The thing is, though, Russell is really firing on all cylinders. He’s beaten all his teammates, whether that’s trouncing everyone at Williams or edging ahead of a 7-time champion. He’s clearly getting the most out of the Merc at the moment (ok, Silverstone was a gamble that failed, but why not?) and has pretty much put a lid on the occasional but significant errors of old. He’s still getting better and better. Kimi is close on a good weekend, albeit still definitely behind, but he’s had some bad weekends lately.
Toto has a tough choice to make if Verstappen joins. With George he gets two top end drivers who are both performing at their best, but with the risk of fireworks. With Kimi he has a clearer 1-2 relationship but a question mark over whether Kimi will deliver in 2026.
McLaren and Ferrari both have two very strong drivers each. Mercedes might need the same. Honestly right now I think George is the better choice to keep. I suspect Toto sees it differently though, and he’s probably slightly better at this than I am 😂
I'd agree with that. Russell and Max aren't the best of mates, although I think any animosity is massively overhyped by a media with nothing better to talk about. And I don't believe the assertion by some that Max doesn't want a competent teammate who might beat him; Max loves a fight, and I reckon would relish a proper battle like that. I still think Max would be the better of the two over a season, but Russell would be a bit closer than Perez was. Both would be able to help develop the car toward winning the WCC, which is the team's prime goal.
Max will be at Merc next year.
Then the Verstappen group must be desperate, and at the very least Toto should be able to get Max for a knock down price.
TBH; It smacks of desperation on both sides.
For the last 4 years Merc has demonstrated in plain sight that it doesn't understand these aero rules, doesn't understand it's own car and cannot correct the problems that it has. It's own world class driver has left in desperation, it's had 4 years and it's still fourth best behind RB, Ferrari and Mclaren. Hoping to get Max to join them is a last ditch attempt to get someone - anyone who can drive around the issues the car has more consistently that either Hamilton or Russel could achieve in a desperate bid not to become the next Williams.
For Max; forcing Horner out and still jumping to Merc makes zero sense - you go from a car that has (at least) had a decent foundation, that you understand, that you know the team, that you now finally have more control at, that finally might correct some of the issues that it has, to somewhere where there is another 'Top Man' that still won't be at all interested in your Dad's opinion about anything, and the car is still shit.
Toto is admitting that it doesn't rate Antonelli or Russell, and knows the car isn't going to improve significantly in the next rules changes, and Max is admitting that it was never really about Horner's control freakery, it's just a Hail Mary to try not to become another stat behind Hamilton's domination.
For the last 4 years Merc has demonstrated in plain sight that it doesn't understand these aero rules, doesn't understand it's own car and cannot correct the problems that it has.
It's been widely acknowledged that in 2026 the balance will switch back from essentially being an aero formula back to being an engine formula. And Mercedes know a thing or two about building a good engine.
There's also the doubts about new Ford/Red Bull Powertrains engine - if that engine blows Ferrari, Mercedes and Honda out of the water at their first attempt I'll eat my underpants!
Red Bull is in a bit of a state at the minute so Mercedes may look like a stable environment and one he can scrutinise what's happening with Aston Martin for a couple of seasons.
For the last 4 years Merc has demonstrated in plain sight that it doesn't understand these aero rules, doesn't understand its own car and cannot correct the problems that it has. Its own world class driver jhas left in desperation, it's had 4 years and it's still fourth best behind RB, Ferrari and Mclaren.
I disagree. Some weekends they’re second best; some third or fourth. Ranking the Red Bull is tricky: is it a top-three car that’s consistently had terrible drivers in the second seat, or is it now a midfield car that Max, and Max alone, is casting in a favourable light? Meanwhile Mercedes seem to finally have a drivable car this season and are mainly just suffering from tyre management in warm conditions; of the front teams it’s Ferrari who seem to have the greatest aero struggles.
Hoping to get Max to join them is a last ditch attempt to get someone - anyone who can drive around the issues the car has more consistently that either Hamilton or Russel could achieve in a desperate bid not to become the next Williams.
No, it’s an attempt to get the best driver in the business in one of their cars. It’s incredibly simple.
Any team principal who writes off their engineering team and relies on a better driver as a “last ditch” attempt to arrest a slide down the points table is not going to last long in the job, and Toto’s hardly in that category.
This is especially true when a massive rules change is on the horizon and Mercedes are the favourites to produce at least the best engine and possibly the best complete package.
For Max; forcing Horner out and still jumping to Merc makes zero sense - you go from a car that has (at least) had a decent foundation, that you understand, that you know the team, that you now finally have more control at, that finally might correct some of the issues that it has, to somewhere where there is another 'Top Man' that still won't be at all interested in your Dad's opinion about anything, and the car is still shit.
