[Closed] Is the reccession over, for you

Well my employers have just embarked on a massive promotions and recruitment spree so I'm hoping they know something I don't!

You don't need a recession for firms to go bust.

B&Q consolidating could be seen as a good sign. People no longer prepared to 'do it themselves' but get a tradesman in instead as they have more money to spend?

another £7M cut in budget from central gov, so its continuing full steam ahead. 😐

Touching wood, last year was our best ever and so far this year is topping that.
Rent has gone up so that will swallow any extra profit.

I think the parente company of B&Q are opening screwfix branches in There place

We're having huge budget cuts at work. Can't go into details but the next parliament is going to be tough time to work for the public sector.

Depends what industry your in I guess and where you are.

I think the parente company of B&Q are opening screwfix branches in There place

Aaah - didn't know Screwfix were owned by the same company. Funnily enough a Screwfix has just opened down the road from B&Q in Alfreton.

Nope, I'm in the same job earning much less.

Can't go into details but the next parliament is going to be tough time to work for the public sector.

A bit like the last forever

Our Principal told us that we're going to look back on this year as The Good Old Days in a few years time :/

We don't do any business in the UK, mainly ME, Africa and US, so not that affected by UK economics. Locally Cambridge is still firing on all cylinders, so not really any signs of recession here.

Education is ****ed imo.

No

Not really - nearly killed my little business (along with an unfortunate landlord) and I am still working to pay off debts created by that episode so the effects of the recession (having no spare cash) will last at least another four years.

Turnover and profits up in work and we're expanding our workforce, or at least able to offer full-time contracts for our part-time guys who want them.

Personally I was given a 5k pay rise today and been offered 2 other jobs since Xmas without asking, both with better than the crash salaries - but the 'packages' aren't as good, less placed offering pensions and stuff like that - one place said people didn't care as much about 'perks' these days, they're after cash because people aren't confident of a "job for life".

There will always be big retailers like B&Q expanding and contracting - DIY places are notoriously poorly run, I don't know why, but they always have been - plus they've got the likes of IKEA muscling into thier Kitchen and Bathroom sales and the supermarkets into the smaller stuff like paint and brushes.

As for the Public Sector, were under a Tory government, boom or bust public services will always contract under the Tories and expand under Labour - it's almost a zen-like balance - saying that we grabbed a 70k public sector job last week and expecting another next month. It's for Drugs and Alcohol services though, our Arts and Media public sector clients ain't got pot to piss in nor window to throw it out.

Education is **** imo.

It does seem to have avoided it so far, but over next few years it is going to get it in the neck. 😕

£22Bn in efficiency savings, and employed on a zero hour contract so nope it's still cracking on at a fair old clip.

Was there a recession?

Or did the media flood us with negative stories that made us think there was a recession.

The rich got richer....the super rich that control the media as part of thier huge corporations With fingers in all the pies.

Nope

More responsibilty and falling pay since 2008.

Some self inflicted hardship as I left full time post due to combination of cuts and terrible management. Still worth it though. Tax bill of £26! Yay. look at me contributing.

Have considered heading for the corporate events world in the middle east even though the content would bore me.

Education on its knees here. £11m needs saved over three years. Given buildings are either new or well past it, infrastructure spend will be limited. Staffing being cut, I may well be in Morrison's stacking shelves come august. We're nearly out of stationery for the year. Pensions are much reduced compared to before, still better than many, contributions climbing. Wages stagnent.

So no long way from over for me or my police Scotland OH.

I feel about 70 pence a week better off compared to last year. Apparently this is cause for celebration according to the chancellor earlier today. 😕

[edit] of course as a public servants with a gold plated pensions, our household is actually about £200 a month worse off in real terms since the last general election. And only 2 years closer to retirement than we were 5 years ago, of course.
That's before i get on to the huge disparity between the idea that the country is spending more in helath and the actual money spent on frontline delivery of care, as well as the countless tragic stories of hardship amongst the most vulnerable and least likely to vote members of society that i encounter in my practice.
So no, not really.

