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Indeed. Mind you given how Sturgeons popularity has increased it might not be too damaging anyway
I'm not sure her popularity has increased. The recent lockdown confusion restrictions ( is it a cafe/restaurant) served as a diversion from when it was made knowledgeable that she "forgot" about a meeting in which she believes she was told about harassment complaints against Alex Salmond. Basically amounts to misleading parliament. There seems to be a growing feeling that there is a lid being kept on the Salmond issues and nurse it along until after next year's elections. Ex labour representative George Galloway may become a thorn in their side now too.
Galloway is a __________
Self aggrandising...
Indefatigable person
Because it really doesn’t matter what Scotland votes for, we get what England wants.
To be honest you are just going down the identity rabbithole with a myopia that excludes everything you don't want to see. The UK parliament is for the UK, we have had plenty of Scots sat in the great offices of state. Your premise that "England" is a single cultural identity that drives UK politics is patent bollocks. The current state of UK politics isn't brilliant but it could be a lot worse and it needs to improve. The Scottish nationalist exceptionalism about the future nirvana of iS politics is a fairytale based on any real world experience of the past and current behaviours.
Getting back to the original point, Labour has the problem that it needs to inspire the centre that it has a plan and gain people's confidence it can deliver it. Some of this is a policy issue, but announcing anything near the centre risks having it stolen and adopted by the incumbents, the next is attracting talent there are too many grifters working their identity niche, they need people who can catch the imagination and draw people to them, finally they need to focus on taking apart the incumbents in Hollywood and Westminster and exposing issues that needs brains and a focus.
I saw Murphy the day after the 2015 election, he was sat in his car. He had the look of a man who was going to run a hosepipe from the exhaust...
For me if you support the Union that means you accept whichever party the majority of the English voters elect, and I can't see it not been right-wing for a seriously long time so you have to accept that you're voting Tory (no matter what YOU put on the ballot).
The current state of UK politics isn’t brilliant but it could be a lot worse and it needs to improve. The Scottish nationalist exceptionalism about the future nirvana of iS politics is a fairytale based on any real world experience of the past and current behaviours.
Its not exceptionalism to want the government you vote for, the government that will institute policies you want. The real world experience is that the scottish governments govern better and have the interests of the scots people at heart. Westminster does neither
Remeber 80% of scots voters vote for social democratic parties.
Well, you're going to get Tory or a Labour Govt that is only there because it is Tory-lite, having adopted whatever Tory policies it has to in order to be elected.
Its not exceptionalism to want the government you vote for,
I think it's pretty fair to say that the vast majority of people who cast a vote in a GE want a Westminster government by the party they vote for. But in the UK if you vote for a party that isn't standing in most of the 650 seats then it's fair to say you already recognise you aren't going to get that. That's your choice, it's no different to electing an independent MP, you should accept that to demand government by that person is unreasonable.
the government that will institute policies you want.
People often vote on a "least worst basis", plenty of people have rather shocking views on a number of issues, I'm personally glad they don't get what they want and have to vote for what are essentially mainstream policies
The real world experience is that the scottish governments govern better and have the interests of the scots people at heart.
Are you sure? Have you drunk the Kool-aid? I would suggest that the Scottish government and it's policies continue the fine UK tradition of bunging money to grifters and fellow travellers. Failing in key areas and managing to bareface out any challenges due to the paucity of the opposition.
Westminster does neither
I presume there is a special lamp post for Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling etc etc come the revolution. After all they failed to have the interests of Scots people at heart when in power, the worst betrayal of all.
Remeber 80% of scots voters vote for social democratic parties.
As you well know this changes over time, just because an area votes one way doesn't mean it will always be that way. Even parties have moved where they are on the political spectrum
Load of piffle big and daft. 80% of scots have been voting for social democratic parties for decades
SNP government have done a load of good stuff including saving 10% of NHS spending by removing the internal market which of course also allows better planning. Stopping PFI, Mitigating the worst effects of tory cuts on benefits, keeping private companies out of benefit assessments, cleaning up corruption and ending expenses scandels
what you forget in you waffle is scotland is a country.
I do not think everything the SNP do is great but there is no doubt at all they act to the benefit of scotland not the UK
Of course the Blair labour government did not act in the interests of Scotland - they were the westminster government and frequently the needs of the two are differnt
Anyway =- its a long way from the discussion point of "how can labour recover in Scotland"
but there is no doubt at all they act to the benefit of scotland not the UK
As do all separatist movements
what you forget in you waffle is scotland is a country.
