[Closed] Is Peloton really worth $8bn?

I know it doesn't mean a damn thing in this context but isn't it losing a tonne of money?

Sounds like a bubble that’ll burst before too long

It does seem excessive. For a company that is loss making.

And I can’t help but think all the advertising we have been seeing is as much for the benefit of the ipo as to increase sales.

The key to the price is can they retain existing customers and continue to grown. Or is it just a fad. I lean towards the second n option but I very much doubt that singletrack forum users are the target market

$200m loss on $1bn revenue last year.
The IPO documents reckoned that they have a potential US market of 45 million households and globally 67 million. Just can't see it myself.

IPO's are about raising capital for the founders, not primarily making profit for investors. Their initial offering is more linked to what they think they can get away with than what it's worth. See Aston Martin;

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/28/aston-martin-sets-aside-30m-for-brexit-as-revenues-rise

So no, I don't think Peleton is worth billions.

Could I interest anyone in some tulips?

Is the draw of getting individual health performance metrics of rich Americans??

Is the draw of getting individual health performance metrics of rich Americans??

Only if you have a time machine.

We are not really their target, so whether anyone here has one and likes it probably isn't hugely representative. I know people with it who love it, they wouldn't otherwise be riding bikes.

I know it doesn’t mean a damn thing in this context but isn’t it losing a tonne of money?

I took a look at the analysis of their S1 and if I recall a lot if not all of the losses are due to very high marketing costs currently as they try to grow new subscribers, the plan over time would be that this marketing investment reduces as it's cheaper to retain existing customers than attract new ones, making it profitable. This is quite different to a lot of tech IPOs where they don't make a profit any which way you cut it.

 I very much doubt that singletrack forum users are the target market

Exactly - go to any spinning class and I'd wager there will be a bunch of regulars who would never even consider actually riding a bike. They're likely to be paying around the same monthly cost for their classes as they would for Peloton, so they "just" need to be convinced that the up front cost is worth it to bring the gym to them and give them more flexibility over when they want to do a class.

Of course then they still need to fund the penthouse apartment or luxury basement to stick the bike in.

I think this was discussed previously on another thread?
Anyway, I spent a fair bit of time humming and harring about joining. The wife wanted me to join so she could use it as well.
In the end I decided it was for less serious cyclists as it was all HIIT related. In the end I bought a Watt Bike and Sufferfest membership. Probably also going to go down the Zwift route as well.
Financially, it was a lot more than what the Wattbike and suitable cycling specific training app/memberships cost. But I can see the benefit/sales pitch for people who want to use it for their workouts rather than joining a gym or Spin Class.
I also am a member of a Gym (David Lloyd who have Watt Bikes and Spin Classes) and a "trendy" spin club in London (1Rebel). The 1Rebel club is expensive, I no longer do the monthly subscriptions as I'm only in London 3 or 4 days a month, so its £18 per session. I think 7 day a week membership is about £250 a month. Which is comparable to Peloton over time. I'm also an infrequent user of Athlete Lab in London, this is cycle specific, individual session is £30 and 10 sessions is £240. David Lloyd with Watt Bikes is £130 per month and this allows me to use other gyms (excluding sone in Central London).
My Wattbike is approx £1600, Sufferfest is £12 (ish) per month.
I think given the price, Peloton is targeting a specific market. I don't think actual cyclists who want structured training will use it. There does appear to be a lot of folk who can afford it.
Hopefully the above gives some comparable price points rather than just the usual Three Thousand Pounds for a spin bike!

Only if you have a time machine.

Huh?

Never underestimate the size of the clothes hanger market. After all, everyone wears clothes.

See WeWork... not a chance, just chancing their luck.

CFH - love the reference there. Good work

I know little about the system in truth but it looks a little primitive in the adverts?

What I mean is, the huge screen etc looks great... then the user has to take a hand of the bar to twist ye olde resistance knob. Seems primitive in this age of smart trainers.

See WeWork… not a chance, just chancing their luck.

The weirdest thing about WeWork is it's not a new business model and there are public comapanies doing the exact same thing you can compare and contrast with; all of whom are valued considerably lower....

CFH – love the reference there. Good work

It was a stealth add, he's still trying to offload them from 1637...

What's up with a turbo trainer in a cold damp garage - ruddy snowflakes! 🙂

Only if you have a time machine.

Huh?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

EDIT Just realised I quoted the wrong text, should’ve been Flashy’s tulips. Anyone got a time machine?