My actual job is relatively recession proof, we've lost some funding but not terribly so and bad career prospects tend to push people into higher education anyway. Sub-inflation wage "rises" and changes in benefits but nothing really lifechanging for me. But it's affecting our graduates and applicants in about a hundred different ways, none of them good, I really feel for them. Far from over.

I'm one of those who have lost their jobs in oil & gas recently, not sure if the problems that industry is facing count as part of a recession, but the onshore development area I used to work in seems to be quiet still too, with companies scrabbling for work and making cuts still. Friends in public sector facing terrible budget cuts too. All seems a bit odd to me.

Sorry but not really stopped for a year and the New Years resolution of having more time off has gone out the window, still some tight budgets but most of my clients are growing or looking to promote new products.
I did know somebody who was made redundant last week in a small agency but that could be because they have a small client pool.
Having seen a few downturns/crashes If there is a recession looming I'm usually the first to get hit and then the first to get busy when it ends.

Well I'm worse off than I was 4 years ago so no

Working in public sector with below inflation wage increases, plus paying extra into pension to get less means definitely not feeling better off personally. The cuts to higher education are starting to show now, cracks were papered over, but i wouldn't be surprised if more universities lay off more workers than they have been doing (without much attention) over the next year or so.

Whatever your personal circumstances and how you feel the recession is definitely over.

It's not about whether individuals are in a good place or not.

That's why we still had a recession even when Britain's top company bosses saw their pay rocket.

[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/what-recession-top-bosses-pay-rockets-8057359.html ]Executive pay rises by 8.5% to average of £3m – as everyone else's goes down[/url]

[i][b]"The pay of Britain's top company bosses has soared still higher, rising by more than five times that of ordinary workers, who have seen a decline in wages in real terms".[/b][/i]

Some way yet so beware of [s]snake oil salesman[/s] politicians offering false hope.

Only scant progress in dealing with issue that caused slowdown

Had a tough few years, but much more optimistic about the business than I've been for quite a while. Getting out of the old shop with the a***hole landlord and saving £5k per year on rent didn't hurt either.

Nope. Recession is not over yet for me since I started work ... 🙄

Regardless of the economy situation if you have ZMs in charged of your life/work where you work, recession can never be over. For example, a slight dip in the economy would see them ring fencing their unicorns no end. They will then put you up as the disposable. 😡

For example, a slight dip in the economy would see them ring fencing their unicorns no end. They will then put you up as the disposable.

Good point - not a lot of people will have thought of that.

Same area as Project/Sad Bloke

Never been busier and order books full for the next 18 months which has never been known! Exports are up 75% for us and we are recruiting big time.

Despite being American owned we have had a pay rise every year above inflation so I feel pretty lucky, most of my suppliers are struggling to meet demand as those still left trading are swamped or short staffed!

or my police Scotland OH.

It's something of a paradox that I can't for the life of me imagine how this organisation could be made any worse, while at the same time having no doubt whatsoever that it will be.

Arms length public sector here, checked my wageslip on the system out of curiosity. Earnin £900 pa more than I was 5 years ago. It definitely feels harder now.

If the recession is over, how come we're still at rock-bottom interest rates and facing falling prices after years of billions of £ being thrown into the economy by QE? Hardly the sign of a strong economy!

This comment to a story in The Economist sums it up for me: even the party supposed to be competent on the economy is clearly struggling to get us out of the mess and I can't see whatever muddy mess of a coalition/minority government that we end up with, will be stopping playing party politics long enough to actually form a coherent plan and deliver any better...

I suspect the damage to the wealthy Western countries has gone much deeper than we yet know and our time as the 'winners' in the global economy has ended and we're seeing a massive equalisation of wealth across the world.

I think it'll become clearer over the next 20 years or so that we reached our peak standard of living and economic superiority in the noughties (and even that was based on massive amounts of consumer debt). In terms of sharing global wealth this is surely a good thing but I don't think we're going to enjoy the experience, having grown up with more than we'll have in the future.