With the Same head of state who entered a political and fiscal union hundreds of years ago. The population of which very recently voted to keep the Union. ( I assume you will mount the old argument that things have changed, people should get the vote as often as they want (until you get the answer you want then the shutters come down) etc etc) Scots have led the UK you might not like what they did but they were in the seat of power making decisions.
Anyway =- its a long way from the discussion point of “how can labour recover in Scotland”
No it's not, Keir Hardie was happy enough to represent constituencies in England and Wales, the founding father of the movement demonstrating it's above the separatist politics of the aggrieved.
My goodness - how do you start to counter that load of piffle - best ignored I guess.
One thing they have to do, then a choice of one of two things.
1) The essential change- Stop treating the Tories as allies and the SNP as the hated enemy. They worked so hard to put Theresa May back into power in 2017, without the Labour-facilitated scottish tory resurgence she couldn't have formed her DUP alliance. Not only is that obviously a disaster, they thought it was a victory. Most of them still do.
If I could hold a purge, I'd find every single Labour MSP and MP and councellor that was delighted with every SNP seat lost to the Tories, and every one who said "Our voting share is up 2.8%!", and throw them in a volcano.
2) The choice. Either have a competent scottish leader and be independent, or have a useless scottish leader and be operated like a sockpuppet by a competent Westminster leader. It's strange but the better the Scottish leader, the more they get treated like a branch office, and the more useless they are, the more faith the westminster lead has in them. Corbyn's approach to the Scottish party could have worked if it hadn't been bloody awful Dugdale. And Miliband's treatment of the leadership would have been totally valid for a Dugdale, Murphy, or Richard "Who?" Leonard, but was totally wrong for Johann Lamont, the only halfdecent leader they've had this decade. Where is Starmer while Leonard proves his absolute uselessness?
Unless they sort these two, they're not even pointless, they're counterproductive. The goals of the Labour movement in Scotland would, for the last 3 elections, have been better served if the party had just vanished. Right now, they've risen to a sort of benevolent irrelevance, which would be better than the recent alternatives if they showed any signs of rising past it.
I hate it tbh. I mean, I'm an SNP voter, but I used to vote Labour tactically for years, since the SNP couldn't win in my seat. Now? I don't know what I'd do in that situation.
If every seat in Scotland had returned a Labour MP, the power would still be with the Tories… not just to control the UK government, but to strip the Scottish government of the powers and responsibilities it currently has. With the rest of the UK as it is politically, independence is the only way for Scotland to have any real say over the future of the country… I’m strongly unionist… but Scotland will be doing what I don’t want it to do… soon… to not do so would be to lose even what autonomy they have now, never mind to gain more.
Of course the Blair labour government did not act in the interests of Scotland – they were the westminster government.
Of course, its a well known fact that devolution was instigated in the late days of the Major government.
TJ, just because you don't agree with someone's viewpoint that does not make it "piffle". Ironically this is the sort of nonsense I'd expect from our present Labour incumbents. Other points of view exist.
If its factually incorrect?
Some aspects of the snp I loathe
nothing to do with independence though
kelvin
Full MemberIf every seat in Scotland had returned a Labour MP, the power would still be with the Tories…
In 2017, no. Without the 13 Scottish tories, May couldn't have formed a government with the DUP's 10 MPs. In fact the electoral maths meant that all she could have done, was form a dead-woman-walking minority government that could achieve basically nothing because the balance of MPs were opposed. In practice it'd have been another election.
Without the 13 Scottish tories, May couldn’t have formed a government with the DUP’s 10 MPs
And without the support of Labour in Scotland, there wouldn't have been 13 Scottish Tories.
Poah - correct which is why at the next Holyrood election I will lend my vote to the SNP in order to get independence
Northwind - correct. SNP taking votes off labour does not change things but Labour making way for 13 Scots tories did. The maths tho is still such that if you took out all scots MPs it would not have changed the government
Scotroutes - utterly disgraceful behaviour from labour and until they remember who the enemy is I will not vote for them. Scots labour people cheering tory wins is a sight I thought I would never see and Ian Murray was one of the main architects I believe.
disgraceful behaviour from an appalling man
scotroutes
Full MemberAnd without the support of Labour in Scotland, there wouldn’t have been 13 Scottish Tories.
