Yep, unshackle him and let him sort this out.
I read earlier that every time there is a leadership contest, the number of mp going against the pm is higher than predicted.
You have missed Diane Abbot from that list.
with number crunching skills like hers that is exactly who we neeed steering the ship through troubled waters
Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, says: “The bigger the vote against the prime minister, the more emboldened will be those minded to vote against her deal.
“If she has got over 200 votes, that can be regarded as a reasonable outcome.
“If much more than 100 Tory MPs vote against her she is going to be struggling to remain in her position for very long.
“100 MPs voting against her would imply that either ministers had voted against her or a majority of Conservative backbenchers have voted against her.”
The vote on the deal was pulled because it had no chance of success so that's not telling us anything.If there are 317 MPs then both the above scenarios are possible so what does he mean?? Are those quotes out of context because they are contradictory and don't make sense.Some professor 😉
Or just he simplified it for simple people... lets just assume he meant over 217 shall we and consider the implications listed.
100 MPs voting against her would imply that either ministers had voted against her or a majority of Conservative backbenchers have voted against her
Are those quotes out of context because they are contradictory and don’t make <span class="skimlinks-unlinked">sense.Some</span> professor 😉
There will be a (substantial) number of abstentions according to C4, neither backing her nor condemning her.
Your shot.
100 MPs voting against means 100 MPs voted against her. But 200 for her is a reasonable outcome! Anyway let's not quibble yet and wait for the result
I’m really hoping she gets 165 votes, and gives the statement, ‘You lost. Get over it.’
‘You lost. Get over it.’
Plus
I like the stakes of it. Because yes, even most of the rapid brexiteers don't actually want the job, they want Theresa May to continue to fail to achieve anything, so that we can crash out no-deal in the worst possible way, that way nobody in the party ever has to take the blame for actually wanting that particular disaster and they can blame the EU.
But by voting her back in, they're specifically giving the party's backing, at this moment, to her and to her rubbish deal that nobody at all likes that she knows she can't get through the commons.
That's the sort of dilemma that I'm quite pleased to see these total arseholes stuck in. I feel like either option is similarly damaging for the country, so I'm quite hoping whichever they choose does maximum damage to the tories. Whether that's putting some bampot in charge so he can try and charge off the cliff, or zombie theresa back in charge so she can continue in her totally hopeless quest for a bit longer, I don't know.
She could theoretically win by 49-48 and the rest abstentions (I choose 48 because you assume the letter writers have the balls to follow it up)
It's not 'quibbling' - you are just doing the maths that 317 - 100 is > 200 and therefore suggesting she can have a good and bad result at the same time, when in reality there is third option and your maths isn't necessarily accurate. And criticising the Professor at the same time, who is very respected.
But yes, let's see. I'm not a fan, but I am hopeful she wins a landslide and puts the ERG bastards firmly back in their box for a long time.
But yes, let’s see. I’m not a fan, but I am hopeful she wins a landslide and puts the ERG bastards firmly back in their box for a long time.
My feeling too. Just who does JRM think he is?
Last minute predictions?
Higher or lower than 60 votes against her?
Higher, with about 20 abstain
I'll go with around 80-90 against, followed swiftly by 317 people saying they backed her at the vote.
C’mon lads
Has she been booted out ?
Y
or
N
Do you not have access to the news there??
N it would have been leaked by now.
Look, I come here for the shits n giggles and to get the News.
So, c’mon.
You lot are the experts... I value you opinions and insight.
I gather then it’s a N
Thank you and Good Night.
boooo!
200 vs 117 against...
200 for 117 against
200-117 so prof what's the implications 🙂
Tòooooooo slloooowwwwww......
100 MPs voting against her would imply that either ministers had voted against her or a majority of Conservative backbenchers have voted against her
About that, it's not a good result, if you want to be a dick about technicality she did not get over 200 votes. Over 1/3 of the people who do not hold a majority in parliament do not have confidence in the PM
We have May for another year. She sees her Brexit plan through, we suck it up while her despots plot for her successor in December 2019.