I thought you was just being surreal eddie!😆

Those London gyms are expensive!

I got to the PureGym, and it's £21 a month - and that lets me use other ones too.

Financially, it was a lot more than what the Wattbike and suitable cycling specific training app/memberships cost. But I can see the benefit/sales pitch for people who want to use it for their workouts rather than joining a gym or Spin Class.

You're talking London prices for upmarket gyms - undoubtedly the kind of disposable income Peloton's target market should have - but is that really going to get them 45M clients in the US / 67M worldwide?

Some more interesting reading here

1.4m subscribers and 400k bikes sold.

Just think of the amount of unused rowing machines and exercise bikes there are in households already. I appreciate that there is a market for this but no where near the size required to justify the valuation.

What's the churn on users? Is it in the IPO docs (I work in a bank and we're not allowed to look at such things)

I'm guessing low-medium based on the entry point of the machine you need to buy (+ the custom cedar platform looking out through your picture window onto the forest). $40 a month probably isn't that much if you've spent $3000 on the toy.

What's the profit point on a new user? How long does a user have to subscribe before peloton see a profit. edit: I see the article mentions $5, that sounds like BS...

I can't see the figures, but it does seem a little high.

 potential US market of 45 million households

There are 130 million households in America - they are seriously suggesting they will be in 30% of US households?

Just think of the amount of unused rowing machines and exercise bikes there are in households already.

Tell me about it, the wife bought a spin bike which sat in the workshop for years having been used less than a dozen times. Total PITA, weighed an absolute ton, so really hard to move out the way etc. Finally managed to get rid of it this year....

Bloody massive exercise bike in my garage - MIL 'gave' (insisted we take it) one to us about 10 years ago - been used about twice. Me, I'll stick to real bikes, or a real bike on a Smart Turbo and Zwift

Can anybody point me to the earlier Peloton thread with the pictures of millionaire numpties in their loft apartments? I've done a search on STW but can't seem to find it.

you'll find it on twitter. I did by searching for the most memorable words: half gay architecture husband

this was all pretty much covered in the previous thread. It's aimed at the "city spin" market - where I guess it's actually pretty well priced comparatively - not at people who like to ride bikes. Cannot see it lasting long term; I guess it hinges on how long the current spin craze remains popular (or how long they can hemorrhage money before the investors pull the plug!)

Nah, it's very fashionable at the moment in certain circles but they'll be onto the next thing soon and their market will shrink to it's true level. I don't think they have anything unique to offer.

in the IPO docs (I work in a bank and we’re not allowed to look at such things)

That's a bit strange ..... the P stands for public !!

their market will shrink to it’s true level

There will be a booming market in second hand Peleton bikes though...

I think it is almost certainly overvalued like a lot of these things - Aston Martin for example. Equally though it is not aimed at cyclists but fitness enthusiasts. My reading of various reviews suggests that if you’re into that kind of thing the quality of the bike itself isn’t great, but the classes can be quite good. So their hardware could be a bit of an Achilles heel, but it is the subs where their profit will be if they can keep adding users at a good rate...

I don’t think they have anything unique to offer.

They will sell advertising on those screens, that's why they're so huge.

Just imagine, a captive audience of high net-worth individuals. That's easily worth $8Bn.

This article might be of interest. Its not really an isolated thing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-unprofitable-ipo-record-uber-wework-peloton/

I did by searching for the most memorable words: half gay architecture husband

Yet another sub niche I knew nothing about!

This article might be of interest.

Nice read, I think this explains a lot..

"With mega-banks, the capital is not really anybody’s money who you’d need to talk to in person and say, ‘I’m really sorry,’” Wallace said.

£2k is a lot of £££, but compared to other aspirational fitness purchases, a C2, waterrower, 105/carbon road bike, multigym/squat cage and weights, it's at the high end of the same ballpark. And unlike most of those there's a cat in hell's chance of being allowed to put it in the dining room rather than the shed.

If you break it down to a basic bike (~£500), Tacx Neo (£1000), mini-pc (£300), TV (£300) it's about the same price as the hardware required for Zwift. Zwift just has the advantage of the target audience already having the bike, and TV, and maybe PC, and functioning at the entry level with a dumb trainer.

I got to the PureGym, and it’s £21 a month – and that lets me use other ones too.

They're clever though, to put it bluntly you can only use other gym's north of your home town as it's restricted to gyms with a lower monthly fee than your own. So I could use the ones in Liverpool on a work secondment, but if a colleague did the opposite trip to Reading they couldn't (unless they joined the Reading gym).



