MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
Last time my constituency (Edinburgh East) wasn't held by Labour was 1935!
The last time Hexham wasn't conservative was 1923!
Conservative seat for years and probably doubly so now that Boris is running. 🙁
Tory here, but Badnewz is shoring up the UKIP vote.
Cue abuse.
Chichester. They could pin a blue rosette on a donkey and it would get elected here.
Badnewz is self-abusing by voting kipper.
I'm in the safest Tory seat in the country (Richmond North Yorkshire).
Most folks in the area would vote for a pig in a blue hat.
I played no part in contributing to their success here.
Angus Robertson, SNP, Moray. A stick on!
Yep, Orpington - safe Tory seat - Boris Johnson's little brother is our MP!
I am in a Labour strong hold in GeordieLand.
They just hate the Southerners to the core ... bloody Southerner Tories boys this and that; effing this and that Tories. 😆
I told them I was voting UKIP to my socialist and communist friends ... the look of disgust I got cheer me up no end. They then started broadcasting to everyone in the office. 😆 Bloody funny that. One of my stealth Tories die hard supporter (he is from London) just kept his mouth shut in fear of getting the sticks. My justification is simple ... I am a Johnny foreigner I like to stir things up. What? Speak English please (said I to them)... 😆
Moray - last time it was anything other than SNP was 1983 according to Wikipedia (some boundary changes as well).
Horsham - Conservative since 1876! Makes it longer standing than Richmond, which changed in 1906 - what makes it 'safe'? Duration, or size of majority?
No. Tory / LibDem two horse race. About 40ish% of the vote each.
The incumbent Tory MP, if lined up along side Tim Nice But Dim, would be mistaken for the comedy character.
Mine was a tory seat for a couple of generations til Ri****d miraculously managed to turn it labour (it looked like we'd be the only Tory seat in Scotland til he sold out Rosyth for a handful of southern votes). And then it was Darling's seat, and genuinely, the best the halfwit Tory candidate could come up with was "He's not been representing you, he's always in Westminster, running the country! I'm a halfwit, vote for me, there's nae danger I'll be in the cabinet"
But Ashcroft polling predicts a crazy reversal, we were 40% labour, 24% tory, 18% lib dem, 12% SNP. Ashcroft has it 40% SNP, Labour 27, Tories 19, Lib dem 4%. That's an epic 4-way tanning if it proves true.
Tory here in Wessex, and probably for ever. The next-door Lib may change, though.
Nope, changed from Labour to tory in 2010.
Truth is, the tory bloke has done some good work around here, more than the labour bloke ever did despite only having been in for half the time.
Currently Tory, but all predictions are for it to return to Labour - there was particular disgust with the previous Labour MP last time that meant that she was specifically targeted to get her out without thoughts of any consequences.
both the constituency where I was last resident, and "home" home, were new constituencies last time around.
labour won by 200 votes the previous time (before boundary change), then tory won last time but then defected to the purple bunch.
I guess that's marginal.
In Calder Valley although [url= http://www.voterpower.org.uk/ ]Voter Power[/url] would have you believe it's a safe Tory seat, previous last 3 MP were Labour.
Very safe Tory seat here in Eddisbury, the only threat to them is Winsford and it isn't big enough to out do the local cheshire set who would vote for their polo ponies if they could....
No, we're Tory at the moment and were Labour in 2010 and have been both and Lib-Dem before then. I'm expecting a lot of door knocking over the coming weeks. Yay.
Safe labour here in Stockport - Ann Coffey's in with the bricks.
No. Eastleigh won in 2010 by Lib Dem Chris Hunhe (he of the speeding fine) last time with the Conservatives in second place. Up for grabs this time around I'd say. UKIP/Labour too far back to make much difference.
According to Wikipedia I live in the safest Labour seat in the country. Makerfield, Wigan.
Been Labour since the Parliamentary Party was formed in 1906 - again from Wikipedia.
Yup safe Tory seat here in Hertford & Stortford, usually over 50% vote conservative, fell to mid-40's during the height of New Labour. Never had a canvasser, barely get any literature.
yourguitarhero - Member
Last time my constituency (Edinburgh East) wasn't held by Labour was 1935!
