It's come to my understanding that excess deaths are at a 50-year high in the UK. This, I thought, would perhaps be due to the perilous state of our NHS. However, digging around, I find that this is also happening across the EU (particularly bad in Spain), the USA and AU. Further, I understand that the deaths are across all age groups, and not driven by a particular age group.
It seems like thousands of people are dying each week in the UK more than normal but there doesn't seem to be much investigation or concern about this. The fact it's happening in Spain, which does not have a poorly run and underfunded healthcare system, seems to suggest that while the UK situation is not helpful, it cannot be the primary factor. So what's driving these excess deaths?
Could be related to respiratory diseases. It was always possible that shielding ourselves (correctly) during the height of the Covid crisis would see an upsurge in such conditions when masks, distancing and other mitigations were removed.
Some of the UK figures are likely to be related to the cost of energy and food. I don't know how much these also factor in other countries.
Covid and the after effects of the pandemic and lockdown
I think the above, lots of undiagnosed or late diagnosis of illness during the pandemic and the effect of that is working its way through. I suspect there could be a few more years of that to come.
Of course I have no experience in this so looking forward to hearing some better placed contributors opinions.
It's a good theory, but I understand that most deaths are attributed to heart condtions, then diabetes I think? Regarding the other factors, most of Europe simply are not having to live in a permacrisis like the UK. But that's a different story.
@ myti: the stats take into account COVID, so on top of additional COVID deaths, we're still seeing high quite excess deaths, so it's not COVID-19 as that's been taken into account.
500 a week are dying in the UK as a result of delays in A&E according to those in the know.
Without the data source and details on inclusions and exclusions it’s not a very useful discussion.
Last year many countries showed declines in life expectancy due to Covid, but you say this data excludes those.
Actually, I thought this was for the year, but it's only for July; makes sense, the extreme weather was causing excess deaths in the south, although not sure what's going on with Iceland or Ireland!
ONS said yesterday that the increase in those dying at home was 23%. That is a significant increase and is likely due to a combination of factors.
Reluctant or unable to get primary care?
Delayed or late diagnosis leads to more severe disease?
Waiting list delay during and post pandemic?
A couple of thoughts - and not disputing the situation but would like to know further
1/ reports I read didn't say highest for 50 years, rather 'among the highest in the last 50 years - but substantially lower than Covid years'
2/ Is it an absolute number? General population is substantially higher than 1973 (56M vs 69M) and the spread of ages is that there are more elderly folk (who, let's face it, are the ones that die mostly) within that 25% larger population. So deaths will increase and even if the excess is the same in % terms above 'normal' the excess deaths in absolute numbers will be higher.
1/ reports I read didn’t say highest for 50 years, rather ‘among the highest in the last 50 years – but substantially lower than Covid years’
Isn’t is also going by total excess deaths, and not deaths per capita? Or was the article I read just being lazy?
I think you will find that most healthcare provision is struggling across Europe. Not just in UK.
Be careful of the comparator. Covid has rendered the rolling five year average rather biased. 2019 was not a bad year for mortality, whereas the winter of 2018 saw significant influenza (harvesting effect where people who might have died in 2019, died in 2018 from flu).
The single highest excess mortality ever seen in peacetime was April 2020, with double the normal number of deaths. I may run my previous analyses but as I said, one needs care with the comparator now (see that bump in the dashed line due to covid).
The excess deaths due to A&E is likely to be real based on actuarial analyses. More or Leas on Radio 4 features an analysis this morning. About one extra death for every 70-80 people waiting 12 hours or more. That gives about 400 extra deaths per week.
Vaccines innit 😉
not sure what’s going on with …Ireland!
The west of Ireland saw a few weeks of temperatures above 20degC and no rain. The shock was too much for a lot of people.
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Another news article here https://news.sky.com/story/excess-deaths-reach-highest-level-since-pandemic-peak-how-much-are-nhs-failings-to-blame-12780446
This was on Newsnight last night.