Exactly. But like I say, most of the party leadership doesn't even acknowledge that was a mistake. Some of them genuinely think they had a good election. I mean, ffs, I'm Edinburgh South West and we damn nearly lost Joanna Cherry, and our Labour candidate was pleased as punch that his anti-SNP messaging had "hurt the independence movement"- even though it cost him votes and pushed him into 3rd. Mental. I barely saw a Tory leaflet let alone a doorstepper because they just sat back and let Choudhury do it for them.
And he's not even an actual halfwit despite appearances, he's a succesful and smart dude and seems all-round decent, except that he'd cut off his own knob if he thought the bloodstains would inconvenience Nicola Sturgeon.
If its factually incorrect?
Then prove as much. Put your money down.
I think your 80% figure is well out FWIW, in my bubble sure but 80% of the people outside it definitely don't strike me as the types. If I'm wrong feel free to put the figures in front of me but don't make the mistake of equating votes for a party as votes for a policy.
2019 GE
SNP Scottish National Party 45.0%
CON Conservative 25.1%
LAB Labour 18.6%
LD Liberal Democrat 9.5%
GRN Green 1.0%
75% social democratic parties
2016 Scottish election
SNP Scottish National Party 46.5
LAB Scottish Labour 22.6
CON Scottish Conservatives 22.0
LD Scottish Lib Dems 7.8
GRN Scottish Green Party 0.6
OTH OTHERS 0.5
78% social democratic parties
97 - 83% social democratic parties
2015 - 85% social democratic
Since 1979 tories have only once polled more than 30% and average is around 20% dropping to 15% so guess what - average is around 80% social democratic parties maybe 75%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1057795/scottish-election-results/
Infact thats wrong - tories have not polled over 30% since 79. 79 was the last time they did.
I thought I would actually work out the average to be helpful
since 1974 the average social democratic vote in Scotland is 78%
tories have not had the largest share of the vote in scotland since 1955
If its factually incorrect?
Go on enlighten us did I get Keir Hardie's biography wrong?
tories have not had the largest share of the vote in scotland since 1955
So the voting pattern in Scotland has changed over time and could not unreasonably be expected to change again?
I will lend my vote to the SNP in order to get independence
Englishman voting for Scots independence. As an aside how many nationalists who promised to leave the UK if there was a "no" vote actually went anywhere?
As for the 80% figure since 1979 you have had two UK Scottish "social democratic" prime ministers in that period. Strangely enough the one with the English constituency didn't get the "wrong accent/ wrong birthplace" abuse that the current Scottish labour leader gets north of the border.
Labour need to be electable in Westminster to recover in Scotland, their premise then becomes about having elected Scottish MP's in the offices of state making decisions, as opposed to Ian Blackford's crew stuck in no-mans land making overlong and futile speeches from the green benches. Essentially do you want your MP to be a Piper or a bag of wind?
My goodness – how do you start to counter that load of piffle – best ignored I guess.
I suppose if "independence" is the answer to everything, any other answer doesn't compute.
Until Labour stop taking political donations and freebies from corporations and other lobby groups, there's no hope of them ever being Labour again.
They're just red Tories.
That's the sort of attitude they have to overcome.
Labour need to be electable in Westminster to recover in Scotland
Yeah. I said that on the first page. It's just that I can't see them winning at Westminster any time soon, not unless they adopt many Tory policies, at which point who in Scotland would then vote for them? It's a conundrum right enough.
Fair enough, I thought the numbers would be lower. Follow on question though, what does that prove? Because UK-wide if you want to take your definition of basically anyone that's not a Tory or associated type is SD then 55-70odd percent of people vote that way.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/717004/general-elections-vote-share-by-party-uk/
He also makes a good point, what was actually untrue about anything he said?
Strangely enough the one with the English constituency didn’t get the “wrong accent/ wrong birthplace” abuse that the current Scottish labour leader gets north of the border.
Let's not forget all the abuse the Scots in the Labour government were getting south of the border and still do.
Until Labour stop taking political donations and freebies from corporations and other lobby groups
Careful how you handle those stones. Wouldn't want anyone thinking you were throwing them in that house of yours.
Something something fare regulation something something Souter...
I have never heard of leonard getting abuse for an english accent indeed I didn't realise he had one ( I have a tin ear for accents). Its ceretainly on a fringe position
Several insults thrown at me and a complete distortion of other issues. plus a load of whataboutery
Because UK-wide if you want to take your definition of basically anyone that’s not a Tory or associated type is SD then 55-70odd percent of people vote that way.