When house prices (an illusion of wealth) correct, the amount of debt we're carrying will become clearer - which will be rather uncomfortable for many.

"Why are the Conservatives’ economic record and leadership strengths not yet translating into a lead?"

1. Because their "economic record", such as it is, is based on pumping newly-printed money into banks - the same banks that caused the credit crunch. This has inflated property and stock prices but has by-passed the ordinary voter entirely. Tory's USP is supposed to be economic competence. Fail.

2. The Conservatives are traditionally the party of national security. The Tories plan to cut defense spending to 1.8% of GDP, below the 2% NATO says is necessary to defend Europe from Russian neo-imperialism. Fail.

3. The Tories make clucking noises over Putin's aggression in Ukraine (a country to which NATO gave security guarantees) but welcomes oligarchs and their money to the City. The document photographed on it's way into No.10 to the effect that sanctioning Putin would be bad for business and should be avoided gives the lie to Cameron's bluster and makes him appear a mere creature of the City. Fail.

4. Giving a short-term boost at the cost of long-term damage to the balance of payments by selling the family silver (Eurotunnel, Hinkley Point, HS2, NHS) to foreigners - in some cases foreigners who have no love of Britain (China) - is a wrong thing. Fail.

For me it is the same shite all over again but in different location, time and space ... making me completely full of shite.

Therefore, whatever govt is in power they are usually full of shite ...

🙄

thegreatape - Member

or my police Scotland OH.

It's something of a paradox that I can't for the life of me imagine how this organisation could be made any worse, while at the same time having no doubt whatsoever that it will be.

How about Scottish fire and rescue an a par if not worse than police Scotland

I don't doubt it, it's pretty much happened in parallel hasn't it.

In terms of pounds in my pocket I've never had it so good! But that's only half the story.

In reality the company is cutting everything back to the bare bones, then shaving the bones. The second round of redundancies in 12 months is currently in it's final phase and there's talk of a third wave in August. Everyone's holidays over the summer have been cancelled (we're all appealing), we're all working ridiculous amounts of hours (half my take-home pay is overtime), we're losing contracts continuously and the normal working day has gone from 9 to 11-12 hours (pretty much maximum driving hours over a week). The contracts we do have are all trying to negotiate a lower price for the same, or more, work. The maintenance of company vehicles and buildings is practically 0 and people that aren't being sacked are leaving in droves. I've got very little free time, lucky to get out on the bike once a week where I used to be out 2-3 times quite easily (no kids or wife) and my friends hardly see me. When they do they always comment on how I'm tired and not my normal self.

During the actual recession it was all fine, no loss of work and it was business as usual. The cumulative effects mean we're paying for it now.

does seem to have avoided it so far, but over next few years it is going to get it in the neck.

Funding has remained the same so a real terms cut, but its the increase in pupils thats the problem. Big cut in funding per pupil. In 3-5 when the increase really kicks in to swcondary schools we wont have the room for them unless something is done now.

O&G here its only just beginning for us.

Just back from the north sea and the mood off shore is shite, some companys doing mandatory 2 week shut downs and forcing employees to submit holidays for it .

Others going equal time and making whole crews redundant,

Other service hands having offshore bonus rates slashed and in some circumstances removed all together.

Mean while our companies are recording record cash surplus levels.... Media playing right into their paws.

How ever many offshore guys have no choice but to bend over and take it as the big bimmer/audi infront of the 400k house doesnt pay for its self.

No. The company I work for has just sold itself to another bunch of venture capatalists.
Even more cuts to follow. 🙁

Yes.
Earning more, working less.
No debts, house paid off, no kids to pay for.

And again, household income has doubled (admittedly this is mainly the GF, mine is still less but I changed industries and am still on a steep learning curve*) and no debts.

* I'm assuming I'm not flat lining 😀

To be fair, her income is sourced from international work so can benefit from growing economies.

