[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

yougov seat estimates. https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ suggest it could be possible to keep the tories out, theoretically. Think there´s something new they are trying with the methodolgy behind their maths here though, so fairly experimental in their approach, remains to be seen if it plays out.

fairly wide confidence intervals if you hover over the seats though.

I read earlier that yougov dont account for low youth turnout (which seems odd) so its probably Maybot all the way

Wow... that yougov seat estimate site says nick clegg is going lose his seat to labour. Wel he's my mp and l I'm voting labour rather than green this time so maybe that's possible but it's a huge change if it is. It's the only non labour seat round here and was Tory prior to being lib dem...(pre 1992)

Jamba?

Let's be honest.... nobody has got a bloody clue what's going to happen. Check out tomorrows headlines in the Tory press. They certainly don't! They're bricking it and desperate!

Those pesky voters keep playing silly buggers with this whole democracy lark at the moment, don't they?

If Corbyn has done anything - and prior to 6 weeks ago he'd done less than nothing - it's been a joy to watch him put the fear of God up the Maybot, the Tory party and their media attack gods. That smug, arrogant, complacent 'huge landslide' 20 point poll lead certainly seems like ancient history now! 😆

[quote=kimbers ]I read earlier that yougov dont account for low youth turnout (which seems odd) so its probably Maybot all the way

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/

not true

Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old.

Looking at estimates from past elections from the House of Commons library, in 2015 the turnout gap between young and old was 35 points, in 2010 it was 23 points, in 2005 it was 36 points. In other words, we’re showing a smaller gap than in 2015, but similar to 2010 and not one that we think is totally unrealistic if Jeremy Corbyn has enthused younger people.

the posts accepts pollsters are using new models so no one is sure which one will turn out to be the most accurate

agree that corbyn has done a great deal to energise the electorate it remains to be seen if he has had any impact on the PLP.

She may be gone shortly in any case - her base are not impressed and neither it appears are her MPs... leaking this story this evening

Why Theresa May Could Be Damaged Even If She Wins U.K. Election

[url] https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-07/why-theresa-may-could-be-damaged-even-if-she-wins-u-k-election [/url]

My parents would vote for a gerbil if it was a Tory and they're not sure about May at all and given that it's the Tory activists like them who select the MPs who then vote for the leader, they will make their feelings known if they're not happy with her...

So one possibility is they'll shift May at some point either depending on the results of this election or the path of the Brexit negotiations.

If they do, you'll know that the Tory party clearly only care about their own needs and sod actually leading the country through a crisis, and we'll also be the laughing stock of the world, losing two Prime Ministers in a matter of a year or so over what is essentially an internal madness about Europe, dragging the whole country through their own internal schism

If Corbyn has done anything - and prior to 6 weeks ago he'd done less than nothing - it's been a joy to watch him put the fear of God up the Maybot, the Tory party and their media attack gods. That smug, arrogant, complacent 'huge landslide' 20 point poll lead certainly seems like ancient history now!

Effect of the media being forced to give equal time to both sides during a campaign?

https://theconversation.com/broadcast-impartiality-rule-has-helped-labour-to-achieve-biggest-poll-shift-since-1945-78949

Effect of the media being forced to give equal time to both sides during a campaign?

I wonder how different the UK would be if we had a more neutral press. More balanced social views, generally more global in our outlook, less bigoted, less divided, remaining in the EU etc?

Hopefully social media will kill the nastier elements of our press and remove their influence from our national conversation...

i have always found it strange how regulated the tv and radio is and yet how free to print total BS the "free " press is

i think they should be governed by the same rules and they can have positions but what they say has to be grounded in fact rather than polemic and diatribe

i think they should be governed by the same rules and they can have positions but what they say has to be grounded in fact rather than polemic and diatribe

Which is what Leveson is supposed to move us towards and look what May wants to do with that...

It's very very hard not to be cynical about whether the UK really is a paragon of a liberal democracy or just a pretend one...

Thank God for social media.