[url] http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Edinburgh%20East [/url]
Safe as houses. 🙂
Oh and Northwind, the boundary changes a few years back that turned Edinburgh Pentlands into Edinburgh South-West added some more central bits of Edinburgh into the constituency, which may partly explain why the Conservative influence in it dropped.
The last time the Conservatives didn't represent the area I live in was in 1871 when the Liberals won a by-election.
The Cotswolds. Guess...
Edit: blimey, that's pretty definitive:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_c_e.html#Cotswolds,The
My constituency (and the one it was based on prior to the boarders being reformed in 1974) has been in conservative hands since 1892 and was last won with a majority of 13467 and 56% of the vote. The lib dems were the only other party to make it into double figures. It's going to be a massive walkover.
So I'm voting Green - the candidate is chairman of the local kayak club and a keen mountain biker which seems just as good a reason as any to vote for him!
Ultra-safe tory seat here, Pob is the MP.
We're in what was always a nailed on Labour seat. But then along came the expenses scandal and our MP [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12127327 ]David Chayter[/url] was jailed for his dodgy accounting. So it went Tory at the subsequent by-election. It goes without saying that most people have been regretting that protest vote ever since, as they've watched their local MP gleefully rubber stamping increasingly huge budget cuts to the local council.
Judging by the absolute blitz we've had already from them, the Labour Party are hell bent on getting the seat back. Also judging from the complete silence from the Tories, they've already given it up as a lost cause.
East Dunbartonshire here - currently Lib Dem, formerly Labour, even been Tory (pre-boundary changes) in the not-so-distant past, which is quite something for the edge of Glasgow.
Sitting MP is Jo Swinson, will be very interesting to see what happens, IMO her voting tendencies have changed since I've lived here, in line with her rise within her party.
I won't be surprised to see the SNP take the seat, despite them finishing behind the Tories last time round. The next few weeks could see more canvassing than we usually see.
hmmmm Dundee West, created n the 1950's, only ever returned Labour MPs and currently Labour have a 7000+ majority. So I'll say no, SNP gain.
Looks like my vote may actually matter - ~1% predicted between Con / Lab.
Nicky Morgan - Loughborough
Mine does and has shifted between blue and yellow but I reckon that Liam probably feels fairly safe.
Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg's seat.
he had an enormous win last time, but it seems the new Labour guy isn't far off...
Teh Labour Canvassers were round Last week, and for some reason i didn't just ignore them. During our 'chat' (which was more of a rant) i somehow nearly talked myself into voting tory.
don't worry, i won't.
[i]Judging by the absolute blitz we've had already from them, the Labour Party are hell bent on getting the seat back. Also judging from the complete silence from the Tories, they've already given it up as a lost cause. [/i]
We've heard nothing from the Tories because, given that since 1918(!) they've never lost the seat, they don't really have to try too hard.
Our Labour candidate for the very tweedy, very rural and very, well, white, constituency of The Cotswolds is a chap called Manjinder Singh Kang, which I guess indicates that Labour can't be arsed tryng too hard either.
I bloody hope not!! But - a 5600 majority he probably is!
Michael Moore - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
He's the one on the left....the only time he's on the left!!
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tiggs121 - MemberI bloody hope not!! But - a 5600 majority he probably is!
Electoral calculus has you as 57% chance of SNP, 33% Tory, 90% chance of Michael Moore getting thrown in the river in a sack.
Doesn't seem like there's such a thing as a safe seat in Scotland, unless you're SNP
Continually Labour apart from a 3 year period when a member of the Cadbury family seemed to shake things up a bit as a Tory.
Should be close here, political allegiance aside we're hoping to put an end to Rees-Mogg's political career after a single term. I cringe whenever the idiot opens his mouth as all of his views appear to come from 1932.
Particular things that come to mind were his recent vocal opposition to three-parent-babies (and it seems science in general), and defending his need to work at his hedge fund 40 hours a month when he's supposed to be working for the public good...
The Labour Party love Rees Mogg though, as every time He opens his mouth, their percentage of the vote goes up a couple of points
NorthwindElectoral calculus has you as 57% chance of SNP, 33% Tory, 90% chance of Michael Moore getting thrown in the river in a sack.