It never actually began for me. OK, so at one stage my house was in neg equity, but that was part of the long term plan, didn't affect anything directly and was expected mostly...

The wages have gone up, bonuses have been paid etc... it's all good 🙂

Difficult to tell, for me. I bailed out of the UK and am making much better money in Hong Kong. I don't think the people I now work for had a recession though.

🙂

I assume that brooess is correct though. We're into a sustained period of limited global growth with comparative stagnation and low inflation in the West, which is going to be hard work as there's so much debt around.

Trail_rat, O&G really grinds my grist, Record profits for years and now a drop in profits, but still IN profit. Jobs cut, see ya, we've got a profit to maintain. Suits take record pay outs everyone else suffers.

Yet tax bills cut (are all the due taxes paid or just part). Grrrrrr.

Yes i know it's probably more complex than that but still. Grrrrr

The recession is over for the better off in London and the Home Counties, which is all that matters really.

Record profits for years and now a drop in profits, but still IN profit

As far as the north sea is concerned you'd be surprised at many aren't in profit at the moment.

Jobs cut, see ya, we've got a profit to maintain. Suits take record pay outs everyone else suffers.

Money moves around the world for the best return. That's no different to any other business. Costs have to be cut, and needed to be cut anyway, in the North Sea.

Yet tax bills cut (are all the due taxes paid or just part). Grrrrrr.

Only on North Sea production, and most companies have production throughout the world. Also tax rates are still well above what would be tolerated by any other business.

Yes i know it's probably more complex than that but still. Grrrrr

Yeah it is bit more complex than you are making out.

Never been better here, however I do live in London so it's to be expected I suppose.

EO in civil service here. I am taking home £31.75 more per month than I was in April 2010.

I hadn't realised how lucky I was.

Funding has remained the same so a real terms cut, but its the increase in pupils thats the problem. Big cut in funding per pupil. In 3-5 when the increase really kicks in to swcondary schools we wont have the room for them unless something is done now.

Post-16 education wasn't protected, so we've been on a downward funding trajectory since 2010. We made some staff redundant immediately and people who've left for other reasons have only been replaced it absolutely unavoidable (which sends to be never for support staff). All of us have an extra hour of contact time, so are doing 5% more work. Plus no pay rises and the pension changes.

And these will be the "good old days" soon. We're in a very good financial position compared to most sixth form colleges but I think some just won't exist in a few years.

Much more complex

Im talking about service co's - baker/hallis / schlum /weatherford not operators.

I agree with the tax cuts to operators in north sea - gonefishin covered it pretty well.

But thats a whole other thread

People no longer prepared to 'do it themselves' but get a tradesman in instead as they have more money to spend?

Alternatively, renters don't update and repair landlord properties.

The recession is over for the better off in London and the Home Counties, which is all that matters really.

I'm not convinced about that - I'm in London and whilst many have work and are getting well-paid and there seem to be plenty of jobs going, I'm not sure it's going to last. It just doesn't feel right - the optimism seems to contradict all the data - US slowing down, China slowing down and dropping interest rates, India dropping interest rates, a lot of the money in London is foreign money and could leave at a moment's notice, housing unaffordable even to the well-paid middle classes reduces the spare cash in your pocket...

That the Tories are having to play games to keep the economy looking ok (repeated tricks to push house prices up for e.g.), looks like an admission of defeat to me.

I think any optimism is mis-placed... in London as anywhere else

This is very dependant on where in the country you live and what industry you are in.
For me location wise I've lived in 2 relatively affluent areas in Bristol then Cambridgeshire which haven't been affected that badly.
Work wise I'm on my third job since 2008, I was made redundant from the 2nd job as the company wasn't doing so well and the shareholders expected constant growth. Now I'm a consultant / contractor with my own Ltd co earning twice what I was at 2008 so personally I'm much better off.
Mrs CD has changed from being a residential care manager to a social worker in that time and has to face the consequences of the recession and cuts every day.