Increases in respitory diseases (as mentioned above), huge delays in medical diagnosis particularly for cardiovascular issues, huge delays in accessing treatments post diagnosis etc etc were the prime suspects but they were careful not to say it was certain
darcy, 26 degrees in South West Kerry is no joke.
darcy, 26 degrees in South West Kerry is no joke.
😂
You’re telling me! I imagine the death carts were working 24hrs!
The fact it’s happening in Spain, which does not have a poorly run and underfunded healthcare system
lol
It varies massively across Spain - pretty good here in Madrid, but very poor in rural areas.
There was a professor on LBC this afternoon who’d analysed the figures and suggesting a lot is down to circulatory diseases as a consequence of COVID, not just respiratory conditions.
Sadly, will no doubt will get used by certain elements of the media to support the narrative of the “NHS is failing” and why it doesn’t need any more money.
OK, that's by % of deaths above the average of previous 5 years which allows for comparison of whether things are getting better or worse. And the trend of an increasing population with a higher proportion of elderly folk doesn't change fast enough to muddy the picture that much.
Which makes it interesting that for 15 or so years excess deaths were below average and then in the last 10 or so it reversed and now we've had mainly above average, even if you pruned the 20-21 spikes.
I wonder what external factors might drive that? Did something change around 2010 or a year or two after?
Maybe we're just counting differently (and I don't mean decimal and imperial).
Some of the numbers must be related to Covid , although not from Covid.
People missing cancer checks as the hospitals were full of patients with covid.
Then people with say a cough , dont go to hospital as they dont want to catch Covid , so go on to develop Pneumonia. Which then knocks em down as they are 79 and a smoker.
Some of the numbers must be related to Covid , although not from Covid.
Agreed - but the trend from below the rolling average to above the rolling average was in effect before the Covid outbreak - for the last 10 or so years. If you smooth the graph, and correct for the Covid years then there is a distinct upward trend.
And in fact, since you are comparing the year in question to the previous 5 years..... if the trend is upwards then the average of the previous 5 years is also higher, so for the % above average to keep getting higher means the actual numbers are outpacing the increasing average.
Vaccines innit 😉
Actually I think we should break it down to segments where the tories were in power.
Tory government-excess deaths, yeah I can believe that.
Vaccines innit
I don't expect anyone on here to even consider it as a possibility. But it's a possibility
But it’s a possibility
Albeit a possibility not supported by a shred of evidence
Everything is fine in the NHS. Unless you know people working in it and listen to them. We’ve been running them hot for years now, when do we start listening to them and accept that there has to be consequences?
I don’t expect anyone on here to even consider it as a possibility. But it’s a possibility
I personally don't think vaccines will *cause* extra deaths - but I know opinions vary. There will I'm sure be a correlation (correlation =/= causation) between excess deaths and number of vaccinations made in the last couple of years but that's because so many vaccinations were made to prevent Covid deaths (and possibly now flu as well).
But that doesn't explain a trend that started several years before Covid and mass vaccination programs, what caused that.
Actually I think we should break it down to segments where the tories were in power.
Tory government-excess deaths, yeah I can believe that.
So obvious it feels too obvious, but I suspect there's something in that. If you wanted to push that narrative you could fairly easily point to the graphs (but once again correlation is not the same as causation) - even noting that the excess death trend didn't swap over in 2010, it takes a couple of years before the (lack of) support and investment hits.
If you draw a line through 1980, vertically.
Then mirror the graphs onto each other.
There is a weird correlation where the underperformed years marry up with the overrun years
I don’t expect anyone on here to even consider it as a possibility. But it’s a possibility
A likely explanation for that is that most people I suspect are now aware of someone they have known who has died from the effects of Covid, in contrast most people don't know of anyone who has died from the effects of the vaccine.
It's bound to influence their opinions. That and the lack of evidence of course.