 

If you break it down to a basic bike (~£500), Tacx Neo (£1000), mini-pc (£300), TV (£300) it’s about the same price as the hardware required for Zwift.

Not really, a basic smart turbo is under £500 and you can use the phone / iPad you already have....

What’s up with a turbo trainer in a cold damp garage – ruddy snowflakes!

what's up with a riding a bike on a cold damp road bloody snowflake ! 😉

Not really, a basic smart turbo is under £500 and you can use the phone / iPad you already have….

And if you quote the next sentance too I pointed out the advantage zwift has is the entry level option (dumb trainer and an old laptop) which is basicly no cost.

But the point was that plenty of "cyclists" are happily paying similar sums of money to ride on zwift. How much does 30sqft of your shed cost 😉🤣 ?

What’s the churn on users? Is it in the IPO docs (I work in a bank and we’re not allowed to look at such things)

Yes, although there's been some interesting analysis of the impressively low 0.7% reported.

https://twitter.com/QuisitiveInvest/status/1166462153500569601

This IPO is exquisitely timed to occur just before lapses can really kick in from the phasing out of the 12-36 month lock-in subscription periods, per p. 67 of the S-1. So some large chunk of the historical "subscriptions" weren't even eligible for cancellation

EDIT - click on the twitter icon to see the full thread.

Interesting, The other day a friend of mine who's a keen roadie and Zwifter said he was considering getting a Peloton bike and sub for his missus as she'd had a go on his watt bike with zwift and her first comment was "It's not like a spin class"... Then He looked at the price of a Peloton bike and it becae a rapid "Nope".

I just don't think their business model works, the cost of the kit (which is actually optional, but they give the impression you need their bike), plus the Subs, just make it prohibitively expensive (IMO). They're never going to make the sales to match the valuation.
They are not really insulated from any competition, there are similar alternatives already out there, perhaps more focussed on "serious cyclists" but all a potential competitor needs to do is offer a similar service pitched more towards an aspirational "General fitness" market, without pushing £2ks worth of proprietary hardware or an expensive £300-500 p/a sub and they'll take the game...

Getting up and running on Zwift has cost me a grand total of just over £100. I just use a semi-smart TACX trainer, which is fine for me. I put a road tyre on my old hardtail, already have an ipad, and a spare telly. Jobs a good un!!

The FT comments section is offering a tutorial on how to short the stock!

But it's also got a few people for whom £2000 is worth it not to have to faff with Zwift, unreliable turbo trainers or gym membership.

But it’s also got a few people for whom £2000 is worth it not to have to faff with Zwift, unreliable turbo trainers or gym membership.

Yep, but there's not 46m of them!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49776849

It's only "worth" that much in stock valuation.

I love the hype in these situations. It’s a bit like this Forestal bikes thing on the front page. “Biggest bike company you’ve never heard of” despite never shipping a unit. It’s all about PR, build support and increase corporate value.

I always thought the biggest company most people hadn’t heard of was some bike builder like Merida but it seems not.

Strange days.

Could I interest anyone in some tulips?

And some land in Panama to grow them on.

The FOMO is strong in Wall St at the moment. They'll get burned again soon enough and we'll all have to pick up the pieces (Again).

CFH has it.  It is clearly worth it but not to me or anyone I know

I think ‘trendy’. Well targeted ads, celeb endorsements, at the absolute peak of value right now.
But like any and every indoor in-the-home exercise equipment, interest will wane, something else will come along for those types that follow trends (Fitbit anyone) and eBay will be overrun with static bikes with a tablet attached in a year or so.
They’re doing a jogging machine next! 😂

Massively over valued.

I’m not a big runner but do have a treadmill for occasional winter use. I’ve only just realised you only need a 30 quid footpod to run on zwift so I’m going to give it a go. Again, it’s 30 quid not 2 grand!

Down 11% on day 1.

$100m down. Hopefully not from my pension.

Can I just say how pleased I am to see folks getting that reference!

The FOMO is strong in Wall St at the moment. They’ll get burned again soon enough and we’ll all have to pick up the pieces (Again).

Ben's smashed it. I work in the industry and if one made a splash and I missed, it'd be me on the block.

That being said, this is a dud.

Haven't they just been landed with a $300m lawsuit for the unlicensed use of music?

Could I interest anyone in some tulips?

Do you accept bitcoin?

I got it as well CFH.

pump and dump?

Continues to fall...now down to 6.7bn