I know elements of this have been discussed on the Venezuela and Donald Trump threads, but it seems to be growing legs and I think it perhaps merits a thread of its own. Although I dearly hope it fades into obscurity rather than turning into an epic like the Ukraine thread. For obvious reasons.
A few months ago, I might have written off Trump's comments about Greenland, as him just vocalising the random thoughts in his head. More recently, other members of his cabinet are joining in the rhetoric and Stephen Miller said it was "the formal position of the US government that Greenland should be part of the US". There is more and more chatter from the MAGA loons about this every day and it seems to me, to be gaining momentum.
It seems incredible that we are even having this conversation. It would have been unthinkable a year or two ago, but such is the descent into chaos and lunacy radiating from the White House that it now seems possible. Where do you see this going? Sadly, I CAN see the current US administration occupying and annexing Greenland as part of the US. Against the will of Denmark, Greenlanders and most of the rest of the democratic world. No one can realistically stop them, but it will be the final nail in NATO's coffin, US - European cooperation and any residual international reputation the US was clinging on to. Putin will be massively encouraged by the collapse of NATO and Europe and the World will become even more dangerous and unstable.
I really, really hope my pessimism proves unfounded.
Do we really need a separate thread about every country or region which Donald Trump would like to include in his new American empire? Perhaps just one thread would be sufficient (ie the original one)? Or how about we combine the Trump, Ukraine, Venezuala, Greenland, various threads about nuclear war etc into one geopolitics thread where all the STW armchair generals, diplomats and doom-mongers (like myself) can do their work in bringing about world peace?
Do we really need a separate thread about every country or region which Donald Trump would like to include in his new American empire? Perhaps just one thread would be sufficient (ie the original one)? Or how about we combine the Trump, Ukraine, Venezuala, Greenland, various threads about nuclear war etc into one geopolitics thread where all the STW armchair generals, diplomats and doom-mongers (like myself) can do their work in bringing about world peace?
If you are being serious (it's hard to tell), I think we do. The DT thread has over 32K posts and the Ukraine thread over 22K. Those combined with all the others would be a pretty humongous and difficult to navigate thread. Just my view, more than happy for this to be shut if no one sees any value in it 😊
I think the press is going ham on this one because its the most exciting, not the most likely. OFC the US *could* take greenland, but the price would be huge. It's nothing like the venezuela situation where most of the world just looked at its shoes. I think it's hot air and attention farming.
The only motive can I can think of is from a geopolitical / economic (exploitative) perspective because I can’t think of any military objective that can’t already be achieved through NATO. Our only hope is there’s enough non-hawkish generals and admirals in the DoD(DoW) to stall this long enough that Trump is further incapacitated by his physical and mental impairments, which frankly can’t come quickly enough.
The only motive can I can think of is from a geopolitical / economic (exploitative) perspective because I can’t think of any military objective that can’t already be achieved through NATO.
I doubt Trumps motives extend much beyond colouring in a map in a way that's more visually appealing to him.
If you are being serious (it's hard to tell), I think we do.
I'm never serious on here, you should know that by now. 😉
Honestly though, other forums I'm on manage to discuss this stuff on just one thread, it's only STW where we feel the need to separate discussions into ever smaller sub-topics.
Yep, it wouldn't be for strategic reasons, the US already has a base there and previously had several more. They've been given pretty much free reign to deploy assets and build bases there in the past and I'm sure this would have continued with little controversy if they'd been less hawkish. So why do they need to take it over?
Greenland has huge mineral reserves. I think Trump just sees dollar signs and hears "kerching" when Greenland is mentioned. Plenty of pickings for him and the rest of the US oligarchy if they did wade in.
I think the press is going ham on this one because its the most exciting, not the most likely. OFC the US *could* take greenland, but the price would be huge. It's nothing like the venezuela situation where most of the world just looked at its shoes. I think it's hot air and attention farming.
Columbia / Cuba / Panama on the other hand...
Realistically what would the "World" do if Trump annexed Greenland? Militarily there is really nothing to stop the US doing it. Would trade or diplomatic sanctions do anything other than harm the countries carrying out the sanctions?
I guess living in the "west" we are kind of used to the US being the good guy. The so called "Pax Americana" where the worlds only superpower largely followed the rule of international law and used restraint in how its power was deployed.
But maybe that was all a lie. If you lived in Afghanistan, northern ****stan, Syria, or countless places in Africa that have been subject to multiple drone strikes you'd probably think the notion the the US were the good guys holding up freedom and international law was a sick joke. Maybe now that countries like Greenland are in the frame everyone now starts to realise that the US, certainly in its current form, are not the good guys.
I think Iran is most likely as the next strike. You can see how much Trump has enjoyed this, I bet he has been shaking his button mushroom franticly at the thought of his next attack.
It will be worth observing how much traffic comes and goes from US air bases in the IUK and Europe, how much "hardware" is being moved aroundover the next weeks.
Realistically what would the "World" do if Trump annexed Greenland? Militarily there is really nothing to stop the US doing it. Would trade or diplomatic sanctions do anything other than harm the countries carrying out the sanctions?