I think it is equally capable of making us all live in an echo chamber and only read/see the "news" we agree with.

sun sitting on the impartiality fence again [img] [/img]

Well I wouldn't expect anything else from the Sun.. there is a reason the billionaire media moguls are on the side of the Tory party and it has nothing to do with the national interest.

I think that front page deserves a complaint to IPSO (for all the good it will do one May opens up "freedom of the press" and throws Leveson out).

That cover tells of just how rattled they are. This was meant to be a stroll, wasn't it? No need for any of this? Easy.....

Whatever happens tomorrow, it seems the democratic debate has moved in a direction that a foreign (booooooo!!!) billionaire tax avoider doesn't like very much

Oh.....

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I am expecting a disappointing result - 80 - 100 majority.

I am looking forward to once again realising I am in a minority in this country and realising most people on this rock (and planet it seems) disagree with my views.

Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years

Or, more succinctly:

Looking forward to having my faith in humanity hoofed in the slats again.

Well it will make Australian PM swap seem more resonable. Anyone work for Pickfords around London?

[url= http://newsthump.com/2017/06/07/isis-supporters-planning-to-wreak-havoc-on-uk-by-voting-tory/ ]ISIS to claim credit for Tory Victory[/url]

The Tory party appears to have mixed feelings about this new intelligence.

“Well, on the one hand, it is troubling news,” said a spokesperson for the party earlier.

“On the other hand, votes are votes, and we’ll take anything that helps us cling to power, so we welcome our new IS supporters. Death to the left-wing infidels!”

Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years

Small consolation that you don't agree with/aren't? fooled by Murdoch or Dacre

Vote early, vote often and vote Labour.

Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years

Being on the losing side isn't a guarantee of being on the wrong side.

Would you really want to be on the same team as the Daily Mail and Express? I'd take a lifetime of "losing" before that!

[quote=kimbers ] Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years
Small consolation that you don't agree with/aren't? fooled by Murdoch or Dacre

Yes, it seems that independent thought and the ability to analyse information for motivation, bias and veracity are also in a minority in this country.

[quote=piemonster ]Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years
Being on the losing side isn't a guarantee of being on the wrong side.
Would you really want to be on the same team as the Daily Mail and Express? I'd take a lifetime of "losing" before that!

It's like being knocked off your bike by a car driver who made a mistake. You might be right but you're still in hospital and they're at home making up lies to their insurance company about what happened. While munching oven chips with gravy. Hospital food sucks.

Well I've put my x the box, futile gesture that it is!

The only thing that, as always, this election will show is the antiquated and undemocratic voting system that we have. Unfortunately we blew our chance to change that.

Cassetteboy vs Theresa May

I had to sit with my brexit loving tory voting in laws at the weekend and listen to them moaning about how much food had gone up.
They are notoriously penny pinching and I actually sat there and smiled.
You voted for it you ignorant ****s.

i have always found it strange how regulated the tv and radio is and yet how free to print total BS the "free " press is

I guess it's because TV is beamed into homes without any control. Whereas a newspaper is a go out and purchase scenario.

The Sun are simply there to sell papers, they'll support whichever party they think will win.

dragon - Member
The Sun are simply there to sell papers, they'll support whichever party they think will win.

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I had to sit with my brexit loving tory voting in laws at the weekend and listen to them moaning about how much food had gone up.
They are notoriously penny pinching and I actually sat there and smiled.
You voted for it you ignorant ****.

But.... but... they've taken back control.

The election campaign coverage has been so all-encompassing, and then with the terror attacks, that 'Brexit' seems to have become a sort of abstract concept.

But now I'm thinking 'Shit! This is when it really all does go seriously tits up!".

May is going to win. And we'll literally be diving straight into Brexit negotiations. But she, and the team of idiots around her, are so obviously ill-equipped to deal with this massive incoming shitstorm, that for the first time in my life I'm wondering if I need to start looking to a future somewhere else other than this country

Voted in every election since I was 18 in 1980 but the first time I voted for a winner was when I was 35, in the 97 devolution referendum.

yourguitarhero - Member

Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years

Losing side maybe but that doesn't mean wrong, any more than winning a vote makes you right. Obvious Godwin but there's plenty of people out there who'd have switched their vote to NSDAP in 32 and patted themselves on the back for winning

So, what are our definitions of success/failure going to be?