Past generations have bought forward consumption and delayed payment

Current/future generations will face bringing forward payment and delaying payment

Voting for protest parties who pretend this cant happen wont change anything. Welcome to cold turkey time....

(despite the ONS good news today!!)

I helped out last month with a round of recruitment. In the South East, two of the top ten most unaffordable towns/cities in the UK (according to the Guardian study a few months back).

Two vacancies for support staff, £19k salary. We had to stop at 100 applicants. All had BA or BSc, most had MSc. Huge variety of experience and talent. I was staggered at the quality of applicant, it was an impossible task to shortlist, rough guess, 50% Weren't in employment.

Whatever the stats say there's a lot of people out there looking for work, competition appears to be fierce.

Neber really noticed it was here (on the personal level) to be honest. My main job is public sector, so yeah pay rises have been a bit low but it's an area that's pretty much ring-fenced so secure as anything.
My second income (snake oil salesperson & therapist) seems to thrive in periods of stress and uncertaintly so has increased to the point of me having to take on an assistant.

So carry on the good work HMG, I've never had it so good 😀

Yep. Just had a salary hike. 😀

(And paid off the mortgage).

Only scant progress in dealing with issue that caused slowdown

Stop sniping at the back. Your favourite chancellor is doing everything in his power to maintain a housing boom to keep the SE on side. There's no possible downside to stoking house prices with government subsidies. Oh no, none at all.....

Interesting question...

We made 2 project managers redundant last month, but also have vacancies for other positions.
The MOD gravy train is still rolling, as certain core projects (such as Trident) are effectively immune from cutbacks.
We're doing paid design work on the Trident replacement, which will secure jobs for the next 15-20 years at our place.

I appreciate that I'm probably not someone who fits the curve and I've possibly been lucky with some steps on the way, but I graduated in 2002 and initially struggled to find a job. However, since I got started about 6 months after graduation I've been constantly employed, had no serious risk of redundancy (although it looked like a vague possibility for a while last year). My salary has gone from an initial level to 3 times that level over this period, with bonuses each year in my current position and 5% pay increase this year.

I'll be the first to admit that the company I work for has changed massively, we are now owned by a Japanese parent company and a large number of people who were here no longer are. It's not always plain sailing but it really could be a whole lot worse.

I do seem to have been mostly working against the trend for this period though, something I'm quite happy about 🙂

footflaps - Member
Your favourite chancellor

Sorry, who's?

is doing everything in his power to maintain a housing boom to keep the SE on side.

Which I have criticised repeatedly including referring the main instrument of policy as "theft". Please "keep up" at the back 😉

There is significant downside in creating asset bubbles - recent history tells us that most clearly. The root of the crisis lay in flooding markets with liquidity and a time of artificially low interest rates. Sound familiar?

pictonroad - Member

Whatever the stats say there's a lot of people out there looking for work, competition appears to be fierce.

Yep, mostly what we're seeing is improvements in the technology of misleading unemployment stats tbh. 1 in 10 people are underemployed, a 33% rise on 2008, and on average the underemployed want to work an extra 11 hours a week- which basically adds a million people to unemployment stats, if you work in FTEs (about .7 million more than 2008) Splitting 2 jobs into 3 doesn't create a job. The number of full time jobs in the economy has fallen from 64% to 62%- only 35% of all new jobs created since 2008 is full time. The number of people working part time who want full time work has doubled to 1.3 million.

Half of recent graduates aren't in graduate jobs, up about 10%, youth employment is up, long term youth employment is up by a third, adult longterm unemployment is almost at record levels...

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All had BA or BSc, most had MSc. Huge variety of experience and talent. I was staggered at the quality of applicant, it was an impossible task to shortlist, rough guess, 50% Weren't in employment.

What do you expect, we're almost at the stage of giving away a BSc with Cornflakes! They're so universal now, it's no longer an effective differentiator.

Local paper today, school makeing 6 teachers redundant, another school also doing the same, car dealership closed last week management just locked gates 30 jobs gone, local morrisons shut down, B and Q to down size,2 more fire stations to close and one just shut.