It'd be the end of NATO and European arms sales for a start. There would be a huge diplomatic cost, which you wouldnt get for the other items on the list.
Honestly though, other forums I'm on manage to discuss this stuff on just one thread, it's only STW where we feel the need to separate discussions into ever smaller sub-topics.
Personally I think its useful - I've long given up on paying regular attention to the mega threads, but a Venezuela and Greenland thread are useful for those of us who are interested in the geopolitical situation but not obsessed with everything that happens in trumpland or the specific tactics of the Ukrainian conflict. I don't use any other fora where politics is welcome, but most fora don't just have 2 categories: bike / chat.
What’s the price for Trump or anyone else at the heart of the current administration? Losing influence, cooperation and trade elsewhere doesn’t worry them if they really are focussed on the idea of a bigger USA, with subdued/controlled neighbours that can turn its back on Europe, Africa, Asia etc. They can make themselves a bigger pond, where they are still the big fish. If they can also destabilise everyone outside their new bigger USA they can look like the protectors and stabilisers back home. Just like Putin.
The diplomatic cost of regime change in Venezuela is nothing/penny change. The diplomatic cost of invading Greenland would be onerous, even for the US.
What remains of the sensible wing of the Republican party needs to hang on either till May when the Democrats will win enough seats to become relevant again, or when the effects of Trumps advancing dementia/heart disease/TIA/Stroke becomes so much more obvious, he either carks it, or 25th amendment, whichever is the sooner, and all of this shit goes away.
Every outcome results in them being a slightly bigger fish in a smaller pond though. Being one of the biggest fish in an open world is very different to being a slightly bigger fish that is cut off or has limited access to everything else.
It would be an idiotic move by the us but i would not be surprised if it happened
The diplomatic cost of regime change in Venezuela is nothing/penny change. The diplomatic cost of invading Greenland would be onerous, even for the US.
Do they still care about diplomacy, or what the rest of the world thinks? They're antagonistic to and demeaning about Europe, Canada etc. Trump has openly said he thinks NATO is past it's use by date so wouldn't care if a Greenland invasion ended it. I honestly can't think of a single country in the world who has any influence over them, or who they wouldn't walk all over to get something they wanted.
Being one of the biggest fish in an open world is very different to being a slightly bigger fish that is cut off or has limited access to everything else.
If they have most of the Americas either part of the USA, or controlled by them, they have the resources they need to hold all small countries elsewhere to heel… and other than Russia and China the idea is to divide and destroy all other trading blocks. Their influence is different rather than diminished if they can more easily threaten all the little countries with embargos and aircraft carriers without as much self inflicted harm by doing so (as they are much more self sufficient in resources).
It will be worth observing how much traffic comes and goes from US air bases in the IUK and Europe, how much "hardware" is being moved aroundover the next weeks.
Already some chatter about extra flights in and out the US bases in the last week or two, but may be just fishing for clicks
It would have immense costs to the US, likely they would have zero military bases in Europe anymore. No access to allied airspace or intelligence.
I can't see it, but then with that lunatic who knows
He's been very clear about plans for a western hemisphere area of US control. He could very well do something daft with Greenland. If he does, we have to take the Maga US* out of NATO and close their European bases. That leaves us exposed "if" Putin opens a second front, but I'm not sure he has capacity.
Can Canada isolate Alaska and close the land borders? Trump really doesn't want to underestimate the crazy Canucks.
*I guess a future US may return to sanity, but it's more likely to splinter.
I wonder how many in the US are starting to think this?
Although it's a very mixed bag overall, there's a chunk that seem to be repeatedly "nudged" further and further along an ever more extreme path, whilst still thinking the world they see is just the same as it was.
Each time something happens, they find a way to justify it and take one step further.
There's at least one greenlander who has his gun primed and cocked for the American invasion, on a hifi forum I'm a member of he posted his collection of rifles with a hand written note - "Just try it you yankee ****s - we look forward to burying you in ice"
Needless to say his pic was quickly deleted by the moderator (its an American based forum) but apparently its got his town rather riled up
Only under Trump could an absolute loon like Stephen Miller and up as the White House deputy chief of staff.
He's absolutely unhinged! Completely and utterly mental! He was literally rubbing his hands with glee talking about the prospect of annexing Greenland.
They really, really want to do this, don’t they? 😳
But where is Obama etc in all this? why arent they more vocal on USA apparently going rogue?
The democrats are a busted flush, especially with the way they supported Israel and their breaking of international law so trump is merely carrying on regardless
Honestly, It's silly to suggest they don't. The deafening silence internationally - and most importantly from inside Venezuela itself tells the US that everyone is totally fine with what's just happened. Hell, even Maduro had Cuban bodyguards so it's not like he couldn't guess what was going to happen to him. This is miles and miles and miles away from invading Greenland or Canada, or anything like it Despite what Trump thinks
Did you see the reaction from his administration after Trump said they going to 'run' Venezuela? they were clearly all ad-libbing, Trump is going to become more and more of a liability as what remains of his brain confabulates shit from thin air. At some point in the near future, he's either going to shit/piss himself live on TV or keel over. Trumps days are numbered, I will bet 50p and a fondle that all this crap stops sooner then he's gone cold.
