[Closed] Is your constituency a safe seat?

Same as tiggs121. Michael Moore lib dem since steel got is in the 60s. Hope it goes if only to wipe the smug smile off moores face. Also stel really not open to allowing people to ride a road on his estate for this reason alone I'd vote elsewhere, I am, but its not.

Safe as houses here in affluent North Yorks. Not seen the Tory incumbent doing the rounds yet or even a leaflet drop, perhaps he feels he doesn't need to.

Labour have been round. Perhaps the candidate thinks that if he puts on a good show and reduces the majority enough, he'll get a better seat next time around.

Mine has always been Labour and always had the same MP.
Bit of a pub quiz question assuming Tessa Jowell wins again which i wouldn't bet against.
Dulwich and West Norwood, created in 1997

New Forest East, [url= http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_l_q.html#NewForestEast ]96% Tory certainty.[/url]

Although he won't be getting my vote as he wants to bring in NEW LAWS (not just a charter) to [url= http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/controversial-new-forest-cycling-charter-voted-npa-members-153973 ]restrict cycle events.[/url]

Tosser

+1 NorthernMatt. People round here are still fighting the miners' strike in their heads 🙄

Continually Labour apart from a 3 year period when a member of the Cadbury family seemed to shake things up a bit as a Tory.

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Our constituency was a new one at the last election.
It's a rural area in Hampshire...
Yep, Conservative all the way.
To be fair, our MP has been very visible and genuinely seems to help the local area.

Glasgow East with a Labour Majority of 11800. Should be safe as houses fir wee Magrit Curran, and yet...

There is 50/50 chance it will fall to SNP, if Labour can't hold on to a seat in the east end of Glasgow they are truly ****ed, it would be an illustration of how far they have fallen in Scotland

I live in the only Tory seat in Scotland, and the vultures are circling.

I was handed a flyer on the high street on saturday by SNP, Scottish Labour, Lib Dems and Greens at the weekend. In other words, everyone except the Tories.

They are clearly feeling confident.

that calculator thing reckons the Tories will snatch my (home) seat back from the kippers. Big support for kippers though. Lib Dem could be in lost deposit territory if it becomes Blue/Red/Purple fight.

I'm in Amber Valley - which is on a knife-edge between Labour and Conservative.

It's normally Labour, but Conservatives won last time with a majority of a few hundred, so it's one they need to keep to hold on to power.

Other parties are way behind.

Ours is predicted to go from Lib to SNP - Edinburgh West

There is 50/50 chance it will fall to SNP, if Labour can't hold on to a seat in the east end of Glasgow they are truly ****, it would be an illustration of how far they have fallen in Scotland

It could create a unprecedented electoral situation. A labour party as badly kicked as it looks like it will be in Scotland might not be able to make a coalition stick with the SNP so a Tory/SNP alliance I would suggest could well form the next government. That creates three rather interesting issues - 1. A Scottish populous with a loathing of the tories being responsible for another tory led coalition, 2. Another referendum on Scottish independence as the price for SNP allegiance and 3. SNP MPs as part of a governing coalition being required to vote en masse to force through English only legislation.

so a Tory/SNP alliance I would suggest could well form the next government.

That would be political suicide so will never happen.

Yes covert, very high on the irony. A lot of the informal campaigning during the referendum was Vote Yes To Get Rid of the Tory Fascists.

Dirty business this politicks.

Right, my constituency has 94% Conservative. What is the point of me turning up and casting my vote on polling day?

Castle Point. So right wing it makes the Tories seem almost Socialist.
One of UKIPs main targets at the election. My vote has been irrelevant since the 1997 Blair blip when labour won the seat.

The most spiteful thing I can do is vote UKIP to ensure a triumphant entry into the commons for Nige Farage and his cronies instead of the half-witted MP we have currently.

I hope you can tell I'm not happy ....

ollybus - Member

Right, my constituency has 94% Conservative. What is the point of me turning up and casting my vote on polling day?

is there a party you sort of like in principle, who might just lose their deposit?

vote for them.

it's about 3million times better than not bothering.

Louth and Horncastle seat here, current MP was father of the house, but he is now retired, so a new candidate and pretty much like Harrogate a pig in a blue hat would be voted in, be interesting to see the confusion when they can't spot the name of the man they all seem to have voted for the past fifty years. Still undecided so far the only party who has bothered to stuff any literature through my door has been UKIP.

So a Tory/SNP alliance I would suggest could well form the next government.

I cant imagine any world in which that would actually happen

convert - Member

a Tory/SNP alliance I would suggest could well form the next government.

I think you probably ought to cut down on the psychoactives tbh

Twickenham, Vince C had a 12,000 majority and 54% of the vote, Tory at 34% and Labour at just 5%, so I guess it will stay Lib Dem.

Frankly, I don't want any of the useless twunts.

A 65% chance of a win for the Conservatives here, the Lid Dem's are not really bothering too hard and Labour concentrate on certain areas rather than the whole area so more like a 95% chance.
The next constituency over is showing a swing from Lib Dem to Tory with a Tory chance of winning 74% with a 10% shift in votes, the site doesn't reflect what the local surveys are showing, it's going to be close, very close.

Worthing West and Sir Peter Bottomley in a very safe conservative seat here...51%of the vote last time and a mjority of 11729. I don't expect to see very much change from that this year. The only slight excitement here is that there may be a fight for third place in the polls between UKIP and Labour.

Doncaster Central. John Prescott installed his bit on the side many years ago and no sign of her going away, though she has switched parties in other ways.

Same as ahwiles, Sheffield Hallam, Nick's constituency.

The line here has always been that Labour couldn't win so a vote for them meant the Cons were more likely to get in. Hence I and many others usually voted for Nick. And he's been OK.

Things change though. There are a lot of very disappointed students here and the Ashcroft polls reflect that.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/?s=hallam

I would like to think Bristol North West is a safe seat for Charlotte Leslie (Conservative) She seems pretty good and has benefited the area IMHO. I had a complaint about out local Job Centre ( Or whatever they are called now) Dropped her an email, in an hour and a half I had a call back from the Job Centre with an apology and asked for an appointment to visit me. Quite proactive I thought.

Just back from Friends of the Earth election hustings. Our Conservative candidate thinks natural gas isn't a fossil fuel. I despair.

I am in a Tory safe seat, so safe that Michael Gove is standing again. In his 10 years as MP for the area I think his only involvement in local issues has been having his photo taken at key points around the area. Hopefully he will have a reduced majority this time.