Given our success as a species...........I don't think we will be running out of people any time soon unfortunately
TheArtistFormerlyKnownAsSTR
Full Member
Vaccines innitI don’t expect anyone on here to even consider it as a possibility. But it’s a possibility
No evidence for that. This discusses the reasons for Xs deaths.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-64209221
From that link:
'Finally, figures up to June 2022 looking at deaths from all causes show unvaccinated people were more likely to die than vaccinated people'
While this data on its own can't tell us it's the vaccine protecting people from dying - there are too many complicating factors - if vaccines were driving excess deaths we would expect this to be the other way around.
I don’t expect anyone on here to even consider it as a possibility. But it’s a possibility
By that logic,
Post-Covid respiratory & circulatory problems are certainly contributors but it's proving difficult to access anything really specific to prove the linkage yet, unless I'm looking in the wrong places.
This is a problem of the stats, I guess; post covid hangover effects can be a cause of or contributor to an early death, just like smoking is, or eating bacon butties every day for 50 years.
As always, there isn't one single right answer but instead it's a collection of factors altogether creating a swing to us being on the wrong side of the average line.
Actually I think we should break it down to segments where the tories were in power.
Tory government-excess deaths, yeah I can believe that.
Interesting that the graph above, from Piemonster, does back this up...
Interesting that the graph above, from Piemonster, does back this up…
It does appear to, doesn't it?
My first guess is we may be on a general downward curve still, post-Covid (and the knock-on effects of it).
It'd be interesting to map it against wealth equality / people in financial hardship as well, then map that against when the Tories were in power, obvs.
My gut feeling with our recent experience of GPs, hospitals and ambulances is it's a combination of...
- late diagnosis, and treatment of issues in the last 3 yrs as a result of COVID response. There was an interesting chart in one of the news reports showing new prescriptions for blood pressure meds had dropped since 2020, for example. This suggests more folks with undiagnosed/untreated hypertension than would normally be the case.
- tail of COVID, increased risk of CV issues?
- emergency services and A&E not meeting targets
The running of the health service under this govt is prob linked to some, if not all of the above
From that link:
‘Finally, figures up to June 2022 looking at deaths from all causes show unvaccinated people were more likely to die than vaccinated people’
yeah when you look at the numbers vaccinated deaths vs unvaccinated for all cause is about 4 x higher
but because 90% of the population is vaccinated, then unvaccinated ~ twice as likely to die as vaccinated
unvaccinated seem likely to die quite a bit younger too
-loads of things confound that because vaccination rates vary by age & ethincity etc etc
(*this is for adults, harder to see data for kids)
For the narrative that it is vaccine driven (to play devils advocate), anti-vaxxers seem to hone in on the fact excess deaths are up across all age ranges and the fact that the CDC (the US 'ONS' for health data) won't release data (or simply doesn't compile it?). Wouldn't any debate about excess deaths be put to bed by examination at the causes of death within the excess? E.g., if it was sucide making up most of the excess deaths in lower age groups, you might have a pretty good idea that it is a result of a mental health crisis and/or systematic problems in society, rather than people dying from alleged vaccine-related illnesses? Beyond the anti-vaxxer narrative, these excess deaths seem to undermine previous arguments for "lock down" measures as lifesaving measures. It would be interesting to (1) compare countires that had minimal or no lockdown measures compared to those with stringent ones, such as Japan (apparently also suffering from high excess in deaths), and (2) compare excess deaths to actual COVID-related deaths as way to guide future health policy and responses to future pandemics.
There's no probem with the health service in Pau but the crematoriums over the New Year were full to overflowing according friends with relatives among the dead. They're not especially Covid or flu deaths, just people dying of old age issues among the tiny sample refered to.
Albeit a possibility not supported by a shred of evidence
Well, there's about 60 recorded vaccine related deaths in the UK, one of which sadly touched the forum, so we have a definite number, and it's a vanishingly small number compared to the tens of millions of vaccines issued.
There's no evidence it's fuelling this rise in excess deaths
Beyond the anti-vaxxer narrative, these excess deaths seem to undermine previous arguments for “lock down” measures as lifesaving measures.
Not really, an overwhelemed health system in an unlocked down country would likely result in just the same issues