In the UK labour, snp, lib dems and greens clearly follow a social democratic path. Have the tories ( with their fellow travelers ukip) ever fallen below 30% in england?
Threre is a clear political differnce in voting patterns between scotland and england
squirrelking
Careful how you handle those stones. Wouldn’t want anyone thinking you were throwing them in that house of yours.Something something fare regulation something something Souter…
I vote for whoever offers independence. There's plenty that smells about the SNP.
Democracy suffers every time a politician or political party takes money or services from outside sources. It's also stupid because then you get the result Labour now has in Scotland.
It should be criminal to do so.
Several insults thrown at me
I didn't know being called an Englishman was an insult to those who are English.
Could you explain?
with their fellow travelers ukip
UKIP was such a successful flash in the pan (where are they now?) because they managed to tap into something that plenty of formerly "social democratic" voting people cared about. Their last powerbase was Wales, that well known conservative heartland.....
It's also how our political parties are funded, until you come up with a better solution we're stuck with it. At least Labour have a relationship with Unions unlike the other major parties.
In the UK labour, snp, lib dems and greens clearly follow a social democratic path. Have the tories ( with their fellow travelers ukip) ever fallen below 30% in england?
Er, no, I just said as much in the comment you're replying to.
Threre is a clear political differnce in voting patterns between scotland and england
Uh huh, 55-70% vs 70-85% so on average a 15% split. But that's all noise, what we should be asking is why so many vote for SD but get Tories instead. It's not Scotland getting robbed, it's everyone. This is why I get so annoyed with nationalism, instead of engaging with the actual problem the blame gets laid at the door of the "English". You can say what you like about Civic nationalism but at the end of the day you are still blaming someone else for our collective systemic issues. If you think that will change just because our borders get smaller you're going to be sorely disappointed.
There are good reasons for independence but hanging your coat on some utopian dream of elections that leave everyone happy and corruption free politics isn't a good start.
You are saying tory support in England has been down to 30 %. I don't think it has.
I would prefer a proportional and federal UK government but its never going to happen . I also want to remain in the EU.
The only way I am going to get a representative government is in an independent Scotland
It’s also how our political parties are funded, until you come up with a better solution we’re stuck with it.
Sounds like the sort of thing an independent country should be able to decide.
At least Labour have a relationship with Unions unlike the other major parties.
I'm not convinced thats necessarily good. Did the Unions not have a big part in putting Corbyn in charge and making them unelectable. They'll vigorously deny it but the Unions and Momentum are indirectly to blame for Brexit, a hard-Brexit, and Borris.
The only way I am going to get a representative government is in an independent Scotland
Why? If the social democratic voters of Scotland decide they will vote for a party that has a reasonable change of power in Westminster they would be able to achieve their aim. I believe there are more than one or your self defined "social democratic" parties that stand in 600 plus seats
For the social democrats of Scotland the decision is about voting for a Piper or a bag of wind at Westminster
The problem with that approach is that it always depends on voters in England making the same choice and we're not really seeing any sign of that happening.. But let's suppose the Tories manage to fluff the next UKGE.How long before the win another? Do you think Starmer might manage two terms? Three? And in the meantime he is in thrall to the very folk that voted for Brexit and then elected a Tory Government to see it through. That will always play against the Labour Party in Scotland.
You are saying tory support in England has been down to 30 %. I don’t think it has.
Well feel free to look at the figures I linked to from exactly the same site you pulled yours from. In fairness that was 1997 (30.7%) however they only broke the 40% share in the last 3 years. (I'm just going by the last 30 years since that's a reasonable timescale)
Did the Unions not have a big part in putting Corbyn in charge and making them unelectable. They’ll vigorously deny it but the Unions and Momentum are indirectly to blame for Brexit, a hard-Brexit, and Borris.
I'm one of those union voters. Yeah I did and based on what I knew then I'd have done it again. In fact I did after the PLP didn't accept it the first time around. Maybe if the rest of the party hadn't done its damnest to discredit him he may have been more electable. Who knows? But that's ignoring my point entirely, good union bashing angle though.
Sounds like the sort of thing an independent country should be able to decide.
Indeed, or any country for that matter. But you haven't come up with a solution. What's the alternative? Fund any party from a central pot? That couldn't possibly go badly wrong could it? I rather like the thought that the likes of the BNP have to beg for money from a limited audience.
