of a margin publicly at least look safe and therefore to keep the greedy from trading for positions in the subsequent cabinet - but sounds, thankfully, as though she'll make it past the post.
Someone earlier mentioned May's backers maybe forcing this early and, whilst I'm not sure they'd want the risk, i can see an outcome where this is pitched as "most want the deal so the dissenters need to shut up and get with the program"
Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, says: "The bigger the vote against the prime minister, the more emboldened will be those minded to vote against her deal.
"If she has got over 200 votes, that can be regarded as a reasonable outcome.
"If much more than 100 Tory MPs vote against her she is going to be struggling to remain in her position for very long.
"100 MPs voting against her would imply that either ministers had voted against her or a majority of Conservative backbenchers have voted against her."
Some number analysis from the BBC there, 100 looks like a key number against.
And another one has had whip restored – Andrew Griffiths who was suspended back in July over sexting scandal.
They are shameless. That is disgusting.
They are shameless. That is disgusting.
Whilst i don't doubt there's a huge amount of electioneering involved i do wonder how much it's to do with entitlement to vote too, given they're technically still serving Tory MPs even if they're effectively sittingas independents.
So the full line up of contenders for the PM position are revealed.
Davros from the Daleks.
Mr Blobby
Timmy Mallett
The Sheriff of Nottingham
Pinocchio
Mr Burns
Kim Jon Ill
The staypuft Marshmallow man
Skeletor
Basil Faulty
Grotbags
& Murdoch from the ATeam.
Who have I missed?
@out of breath
If there's no withdrawal agreement, the Government will table a neutral motion; Parliament can amend it. This is effectively advice to the government.
But the UK will still leave the EU on 29th March, as that is a consequence of Article 50, which was approved by Parliament after Gina Miller's legal challenge. Whilst many of our MPs have reservations about Brexit, they didn't take the opportunity to debate them then and those arguments are unresolved.
And others could table a binding motion to revoke a50 which would =mean we stay in. There is a hge majority in parliament for avoiding a no deal leave
And others could table a binding motion to revoke a50 which would =mean we stay in. There is a hge majority in parliament for avoiding a no deal leave
Yes but we already discovered they are willing to put the results of the referendum over their personal views.
I can't remember a time when politics has been so interesting (I was too young to really understand the miners strike - to my shame). I would like to believe that a second referendum would be better as in more clearly discussed but I'm not really sure that is true
molgrips - but they also know that if the tories produce a crash out leave the tories are dead as a party because of the damage it would cause. If everyone but the tories and DUP vote to revoke a50 and the tories allow a no deal brexit then the tories will be blamed for the resultant damage. also it would only take half a dozen to vote to revoke a50.
Well listening to R4 on the way home i can't help thinking "Ken Clarke for PM"
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall"
Without doubt my favourite tory*
* not the toughest competition, in fairness