Doesn't seem like there's such a thing as a safe seat in Scotland, unless you're SNP
The Electoral calculus hasn't taken account of the "Aye bin" syndrome that has plagued this region for time immemorial!
New-ish constituency but ultra safe seat for the incumbent. Next door seat (starts 400m away from my house) changes most elections though, the bookies are saying it will change colour again this time round.
Our constituency is a bit of a swinger: was formed in 1983 by putting together two constituencies, one which was generally Labour and one which had a split marginally in favour of Conservative.
Since its creation, it's had one Conservative MP and then has been Labour ever since. The majority did get up to 17,000, but has since shrunk. Not a marginal though, and I;d be surprised if it changed hands.
Unlike the last constituency I lived in, which was down to 667 votes in the 2005 election. Its marginal status made me change my mind in the queue outside the polling station in the 2010 election as we stood in the rain debating the potential for coalition. Little did everyone know....
I live in (apparently) ultra-safe Easington (Labour). Meh. I'll still be voting Green.
Macclesfield. Tory since 1918 🙁
After the 38degrees 'quiz' to see which party your aligned with it said that Macc was >99% likely to be Conservative this time!
Still voting Green
We've had Charles Kennedy forever, but I don't think for much longer - not sure how close it is though?
Swing seat from Lab to tory that had always indicated the winners [ since the 60's IIRC]
Last time Labour held and he is the Deputy Speaker
Touch and go but he will probably hold but probably more due to personal appeal and UKIP taking some Tory votes
He is OK and he is at least a local.
It was a new constiuency in 2010. Tories took it with 52% of the vote. I wasn't one of them. Before that the old constituency had been tory since at least 1931.
Certainly, if the lack of any canvassing or even leaflets from some parties in the past few elections in this area in its previous constituency, it is considered a safe seat.
Dumfries and Galloway here. There was a change in boundaries and names a few years ago, recently it's been held by Labour, but previously we've had the Tories and the SNP. Before 97 it was a Tory seat pretty consistently. This year the polling suggests labour vote has collapsed with little confidence in Russel Brown the local MP so it'll be a close thing with the SNP and the Tories with a very strong 'No' feeling down in this neck of the woods.
I had a letter from Mr Cameron today. We are one the top 26 targets to ensure an overall majority. Always very tight between Tory and Lib Dem.
Why haven't I had a letter from Dave? I feel cheated!. Does he not love me? I just watched a party political broadcast where he was stood on the sideline of a Saturday football game, cheering on his kid. Just like I do. Except it wasn't raining. And it was in slow motion, soft focus. And there didn't appear to be a massive meathead from wythenshawe swearing at the ref. but he's clearly a man of the people. I bet he does that every week. I want a letter from Dave 🙁
He must think he can turn me.
Keighley, which is marginal at 2,900, I predict the conservatives will hold it though.
Arragit, or as the local toffs say, 'Harrogate'
Needn't say any more except I won't be voting for Andrew ****in Jones.
Same Labour MP here since the 80's, hopefully it won't end up being ukip
My London place is in Ilford North - Tory for the last couple but Labour for the two before that.
Edinburgh place is in Edinburgh South West - Labour for the last 4 elections and Tory before that, but probably SNP this time.
The Ginger Rodent. Not a chance.
The New Statesman are now predicting the SNP will end up with at least 50 of the 59 seats. Some calculators have it as high as 55. Personally I think they are all talking shit and it'll only be 45 🙂
Newcastle, fairly safe to say that labour will win it. My local MP is actually pretty good from what I know of he, shame about the rest of them.
Darlington should be a pretty safe Labour seat. Was briefly Tory in the late 80s and early 90s, but there've been boundary changes since then that should make is safer.
Elmet-Rothwell in Leeds, could go either way Tory/labour.
I know it's pointless but I like the lib-dem MP round here so he might get my vote again.
I said I might spoil my ballot paper on here the other week, but I could never do that. I'd have to vote properly, just not for tory, labour or ukip!