I took a 15% pay cut for my new job,

I'm not feeling were out of it yet

However petrol is cheap, that makes a huge difference not just filling up the car, but keeping food and other prices low

Of course that's got sod all to do with the government , its those very rich guys in the dessert that run the show

Beginning of this year I had the best couple of months in ten years.. Then the work stopped, and I mean completely took an absolute nose dive.

I'll hold my hands up and admit I dont know what the hell is really happening with the economy other than say the only people I personally know still pulling in big bucks work in London. Banking and the BBC.

what the hell is really happening with the economy

We have a housing boom in the South East and London is still afloat with overseas cash, what more could you possibly want?

Our house is still worth less than we paid for it 8 years ago so I wouldn't say it's over for us yet!

There's some people with money who are in a pudding?

still pulling in big bucks work in London

housing boom in... ...London

Feels smug*

*At the moment anyway

What do you expect, we're almost at the stage of giving away a BSc with Cornflakes! They're so universal now, it's no longer an effective differentiator.

Rubbish.

It's probably more a case that there's less skilled work going about so people are looking for lower level jobs just to get a foot in the door.

Example - the operator job I'm in asks for 3 C grade standard grades (or GCSE's) as a minimum. Good luck getting in without an HNC. Similarly to get to engineer I need an HNC, my HND isn't enough and I'm doing a BEng to hopefully get moved up. We actually have folk with MEng's and even PHD's trying to get the operator jobs.

Rubbish.

Well we'll have to agree to disagree, with 50% of the population getting a qualification which only 5% used to get and no time for an evolutionary jump in intelligence, we've just lowered the bar by 45%.

As for a lack of skilled jobs, probably depends where you are, less so in the SE.

I wouldn't say that the qualification is any easier, it's more a case of people being pushed that way rather than onto more suitable paths. Not sure how old you are but I was certainly under the impression that if I didn't have a degree I would be doomed to failure for life. So, I ended up going to uni to do a course I didn't like, failed, did it as an HND instead at college (where I actually got my head around it) and a few years later decided I was ready to 'upgrade'.

You could use the argument that the degree is too easy as an excuse for over provision but that's just attacking the symptom rather than the cause (and is a very lazy argument IMO). Besides, anyone who actually has a degree knows that's only half the battle, you could have the best degree going but it often means sod all without relevant experience to back it up. Hence going for lower tier jobs to build experience.

And perhaps geography comes into it. But I know there's no way I'd be moving south for a % rise in wages and several fold increase in living expenses.

David Cameron has presided over an economy with the weakest productivity record of any government since the second world war, the Office for National Statistics said as it revealed output per worker fell again in the final three months of 2014.

...

The ONS said productivity decreased by 0.2% in the third quarter of the financial year, leaving output per hour worked little changed on the previous year and slightly lower than in 2007, before the UK’s longest and deepest modern recession.

“These estimates show that the absence of productivity growth in the seven years since 2007 is unprecedented in the postwar period,” the ONS said.
...

The ONS figures show that with workers producing less than they did in 2007, Britain’s productivity gap with its major economic rivals, such as the US, Germany and France, has widened.

Weak productivity has been the flipside to strong employment growth, since the increase in the number of people working has not been matched by the hourly output of goods and services they have produced.

Up until the global economic crisis, the efficiency of UK workers tended to increase by around 2-2.5% a year. Had that trend continued, productivity would have been 15% higher than it was before the recession.

An alternative measure of productivity, output per worker, showed some growth in 2014 as a result of employees working longer hours.

“This still isn’t great - productivity [growth] has still not even returned to its long-run average rate of about 2%, let alone recouped any of the shortfall relative to its pre-crisis trend,” said Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics.

The ONS said that despite Britain’s poor productivity, businesses were keeping their costs in check by keeping a lid on their wage bills.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/01/uk-productivity-growth-is-weakest-since-wwii-says-ons