117 against, coat is still on a shoogly peg. Just a matter of time when defeated in brexit vote
We have May for another year. She sees her Brexit plan through, we suck it up while her despots plot for her successor in December 2019.
Not a certainty
Though I'm sure Andrew Neil is enjoying telling JRM He Lost
More confidence than people who voted her in. It counters the Labour argument about her support also.
Or is it a conspiracy to force her to fall on her own Brexit agreement sword...
117 against is another blow to her authority. She will continue on tho after all 'tis merely a flash wound
Zero chance of her deal getting through with up to 117 of her own Mps against her.
More confidence than people who voted her in. It counters the Labour argument about her support also.
199 vs 200? On that occasion she actually had a named opponent, at this point it was her or a massive constitutional crisis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election
Ouch. There goes any sort of deal then.
Still i suppose now we've got the certainty [of a no deal brexit] that we've been craving for the last 18 months.
Oh and not to go all Binners
Oh and not to go all Binners
It's a sorry state of affairs when we're hoping he might save us with a no confidence vote in the government.
He won't be tabling that until March 30th.
Wonder if she will boot out any of the 117 ? That would be funny. Boris first.
Better than losing a no confidence vote 172-40, I suppose.
It’s a sorry state of affairs when we’re hoping he might save us with a no confidence vote in the government.
He won’t be tabling that until March 30th.
I'd say there are several steps to go, she still has to bring her deal to a vote, it currently has zero chance of passing. This is a vote that needs to be passed before March.
Doesn't necessarily follow that the 117 who voted against her would automatically oppose the Brexit deal; equally the 200 for won't necessarily support it.
This was an issue of confidence; now she's won that I suspect there will be some of her opponents will see voting her deal down as effectively writing their own suicide note and change their side.
Still can't see she has the numbers to get it through though, so we're back where we were on Monday. Except Mogg and co now can be told to back her or vote themselves out of power.
Wonder if she will boot out any of the 117 ? That would be funny. Boris first.
On what authority?
117 against is another blow to her authority.
You've been listening to JRM. Meanwhile the 52/48 Brexit vote is a crushing victory.
Doesn’t necessarily follow that the 117 who voted against her would automatically oppose the Brexit deal; equally the 200 for won’t necessarily support it.
This. The Tories will now close ranks.
117 against is another blow to her authority.
You’ve been listening to JRM. Meanwhile the 52/48 Brexit vote is a crushing victory.
117 represents a lot of MP's, some of them will be cabinet ministers, she has lost plenty so far, every analyst who is not a TM loyalist says it's a big deal. She doesn't have a majority in parliament, the DUP are not 117 strong. She has some very big problems especially as her chances of bringing back anything other than a bit of a vague maybe are slim to none, how does this help her get her deal through parliament
We have May for another year. She sees her Brexit plan through, we suck it up while her despots plot for her successor in December 2019.
#wipesbrow
Phew, I mean... like man... that was exciting wasn’t it.
Punch and Judy played out with the #smallb british public at the heart of everyone’s cohesive mindset, not just those few who play out their egos in the public domain for all to see.
✌️🤷♂️
When it comes down to it, it’s just a bunch of no-hopers kicking sand in each other’s faces whilst waiting for their nappies to be changed and then fed from the bottle.
British Politics is quite frankly Bollox.
mikewsmith, yes she will lose the vote on the deal, she was always going to.
Kryton57
Subscriber
More confidence than people who voted her in. It counters the Labour argument about her support also.
Not really. She still couldn't get them to vote for her deal, so she's just as lacking in support as she was yesterday.
The only real difference is that now the party's all tied to the mast- it's not May's Deal any more, they've backed her, it's the whol party's deal that's going to dismally fail.
117 of her own party having no confidence in her - thats a huge blow and in normal times would be immediately followed by a resignation. I cannot remember the numbers but Thatcher won her confidence vote but still resigned.
Nothing really has changed tho - she still has no chance of getting her deal thru parliament and the threat of a hard brexit is away as we know that the UK government can cancel a50 so she can no longer pretend " my deal or no deal" Enough tories have a vestige of sense that NO deal is nver going to happen - that will not get thru parliament either