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 13000 majority on a 38000 turnout . Is Charlie Kennedy safe no. Electoral calculus has it down as a Nat win. I think it is very close.
@scotroutes - we know about opinion polls in Scotland, it's close it close .. err not really 😉
Bury south, mp is the shadow NI secretary (Ivan Lewis) so rather safe I think
I'm annoyed that we are the only ward with a bloody tory councillor! Going to vote tactical red to try and get them out
marginal seat where we are now Brentford & Iselworth, 2010 was a con majority, of <2000
but we move in a weeks time to Milton keyens South, where its a slightly larger Tory majority, but I did notice that the local ukip candidate has a fully decked out purple and yellow sports car, im not sure what that means, although the MK North kipper candidate just left to take a job oversees 🙄
I'm annoyed that we are the only ward with a bloody tory councillor! Going to vote tactical red to try and get them out
Why? Are they bad at their job or something? You do realise local politics has absolutely no bearing on a national level right?
(I admit I voted for the Tory before he and his wife showed their true colours during the recent debate on the legalisation of same sex marriage)
Sunderland which has been Labour since 1964 and always wants to be the first to tell the country the bloody inevitable. A lot of people round here still think that if they vote anything other than Labour that Thatcher will get into power.
Romsey & Southampton North
That electoral calculus site has our tory as a shoo-in.
I'm not so sure - we were Lib Dem before that, and UKIP has quite a few posters up in gardens so I think the tories might lose out.
I was brought up in Stockton North. At the time it was one of the safest labour seats around so being closeish still feels like quite a novelty for me, though I've lived in several marginals since leaving the NE.
Labour since 1983, currently a nasty piece of work who likes exchanging funny handshakes with the local flute band. Safe? Not this time around it's not.
Malky Bruce lib dem retiring Sandy Salmond now favourite to take it.
Molebridge deepest Surrey here and STW can guess - ultra safe conservative.
Has been so for as long as I can be bothered to look in Wiki.
That electoral calculus site is proper Grade A bumflaps.
Dumfries and Clydesdale going SNP? Don't make me laugh.
Mole Valley in Surrey, where I am, is obviously a typical Tory area, only existed since 1983 but always blue.
[quote=squirrelking ]That electoral calculus site is proper Grade A bumflaps.
Dumfries and Clydesdale going SNP? Don't make me laugh.
Ashcrofts constituency polling looks like this...
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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/dumfries-galloway/
Sample size? Areas taken?
I'll beleive it when I see it, we were dead cert for a yes vote as well, look how that turned out. That's dyed in the wool tory country down there and I doubt much is going to change in that respect.
The workings are completely bonkers!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
I agree. Sounds ludicrous. However, at least it's more focussed than taking a national poll and extrapolating from there.
(Sample size 1,001)
Mid Sussex - Tory since it's inception in 1974.
The odious Nicholas 'the most sexist MP, bankrolled by Aegis, what speed limit?' Soames presiding since 1997.
I'll beleive it when I see it, we were dead cert for a yes vote as well, look how that turned out.
No poll ever had a dead cert yes vote (apart from a secret SNP poll), it was marginal at best.
Dumfries and Galloway has been labour for the last 2 years. Before the boundaries changed it was mostly Tory but did vote SNP once. Now that there's a lot more of Dumfries included it favours (or used to) Labour a bit more on the Galloway side and the Tories a little more on the Dumfriesshire side.
Given the collapsing Labour vote and SNP win is not unfeasible at all in Galloway, but given the size of the collapse needed in Dumfriesshire it's a lot harder to imagine.
Fife North East, which has been Sir Menzies Campbell since before the reformation (1987 for you non-history buffs) and as such was pretty much nailed on for the Lib Dems. He's retiring this year though. That electoral calculus site has SNP whitewash with 40-odd % of the vote.
I am disappoint.
A (reasonably) safe Labour seat plus advertising spending makes for some hilarious Facebook comments on the Tory candidate's page: search for Peter Cuthbertson for Darlington 🙂
The Tory candidate for neighbouring (incredibly safe) Sedgefield seat doesn't even seem to have bothered getting anyone to proof read his leaflet, and he's not so good at the writing.