For the Tories it's a high bar to start with, a win isn't enough, I reckon that a majority of less than about forty will be seen as a huge failure for Theresa and her leadership of the party.

For Labour, what demonstrates failure for Corbynite/Leftist rather than Centrist/Blairite policies? What happens if, for example, they win less seats but a bigger vote share, will people cling on to that as an endorsement of radical leftist policies?

I reckon that a majority of less than about forty will be seen as a huge failure for Theresa and her leadership of the party.

Anything close is a voctory for Corbyn's lead but I'd suggest he needs to be steering towards the next candidate at the next election taking it hard to the Tories in opposition.

For the Tories it's a high bar to start with, a win isn't enough, I reckon that a majority of less than about forty will be seen as a huge failure for Theresa and her leadership of the party.

For Labour, what demonstrates failure for Corbynite/Leftist rather than Centrist/Blairite policies? What happens if, for example, they win less seats but a bigger vote share, will people cling on to that as an endorsement of radical leftist policies?

So, what are our definitions of success/failure going to be?

who cares the government always gets in 😉

more important is dogs at polling stations !

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For the Tories it's a high bar to start with, a win isn't enough, I reckon that a majority of less than about forty will be seen as a huge failure for Theresa and her leadership of the party.

May has tarnished her strong & stable reputation, does mean that when the compromises come for brexit & her comptence matches that of her time as home sec & during this campaign the knives will be out any increae in vote share will be good as it would presumably neuter the more rabid right wing elements of her party 50+ extra seats and she will be sitting pretty for a while, 100+ and shed be safe as fk

For Labour, what demonstrates failure for Corbynite/Leftist rather than Centrist/Blairite policies? What happens if, for example, they win less seats but a bigger vote share, will people cling on to that as an endorsement of radical leftist policies?

ironically the manifesto is hardly radical relative to many european countries, but a big loss and it will be sold that way by his enemies
If the polls are right he can say look, I went from a 20 point deficit to just 7 and his policies will have some protection from the 'red tories'
I think a bigger vote share is possible, if the just loose in some key marginals but the cosmopolitan youth vote turns up it could well work that way

the question then remains will those young labour voters become more tory as they age or will the OAPs that have dumped brexshit and another tory government begin to die off and see things shift left for the next election/ref in [s]5[/s] [s]3[/s] 2? years time

the question then remains will those young labour voters become more tory as they age or will the OAPs that have dumped brexshit and another tory government begin to die off and see things shift left for the next election/ref in 5 3 2? years time

I think less so than previously. Younger people will age without the benefits of free university education, good workplace pensions and affordable housing.

I had to sit with my brexit loving tory voting in laws at the weekend and listen to them moaning about how much food had gone up.

No you didn't, you had a choice!

Younger people will age without the benefits of free university education,

unfortuantely the less educated you are, the more likely you ar eto vote tory/brexit etc

those old tories know how to keep the plebs in their place!

unfortuantely the less educated you are, the more likely you are to vote tory/brexit etc

Complete bullshit again.. your hypocrisy is staggering. 🙄

Klunk - Member

No you didn't, you had a choice!

Complete bullshit again.. your hypocrisy is staggering

except, facts........

http://metro.co.uk/2017/02/07/if-you-voted-for-brexit-youre-not-going-to-like-this-6433145/

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/demographics-dividing-britain/
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any response ocb ??

too slow

Complete bullshit again.. your hypocrisy is staggering.

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Oh I see, a poll and some misrepresentation, very well played. Crack on hypocrite.