Except that Max has apparently been telling the team for ages that their car development has been going in the wrong direction, and it seems they’ve not been listening. Why not find another team who are more prepared to listen?
Toto is admitting that it doesn't rate Antonelli or Russell, and knows the car isn't going to improve significantly in the next rules changes
I don’t know how you infer either of those things. Max is like Ferrari: when they call, you answer. There is not a team in the paddock—not even McLaren or Ferrari—that wouldn’t at least review its seating arrangements if Max walked into the motor home and said “I want to drive for you”. The fact is that Max is perceived as the best driver on the grid, by some margin, and also brings a lot of attention, which brings a lot of sponsorship. Teams want championship points, which means they want the best drivers in their cars, and right now Max is seen as the best.
It’s just not as complex as you’re making it out to be. Teams want the best drivers, and drivers want the best car. And that’s it.
Teams want the best drivers, and drivers want the best car. And that’s it.
And yet they haven't called me as either a designer or driver. Makes you wonder, huh?
from essentially being an aero formula back to being an engine formula.
One of the biggest changes for 2026 is the movable rear and front wings (the X and Z modes) while the reliance on ground effect is reduced, it's still going to be a major component, especially as the mechanical grip from tyres is going to be reduced (thinner tyres both front and rear) and don't forget; McLaren already has a customer Merc engine. It's still going to be mostly about aero, and Merc simply isn't as good as the teams it competes with in that arena. Hywell Thomas (who runs the Brixworth engine plant for Merc) has said that the engine is pretty much a blank sheet start, despite the continuation of the V6 turbo-hybrid, in an interview he said;
"It is a complete tear-up, which I don't think was quite as apparent to me as it should have been as we were setting out the regulations"
There's no guarantee that Merc will be dominant force that it's previously been.
Teams want the best drivers, and drivers want the best car. And that’s it.
Oh sure, I don't disagree with the sentiment. I just don't think that having engineered the removal of Horner to presumably make RB better suited to your needs*, moving to Mercedes where you won't have that sort of control makes any sort of sense. Plus I don't think the Merc is either currently or is going to be (in 2026) the best car, certainly not any better then the RB, and Verstappen - like everyone else, must know that's currently the McLaren, and you'll have noted that Zac Brown hasn't made any moves to attract Max to Maclaren Presumably the Vertsappen's know that Zac Brown is going to say "I have Piastri and Norris, thanks" but Toto hasn't said that about Russell and Antonelli...
* I would bet money that when RB executives asked the Verstappens "what would make you stay?" the removal of Horner was one of the conditions.
Ouch! Just enough truth to really hurt 🙂
One of the biggest changes for 2026 is the movable rear and front wings (the X and Z modes) while the reliance on ground effect is reduced, it's still going to be a major component, especially as the mechanical grip from tyres is going to be reduced (thinner tyres both front and rear) and don't forget; McLaren already has a customer Merc engine. It's still going to be mostly about aero, and Merc simply isn't as good as the teams it competes with in that arena.
Maybe, but ground effect is not like “normal” aero. It’s extremely sensitive to the ride height, which constantly changes as the car accelerates, brakes, corners, rides bumps, hits kerbs, and so on. It’s hard to model such dynamic conditions accurately and you can’t reproduce most of them in a wind tunnel. Whereas conventional aero is much less sensitive to these things, meaning that not only is correlation better but it has less reliance on other aspects of dynamics, such as the suspension geometry, to bring it under control. The key aspect of the 2026 aero regs is not that aero becomes less important, it’s that downforce is generated by more easily modelled means.
There's no guarantee that Merc will be dominant force that it's previously been.
Of course. There’s never any guarantee. But the point in the context of Verstappen is that Merc are rumoured to have the edge when it comes to the PU, and the aero changes will ease the ground effect challenges that some teams have struggled with. On that basis McLaren and Merc look like the favourites, while RBPT seems to be considered an outside bet. And Max will know more about the reality of that than most. McLaren are probably the team least likely to bite Max’s arm off, and will remain so while they have a winning car and their driver remains non-toxic, whereas Toto has always been ready to hire him.
I just don't think that having engineered the removal of Horner to presumably make RB better suited to your needs*, moving to Mercedes where you won't have that sort of control makes any sort of sense.
* I would bet money that when RB executives asked the Verstappens "what would make you stay?" the removal of Horner was one of the conditions.
That makes a couple of assumptions.
Firstly that removing Horner was a direct result of an ultimatum from the Verstappens. Whereas it could be that Verstappen leaving has removed the last hopes that the team could continue in its current form and Red Bull want to just reboot the whole operation ready for next year.
Secondly that Max wouldn’t get preferential treatment at Mercedes as well. I think he would.
