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Macclesfield. Tory since 1918 🙁
After the 38degrees 'quiz' to see which party your aligned with it said that Macc was >99% likely to be Conservative this time!
Still voting Green
We've had Charles Kennedy forever, but I don't think for much longer - not sure how close it is though?
Swing seat from Lab to tory that had always indicated the winners [ since the 60's IIRC]
Last time Labour held and he is the Deputy Speaker
Touch and go but he will probably hold but probably more due to personal appeal and UKIP taking some Tory votes
He is OK and he is at least a local.
It was a new constiuency in 2010. Tories took it with 52% of the vote. I wasn't one of them. Before that the old constituency had been tory since at least 1931.
Certainly, if the lack of any canvassing or even leaflets from some parties in the past few elections in this area in its previous constituency, it is considered a safe seat.
Dumfries and Galloway here. There was a change in boundaries and names a few years ago, recently it's been held by Labour, but previously we've had the Tories and the SNP. Before 97 it was a Tory seat pretty consistently. This year the polling suggests labour vote has collapsed with little confidence in Russel Brown the local MP so it'll be a close thing with the SNP and the Tories with a very strong 'No' feeling down in this neck of the woods.
I had a letter from Mr Cameron today. We are one the top 26 targets to ensure an overall majority. Always very tight between Tory and Lib Dem.
Why haven't I had a letter from Dave? I feel cheated!. Does he not love me? I just watched a party political broadcast where he was stood on the sideline of a Saturday football game, cheering on his kid. Just like I do. Except it wasn't raining. And it was in slow motion, soft focus. And there didn't appear to be a massive meathead from wythenshawe swearing at the ref. but he's clearly a man of the people. I bet he does that every week. I want a letter from Dave 🙁
He must think he can turn me.
Keighley, which is marginal at 2,900, I predict the conservatives will hold it though.
Arragit, or as the local toffs say, 'Harrogate'
Needn't say any more except I won't be voting for Andrew ****in Jones.
Same Labour MP here since the 80's, hopefully it won't end up being ukip
My London place is in Ilford North - Tory for the last couple but Labour for the two before that.
Edinburgh place is in Edinburgh South West - Labour for the last 4 elections and Tory before that, but probably SNP this time.
The Ginger Rodent. Not a chance.
The New Statesman are now predicting the SNP will end up with at least 50 of the 59 seats. Some calculators have it as high as 55. Personally I think they are all talking shit and it'll only be 45 🙂
Newcastle, fairly safe to say that labour will win it. My local MP is actually pretty good from what I know of he, shame about the rest of them.
Darlington should be a pretty safe Labour seat. Was briefly Tory in the late 80s and early 90s, but there've been boundary changes since then that should make is safer.
Elmet-Rothwell in Leeds, could go either way Tory/labour.
I know it's pointless but I like the lib-dem MP round here so he might get my vote again.
I said I might spoil my ballot paper on here the other week, but I could never do that. I'd have to vote properly, just not for tory, labour or ukip!
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 13000 majority on a 38000 turnout . Is Charlie Kennedy safe no. Electoral calculus has it down as a Nat win. I think it is very close.
@scotroutes - we know about opinion polls in Scotland, it's close it close .. err not really 😉
Bury south, mp is the shadow NI secretary (Ivan Lewis) so rather safe I think
I'm annoyed that we are the only ward with a bloody tory councillor! Going to vote tactical red to try and get them out
marginal seat where we are now Brentford & Iselworth, 2010 was a con majority, of <2000
but we move in a weeks time to Milton keyens South, where its a slightly larger Tory majority, but I did notice that the local ukip candidate has a fully decked out purple and yellow sports car, im not sure what that means, although the MK North kipper candidate just left to take a job oversees 🙄
I'm annoyed that we are the only ward with a bloody tory councillor! Going to vote tactical red to try and get them out
Why? Are they bad at their job or something? You do realise local politics has absolutely no bearing on a national level right?
(I admit I voted for the Tory before he and his wife showed their true colours during the recent debate on the legalisation of same sex marriage)
Sunderland which has been Labour since 1964 and always wants to be the first to tell the country the bloody inevitable. A lot of people round here still think that if they vote anything other than Labour that Thatcher will get into power.
Romsey & Southampton North
That electoral calculus site has our tory as a shoo-in.
I'm not so sure - we were Lib Dem before that, and UKIP has quite a few posters up in gardens so I think the tories might lose out.
I was brought up in Stockton North. At the time it was one of the safest labour seats around so being closeish still feels like quite a novelty for me, though I've lived in several marginals since leaving the NE.
Labour since 1983, currently a nasty piece of work who likes exchanging funny handshakes with the local flute band. Safe? Not this time around it's not.