The problem with that approach is that it always depends on voters in England making the same choice and we’re not really seeing any sign of that happening.. But let’s suppose the Tories manage to fluff the next UKGE.How long before the win another? Do you think Starmer might manage two terms? Three? And in the meantime he is in thrall to the very folk that voted for Brexit and then elected a Tory Government to see it through. That will always play against the Labour Party in Scotland.
I'm not quoting this for any other reason than to say I completely agree. Of course if other parties were willing to engage in coalitions then it could work but since they won't...
I can't decide whether big_n_daft is being a troll or not
Why? If the social democratic voters of Scotland decide they will vote for a party that has a reasonable change of power in Westminster they would be able to achieve their aim. I believe there are more than one or your self defined “social democratic” parties that stand in 600 plus seats
By your very statement above, the Party would have to be supported by English voters - therefore Scots will only get who the English vote for.
The problem with that approach is that it always depends on voters in England making the same choice and we’re not really seeing any sign of that happening..
Well if the "social democratic" vote in Scotland is split and a good chunk going to a geographically limited party that essentially can't form a coalition with a Unionist party then your predicament is self sustaining
But let’s suppose the Tories manage to fluff the next UKGE.How long before the win another? Do you think Starmer might manage two terms? Three?
The party in power changes regularly in healthy democracies
And in the meantime he is in thrall to the very folk that voted for Brexit and then elected a Tory Government to see it through. That will always play against the Labour Party in Scotland.
Starmer the remainer in thrall to brexitiers, if you say so.....
By your very statement above, the Party would have to be supported by English voters – therefore Scots will only get who the English vote for.
Imagine cross UK support for the party in office at Westminster, led by the best talent across the UK, no-one really caring whether the seat held by the PM is in the Rhonda, Essex, or Lanarkshire even one day Belfast.
Anyway back to the ABE discussion
I really don't get how people can genuinely think the SNP can only ever be a "bag of wind" at Westminster. They're the third biggest party and with FPTP, gerrymandering, and the quiet death of the Lib Dems, the likelihood of them being part of the next government is higher than it's ever been. And it was only just missed before. Because of how broken the system is, it's extremely hard for Labour to form a government by themselves- and pretty much impossible that they could do a Johnston and be a "landslide majority" government with 42%, or a Cameron and be a "majority" with 36.9%, or a May, and form a government with 42% +.9% while Labour with 40% get treated like small fry and any two of the top 4 parties outpolled the "winner". The electoral science just means that the Tories can form governments with less votes.
Course, as soon as that starts to arise we'll get the whole "Scotland: Enemies of the People" schtick again but though I'm not too impressed with Starmer so far, I don't think he'd fall for that hook line and sinker like Miliband did, when he ended up ruling out forming a government with himself. Use it as a barometer though- if Johnston or whoever replaces him is on the campaign trail accusing Nicola Sturgeon of stealing OUR money, it means they've realised that a Labour/SNP partnership is a likely outcome.
Right now, some people seem to want to criticise the SNP but give Labour a pass for the exact same thing- simply being in opposition. But they've arguably achieved more in that position than Labour have, due to working the system. Unless you think Joanna Cherry's legal action was "wind". And hell, even if the SNP vanished overnight and every vote went to Labour it wouldn't change the sheer ****ery of a system that gives you an unassailable, abuse-it-how-you-like majority with a minority of votes
I really don’t get how people can genuinely think the SNP can only ever be a “bag of wind” at Westminster. They’re the third biggest party and with FPTP, gerrymandering, and the quiet death of the Lib Dems, the likelihood of them being part of the next government is higher than it’s ever been.
Turkey's don't vote for Christmas, any government that relies on SNP votes will need to agree to another referendum, that referendum could lead to the SNP MP's no longer having a seat at Westminster, oops you are no longer in government
I have no doubt that the SNP have some talented people and some no so talented or down right unsavoury characters (although they seem to then tend to occupy a weird "not SNP but still in the seat space") but all parties whether you like them or not are the same to some degree or other. The issue comes from the questioner starting with the answer "independence" and then framing a question on the issue to get to that.
As for gerrymandering...
The number of people able to vote (the electorate) differs by constituency. The Office for National Statistics gives the average electorate across constituencies of about:
72,200 in England
67,200 in Scotland
68,300 in Northern Ireland
56,000 in Wales
That well known Tory heartland of Wales needs sorting out