Time will tell…
My feeling, based on reading the opinions of F1 reporters, is that Max will probably stay with Red Bull to see how the 2026 car compares. McLaren are happy with the drivers they have so there's no other team that promises to be a major improvement over Red Bull. Best to wait for a year and see.
I think Horner's sacking was mostly just head office wanting to take the F1 team back under their control - it was set up and run as an independent business and I think others in the parent company thought Horner had too much independence. The engine program must have cost a fortune and is a big risk, plus the results on track have been pretty average for the last 12 months. Having the Verstappens and Helmut complaining probably didn't help, but I doubt that was the major factor in dumping Horner.
On that basis McLaren and Merc look like the favourites, while RBPT seems to be considered an outside bet.
And completely disregards whether Newey has had a lightbulb moment and the Aston will have some USP that will make it a rocketship.
Or Alpine. Or even Haas.
Such a big shake up could produce another Brawn. I hope so, that was a good seaon.
And completely disregards whether Newey has had a lightbulb moment and the Aston will have some USP that will make it a rocketship.
I think this is really what Max is waiting for - to team up with Newey and Honda again. But not jump in with both feet at the beginning or he could do an Alonso and end up being in the wrong team and the wrong time with a GP2 engine!
He's just got to choose whether to watch from the sidelines at Red Bull or Mercedes.
It seems like a safe bet that the Merc engine will be competitive, even if it isn't the absolute best. Red Bull and Honda might make competitive engines, but they're a gamble. Williams have two top-class drivers and their technical department seems to be doing a decent job, so they would be my pick to surprise next year. Alpine too, especially if they hire Bottas as the rumours suggest. But basically, I wouldn't be surprised if any of McLaren, Ferrari, Merc, Red Bull, Aston Martin, and Williams end up fighting for the championship next year.
There doesn't seem to be much being said about the Ferrari engine for next year.
If Max ends up at merc then it’s Russell who will be let go to make space. That’s a bad place for Russell looking at where the options are for him
There doesn't seem to be much being said about the Ferrari engine for next year.
My guess is that they'll be like Merc - unlikely to drop the ball like they did last time, safe bet to be competitive, wouldn't be surprised if they were the best. Merc and Ferrari have had stable engine programs, excellent resources, and loads of money. Honda basically shut down their program, then had to start again after transferring all the engineers to other things, Red Bull haven't developed an engine of their own, and Audi are starting completely from scratch. Merc and Ferrari have to be the safe bets on the engine front.
On that basis McLaren and Merc look like the favourites, while RBPT seems to be considered an outside bet.
And completely disregards whether Newey has had a lightbulb moment and the Aston will have some USP that will make it a rocketship.
Or Alpine. Or even Haas.
For sure, anything could happen. Alpine will have Mercedes power. Aston have Newey. Ferrari will benefit from lass ground effect dependency just as Merc will. Teams like Williams at the bottom of the table will have had a wind tunnel advantage: not just a lot more hours, but also arguably less to lose in using less of it for the 2025 car. It’s all up in the air but I think it’s fair to say that Red Bull inspire less confidence than the other three top teams.
Well, almost anything could happen. Haas won’t come out on top. A lot of things have to go a long way off course for a lot of people for that to happen.
I’m hoping that Williams catapult themselves up the table, and that’s far from impossible. I’m also hoping to see Hamilton in a car capable of regularly winning. Beyond those partisan thoughts, bring it on, it should be fun to watch. But there’s always a nagging apprehension that with a rule change one team ends up dominating for a couple of years. 2009 was the exception that proved the rule, because Brawn had no money for development so everyone caught up, but generally we’ve tended to see three or four titles on the bounce after a big shake-up. Which I don’t mind if the dominant team has two drivers who can and will fight: the 2014-16 seasons were packed with good racing at the sharp end.
...and no-one is mentioning Audi!
They may smash it with their new engine. 😀
They've certainly made strong progress with Jonathan Wheatley in charge.
But the point in the context of Verstappen is that Merc are rumoured to have the edge when it comes to the PU,
Mercedes had an advantage with their engine because they managed to maintain a higher compression ratio [than other engines] with very clever fuel management that included (but wasn't only about) variable intakes. For 2026, the engine management system is a fixed black box, the compression ratio is regulated [lower] and variable intakes are banned. For 2026 while things like the angle of the V, the stroke and bore are nominally the same, they are all brand new engines, none of the components that Merc currently use are transferable to the new cars.
I think Mercedes are going to be bitten again by these new regs. When the engines changed to the V6 hybrid, Mercedes won everything because it turned out their engine was a monster. I think that they realised that they only had to be there or thereabouts when it came to aero, because they didn't really need to think that hard, come the 2021 changes that came to bite them on the behind when they realised that they didn't have the capacity to understand what was happening like Newey did. I think Mercedes are hoping that they can build another monster, time will tell if they have or not
Adrian Newey was always very critical of the success of the Mercedes team essentially complaining that 'all' they did was have a more powerful engine. For next year that playing field is being levelled, Max must be desperate if he's jumping ship now, and not waiting for next year to see where the dice fall and organising a move for 2027, or maybe his convo's with Toto are about that, who knows?