Que the TV in the morning saying that the US have indeed; invaded Greenland... 🤣
Trump makes a play for Greenland, likely part carrot and part stick... the carrot simply to give the illusion of choice to Greenland. Denmark will be included in the negotiations about as much as Europe is over Ukraine's fate. Ie. not much at all.
I think that this whole annexation business is going to be a real sticking point for the US. The assumption is that the military will go along with it, but Senator Mark Kelly has already demonstrated that calls for prosecution for "sedition" are empty threats. SecWar is going after his pension administratively, rather than prosecution for a crime. He's naturally going to fight that https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/05/politics/pentagon-cuts-mark-kellys-retirement-pay-punishment
Greenland isn't Venezuela and the grounds for any kind of invasion are tenuous at best and military leaders can't pretend otherwise. Prosecution for sedition? Nope. Drug trafficking? Nope. Mass migration to the US? Nope. Russian advanced weapons? Nope. Necessary for the defence of the US? Nope, we already have bases there. Rare earth minerals? Nope, they've already offered to sell us minerals, etc.
Canada. Do we want a massive collection of "liberal" states that won't vote Republican? Nope
The only one that is a possibility is the Panama canal zone.
I'd agree that imperialism rather than rules leads to war, just look at the last two world wars. The possiblity of China taking cues from the US on Taiwan, leading to a confrontation between the US and China is a scary thought.
EDIT War also leads to mass migration, exactly what the US administration is dead set against.
"silly" or not, when they are openly turning their backs on alliances, talking of a new Monroe Doctrine, mocking and deriding Europe and Canada etc. I see no evidence that they GAS of what anyone else thinks of them. Yes it would cause turmoil and a huge diplomatic upheaval if they invaded Greenland, I just don't think they care if it gets them the natural and strategic resources they want.
I enjoy your posts and normally get a lot from them. Hope the condescension was a one off! 😋 😉
What remains of the sensible wing of the Republican party needs to hang on either till May when the Democrats will win enough seats to become relevant again, or when the effects of Trumps advancing dementia/heart disease/TIA/Stroke becomes so much more obvious, he either carks it, or 25th amendment, whichever is the sooner, and all of this shit goes away.
I dont think all of this goes away with trump unless the democrats manage to sort themselves out and win the presidency back but even then the damage Trump has done means things are different now , possibly for ever . Plus I dont think Trump is the ideas guy , it's the people behind him that are really dangerous. Trump was just the face and personality that allowed them to get into power .
It feels dramatic to say it but the world is changing and not for the better . Trumps America feels like it's military power allows it to project its will across the world without consequence and Greenland is part of that .I took stephen millers comments to mean that they dont need to invade as such as they are now so powerful that they can just make demands and will expect them to be met in a way similar to a big kid demanding a little kids lunch money.
What remains of the sensible wing of the Republican party needs to hang on
Sensible wing? That ship sailed a long time ago. There’s nobody left in the Republican Party that isn’t part of the cult. They’re all just varying degrees of insane
What remains of the sensible wing of the Republican party needs to hang on either till May when the Democrats will win enough seats to become relevant again,
3rd November, unfortunately. Could all be smoking rubble by then
Despite UK and European governments not saying anything - it's very much out there now with pretty much all UK news saying the obvious; USA can't be trusted and UK need to develop their own independent defense.
As Sky News point out. The UK, as are many European countries, are highly dependent on USA for every aspect of defence from nuclear deterrent to guidance for missiles.
How long realistically would it take for UK & Europe to develop their own defense?
Not just defence. Modern infrastructure is completely dependent on US companies. The latest being the rush to put everything in the cloud that has entrenched our status as digital vassal states. What would be left working if they pulled the plug on our access to their tech?
But where is Obama etc in all this? why arent they more vocal on USA apparently going rogue?
Obama threatened Germany when they considered opening prosecutions for the CIA agents who kidnaped a German citizen from the streets of Munich and renditioned him to the middle east because he had the same name as a wanted terrorist.
The US has long been an imperialistic bully, the fact that European leaders have spent decades decades submitting to their export of neoliberal economic fascism has left us all worse off. Trump is going further but he is still playing the same game as the US has done for decades.
The difference is that Trump and Co don't care for diplomacy or soft power, they could genuinely wake up in the morning and just go all-in on Greenland with no warning whatsoever. They could just as easily forget all about it and go after another target for no apparent reason too. Until Trump is out of the White House, his team are disbanded and someone is in there who is sensible enough to start unpicking the damage the world is a much more dangerous place. Not imminent danger but a gradual erosion of any sense of stability.
PArt of me sort of hopes he does try and go for Greenland as it may well be the final straw for the rest of the world to go 'Enough' and actually do something about it.
PArt of me sort of hopes he does try and go for Greenland as it may well be the final straw for the rest of the world to go 'Enough' and actually do something about it.
i genuinely don't see what though
America could shut down our military and the internet that our country runs on tomorrow