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theocb - Member
Oh I see, a poll and some misrepresentation, very well played. Crack on hypocrite.

ermmm, thats not the apology I was expecting

If you could provide some more reasoning, thatd be great

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Surely that just shows that older people, who we [u]already[/u] know are more likely to vote conservative, are less likely to have done A levels or gone to university - perhaps because, well, fewer people did A levels or went to university when they were younger? (Indeed, leaving school with no qualifications and going straight into a job or apprenticeship aged fifteen was pretty common back in the day)

LOL at theocb. When in a hole and all that.

ninfan - Member
Surely that just shows that older people, who we already know are more likely to vote conservative, are less likely to have done A levels or gone to university - perhaps because, well, fewer people did A levels or went to university when they were younger?

ninfan - Member
Surely that just shows that older people, who we already know are more likely to vote conservative, are less likely to have done A levels or gone to university - perhaps because, well, fewer people did A levels or went to university when they were younger?

even controling for age it still holds true

http://www.statsguy.co.uk/brexit-voting-and-education/

[quote=ransos ]Younger people will age without the benefits of free university education

Even so, more of them will have had a university education, even if they've had to pay for it - that's just comparing the current generation to mine which is way off retirement age yet.

[quote=kimbers ]ermmm, thats not the apology I was expecting

😯 - I was expecting nothing less than further brain dead abuse

Is Brexit support a reliable proxy for Conservative/Labour Kimbers? I reckon Tony Benn wouldn't say so.

Since I know you like to stick to the facts, ninfan, the original comment was:

[quote=kimbers ]unfortuantely the less educated you are, the more likely you ar eto vote tory/brexit etc

Is Brexit support a reliable proxy for Conservative/Labour Kimbers?

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At least the 5% UKIP remain vote is there to make us all smile

Is Brexit support a reliable proxy for Conservative/Labour Kimbers? I reckon Tony Benn wouldn't say so.

So what, Tony Benn would have been one of the people in the 35% of Labour who wanted leave.

Do you think all supporters/members of a party agree on all things 100% of the time?

They will do under the boot of Chairwoman May. 😉

Is Brexit support a reliable proxy for Conservative/Labour Kimbers? I reckon Tony Benn wouldn't say so.

Commentators/jurnos observed that some of the Leave vote was a anti-establishment vote. From what I've read Labour are trying to tap in to some of that anti sentiment and pollsters are suggesting that some UKIP supporters are coming back to Labour.

Might explain why UKIP are campaigning for people to vote Tory in certain seats.

For Labour, what demonstrates failure for Corbynite/Leftist rather than Centrist/Blairite policies? What happens if, for example, they win less seats but a bigger vote share, will people cling on to that as an endorsement of radical leftist policies?

I think for Labour, unless things go very badly wrong in the next 24 hours they can chalk this one up as a win, the Tories called a snap election because all indications showed they'd win, and they'd win big - why else would you 2 years into a 5 year 'fixed' term? But Labour have given them a real shock, they closed the polls dramatically, but as we've seen polls have been wrong before.

I think it's mostly a moot point though, I would think it's pretty unlikely he'll step down if he loses, not after 20 months or whatever it's been and 'momentum' has positioned itself well enough to ensure he won't be pushed and he can't and won't move to the centre.

I think the only way he'll step down tomorrow if he loses would be on the grounds that he would be 73 or so at the next general election and fight that hoping to be PM until 78

When he does finally step down it'll again been time for Labour to decide what party they want to be, they spent the 80's and half the 90's being lead by well-meaning, principled Socialist leaders and they lost, again and again and got nothing done.

In the 90s and 2000s they compromised, and made real changes to peoples lives.

In the 90s and 2000s they compromised, and made real changes to peoples lives.

That assumes that the compromises they made then would work now. For one thing, they were based on a booming economy.

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(not that there's much of that going on in here)

partisan dog
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is that an anti lib dem poster ^^ ?

To answer the OP I think yes.

What again? We get to do it all again in 6 weeks?

unfortuantely the less educated you are, the more likely you ar eto vote tory/brexit etc

those old tories know how to keep the plebs in their place!

So this was meant as a complimentary comment towards those working class types who lack formal qualifications? Or did you use a tiny snippet of the yougov poll to have a snidey dig at the 'gullible working class thickos'?

I suppose if you had said the tory vote is dominant across all types of formal education you wouldn't have been able to fit in your plebs dig

Exit polling suggesting she's really screwed up.

igm - Member
What again? We get to do it all again in 6 weeks?

Hmmm. I may have been correct.

No