...and no-one is mentioning Audi! Cadillac!
Got to be worth a tenner at the bookies 🤷
it’s that downforce is generated by more easily modelled means.
Mercedes have had 4 years to model the current aero, and they still don't understand why their car performs the way it does. In 2024 it abandoned a concept that they couldn't get to work well enough after 2 years, changed their design completely, and still didn't win anything and was routinely being thrashed by a customer team and ended up being fourth best. the new regs in the wind tunnel (especially the new rear wing) led to really over-sensitive front ends, and that's why they introduced the movable front wing, these are massively complex aero concepts, Mercedes have demonstrated (at the very least) that they're just not the best team when it comes to this.
In 2024 it abandoned a concept that they couldn't get to work well enough after 2 years, changed their design completely, and still didn't win anything and was routinely being thrashed by a customer team and ended up being fourth best.
Well they gave up chasing what, in the models, was the faster design theory as it was too sensitive to other factors.
They were beaten by a customer team because the latter had a 2 year jump on them in the design process.
Anyway, here's a possibility: Max stays at RB for 2026, Hamilton retires at the end of '26 allowing Max to go to Merc and Woody to go to Ferrari.
(Sorry if someone has already suggested that)
If some of you think Mercedes lack technical nouse - why did Horner have a hotline to the FIA to complain about the latest thing they came up with!? 🤣
Too high safety risk, Nick.
Today's useless stat:
Before The Impodiumable Hulk broke his duck at round twelve of the season the oldest person to stand on a podium in a Grand Prix this year was.............. Max Verstappen
Hamilton's race will be a glorified testing session, Ferrari certainly seemed to screw him over.
The BBC are still banging on about the Horner sacking, with Benson saying "I know things that I can't repeat." Really meaning "I know as much as you do"
Ferrari certainly seemed to screw him over.
He exceeded track limits and was excluded. That's on him, not the team. The car was good enough for 3rd on the grid.
It's a wee bit wet in the forest today
Hamilton, Alonso, and Antonelli have taken new power units. That might come back to bite them in the arse if the race doesn't start (which I assume will mean they take their penalties at the next race.)
The race will start.
Even if it's behind a safety car.
The race will start.
Even if it's behind a safety car.
Let's hope it's not like 2021 - another poor decision by Masi which added to the Abu Dhabi drama.
Sainz has also taken a new power unit. Starting from pitlane means those four can change the setup on their cars to suit the conditions.
It also means avoiding any first corner carnage
There was suspense till the end. Pretty much all you can expect from sports.
Starting from pitlane means those four can change the setup on their cars to suit the conditions.
Apparently changing the rear wing is a big deal involving quite a bit of work requiring more time than was available once it started raining.
So chances are they were all on their qualifying setup.
Hamilton‘s race will be a glorified test session - it went quite well didn’t it 😉😂
Controversial view but Spa needs changes IMHO to remain in F1. 2 very dull races over this weekend where been second on the grid was the place to be. It's a great historic track but if the race director won't allow the weather to play its part then the race generally ends up pretty boring.
Apparently changing the rear wing is a big deal involving quite a bit of work requiring more time than was available once it started raining.
Hamilton switched to a higher downforce setup, that's why he passed a bunch of cars early on but couldn't get past Albon when the track was drier.
Controversial view but Spa needs changes IMHO to remain in F1
Unless it's wet; Spa has always been a dull race.
Interesting the number of mistakes Lando made chasing Piastri compared to the mistakes P made while being chased.
I feel that Lando is possibly the quicker driver but that Piastri is the better racer. Both are pretty good at both to be fair. Can Lando get better and not making mistakes quicker that Piastri can push that little bit faster for the laps that count? I suspect this will be the theme for the rest of this season, and possibly beyond.
Lewis was having to lift and coast for most of the race - social medial reports suggest he was underfuelled for what essentially became a dry race (with Ferrari anticipating a wet race). So with a bit more fuel and a bit more right foot 5th was potentially on.
Lewis was having to lift and coast for most of the race - social medial reports suggest he was underfuelled for what essentially became a dry race (with Ferrari anticipating a wet race). So with a bit more fuel and a bit more right foot 5th was potentially on.
Yeah wouldn't be surprised. Also the Williams seemed to be quite trimmed out, was always going to be tough to get past that once the tyres Lewis' tyres had started going off. Brilliant drive though.
I don’t understand why the start was delayed. Surely if it was that wet the grid should have been on wets not inters. I’m being to wonder why they bother making them