Malky Bruce lib dem retiring Sandy Salmond now favourite to take it.
Molebridge deepest Surrey here and STW can guess - ultra safe conservative.
Has been so for as long as I can be bothered to look in Wiki.
That electoral calculus site is proper Grade A bumflaps.
Dumfries and Clydesdale going SNP? Don't make me laugh.
Mole Valley in Surrey, where I am, is obviously a typical Tory area, only existed since 1983 but always blue.
[quote=squirrelking ]That electoral calculus site is proper Grade A bumflaps.
Dumfries and Clydesdale going SNP? Don't make me laugh.
Ashcrofts constituency polling looks like this...
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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/dumfries-galloway/
Sample size? Areas taken?
I'll beleive it when I see it, we were dead cert for a yes vote as well, look how that turned out. That's dyed in the wool tory country down there and I doubt much is going to change in that respect.
The workings are completely bonkers!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
I agree. Sounds ludicrous. However, at least it's more focussed than taking a national poll and extrapolating from there.
(Sample size 1,001)
Mid Sussex - Tory since it's inception in 1974.
The odious Nicholas 'the most sexist MP, bankrolled by Aegis, what speed limit?' Soames presiding since 1997.
I'll beleive it when I see it, we were dead cert for a yes vote as well, look how that turned out.
No poll ever had a dead cert yes vote (apart from a secret SNP poll), it was marginal at best.
Dumfries and Galloway has been labour for the last 2 years. Before the boundaries changed it was mostly Tory but did vote SNP once. Now that there's a lot more of Dumfries included it favours (or used to) Labour a bit more on the Galloway side and the Tories a little more on the Dumfriesshire side.
Given the collapsing Labour vote and SNP win is not unfeasible at all in Galloway, but given the size of the collapse needed in Dumfriesshire it's a lot harder to imagine.
Fife North East, which has been Sir Menzies Campbell since before the reformation (1987 for you non-history buffs) and as such was pretty much nailed on for the Lib Dems. He's retiring this year though. That electoral calculus site has SNP whitewash with 40-odd % of the vote.
I am disappoint.
A (reasonably) safe Labour seat plus advertising spending makes for some hilarious Facebook comments on the Tory candidate's page: search for Peter Cuthbertson for Darlington 🙂
The Tory candidate for neighbouring (incredibly safe) Sedgefield seat doesn't even seem to have bothered getting anyone to proof read his leaflet, and he's not so good at the writing.
Same as tiggs121. Michael Moore lib dem since steel got is in the 60s. Hope it goes if only to wipe the smug smile off moores face. Also stel really not open to allowing people to ride a road on his estate for this reason alone I'd vote elsewhere, I am, but its not.
Safe as houses here in affluent North Yorks. Not seen the Tory incumbent doing the rounds yet or even a leaflet drop, perhaps he feels he doesn't need to.
Labour have been round. Perhaps the candidate thinks that if he puts on a good show and reduces the majority enough, he'll get a better seat next time around.
Mine has always been Labour and always had the same MP.
Bit of a pub quiz question assuming Tessa Jowell wins again which i wouldn't bet against.
Dulwich and West Norwood, created in 1997
New Forest East, [url= http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_l_q.html#NewForestEast ]96% Tory certainty.[/url]
Although he won't be getting my vote as he wants to bring in NEW LAWS (not just a charter) to [url= http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/controversial-new-forest-cycling-charter-voted-npa-members-153973 ]restrict cycle events.[/url]
Tosser
+1 NorthernMatt. People round here are still fighting the miners' strike in their heads 🙄
Continually Labour apart from a 3 year period when a member of the Cadbury family seemed to shake things up a bit as a Tory.
In retrospect, it was unlikely he'd win a second term.
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Our constituency was a new one at the last election.
It's a rural area in Hampshire...
Yep, Conservative all the way.
To be fair, our MP has been very visible and genuinely seems to help the local area.
Glasgow East with a Labour Majority of 11800. Should be safe as houses fir wee Magrit Curran, and yet...
There is 50/50 chance it will fall to SNP, if Labour can't hold on to a seat in the east end of Glasgow they are truly ****ed, it would be an illustration of how far they have fallen in Scotland
I live in the only Tory seat in Scotland, and the vultures are circling.
I was handed a flyer on the high street on saturday by SNP, Scottish Labour, Lib Dems and Greens at the weekend. In other words, everyone except the Tories.
They are clearly feeling confident.
that calculator thing reckons the Tories will snatch my (home) seat back from the kippers. Big support for kippers though. Lib Dem could be in lost deposit territory if it becomes Blue/Red/Purple fight.